firewalker99
Legendary member
- Messages
- 6,655
- Likes
- 612
ymonly said:
I'm not sure what you mean by "if it worked", but if you are asking about my position at that time, I was already long from 12355.
ymonly said:
If we moved lower then 12350, then I would probably have initiated a short... but after entering the trade there was no real reason for me to exit until the end of the day really.
firewalker99 said:
Firewalker
Your entry long at 12355 appears to have been before the hinge had been reached and the direction was indicated,
Am I correct in thinking that your entry at 12355 was based on the support that this level had provided earlier?
Regards
bracke
firewalker99
Legendary member
- Messages
- 6,655
- Likes
- 612
bracke said:
Yes correct.
But my entry or exit wasn't what I meant to illustrate, the purpose was to show the hinge and if you had entered long in the hinge, you would've still had a very good entry and be ready for the move that followed...
firewalker99 said:
firewalker
But is that the correct method of using the hinge?
You appear to be suggesting that one should take the trade before the hinge is full formed. Nothing wrong with doing that if it is based on other criteria but if the hinge is the criteria then
I thought that the method was to identify the hinge 'flaps' as they were forming, wait until the hinge 'joint' was reached and if the price went up or down take the trade in that direction.
Apologies if I have misunderstood you.
Regards
bracke
firewalker99
Legendary member
- Messages
- 6,655
- Likes
- 612
bracke said:
Bracke, I believe you misinterpreted me indeed.
I posted the chart to illustrate a hinge... not to show a possible hinge trading strategy. My trade had nothing to do with the hinge - as you correclty pointed out it wasn't formed yet at that time.
What you describe is a possible strategy, waiting for confirmation to see what happens, but others might have a more aggressive approach and take a gamble on direction? Who's to say one is better than the other... Hinges can lead to great potential, but false breaks can also get you into trouble.
firewalker99 said:
My apologies for misunderstanding.
A gamble! Surely not! I thought that was what we were trying to avoid. Why not wait until the hinge is fully formed and direction suggested then take the trade. You may miss a few points but surely it is worth it to gain an icreased probability of a winning trade. I appreciate that it may prove to be a false break but that's what a stoploss is for.
Regards
bracke
firewalker99
Legendary member
- Messages
- 6,655
- Likes
- 612
bracke said:
I'm not saying I would take a gamble, I'm just saying some would probably do. And if they have backtested and refined a certain hinge strategy where let's assume in 50% of the cases price breaks out to the upside and travels as high as the width of the hinge, well... I'm sure they can afford to be wrong then for 50% of the other time with a stop placed at a sensible point.
It just amazes me that people always want to be right about what's going to happen, when an edge doesn't necessarily mean you have to be right all the time, let alone more than half of the time.
firewalker99
Legendary member
- Messages
- 6,655
- Likes
- 612
ymonly said:
good for you, but I've seen people trade that average 92% win ratio that in terms of average daily points get less than people who trade a 50% edge... anyway, let's not divert this thread into something else (again), seems like impossible to stay on topic these days
For example, bracke & ymonly, let's get back to the chart I posted and tell me what signs you saw that a break to the upside was more likely?
that a break to the upside was more likely?"
Nothing except it was off a prior day support ..vol went with the direction which was good ,but you wouldn't have known that except with hindsight...I wouldn't have taken the B/O as on my take it was a gamble..based on my view a p/b was the play ,but I'll leave the tactics out of it.
Nothing except it was off a prior day support ..vol went with the direction which was good ,but you wouldn't have known that except with hindsight...I wouldn't have taken the B/O as on my take it was a gamble..based on my view a p/b was the play ,but I'll leave the tactics out of it.
Attachments
firewalker99
Legendary member
- Messages
- 6,655
- Likes
- 612
bracke said:
On that chart, there doesn't seem to be any previous support around 100, there's just been a serious downplunge (uptrend broken I assume), and the volume is decreasing. I would either short from 110 or short if it breaks 95.
firewalker99
Legendary member
- Messages
- 6,655
- Likes
- 612
Today's YM
Yet another one?
If you are on the lookout for a hinge, this looks like another example.
Today you could have already got the warning signal early, without having to wait till the end of day.
Price moved up to 12560 (1), then we had a swing low (2) that didn't travel as far as the opening price (around 12520 instead of 12500), which basically meant we failed to make a higher high (1), but also failed to make a new low (2). At the next attempt to breach higher we went to 12555 (with the exception of that wickbar). Those who sorted on this failed attempt however, didn't get to live long as price reversed at 12530 making another higher low.
We are at 12550 now as I'm typing, and the range has become much smaller. We'll have to wait till tomorrow to see how this is resolved.
Note: added a 2-min close up.
Yet another one?
If you are on the lookout for a hinge, this looks like another example.
Today you could have already got the warning signal early, without having to wait till the end of day.
Price moved up to 12560 (1), then we had a swing low (2) that didn't travel as far as the opening price (around 12520 instead of 12500), which basically meant we failed to make a higher high (1), but also failed to make a new low (2). At the next attempt to breach higher we went to 12555 (with the exception of that wickbar). Those who sorted on this failed attempt however, didn't get to live long as price reversed at 12530 making another higher low.
We are at 12550 now as I'm typing, and the range has become much smaller. We'll have to wait till tomorrow to see how this is resolved.
Note: added a 2-min close up.
Attachments
Last edited:
Is anyone posting on these forums capable of teaching us how to find the right side of resolution before the hinges /sringboards are resolved? doesn't that seem a bit late entry as I would like to be able to get in on right side of move before the move occurs once I get up to speed? excuse my novice questions please....
