BBmac's Gbpusd thread

[bbmac]

Cable has given back 50% of the 6409-6077 fall having found support at the prev daily swing hi=prev res=potential rbs zone discussed and shown in post above..1hr is in an uptrend now but has found supply at the 100sma on the 1hr chart, ( similarly the 6409 Hi was the 100sma on the daily chart.) and this is back in the previous 4hr congestion channel.

The current 1hr chart in respect of potential near-term obvious supp/res factors is below: Not shown on this chart are the unbreeched fibs of the 6876 and 6720 - 6077 swings with 23.6% of the larger 6876-6077 swing nearest, above current price @ 6264. The fibs shown relate to the 6409-6077 swing.

G/L

 

[bbmac]

W/e 18th Dec 09

With a bearish candle close again on the Weekly t/f it remains in an obvious range between 7044-5707 but price is on a downward trajectory having breeched and a candle close below it's steepest ascending trend line.

Turning to the Daily t/f and with 3 x LH and 3 x LL it is in a downtrend having seen a downside breech of the 61.8% of the recent 5707-6876 swing up, and the previous swing hi=previous resistance=potential rbs zone at which price found some support on first test (visible on 1hr/4hr t/f) although price closed back above the later. A bearish candle close on Friday candle, this t/f is descending in a channel.

Turning to the 4hr, and following a false upside breech of the recent congestion on that t/f price sold down to Friday's Low see-ing this t/f developing a downtrend following a L, LH retest of the congestion channel following 1st downside breech, and LL now. Like the 1hr t/f it's 100sma is below it's 200sma and these are pointing down.

G/L for next week.

 

[bbmac]

Potential support below Friday's low

The 200sma on the Daily and the 76.4% fib of the recent major 5707-6876 swing up are coming in @ around 5998/5978 respectively and below here the previous swing low=previous support=potentuial support zone visible on the Daily and Weekly screenshots in the post above this one...this runs 5780-5707.

This is not to say that there will be other areas that may offer support if tested, not mentioned above, just that these are the main potential support factors I can identify below Friday's low.

G/L

 

[bbmac]

resistance @ descending trend line - 1hr

The trend line joins the highs of Wednesday and Friday last, as Friday's hi found resistance off the previous ascending trend line on same t/f (wide dotted grey line.) Current downward trajectory off the trend line-1st test as 5min prints a H, HL then LH,L,LH and LL off that trend line bounce.

G/L

 

[bbmac]

5min downtrend

The current 5min is shown below..downtrend exstablished there but only on this t/f so far with 30min see-ing a H,HL,LH,HL,then H,L,LH, and LL now off and including the Friday Hi, so may be exstablishing a downtrend...time will tell..61.8% fib of Friday's 6050-6166 recovery has now breen breeched with this sell-off

G/L

 

[bbmac]

Mni

The Mni cable analysts/desk must be on early hols, distinct lack of bid/offer info so far this London session...rev0very off 6088 and a great 1min trigger t/f regular bullish div reversal set-up with supporting 5min osc extremes/cci reversal set-up there (1min shown below) but no potential support/rbs pre-identified so fad to stay flat...shame!!..would have gone for it even just with mni touting bids there.

5min hidden divergence building now but no convincing 30min/1hr downtrend to re-enter after the deeper pullback...1hr candle shaping up as a pinbar/hammer....3mins to it's close...anything can happen of course...

G/L

 

[bbmac]

5min's gone a bit Pete Tong

5min Downtrend halted at 6088 then an uptrend started and now a L below last HL of that developing uptrend...all a bit messy with 30min trend t/f not exactly clear either.

Uk/U.s Q3 Gdp finals later this week

1hr may be forming an ascending channel?

G/L

 

[bbmac]

Last post of this year

Cable continues it's decline aided by a disappointing Q3 GDP revision to -0.2% from -0.3%, market was expecting 0 or -0.1%. 1hr and 4hr in a downtrend, the screenshot below showing the previous ascending support trend lines , the undersides of which (sbr) where resistance was found for further legs down, today's current intraday hi being the lowest of those...price challenging the 200sma on daily t/f right now, with mni talking of '...decent demand @ 5995...' Weekly S1 & Daily S1 pivots in area too....and the 76.4% fib of the 5707-6876 swing up is not far behind.

Below here and attention will turn to the previous Daily/Weekly Swing lo=prev supp=potential support zone 5780-5707 area as next most obvious potential support factor, with that 38.2% fib of the current yearly hi - lo there 3505-7044, @ 5707 area.

This is my last post of this 2009. Thanks to all those who have contributed to and followed this thread during 2009..Wishing you a Happy Xmas and Prosperous New Year.

 

[MagicJohnson10]

Hello bbmac,

Thank you for your efforts on this forum.... they are very much appreciated.

Any chance I could bother you for some description on your exit timing and target setting?

 

[trader_dante]

Hey BBMAC,

What happened to this thread? Always enjoyed your analysis on Cable...

