swingin' the ftse

[barjon]

............Confirmation :?: I take it you mean Dow :?: or other index :?: Jon ...........



Andy

Andy,

Although the simple swing trading technique signals a change in swing trend when the previous swing high (low) breaks, it begs the question of defining "break" and each trader will come to their own conclusions as to how many lights they need lit before being satisfied.

Lights:

1. intraday move above (below) the break point.
2. close above (below) the break point.
3. a number of days staying above (below) the break point.
4. %age close above (below) the break point.
5. a retest of the break point.
6. a move to new highs(lows).

good trading

jon

 

[black bear]

Old Kippers got it right with his poem, did he ? does he trade?

mornin' split,

Yeah, fun isn't it? (Old Kippers got it right with his poem )

On the basis that you should put your money where your mouth is I've mostly traded what I've talked about on the thread and we're well ahead overall.

I've been trying to go through simple swing trading without confusing matters by any associated conditions which might be used in trading the swings. For example, you may recall on the fib thread that I said that reactions up to 50% were significantly the most successful. In this latest case the reaction was very near 100% and if I'd been trading it on my main account that would have meant "no trade" or a severely reduced position if I had taken it.

good trading

jon

Hi Jon

Good trading, followed your plan, good boy.

& Split

have you got a plan, other than the one I pm you"d :?:

Your pop is unfair IMO and based on well don"t no :?:

My money was down the day before with far less risk attached than yours IMO Jon and in line with trend

I am well in front in this game to by following my method Jon.

The purpose of the post was to to alert any one interested to my thoughts, simple as they are that the signal was high probability duff IMO thats all, not to take a trade against the obvious short term trend in place at the time of posting.

It was posted in good time and I said I did not intend to trade it I said I was not convinced regarding market recent fall and acted on it by not entering short at the signal, which incidently is not that good a signal if you enter at that level.

I would not trade an opinion unless of course its a simple no brainer Split :?: that would have been picking a bottom or Top would"nt it :?:

I will leave that to trader Dante and those Pins of his

The value to me is I would have thought obvious regards money saved from entering a duff signal.

Not having a position is a postion Jon, its value is obviously lost on you.

"Old Kippers got it right with his poem" I would draw your attention to the word poem Jon and split

Sorry to burst your bubble

ITS AN IDEAL

It is a great poem for sure, thats all.

Last thought then I will leave you to your, sorry I mean ganny and marc rivailland method

I am sure you are aware marc rivailand writes articles for the Investors Chronicle, some contradict his own rules and method because its impossible to write down everything thats between ones own ears and explain it to some one else who no"s nothing and hope they will understand it all or gain any real benefit.

They are genuine articles, he tries to point out discrepancies etc when he is at odds with his own written word and method.

Its just a bare bones method to get some one going, thats all IMO you need more than this to trade in profit.

Real profit not £1 per pt kind of profit consistently and with confidence and to act with any real authority.

YOU NEED TO WORK SOME THINGS OUT FOR YOURSELF

Good Luck with your trading Jon Split & all

You"ll need it

me I don"t so you can have it

I take my big shots when I want to, not because some one elses method tells me to.

Stops, just for you Split Hard 25 pts = hit 7 times in 6 months = I trade out when wrong I no I am wrong and dont need some stop to tell me



Done very ok so far so no reason to change

Its not Luck- theres probably no such thing as luck, and if there is you can"t depend on it. All you can do is play the percentages, play your best game, and when that critical bet comes,

In every money game there is always a critical bet you hold your stomach tight and you push hard.

Thats the clutch.

And thats where your born loser loses.

Bert
in Walter Tevis

The Hustler (1959)

Andy

 

[black bear]

above post I was very out of control for some unknown reason, got for no good reason at all

one of them days = no trades for andy today

I am not sure what its about so

Thanks Split for pm

gone for my dinner before I cause any more trouble

arrrrrrrrr thats better

Sorry Jon just popped again

got some passion in the post don"t you think Jon :?:

Andy

 

[Splitlink]

Genius makes people blow up, sometimes. We'll have to push your buttons more often Andy

 

[barjon]

above post I was very out of control for some unknown reason, got for no good reason at all

one of them days = no trades for andy today

I am not sure what its about so

Thanks Split for pm

gone for my dinner before I cause any more trouble

arrrrrrrrr thats better

Sorry Jon just popped again



got some passion in the post don"t you think Jon :?:

Andy

Hey there my dear chap :cheesy: what caused all that?

Dunno how you thought me or split were having a pop. Quite the reverse - you were the one who got it tabbed after all.

cheers

jon

 

[black bear]

Pushing buttons then time for tea

Genius makes people blow up, sometimes. We'll have to push your buttons more often Andy

The Mrs pushs the buttons once a month, then sits down with tea and a Kit Kat to enjoy the show

I would not describe it as Genius, the Mrs just says I am a right pr..ck

I am inclined latter upon reflection to agree with her

Thanks for posts Jon and Split

No pushing any buttons for a week or two at least

Andy

 

[black bear]

P&f chart update required, pencils blunt Tim

Tim an urgent p&f chart please

good excuse errrrrrrrrrr change of trend

urgent because the page needs turning to make me feel better again

new page new start new trend

Andy

 

[timsk]

Tim an urgent p&f chart please
good excuse errrrrrrrrrr change of trend
urgent because the page needs turning to make me feel better again
new page new start new trend

Hi Andy,
I used to think this thread as a haven of peace and quiet, a tranquil retreat from the hurly burly of ordinary bulletin board life. Not any more! But don't worry Andy, it's probably no bad thing as more people may take an interest in it once word gets out that, contrary to public opinion, it's not a thread with just a few ol' fuddy duddies discussing the FTSE over tea and biscuits. In fact, it's a thread populated by fiery characters with passionate views who, between them, offer some pretty insightful observations about the index and it's likely movements.

