Swingin' the FTSE 2011

[barjon]

17: - the bold who have assumed the swing change to down before confirmation will
have gone short today. The super bold around the top black arrow and the
others around the lower black arrow.

good trading

jon

 

[newtrader22]

No update for long time ?

 

[barjon]

17: - the bold who have assumed the swing change to down before confirmation will
have gone short today. The super bold around the top black arrow and the
others around the lower black arrow.

good trading

jon

Sorry, nt22, I'd stopped since there didn't seem much interest anymore. Here's the next chapter:

18: ....and those bold fellows will have probably taken the next day's price
rejection (hammer) as indicative that the assumed down trend may not
confirm and allowed them to escape without much damage.

19: Trend re-confirmed as up

20: long signal and entry

21: the price rejections (shooting stars) would have persuaded most to close
with a few pennies, if not it would be a losing trade as the stop-loss went
at 22

22: trend to down and those who play the potential break to a new trend
would have gone short on the break.

23: the first potential 3 bar retracement and the bold who will take an intraday
break will have gone short and suffered a loss. The more cautious just sat
frustrated on the sidelines, but pleased to have done so as things turned
out.

24: trend change to up and those who play the potential break to a new
trend would have gone long on the break.

25: the first swing low signal - but a 140 stop loss would have probably
had most people chancing the next candle (dotted white entry line)

26: in either case both are in long

27: some will have taken profits somewhere here after the price rejections at
resistance highs, otherwise still in long.

All in all it's been a pretty poor do so far this year since most of the major moves have come without convenient retracements. Those who encompass the break to new trend should have fared better, but the retracers will have scratched around for damn all.

good trading

jon

 

[newtrader22]

thanks barjon. I like this thread though I trade a different Index.

 

[barjon]

after scrabbling about most of the year i suppose you could say everything comes to those who wait

28: A small break of previous swing low gave a potential trend change to down but it wasn't much of a break.

29: nonetheless some might have been tempted for a short here and been happy to see the confirmation

30: small break of the 29 assumed swing trend was a potential change to up but it was shortlived and right in the teeth of high resistance. Most would be inclined to short if anything.

31: and certainly here

32: and again here

 

[Donkers]

Hello again all

I learned quite a bit from this great series of threads, but they seems to have come to a premature end.

Did this method stop working quite so well on the FTSE and not recover, or have you all found something more effective etc?

Thanks a lot.

 

[barjon]

Hello again all

I learned quite a bit from this great series of threads, but they seems to have come to a premature end.

Did this method stop working quite so well on the FTSE and not recover, or have you all found something more effective etc?

Thanks a lot.

Hi Donkers

It was a bit of a chore keeping it going and I gave up posting since there seemed to be little interest.

Since the swing trend changed to up late October there would have been 3 long entries (although the last one was very iffy)

jon

 

[arty]

Jon - Were the 3 entries 'seen' real time or only by looking at the chart now? Re the 2nd long entry - can you explain what the signal was and at what point you entered / would have?

Cheers

Mike

 

[barjon]

Jon - Were the 3 entries 'seen' real time or only by looking at the chart now? Re the 2nd long entry - can you explain what the signal was and at what point you entered / would have?

Cheers

Mike

Not sure, Mike, since I wasn't trading them, but they should have been ok since the idea is that you put an entry order in a tick or so (personal choice) above the high of the last bar. Both first and second entries may have caused problems since both new low and a break of the previous bar high occurred on the same day. Conceivably, if the high break was made first you might have found yourself stopped out as it made a new low the same day (if that's the way the price action went), but you'd have done the same the following day.

Someone cautious may have scrapped the order if the new low was made first and then put in a new order for the next day.

Hope that's reasonably clear, I've almost confused myself

jon

 

[Donkers]

Hi Donkers

It was a bit of a chore keeping it going and I gave up posting since there seemed to be little interest.

Since the swing trend changed to up late October there would have been 3 long entries (although the last one was very iffy)

jon

Thanks Jon.

Seems a shame the interest dropped off.

I wondered if that was because it was not working as well as previously, or that people wanted more trades eg daytrading.

Actually, it would be good to hear your opinion, and anyone elses who followed this, on whether the method works well on intraday charts, and on other instruments - eurusd, Dow etc

Anyway, in going through and revising my knowledge on various methods, I've re-read Marc Rivallands book now, and am going to go through these threads again. There's seems so very many ways to trade successfully, and this still seems a very sound and solid method to me, especially on the first pullback after a decent trend change.

Thanks again!

 

[tomorton]

Donkers - Have a look here at jon's generous explanation of enhancements to Rivalland swing trading - http://www.trade2win.com/boards/uk-shares/143686-swing-trading-ftse100-members.html

I admit to getting discouraged with this form of swinging on the FTSE100 and was distracted by other techniques. But I'm coming back to it now, it's like any legitmate trading system - works for a time on a given market, but as performance is cycling down on that one, it is cycling up on a raft of others. Should have stuck with it, my mistake.

 

[barjon]

Like a lot of things it's ok when there's a good trend going, but can be hazardous otherwise and downright fatal during extended chop. In my view the strategy is sound but it can't be treated like a mechanical toy.

A lot of TA is like that and it's probably best summed up by tomorton on his other thread (which he has linked to above) when he says "So, in reality, TA doesn't predict what price will do to us, it predicts what we will do about price.".

My own view is that trading is about making assumptions, all that TA does is give you places where you are prepared to make one.

 

[tomorton]

Stop it jon, I'm blushing like a girl.

Donkers - as you gather, I have elected to swing trade the 100 members of the FTSE index, so that I will always have some positions open and some more prospects about to mature, I do think the system is that good. I am taking the extreme view though, that it can work using set-and-forget entries and stops, no MAs /other indicators, discounting all financial news and disregarding the state of the FTSE chart itself. I don't expect to break the bank but with a few enhancements, this system should work even better.

 

[Donkers]

Thanks both of you. I'll read the other thread too. I also see some others that may be interesting - Big Ben etc.

Also, do you have any thoughts on the other queries.. whether the method works ok on intraday charts, and also on most other instruments - eurusd, Dow, etc

Thanks again.

 

[tomorton]

Hi Donkers - This swing method should be a good basis for decisions on any market. The only issue with 24hr markets like Forex might be where you set the open and close. Whatever time you use Monday-Friday, it is artifcial as the market remains open, and the daily high or low is so often the opening or closing price and I suspect different data providers use different closing times.

Intraday, never even looked at it, but yes, why not. Swing charts are a basis for decision-making, so the timescale should be irrelevant.

 

[Donkers]

Interesting, thanks Tom.

I just noticed there is an active FTSE scalping thread, and that Jon has posted there, so that's some more catching up I need to do - for the intraday aspect.

Thanks again

 

[lasafx]

i thing its have some suggestion

 

[Donkers]

In what way?