swingin' the ftse: 2009

[tenbobtrader]

NDX

"if the high goes you have a swing low and continuation of trend in place on the strong one"

and if it does"nt


will sit on hands and see reaction from the old roof location



if it proves to be asbestos will attempt short via intra day

1414 - 1426 with Stop at 1438

1st Target 1390 - 1378 Stop to BE and possible add if opportunity presents

2nd Target 1354 1342



Andy

in in out out via intra day

BE the pair

Day close - narrow ranges / higher volume - All ! spooked me


will look again tomorrow intra day

trade well

Andy

 

[tenbobtrader]

flat no entries attempted

 

[tomorton]

I am long from Tuesday, short from Wednesday, so effectively flat but hoping to add to whichever breaks out, especially if downwards.

 

[tenbobtrader]

NDX

"if the high goes you have a swing low and continuation of trend in place on the strong one"

and if it does"nt


will sit on hands and see reaction from the old roof location



if it proves to be asbestos will attempt short via intra day

1414 - 1426 with Stop at 1438

1st Target 1390 - 1378 Stop to BE and possible add if opportunity presents

2nd Target 1354 1342



Andy

in in out out via intra day

BE the pair

Day close - narrow ranges / higher volume - All ! spooked me


will look again tomorrow intra day

trade well

Andy

flat no entries attempted

in @ 22.5

 

[tenbobtrader]

in @ 22.5

Stop to BE

 

[tenbobtrader]

Stop to BE

out at EOD - BE + a touch

Flat

 

[tomorton]

Is a counter-trend rally due? -
* FTSE RSI is very low
* P&F has reached bullish support line
* inverted hammer appropriately placed in downtrend yesterday
* we have reached early April high, possible support
* the US did not extend the recent low and finished strongly
* options expiry (on 17/07) is known to introduce volatility and false moves

If a bounce does occur I will not be going long as -
* weekly charts, daily swing chart and significant MAs completely negative
* FTSE closed on low of week
* S&P H&S continues to develop in text book style
* my performance in counter-trend trades is abysmal

Thoughts anyone?

 

[barjon]

tom

DOW was around 8100 on FTSE close and closed at 8147 which would lift FTSE to around 4150. If US futures (dow SB quote) hold Friday close level on Monday morning then FTSE should open higher and should play catch up if that open is below 4150.

From there it's DOW dependent. If DOW quote moves up I'll be looking to see if FTSE is trading strong or weak against it. If strong I'll be looking long.

good trading

jon

 

[tomorton]

Thanks jon. A lift to 4150/4200 would be fine, allowing me to add to my short as planned. A clear breach of 4242 could potentially back-date the swing low to 06/07 and would stop me out but I still would not reverse into a long from there, I would hope to resist that temptation until a clear breach of 4353.

 

[Splitlink]

Thanks jon. A lift to 4150/4200 would be fine, allowing me to add to my short as planned. A clear breach of 4242 could potentially back-date the swing low to 06/07 and would stop me out but I still would not reverse into a long from there, I would hope to resist that temptation until a clear breach of 4353.

I would agree with that, with the condition that a short trade should not be entered above 4260, just in case it keeps on going up, but when it returns to 4260.

Personally. I think that this is a bear market and am not keen on going long unless it is a morning's trading period, which is a different story and the one that interests me more these days.

So I could go long with a view to closing out at lunchtime. No decision on that until Monday morning

 

[tenbobtrader]

NDX

Both my short trades rotated back to entry and ended flat

wk tf printed narrower range on higher volume / high close from lows

return to watch mode, could do with a good wide range bar to sort it out one way or the other

 

[tenbobtrader]

Is a counter-trend rally due? -
* FTSE RSI is very low
* P&F has reached bullish support line
* inverted hammer appropriately placed in downtrend yesterday
* we have reached early April high, possible support
* the US did not extend the recent low and finished strongly
* options expiry (on 17/07) is known to introduce volatility and false moves

If a bounce does occur I will not be going long as -
* weekly charts, daily swing chart and significant MAs completely negative
* FTSE closed on low of week
* S&P H&S continues to develop in text book style
* my performance in counter-trend trades is abysmal

Thoughts anyone?

Tomorton

"Is a counter-trend rally due ? "

is this not the possible end to the counter rally ? NDX = fly in ointment

no what you mean Tomorton just pulling back to the 1/4 and month charts

think you could be pointing in the right direction and with the mother of all the trends (help if BOE turns off the funny money supply for good)


good trading next week whichever way your pointing

Andy

 

[tomorton]

As far as counter-trend rally is concerned, yes it depends on your time scale as to whether we are in a downtrend with possible rally coming, or in a correction in an uptrend.
I am taking the narrow and short-term view on this using standard swing chart - trend from 07/05 down.

 

[tomorton]

The week ahead -

We certainly caught a bounce this week, 160 points. Now, however, we seem to be entering congestion - will we tumble all the way back?

The FTSE made an almost perfect doji yesterday, though up on Thursday, it could not close above the 200EMA ,and is not pushing at the May-June highs. I also note resistance yesterday from an unfilled gap 15/06, 4394. Now I look at this week's rally, this is a candidate for a hole-in-the-wall gap which I had not seen in this light before. Alan Farley would suggest failure to close the gap is a high probability short.

The S&P is also falling short of the May-June highs, still can't escape its 200EMA, though closing just above, and is striking resistance from its January 944 high. The pattern yesterday resembled a doji here also, and was negative on the previous close and the day's open. Although this week's rally has been dramatic, I don't see it as killing off the H&S, in fact, not unless the head high is taken out, so I maintain the 800-810 target.

 

[SabreTT]

It didnt tumble before, it was a slow decline

 

[barjon]

Held long all week, but cleared most of it Friday.

DOW closed about 40 up from where it was at FTSE close so FTSE should open up a bit on Monday assuming no drama over the week-end - if it trades weak I'll close the remainder. See what you mean about the gap, Tom, but the break of 4352 took the swing trend back to up and a test of the key 4500 level wouldn't surprise although it would be heady stuff if there wasn't a decent reaction on the way.

good trading

jon

 

[tomorton]

True Jon, swing direction is now up and I can do no more than follow it for the immediate future, looking to enter long on a pullback this week.

Further out, if the upward move fails (and there is much overhead resistance), the S&P H&S is likely to be the dominant influence, possibly taking us down to the 3,700's. This game is never going to be dull.

 

[barjon]

.................the break of 4352 took the swing trend back to up and a test of the key 4500 level wouldn't surprise although it would be heady stuff if there wasn't a decent reaction on the way................

jon

Approaching the minefield, guys. Navigate with care

good trading

jon

 

[PokerBrat]

Has anyone mentioned the inverted H&S pattern that is emerging on the US markets? What do people think?

 

[tomorton]

Hi Pokerbrat - Yes, saw it on one of Oscar's recent videos. Its there alright, I find it hard to believe we can rally into a recession (though that's what we have been doing for over a week).