swingin' the ftse: 2008

[tomorton]

Impressive late rally in New York Friday suggests we will see strong buying early in London Monday. I entered a buy order on Thursday night above Thursday's high as there is a 3-day unfilled gap reversal there: never thought it would be triggered but its about to be hit early Monday am I suppose.

Monday could also mark an upleg, and Friday's low is helpfully higher than the previous swing low, 27/10. However, Friday had a 200+ range so the stop-loss for longs is going to be far far away - care will be needed with position sizing to manage risk.

 

[Splitlink]

That SP trade I took on Friday showed a fair profit, considering it was out of hours, so I took profits at lunchtime, reduced the trading size, extended the SL distance and went to work.

Lost the lot. :cheesy:

Not worried because I stopped on BE and this has happened so many times before that I half expected it. That's what happens when a gamble comes into the equation.

I cannot enter FT on Monday until the open, so will stand aside on that one, looking for a short in this BEAR trend.

You guys take care.

Split

 

[barjon]

chart 1 - here we are then. The failed signal circled. I doubt many would have played it because of the gap opening, although some may have been tempted as it came back during the day. Mind you, if you'd been smoothing the volatilty with a 2 day chart - chart 2 - then you would have been in no doubt since you would still be in clear downtrend and in a short position opened at around 4385.

Of course, if you didn't like the "frenetic" pace of eod trading and preferred the comfort of your armchair and a longer term outlook using the monthly/4 week chart (using 1+ or 2+ bar swings), then you would still be short from above 6000, having ridden the earlier up-trend from around 4480 with three additions - chart 3. Makes you wonder why we stare at the screen every day

good trading

jon

 

[Splitlink]

Pullbacks, Jon, you can't beat them! :clap:

 

[tomorton]

Good thoughts Jon. My records show I suffered a 53pt loss on a long on that false move of 14/11 and was licking my wounds. But it spurred me on to go and do some good research over the weekend and this has beena good week as a direct result.

I see tomorrow showing a similar pattern in early trading, with an up gap and dramatic rally, but I shall get out of this one early. After that, much depends on Alistair Darling and Barack Obama: when politicians are this busy it is bound to upset regular TA.

 

[Splitlink]

Nice day for the longies! Congratulations.

I was waiting to short but it was not my day.

 

[chilltrader]

buy any dips -> 4500 (target)

 

[tomorton]

Ran two longs today, one triggered by 3-day unfilled gap reversal from Thursday, other the aggressive swing trigger. 60-min opening range reversal would also have worked (on tick chart, no signal on ADVFN FTSE chart) but I was away from screen. No orders or positions yet for tomorrow, the market will show the way.

 

[Hoggums]

There's a beautiful head n shoulders forming on the Dow,

Cant attach pic...

If resistance is broken then a down day for the FTSE tomorrow.

 

[tomorton]

Late rally yesterday made Friday putative swing high so I will probably play the game and place an appropriate sell order below the low but really expect the market to continue higher on Monday, barring very serious news events of course.

Finished the month in the black, though not a huge gain. Most of this came from intra-day reversals rather than swings. Its the simplest and most consistent pattern I have ever seen, to the extent that I have been scanning the SB T&C to see if there is something to ban disclosure of such data. I feel I had better refrain from detailing these trades in the public domain.

 

[barjon]

Just an update, guys

After the failed signal (red circle for those who've forgotten) we continued on down to 3734 which turned out to be a swing low with a long signalled and triggered at around 3953 (white line). If I was selling this as a system I'd be claiming it as "success" with 330 odd points already clocked up.

In reality, without the benefit of hindsight, you'd have needed to be extremely bold to have trusted it as a swing low, since it was a near 100% retracement and its 3781 close was a new closing low (3853 was the October low).

good trading

jon

 

[tomorton]

Afternoon all.

Jon - I certainly didn't treat 13/11 as a swing low for going short on the breach but I'm pretty sure I would have gone long when the next session breached the high and showed 13/11 as a putative swing low - which failed. Ho hum.

Today I am long and short - short on a swing trade with 28/11 currently showing as a swing high, long on an intra-day reversal. The long is already nearing stop-loss but that will leave the short with a stop way up at 4288 and a further-off target horizon.

 

[tomorton]

Following on Jon's theme of regarding 13/11 as a swing low, what do we think about 02/12? It seems relatively sound to regard this as a swing low in the same way and breach of the low as a continuation signal.

Who's setting up a sell order?

 

[barjon]

tomo

if we regard 13/11 as a false swing low then the "real" swing low came 21/11 since its low was above that of the 27/10 low (as i said earlier, you'd have been very bold to trade it!!) and thus we remain in the new uptrend from the method rules point of view. Accordingly, we should be favouring longs, but it's all very messy and I'm still leaving it alone and playing intraday 'til the dust clears.

good trading

jon

 

[tomorton]

Hello Jon -

You're absolutely right - strictly speaking we're in an upswing from low 21/11 coming in above low 27/10. But this is horribly messy - if I wasn't long from the breach of 21/11 (which I'm not), I wouldn't go long here.

Where would I happily go long? - either on confirmation of another swing low higher than 21/11, or on breach of 04/11.

Where would I happily go short? - could have tried it on breach of 28/11. Short Monday would be bold but probably justified after the weak week we've just had. Or wait until failure of 21/11.

 

[Splitlink]

I read Thursday's bar as a pulback and shorted Friday morning, fortunately closing at my usual lunchtime. It had quite a rally in the pm but the look of Friday's daily bar will get me to short again on Monday. Not right away, but when I think I see a high as I, still, see this pattern as a pullback.

Split

 

[megamuel]

Hello guys, I'm new to this so please don't read too much into my thoughts! Been looking at some charts of the FTSE 100 and noticed that the price is catching up with the 50 day moving average which is currently at about 4250. If we open above this today or break (maybe trickle is a more appropriate word!) through it as my spread betting platform is suggesting we might, could we see some long term growth or do you guys think this won't make much difference and we still have further to go down? Do we have a double bottom at 27th Oct and 20th Nov? Would be interested in your opinion on this and my appologies if I am talking crap, as I said I'm pretty new to this. Thanks,

Sam.

 

[tomorton]

Who knows? Though everybody hopes we will form a bottom.

Since mid-October we have been ranging sideways so there is potential for a rally from this base. The sideways movement has allowed the 50EMA to almost re-connect with prices, confirming what has happened. The index ranged from mid-July to mid-August and again the falling 50EMA re-connected with prices, but these could not sustain a base above the average, which never turned positive, and we fell again to the more recent lows. It is always more likely that the exit from the wedge we are living through now will be in the same direction as the entry, i.e. down, but clearly this cannot continue for ever. Either way, entry point would surely be after ejection?

 

[Interceptor]

70 point reversal spike @ 8.00am!!!!
Lasted all of 1 second!

 

[Splitlink]

Hello guys, I'm new to this so please don't read too much into my thoughts! Been looking at some charts of the FTSE 100 and noticed that the price is catching up with the 50 day moving average which is currently at about 4250. If we open above this today or break (maybe trickle is a more appropriate word!) through it as my spread betting platform is suggesting we might, could we see some long term growth or do you guys think this won't make much difference and we still have further to go down? Do we have a double bottom at 27th Oct and 20th Nov? Would be interested in your opinion on this and my appologies if I am talking crap, as I said I'm pretty new to this. Thanks,

Sam.

Take any average you like but I suggest that you look at the same average on several timeframes. That's what I do, anyway, although it does not always work. it does stop jumping in until they all on the same side and going in the same direction.

Good luck in your endeavours.

Split