swingin' the ftse: 2009

Just to add to tom's. FTSE is always led by DOW (and US futures before DOW opens) so far as general direction is concerned, but it often trades strong or weak against DOW. ie: strong = FTSE goes up better than 1 point for 2 in DOW up moves and less than 1 point for 2 in DOW down moves.

There's advantage to be taken from that I think.

good trading

jon
 
think you will find if you do research

The Ftse very often is a forward indicator

regards morning fut in the USA, may be ok for intra day trades that are closed when move expires around dinner time

regards Swing entries .......... 7 out of 10 your best waiting

look at the morning USA fut and regard them as a gap open imho ... very often filled at the 2:30 open .....consider location ...breakaway etc etc

ftse swing entries as a result of above will very often be tested to death in the pm or into the evening (fut close 9pm)

imho its the worst index of the lot for swing trading it rotates for ever and marks up or down when the coast is clear :) the gaps are many times contra to the real move and the index will then trade the level until very late in the session before resumption of trend, many times after 4pm

effects Stops placement !

after USA open ... divergence as per Jon = ftse marking a pt for pt or reluctant to = plenty to be read into that, USA usually confirms the observed weakness or strength later in the session

I am refering to Ftse futures

do your own research and make your own mind up

Andy
 
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jonboy123 said:
to trade the FTSE, does one have to also analyse and study the USA market (DOW) also?
Ive noticed the FTSE get impacted at 2.30onwards by DOW.
Click to expand...

I've never met a professional trader that gets involved in the daily FTSE these days. However, some of the pros will dabble in options on the forward months, as I have myself. I am a full time retail trader and avoid the FTSE like the plague.

If you think that this is BS, please don't. The primary equities market, in Europe, is the DAX. After 13.30, trade the Dow, S&P, Russell 2k but, drop the FTSE from your list. It is erratic and, at times, completely unfathomable.

I know that many newbies come to T2W looking for the Holy Grail. My Holy Grail is never, ever trade the FTSE. I'm saying this in good faith and can assure you that the only people that ever made big £ from the daily FTSE were professionals, when it was pit traded.
 
thanks guys.

so do you look at dow and ftse charts in conjuction with each other?

USA futures before dow opens? how do i check the usa futures?

I hear DAX influences FTSE before 2.30pm.


alan: the other ftse thread here has a bunch of ftse traders kicking ass trading ftse.
the movements are big so good to make money, compared to equities.
oh sorry, daily FTSE? you mean day trading FTSE? or just genreal ftse short/long term trades also?


FTSE traders here:
May I ask what tools and indicators you are using for ftse trading?
Are these ok?:
- RSI
- MACD
- Stocastics
- Moving averages and support and resistance (obviously)
 
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HI alan -

I'm not a full-time retail trader so don't feel obliged to follow their rules. I am a swing trader and very much part-time, as a result, don't feel disadavantaged by trading the FTSE100. I suppose I am dabbling as they might put it so I guess we are not so far apart.

jonboy - Yes, I look at the UK and US charts in conjunction. It would be odd for a FTSE trader to ne be long on the FTSE100 when the S&P or Dow are showing Sell.
 
On US TA - An interesting suggestion I hear from InTheMoneyStocks.com is that when key economic data is to be released on a Friday when the market is closed it would usually be carried forward to the following week and released then. However, as this week with the jobs data, due to be released on a holiday Friday 03 July but actually released 24 hours early on 02/07 - take this as a negative indicator, with ugly figures being put out to a market that is already closing down for the holiday weekend and volume will be limited, so too will price impact. Interesting but I have no idea if reliable.
 
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I am short from 4235, based on the bearish engulfing candle of Thrusday. I could have got a better entry at 4260 ish on Friday, and sadly it wouldn't suprise me if we bounce up again before going lower, so I suspect I have badly timed my entry.

The possible cup & handle on the S&P looks destroyed now in my eyes after Thursday, and I now hope we will see the final stages of a right shoulder forming.

My first target is 4130, second is 4000.

I presume you're still short from Wednesday Tom?
 
I am short, but only from just after Thursday's close. I wouldn't mind a (small) bounce next week when the US resume so I could add to this: as high as 4353 would worry me.

I still see potential support from an old unfilled gap, 30/4, 4194-4218, we bounced off this all last week.
 
