I posted earlier on this thread about the importance of the order book and the difference of trades at bid/trades at ask as an important hints as to which way the market is likely to break from periods of price indecision. Here is a nice example from today's KOSPI. Each bar is 2000 contracts wide. Black line is VWAP.
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firewalker99
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ymonly said:
"Little or no value"?!
sorry ymonly... has to be the most surprising post to read in this thread!
if you know how to trade them they can be extremely profitable...
firewalker99
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bracke said:
Let me know how it pans out today.
firewalker99 said:"Little or no value"?!
sorry ymonly... has to be the most surprising post to read in this thread!
if you know how to trade them they can be extremely profitable...
From what I see, they are no better than other patterns. Sometimes they work and sometimes they don't, To me, the first chart represents a failed high with the start of a new trend. If that was interpreted correctly, as such, it, too, would have signalled a successful short..
In the same way, with Rainman2's chart, post 107, the initial uptrend found a new high at the end, where he shorted and got stopped. A difficult chart to figure but, still, that is what I see. At the very end, I see it going for another high which, if it failed and broke below 62.5, would get me out of the long trade. Could you tell us how that chart went, Rainman2?
Split
firewalker99
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Splitlink said:
It depends if you consider the move up near the end a new high or not. I would not (it only goes a couple of ticks higher) and hence would be out (if I was long) after it failed to go higher than the previous highest high.
firewalker99 said:
Yes, but if I had been in the trade, (all hindsight, I'm afraid
) I don't think that the fall from the previous high would have stopped me out, but the fall from the last high to below the lower red line would have done, I think. If the latest price went back below 62.50 I think I would work on the assumption that a new trend might be in place and short it, treating the pattern as a failed high.As to what I consider new highs/lows, I draw my R/S lines across the bodies of the bars, ignoring the spikey parts as "returnable". That would, just, justify me calling that one a new high. The devil's in the rules
firewalker99
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Splitlink said:As to what I consider new highs/lows, I draw my R/S lines across the bodies of the bars, ignoring the spikey parts as "returnable". That would, just, justify me calling that one a new high. The devil's in the rules
That's why I prefer not to stick to a single line, but consider it an area of support or resistance, with the "spikey parts" the extreme ends of that area and the bodies of the bars where price travels most of the time as the "normal" area of S/R...
Splitlink said:
Splitlink
Generally agree but remember sp can move sideways for a long time and as dbp has pointed out the hinge may just resolve itself into more sideways movement.
However the chart I posted last week of SMC has seen the platform resolve itself. See chart below.
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an intraday chart with more than 10 min time frame doesn't see those very often....so we need springboards and hinges to tell us it is going to explode one way or the other...a simple ma usually tellls me which is the way very high probability.or, maybe a hand drawn demand supply line.......of course, i could be an ET/ES journal paper/rear view mirror trader and be correct everytime. We can only take what we have proven to be correct a very high percentage of the time and go with it..to capture points consistently............ .if that is a simple moving average/oscillators/volume/s/r and/or combos that boggle the mind and look like a tangled pile of different colored ropes and each with it's individual pet name as we "discovered it" ourselves, then great....if it works....won't be an overnight adventure if one succeeds...
bracke said:
Could I ask you if you traded this share and at what point did you enter? It seems that one would have had to come to a decision to trade before the event. If that is the case, then I cannot see an advantage over other systems that traders may use. Take a look at my chart of SMC using a Bollinger Band.
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there is the ultimate mechanical system...no thinking allowed......next is discretionary /reading charts with no oscillators, etc....also id'ing apex is utopia...can it be done? yes, but not to the exact point, most of time...but very close...too close to talk about......spbds and hinges are really okay for thinking guy.....my emotions prevent me from being what i wish to be in the trading arena.....even with system doing the work......another issue..... IMHO only
