bangkoker
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Sounds like good advice, so you both feel a bullish streak if it beats last week's high?
I have a 'December' spread bet so I am not right bothered to carry a loss for a bit as long as we'll most likely see a retrace. My trading strategy allows for this if it's reasonably sensible to do it.
I have a 'December' spread bet so I am not right bothered to carry a loss for a bit as long as we'll most likely see a retrace. My trading strategy allows for this if it's reasonably sensible to do it.
Dentalfloss
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this res has kept the ftse down since early may.lets see if it breaks and where the pullback goes to
45 by 1 reversal
daily data
45 by 1 reversal
daily data
barjon
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Thought I'd review where we've got to with the swings over the last few months. I'll do them in numbered order to line up with the numbers put on the chart.
1. The short triggered on May 14 should have been worth around 380 points since I expect most would have targeted the 5000 line in the sand although the move did extend about 100 beyond that.
2. There was around 100 points in this if you were quick but, more probably, you'd be stopped out for -60 unless you were amongst those who use a close above the assumed swing high to stop them out - if so you had around + 185 to the 5000 line in the sand.
3. You would have assumed a swing change to UP at this point, particularly since no new low was made on the previous down move.
4. It's therefore unlikely that anyone took this short, unless you were one of those who wants a couple of days closes above the previous swing high before being satisfied that there had been a change of trend.
5. Clever you if you were in this camp - a nice profit and confirmation of the existing (according to you
) downtrend at this point.
5 (again -should be 6 but you can see where it is). Everyone should have taken this short and although there was 100 or so in it, you'd have been doing well to get it and probably didn't do much more than b/e or even -85 odd if you were careless.
6. Trend change to UP here
7. You'd have taken this long and although there was a potential 90 odd in it, b/e or stopped out for - 80odd more likely.
8. Some may have seen a change of trend to DOWN here....
9. .... but certainly here
10. and now we are here with a potential change in trend to UP.
All pretty messy lately
good trading
jon
1. The short triggered on May 14 should have been worth around 380 points since I expect most would have targeted the 5000 line in the sand although the move did extend about 100 beyond that.
2. There was around 100 points in this if you were quick but, more probably, you'd be stopped out for -60 unless you were amongst those who use a close above the assumed swing high to stop them out - if so you had around + 185 to the 5000 line in the sand.
3. You would have assumed a swing change to UP at this point, particularly since no new low was made on the previous down move.
4. It's therefore unlikely that anyone took this short, unless you were one of those who wants a couple of days closes above the previous swing high before being satisfied that there had been a change of trend.
5. Clever you if you were in this camp - a nice profit and confirmation of the existing (according to you
) downtrend at this point.5 (again -should be 6 but you can see where it is). Everyone should have taken this short and although there was 100 or so in it, you'd have been doing well to get it and probably didn't do much more than b/e or even -85 odd if you were careless.
6. Trend change to UP here
7. You'd have taken this long and although there was a potential 90 odd in it, b/e or stopped out for - 80odd more likely.
8. Some may have seen a change of trend to DOWN here....
9. .... but certainly here
10. and now we are here with a potential change in trend to UP.
All pretty messy lately
good trading
jon
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Afraid I've been away from swing trading for a few weeks while busy with Big Ben trades. Not currently swinging the 3-bar method. However, short tonight based on hikkake pattern formed by breach of low of 20/09, 5536.5: stop at high 20/09, 5607.3
Mr Flibble
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I've been watching the FTSE compared to the DOW and it would seem we are close to tipping point. The FTSE seems to be a lot less positive this week although we had a new high of around 5640 early Monday morning. As the DOW moved up the FTSE moved a little as a token gesture only. IMO the FTSE is first to find a new opposite trend and DOW follows some days later. I would expect one more test of that resistance at around 5640 and then the start of a new bull run. I just feel the last few days of this bull run in the US seems wrong.
barjon
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flibs
Here's how ftse has done relative to dow over the last few weeks. After showing relative strength ftse has certainly been weak against dow over last couple of weeks but is showing signs of catching up (it's 10 strong so far today).
I have to part company with you somewhat since I think dow is always the leader and ftse the follower - sometimes reluctantly, sometimes with alacrity.
-31 6 september
16
2
41
17
18
-15
-1
-15
-54
32
-31
-11
-35
10
-20
-2 yesterday
cheers
jon
Morning all. Haven't visited for a few months - distracted by intra-day Big Ben trades: these have been profitable and I can now return some attention back to swings.
Rivalland long from 01/12 continues to apply.
2C14X long from 03/12, from confirmed price crossover 14EMA continues to apply.
Hikkake short based on ID 08/12 has not materialised and looks unlikely to confirm before time expires today, with 100pts from yesterday's high to the 08/12 low.
