Best Thread BBmac's Gbpusd thread

[bbmac]

Thanx for your comments gamma.
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As price bought off that 6250 pullback low a clear 1min hidden divergence based Re-entry [to next t/f trend after a pullback] developed following a pullback off 6313...the screenshot below shows the 1min Re-entry set-up

The trouble with this set-up was that there wasn't much of a 5min uptrend to re-enter yet, re overall price action-peak/valley analysis, see chart below

The set-up came @ a HL after a H but it did set-up @ a previous swing hi x2 =previous resistance=potential RBS and 5min macd was crossed above it's axis with 30min either flat or ticking up.) I traded the set-up but at a reduced volume....I prefer to see the trend extending past the 5min and a more established 5min trend....of course the 30min/1hr were in an uptrend but there had been no new HH in these prior to the set-up, but with the 30min hidden div set-up discussed above and an uptrend extending to the 4hr chart with the daily printing a H above the last LH of it's downtrend, I figured it was still a high enough probability trading opportunity...sure enough a good pip gain resulted, price finding supply

G/L

 

[gamma]

I agree!

Hi Gamma and BBMAC!

I am looking to trade cable regularly and I am reading your posts with interest.

I have read a number of posts with conflicting views (no change there then) and I am interested to learn your thoughts.

The first question is are will, overall, still in a down trend and this is a blip? Or are we headed higher than 1.64?

Either way my thinking is that in the short term the trade should favour a short!?!

My rationale for this is that if we are to push through and go higher then surely a retrace on the 4H to 382 fib (around 16135) is needed for a continuation of the uptrend?
And if it is a current blip against the main trend and the main trend is down then a short would again be the best course of action.

As ever timing will be everything but i am interested in your thoughts.

Thanks in advance for your time.

I am done for the week so can chat now!


Kaisen,
I am not sure which fib you are referring to here,

retrace on the 4H to 382 fib around 16135

On the retrace from the 17040ish high to low of 15707 I do not see the 16135 fib.

Looking at the bigger picture It has broken the 50% retrace fib ( high 17040 low15707) to the upside but seems to be struggling to get over it.It seems a bit exhausted at the moment the 4 houly is showing lower lows but still above the daly at the moment.Until such time as the direction of the daily changes I will not call a short.

bbmac I hope we are not derailing yourthread if we are please say so.
Would also like to hear your opinion on the above.

 

[kaisen]

I am done for the week so can chat now!


Kaisen,
I am not sure which fib you are referring to here,

On the retrace from the 17040ish high to low of 15707 I do not see the 16135 fib.

Looking at the bigger picture It has broken the 50% retrace fib ( high 17040 low15707) to the upside but seems to be struggling to get over it.It seems a bit exhausted at the moment the 4 houly is showing lower lows but still above the daly at the moment.Until such time as the direction of the daily changes I will not call a short.

bbmac I hope we are not derailing yourthread if we are please say so.
Would also like to hear your opinion on the above.

Thank you for your comments Gamma.

The fib level i took was from the lows at 15707 to the recent high at 16399 where price has started to retrace. This gives me a 382 retrace to 16135 based on a 4H chart.

If this is a glaring error of the use of the fib tool please let me know but I have had success using it.

 

[gamma]

Thank you for your comments Gamma.

The fib level i took was from the lows at 15707 to the recent high at 16399 where price has started to retrace. This gives me a 382 retrace to 16135 based on a 4H chart.

If this is a glaring error of the use of the fib tool please let me know but I have had success using it.

Hi Kaisen,
Good to have a debate like we did in the old days of t2w.

I disagree with you on the fib prices reason being

On a bigger picture this pullback may not have completed yet, I see a completion of a pullback when the daily direction changes. How do you see it?
And see the fib from 17040 ish to 14400 is still in play.
The validity of the above fib is based on the the 50% pull back at 15700ish.
And like I say above it has breached 38% fib upside and unless I see a daily change I think the uptrend is intack until 16430 at least.

 

[kaisen]

Hi Kaisen,
Good to have a debate like we did in the old days of t2w.

I disagree with you on the fib prices reason being

On a bigger picture this pullback may not have completed yet, I see a completion of a pullback when the daily direction changes. How do you see it?
And see the fib from 17040 ish to 14400 is still in play.
The validity of the above fib is based on the the 50% pull back at 15700ish.
And like I say above it has breached 38% fib upside and unless I see a daily change I think the uptrend is intack until 16430 at least.