Flat

to early to call imho

think better opportunity to be found either side of the book via USA

NDX swing low at 1413 intact on mirror of old range / consolidation

week tf

printed a low vol test this week of a nice pinbar"y rejection bar which tested old consolidation area

OEX similer

possible weakness in background, would be confirmed in my mind on breach of the May lows

1st continuation of trend signal = lower risk trade imho

good trading next week

Andy
 
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I take your point on the NAS Andy, as it is still making a HH HL pattern. As is the S&P, and a breach of the swing low on the 23rd June @ 890 would be a change of trend for me.

In respect of the pinbar hammery type thingy on the NAS weekly - this could now be described as a hanging man line given the following weeks engulfing bearish candle that closes below the real body of the pin. This could be a solid reversal signal?

What signal gets you short Andy? A breach of 4200?
 
Geofract said:
I take your point on the NAS Andy, as it is still making a HH HL pattern. As is the S&P, and a breach of the swing low on the 23rd June @ 890 would be a change of trend for me.

In respect of the pinbar hammery type thingy on the NAS weekly - this could now be described as a hanging man line given the following weeks engulfing bearish candle that closes below the real body of the pin. This could be a solid reversal signal?

What signal gets you short Andy? A breach of 4200?
Click to expand...

Hi Geofract

confess I do not see it that way,(do not follow candles) activity down on test lower of the week tf rejection bar, it was a short week over there so would have some impact. We will find out for sure soon :)

"What signal gets you short Andy? A breach of 4200"

not had that much spare time, pretty busy this time of year = NQ Buzzin

have been concentrating more on Gbp /Usd etc in last few months

http://www.trade2win.com/boards/trading-journals/64714-tenbobtraders-journal.html

from my Journal dated 22/06/09

"NDX and other USA making a nice line up

ftse out the gate ?

have had limited time, looking for perhaps a nice bear flag (days) on the ftse to form while USA support tests, consider entry via intra day of open balance then and if

more detailed look if time permits

NDX still on its mirror and just above old highs, if it finds support there or at the mid of the old range it could pull all the others up I guess and bear flags could be everywhere. Trade in when NDX tests the highs from below perhaps ? ..............

getting ahead of myself"





not much changed imho, ftse out the gate on its own a bit lower than the rest / a lot lower actually the way I see it

I will be more interested how the ftse reacts to any USA moves / divergence

USA good up day off support (H&S day pattern lows) = how ftse marks it / trades it = hop skip and a jump up through potential supply ? to new highs ? and vice versa for down day

more direct answer ~

"What signal gets you short Andy? A breach of 4200"

I do not yet think its a proper short opportunity, criterior / conditions etc not met

will stick to ~ Trade in when NDX tests the highs from below perhaps ? with a tight STOP :) ......... not the Ftse :)

good trading next week, hope USA confirms and gives you lot a good tail wind

Andy
 
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Geofract said:
I am short from 4235, based on the bearish engulfing candle of Thrusday. I could have got a better entry at 4260 ish on Friday, and sadly it wouldn't suprise me if we bounce up again before going lower, so I suspect I have badly timed my entry.

The possible cup & handle on the S&P looks destroyed now in my eyes after Thursday, and I now hope we will see the final stages of a right shoulder forming.

My first target is 4130, second is 4000.

I presume you're still short from Wednesday Tom?
Click to expand...



OMG, how do i take the other side of this trade ? :idea:
 
@ Andy

I'm still learning candlestick patterns. It seems a pin or a hammer is only such when confirmed by a break and close higher. If it's engulfed, it then becomes a hanging man line, which is a reversal pattern. In a sense it is similar to an Island reversal, where the real body of the pin is the island.

Geo
 
Geofract said:
@ Andy

I'm still learning candlestick patterns. It seems a pin or a hammer is only such when confirmed by a break and close higher. If it's engulfed, it then becomes a hanging man line, which is a reversal pattern. In a sense it is similar to an Island reversal, where the real body of the pin is the island.

Geo
Click to expand...

Candlestick patterns are more meaningful in a longer time frame (Daily, Weekly etc.). However, it is unwise to rely upon them, solely, for making trading decisions. Even those that have a comprehensive knowledge of the patterns, incorporate some form of filtering system (Stoch, RSI, MACD, CCI) to try and eliminate false signals.
 
alan516 is on the money when stressing the danger of false signals. I'm coming to believe that any price action signal, candles or others, be they high or low percentage, has to be regarded as potentially false and it is how you deal with the false signals, not how you deal with the good ones, that will determine whether you are a successful / professional / serious trader.

We should all note the other unspoken truth in alan's message - indicators don't give signals. Indicators can be used to filter or confirm signals, but it is price is that gives the signal.
 
Absolutely. Signals are not predictors, all they do is give you a "reason to enter" and it's how you manage things from there that counts.

good trading

jon
 
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