Gap up yesterday remains unfilled and invites a short if price trespasses into the gap before Friday's close.
Pulling back from the most recent price action, we look likely to test 5902.1 from 09/11, highest since mid-2008, though RSI and stochastic show over-bought. 5902 could well be breached, as the S&P and Nasdaq have pushed through their November re-tests of mid-08 levels, but not by much. So much depends on the Fed.
Rivalland long from 01/12 continues to apply.
2C14X long from 03/12, from confirmed price crossover 14EMA continues to apply.
Hikkake short based on ID 08/12 has not materialised and looks unlikely to confirm before time expires today, with 100pts from yesterday's high to the 08/12 low.
Gap up yesterday remains unfilled and invites a short if price trespasses into the gap before Friday's close.
Pulling back from the most recent price action, we look likely to test 5902.1 from 09/11, highest since mid-2008, though RSI and stochastic show over-bought. 5902 could well be breached, as the S&P and Nasdaq have pushed through their November re-tests of mid-08 levels, but not by much. So much depends on the Fed.
barjon
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tom
wow! has it been that long :-0
better update since early september. it's all continued messy and i reckon you'd be pretty cute to be on Rivalland's coat tails atm.
10 - the new uptrend did, indeed, confirm.
11 - the small 3 bar retracement, but with an 'orrible last bar, may have taken you into a
long trade here and you may, or may not, have been stopped.
The next feature is the white circled retracement (sorry no number) which you should not have traded under the rules because only 2 bar, but which you might have kept mind as a legitimate swing low as things developed.
12 - at last a tradeable retracement (albeit very messy) you should have traded that
but would have been cute to have escaped without a loss - a false start
13 - you'd probably have had another go here, although we've gone below that white
circled "maybe" swing low and you might be thinking downtrend. I doubt anyone
would've escaped a loss here - another false start.
14 - twice bitten, how was your courage? There'll be plenty (including me) cursing a
missed opportunity.
good trading and Happy Christmas, swingers
jon
wow! has it been that long :-0
better update since early september. it's all continued messy and i reckon you'd be pretty cute to be on Rivalland's coat tails atm.
10 - the new uptrend did, indeed, confirm.
11 - the small 3 bar retracement, but with an 'orrible last bar, may have taken you into a
long trade here and you may, or may not, have been stopped.
The next feature is the white circled retracement (sorry no number) which you should not have traded under the rules because only 2 bar, but which you might have kept mind as a legitimate swing low as things developed.
12 - at last a tradeable retracement (albeit very messy) you should have traded that
but would have been cute to have escaped without a loss - a false start
13 - you'd probably have had another go here, although we've gone below that white
circled "maybe" swing low and you might be thinking downtrend. I doubt anyone
would've escaped a loss here - another false start.
14 - twice bitten, how was your courage? There'll be plenty (including me) cursing a
missed opportunity.
good trading and Happy Christmas, swingers
jon
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Good review Jon - looks like it's been hard work indeed.
So far, today's action is limited. Showing an ID so far, slightly positive on last night and on today's open but below yesterday's high (and therefore November's high also). This makes the hikkake short from 08/12 even less likely but raises interesting prospects - a hikkake short Friday, Monday or Tuesday if tomorrow is a higher range day: a key reversal short if tomorrow makes an outside bar on today (range is so narrow, this could easily happen) but closes weak.
However, it is so hard to think of the FOMC saying anything tonight that might deaden Christmas spending and 2011 investment planning.
So far, today's action is limited. Showing an ID so far, slightly positive on last night and on today's open but below yesterday's high (and therefore November's high also). This makes the hikkake short from 08/12 even less likely but raises interesting prospects - a hikkake short Friday, Monday or Tuesday if tomorrow is a higher range day: a key reversal short if tomorrow makes an outside bar on today (range is so narrow, this could easily happen) but closes weak.
However, it is so hard to think of the FOMC saying anything tonight that might deaden Christmas spending and 2011 investment planning.
Very narrow inside range so far. If market closed now we would have a bearish harami and an ID/NR4, both good opportunities to short if confirmation appears tomorrow, completing a very regular double top. With a more immediate bullish continuation, there would still be the possibility of a hikkake short next week.
Price broke out of the inside range but formed a spinning top. Unable to penetrate 5900 century number, nor the significant November high. An indecisive market, opening negative, then making a new high but falling all the way back. Wait for confirmation but short has to be the next move.
Today's failed price action (opened positive but failed to make a new high, then closed negative) tends to underline yesterday's doji, though these are not great revesal signals, so a short entry should await some further bearish confirmation, perhaps a close below yesterday's low with a high below today's high.
lol :cheesy: good one.
Must have been a day waaay below the normal amount of contracts that should trade.
Merry Xmas.