Hi Gamma, I agree it is good to discuss as it can be useful either in challenging ideas or promoting and developing new ones.

I am not saying the larger move is over I am just thinking that for the move to go higher, usually a retrace first is necessary (after a major move) before a continuation higher. There is no rule in saying it should retrace to a 382 but all i am looking (in a simplistic view) at a move from the low at 1.57 to the recent high and then looking for a retrace on the 4H before a possible move higher.

As you know price does not go up (or down) in a straight line and therefore i would have thought a retrace after such a big run would be plausable.

And if the up move is over then all the better but that is to be proven. I do have a trend line on the daily which we have touched 3 times now and retraced. The last touch being at 1.64. (I am not forecasting the future price action btw just a thought)

So given we have touched a trendline on the daily, have gone up so much without a retrace, the previous main trend (and possibly continuing trend) was down and we have had a retrace which didnt retest the high at 1.64 - for the short term is down not the most likely action?

Just my thoughts.

 

[gamma]

Yes, agree with the above analysis what also lends credence to the above argument is the 4 hour price action since 0.00. hrs we have had lower lows and lower highs.
I think once we see a close on the 4 hourly below the daily we look at a change in direction for the short trem at least

 

[kaisen]

Yes, agree with the above analysis what also lends credence to the above argument is the 4 hour price action since 0.00. hrs we have had lower lows and lower highs.
I think once we see a close on the 4 hourly below the daily we look at a change in direction for the short trem at least

Thanks Gamma - whats your opinion on the trendline on the daily?

I make it touching a trendline on the 5th August, 11th September and today.

 

[bbmac]

Hi, good to have some sensible discussion..

As I see it, and per overall price action-peak-valley analysis, the 1hr and 4hr are in uptrend although o/b and a bit exhausted as gamma said in his post earlier. 1hr right now has put in a LH off the 6398 area current intraday hi and high of the upmove up from 5707, although this may become more significant if there is a L below the last HLof the uptrend on that t/f. The 6398 Hi was a HH on 4hr and it is still at an area that would constitute a HL in it's uptrend...As for where price will go next-no idea, lol...just play the set-ups as they develop, on the t/f's of interest to you.

The 4hr is below:

Price has made a H above last LH of the downtrend on the daily t/f...so a warning that that downtrend on that t/f may be over ? The 50% of the main 7044-5707 move as well as the potential sbr of the underside of prev ascending support trend line and the desecending resistance trend line on the 4hr were also breeched in the run up.

G/L

I agree!

Hi Gamma and BBMAC!

I am looking to trade cable regularly and I am reading your posts with interest.

I have read a number of posts with conflicting views (no change there then) and I am interested to learn your thoughts.

The first question is are will, overall, still in a down trend and this is a blip? Or are we headed higher than 1.64?

Either way my thinking is that in the short term the trade should favour a short!?!

My rationale for this is that if we are to push through and go higher then surely a retrace on the 4H to 382 fib (around 16135) is needed for a continuation of the uptrend?
And if it is a current blip against the main trend and the main trend is down then a short would again be the best course of action.

As ever timing will be everything but i am interested in your thoughts.

Thanks in advance for your time.

 

[gamma]

Thanks Gamma - whats your opinion on the trendline on the daily?

I make it touching a trendline on the 5th August, 11th September and today.

I am not really very good at trend lines I believe they are quite subjective.
But ifi do as you have said 5th 11th and today I see the trend line touches the first two but not today yet. but it seems to conicide very closely with the fib at 16426 bearing in mind turns are not exactly to the point.
bearing the above in mind it will be be a good idea to keep an eye on price action around the fib points you mentioned earlier.

 

[bbmac]

5min reflective of the current intraday conditions, rangy now on this t/f..

Still some order though and again a 1min Re-entry (to next t/f trend after a pullback) set-up develops after the pullback to the previous swing lo=previous support=potential sbr zone shown in same 5min chart below...

A 1min hidden divergence based Re-entry set-up with both 5min macd crossed below it's axis and 30min (and 1hr) pointing down @ entry..

..finally going down after a few re-tests of the potential sbr

G/L

 

[bbmac]

Any extended pullback may encounter fresh buy the dip demand at the previous 4hr (and daily t/f) prev sw hi x 2 =prev res=potential rbs zone...fibs around here include 61.8% of 5919-6398 @ 6201 as well as 38.2% of the 5707-6398 rise just above the zone @ 6234.