I'll post the usual weekly P&F chart tomorrow, but I can tell you all you need to know about it for today. . .
The good:
It's firmly BULLISH and the bearish resistance line was breached yesterday.
The not so good:
Yesterday's close was more than enough to print a reversal at the close of play today - i.e. a new column of red 'O's will print - UNLESS the index rises to at least 6600. This is unlikely IMO given yesterday's sell off. Look for support around the 6400 - 6425 area.
Cheers all,
Tim.

 

[rustic1]

Hi everyone

I usually trade the Dax but the FTSE seems to be having a lot better moves lately.
I tend to be a scalper intraday trader.

Kathy

 

[Splitlink]

Hi everyone

I usually trade the Dax but the FTSE seems to be having a lot better moves lately.
I tend to be a scalper intraday trader.

Kathy

Hi Kathy

This thread is a swingtrading one. There is a poster called Spreadbunny who is into scalping but she's been very quiet, lately. I am not into swingtrading, myself, either, but am interested in the subject.

Split

 

[rustic1]

Thanks Spilt

 

[Splitlink]

Thanks Spilt

No problem. Hang around here, though, I'm sure you're welcome. They are inclined to be a sleepy lot, though, because the EOD bars have to get into the right formation to get them excited.

Split

 

[rustic1]

Hi

have to see if we can shake them up them

Hope we get a pop & drop after Jobs report

K

 

[black bear]

Any one seen Bajon today

Hi

have to see if we can shake them up them

Hope we get a pop & drop after Jobs report

K

Hi Rustic 1

welcome to the thread, owners out at the moment licking his wounds

We don"t need any more shakes this month thank you, enough for one month already.
Threads have been threatening to inplode on both sides of the atlantic

you can have a go next month if you like

Like Split said it can get a bit quiet round here sometimes, tim is due back from playing with his new account settings so the weekly P&F will arrive before to long which will give us some reading matter.

Good Luck with your trading

Andy

 

[timsk]

I'll post the usual weekly P&F chart tomorrow, but I can tell you all you need to know about it for today. . .
The not so good:
Yesterday's close was more than enough to print a reversal at the close of play today - i.e. a new column of red 'O's will print - UNLESS the index rises to at least 6600.

Sorry folks. . .
I made the basic error of posting in a hurry before going out for the day having assumed that the index opened at 6500 or lower - which, of course, it didn't! Consequently - and totally contrary to what I said would happen this morning - there's been NO reversal. Many apologies for a sloppy post.

Tim.

 

[timsk]

The Santa Rally in Full Swing

I'm no expert on drug abuse, but my understanding is that the higher the highs, the lower the lows, so it will be interesting to see how severe the reversal is when it comes.

Well, what a week! As expected, the reversal materialized, but it was weak, lasting just one day - Tuesday 4th. In itself, this is quite bullish and served the useful purpose of raising the support level to 6300 (horizontal red dotted line). If this were breached, the index would switch back to being bearish. However, that's a clear 250 points below Friday's close and, as things stand, the Santa rally is in full swing and an assault on the 6750 highs is very much on the cards. Why? Well, it's breached last week's 15 strong column of bloo 'X's - another buy signal, it's breached the 6500 resistance level (horizontal bloo dotted line), it's breached the bearish resistance line (diagonal red line) and, last but not least, there aren't any serious obstacles in its path through to the 6750 highs. As always though, it's virtually guaranteed that the index will have at least one reversal between now and then. Again, the signs to look for include a small column of red 'O's that doesn't last long before switching back up. Suffice to say, the chart exhibits very BULLISH characteristics that, for added confidence, are mirrored in the DJIA.
Tim.

 

[barjon]

...............welcome to the thread, owners out at the moment licking his wounds ..........

hi andy (and welcome rustic)

been away for a long weekend licking that minor scratch and spending some of the earlier profits

good trading

jon

 

[Sai]

Well I'm done for!

I've held my position over night and all the american markets have just tanked! The Fed let me down. I hope it isn't complete carnage on the opening tomorrow..

Hoping London takes a calm view on the Fed interest rate cut..

 

[black bear]

Last post till the next one

Its late and this is my last post, just had my fix for the week, just popped into collect my P&f chart and

Tims away I assume up to no good, branching out some place else perhaps with that new platform of his :?:

Have a good Christmas and New year all

Andy

 

[timsk]

2 Steps Forward, Just 1 Step Backward?

As always though, it's virtually guaranteed that the index will have at least one reversal between now and then. Again, the signs to look for include a small column of red 'O's that doesn't last long before switching back up.

It's worth noting, I think, that the new reversal column of red 'O's didn't print until the end of play on Thursday. A bar or candlestick chart will show that Friday 7th through to Tuesday last week comprised a sideways consolidation pattern in a fairly narrow range around the 6550 area. On my 'standard' 25 point, 3 box reversal P&F chart, this is just noise which the chart filters out. New columns of red 'O's or a bloo 'X's will only print if some pretty decisive price action has occurred. Even Wednesday's large 180+ point move didn't show up as a reversal that night because the index made a fresh high above 6600, thereby adding an extra bloo cross to the (then) existing column of bloo 'X's. However, the reversal has now printed and it's deeper than the bulls would have liked, suggesting that the task that lies ahead for them isn't going to be quite as easy as it looked as if it might be this time last week. Even so, the bears will have to push down another 50 points to 6300 to create a double bottom (dotted red horizontal line) and another 25 points beyond that to generate a double bottom sell signal. So, as the chart currently stands, it remains BULLISH and, indeed, the bulls will have taken some encouragement from the rally on Friday which resulted in the close being well into the top half of the day's high / low range.
Tim.