Intraday sentiment remains unclear. Some U.s data later.

G/L

 

[kaisen]

Any extended pullback may encounter fresh buy the dip demand at the previous 4hr (and daily t/f) prev sw hi x 2 =prev res=potential rbs zone...fibs around here include 61.8% of 5919-6398 @ 6201 as well as 38.2% of the 5707-6398 rise just above the zone @ 6234.

Intraday sentiment remains unclear. Some U.s data later.

G/L

Do you think this thought may also account for the resistance at 16250 as buyers came in at the close of the last 4H "thrust" bar?

 

[kaisen]

I am done for the week so can chat now!


Kaisen,
I am not sure which fib you are referring to here,

On the retrace from the 17040ish high to low of 15707 I do not see the 16135 fib.

Looking at the bigger picture It has broken the 50% retrace fib ( high 17040 low15707) to the upside but seems to be struggling to get over it.It seems a bit exhausted at the moment the 4 houly is showing lower lows but still above the daly at the moment.Until such time as the direction of the daily changes I will not call a short.

bbmac I hope we are not derailing yourthread if we are please say so.
Would also like to hear your opinion on the above.

Just trying to learn hear but....

Why do you plot fib from the pivot at 17043ish (5th August) and not a more recent pivot point of 11th or 23rd September?

Plotting fib from the pivot on the 11th September would have given a fib extension target area of between 15970 and 15758 (using a fib extension range of 1.27 to 1.618) and price hit 15770!

Please understand i am not challenging just trying to learn.

Also USD strengtening against euro, CHF and YEN btw.

 

[bbmac]

Do you think this thought may also account for the resistance at 16250 as buyers came in at the close of the last 4H "thrust" bar?

Note sure that I understand the question, the 4hr was looking like a bearisgh thrust until buyers came in as you said and that candle closed bearish but not a bearish thrust candle.... the current pullback lows at 6250 have created a previous 1hr sw lo=prev supp=potential support zone that is so far holding...any breech of this effective HL in the 1hr uptrend puts the 1hr uptrend in some dobt, particularly given the LH on this t/f...this said such a breech would still see price at a higher price than the last HL on the 4hr t/f.

G/L

 

[bbmac]

fibs

Personally, I have fibs plotted from the 7044-5707 down move and 6740-5707 down move, although I don't use fib exstensions Upmove fibs are 5707-6398 and 5919-6398 currently. As someone pointed out earlier fibs can be somewhat subjective re where they are plotted from, but I tend to stick to the major 1hr+ moves only. Trend lines too can be subjective although somne are more obvious than others, and i draw these only on 1hr+. It is the confluence of fibs and/or trendlines with previous price pivots on 1hr+ (ie previous fractal swing hi/lo's) that show where the largest near-term obvious imbalances of supply/demand or demand/supply, where the highest probability trading opportunities reside.

G/L

 

[kaisen]

Personally, I have fibs plotted from the 7044-5707 down move and 6740-5707 down move, although I don't use fib exstensions Upmove fibs are 5707-6398 and 5919-6398 currently. As someone pointed out earlier fibs can be somewhat subjective re where they are plotted from, but I tend to stick to the major 1hr+ moves only. Trend lines too can be subjective although somne are more obvious than others, and i draw these only on 1hr+. It is the confluence of fibs and/or trendlines with previous price pivots on 1hr+ (ie previous fractal swing hi/lo's) that show where the largest near-term obvious imbalances of supply/demand or demand/supply, where the highest probability trading opportunities reside.

G/L

Thanks for that very interesting.

I too look at the 1H and 4H for major strategy but also the lower time frames for correlation of trend and early signs of change in trend etc as well as entry and exit.

I will look at how you use fib which could add another layer to my analysis.

It does seem logical however to also look at more recent pivot points which i guess would re-affirm the analysis from the larger fib you use and fine tune any price target.

It is uncanny how often the fib extensions from the last pivot points provide good target areas.

Your posts have re-inforced the importance of the higher higher higher low etc which i have been overlooking.

Thank you for your replies - most helpful.

 

[bbmac]

Patience and Discipline

After missing a set-up @ 1201pm London time, and then breaking, ...one final set-up today after the range consolidation in 5min showing again that you must have the patience to wait for the highest probabilirty set-ups.. Price reacts to the 1415pm U.s data and pulls back from a 6348 Hh in the developing 5min uptrend to a previous 5min swing hi x 2 =prev res=potential rbs zone and on the t/f below - the 1min, a hidden-divergence based re-entry (to next t/f trend after a pullback) set-up develops on this lower t/f, with a bullish price action trigger...the set-up came at an immediate HL on both the t/f it set-up on and more importantly the t/f above into whose uptrend the set-up indicated a hi-probability 'buy the dip' trading opportunity in an uptrend..and a new HH in the 5min uptrend has just resulted...crucially too the 5min macd signal line was above it's axis as was 30min, and 30min/1hr were pointing up @ point of entry.

G/L

 

[bbmac]

W/e fri 16/10/09

Pippy500/Gamma etc: Thank you for your comments.
----------------------------------------------------------------------

Cable ended the week just off it's early Friday Hi of 6398, having made a HL off that HH in the 1hr uptrend followed by a LH then another HL. The 1hr screenshot is below and price had continued to find supply in the previous swing hi=prev res=potential res zone @ that LH ahead of the close...the HL's below it however, coupled by Friday's Bullish candle close and the Weekly bullish candle close that engulfed the previous 2 bearish Weekly candles, suggest more upside is probable.

This 1hr screenshot shows the potential support/rbs factors on this t/f above the zone marked as b on the 4hr screenshot below. Upmove fibs are currently drawn on this 1hr chart from 5707-6398 and 5919-6398.

Turning to the 4hr t/f and the move up off 5707 from the previously mentioned 3 fib cluster likely caught the bears off guard (fundamentally speaking the recent across the board $ weakness finally caught up with gbpusd aided by 'less worse than expected' data and Boe suggestions of a halt to the current £175bn Qe programme) The move up from 5707 breeched the 4hr descending resistance trend line and the 50% fib of the main 7044-5707 drop. The uptrend is intact on this t/f too with a HH @ that 6398 Weekly Hi. No fresh sellers either at the underside of the previous ascending support trend line on the Daily t/f (potential sbr @ the underside of H&S neckline on that t/f.) The unbreeched fibs on the 4hr screenshot below relate to the 7044-5707 and 6740-5707 moves. Shown too are the obvious near-term previous swing hi/lo's on this t/f that are potential support/rbs and resistance/sbr zones, particularly if co-existant on other t/f's/with the confluence of other potential supp/res factors like fibs/trend lines.

The zones shown as c, and d are co-existant with obvious previous swing hi/lo's on the daily t/f, and zones a and b are co-existant on Daily and 1hr t/f currently. A steep ascending potential support trend line is evident from 5707 Lows.

Turning to the Daily t/f and the fib shown is of course the main 7044-5707 move. There is a descending potential resistance trend line that will come through on this t/f, descending from 6440 @ next open. This t/f has seen a H printed above the last LH of it's downtrend suggesting that the downtrend on this t/f may be in some doubt now. Friday's 6398 was in a prev swing hi=prev res=potential res zone on this t/f, and at the top/near top of the descending channel of this t/f, as the 5707 weekly low was at the bottom of the same descending channel.

G/L for forthcoming week's trading.

 

[bbmac]

Mon 19th Oct

Opening gap down today and after an early rally cable continues the selling, reacting to the Earnst & Young Item Club report apparently. The sell-off has resulted in a 5/30min downtrend and the screenshot below shows the 1min hidden-divergence based re-entry (to next t/f trend after a pullback) set-up that resulted in a nice pip gain...the 2nd set-up saw over 20pips gain available but so far has not resulted in a 'with trend' follow thru to a new LL as yet, and I am watchibng the 5min t/f for a potential HL in it's downtrend.

G/L

 

[bbmac]

This is how I am see-ing the 1hr currently in respect of potential supp/res factrs, the chart shows the fibs from 5707 and 5919-6398, as well as the dotted 6398-current intraday low, as well as prev near-term obvious sw hi/lo zone and trend lines (widde dotted = breeched) The dark green horizontal dotted lines are the unbreeched fib fan of the 5707-6398 move.

As always I am looking for hi-probability set-ups/price action triggers at potential supp/res/sbr/rbs, particularly the confluence of set-ups and potential supp/res factors on this and other t/f's.

G/L