My analysis for Cable today and a few ideas depending on your style ;

Operation Assault GBP/USD

Operation Assault $GBPUSD : Phase #1 : Isolate the objective
Chart.ly - Trader_Dante: Operation Assault $GBPUSD : Phase #1 : Isolate the objective

Operation Assault $GBPUSD : Phase #2 : Reconnaissance
Chart.ly - Trader_Dante: Operation Assault $GBPUSD : Phase #2 : Reconnaissance

Operation Assault $GBPUSD : Phase #3 - The Plan.

Strategy #1 Consolidation and Reorganisation
Chart.ly - Trader_Dante: Operation Assault $GBPUSD : Phase #3 - The Plan. Strategy #1 Consolidation and Reor...

Strategy #2 The brute force attack
Chart.ly - Trader_Dante: Operation Assault $GBPUSD : Phase #3 - The Plan. Strategy #2 The brute force attack

Strategy #3 The Ambush
Chart.ly - Trader_Dante: Operation Assault $GBPUSD : Phase #3 - The Plan. Strategy #3 The Ambush

Strategy #4 The Counter Attack
Chart.ly - Trader_Dante: Operation Assault $GBPUSD : Phase #3 - The Plan. Strategy #4 The Counter Attack

 

[trader_dante]

Update : GBP/USD moved up for the TL retest so of the scenarios, strategy #2 triggered. Well done to anyone that got more or less the exact high there. Big move to the downside so far.

See chart : Chart.ly - Trader_Dante: Strategy #2 triggers

 

[bbmac]

Hi Td, ....If I post anything I tend to post any meaningful analysis over at ff.com now.

Currently today's precipitous price fall testing last week's lo, @/around the ascending Daily trend line which is in and part of the previous Daily/4hr/1hr swing lo zone leading down to 5361 where it is currently encountering some demand.

Immediately @/ below here:

[ 5390-74-68-61 prev Dly/4hr/1hr sw lo zone
[ 5380-70 ascending Daily t/f trend line on this daily candle
5347 Monthly S1 @/around
5334-5314- 5270 prev Weekly/Daily/4hr sw lo zone incl 5311 Weekly S1 @/around (* 5420-5270 co-existing prev weekly sw lo zone)
5196 Weekly S2 @/around
5189 61.8% 4225-6746
5148 Monthly S2 @/around
5145-30 ascending Monthly/Weekly t/f's trend line on this weekly candle


The 4hr chart below shows the test and bounce from the underside of the breeched 1hr ascending trend line (wide dotted line.)

G/L

 

[trader_dante]

Hi Td, ....If I post anything I tend to post any meaningful analysis over at ff.com now.

You and me both. Haha! I've got a big thread on the go over there...

Just one more update on Cable : Short term traders should look to take profits around here at 1.5371 ahead of the major D1 lows.

That should give you nicely over a point profit (approx 110 depending on where you got in)

 

[bbmac]

1 and 3min repeating regular bullish div plays at the current daily lo...can't help thinking that the downside remains vullnerable overall though.

G/L

 

[bbmac]

Immediate upside obstacles shown on near-term current 1hr chart below.

G/L

 

[trader_dante]

1 and 3min repeating regular bullish div plays at the current daily lo...can't help thinking that the downside remains vullnerable overall though.

G/L

I know it makes no difference to you with your lower TF work, bbmac, but as far as I am concerned, Sterling will gravitate towards the order flow beneath the weekly level and at the moment I am mainly short positioning unless price action shows me otherwise.

 

[bbmac]

I tend to agree with your overall technical short side biais and yeh there are opportunities to go against that on the lower t/f's...By the weekly level you mean the previous Weekly/Daily swing lo down to 5270 (last year's lo) ?

Gotta stay vigilent in this market re any sudden changes in sentiment though with all the fundie stuff in play.

Ascending Daily t/f trend line has now been breeched to the downside as has that previous Daily/4hr/1hr swing lo down to 5360, price trading down to/about Monthly S1 pivot at current daily lo. 123% of 20day atr so far today re pip move.

Current near-term Weekly chart below;

Thanks,

G/L

I know it makes no difference to you with your lower TF work, bbmac, but as far as I am concerned, Sterling will gravitate towards the order flow beneath the weekly level and at the moment I am mainly short positioning unless price action shows me otherwise.

 

[bbmac]

Yesterday's bearish thrust b/o candle saw some downside follow thru off the asian hi to a new lo deep in the previous weekly/daily swing loi zone extending to 5270...there the 1min regular div signalled the start of a pullback/extended pullback (or more ?) This was supported by repeating reversal set-ups to 1hr, the reg div 1hr shown below....

Above here and I would imagine the previouys daily/4hr swing lo 5360-5406 that contains the previous now breeched daily ascending trend line may see some offers ?

@/below the current lo

5315- 5270 prev Weekly/Daily sw lo zone
5261 Daily S1 @/around
5196 Weekly S2 @/around/Daily S2 @/around
5189 61.8% 4225-6746
[ 5148 Monthly S2 @/around
[ 5155-40 ascending Monthly/Weekly t/f trend line on this daily candle
5082 Daily S3 @/around
5034-4945 prev weekly sw lo zone incl 5017 Weekly R3 @/around
4935 Monthly S3 @/around

G/L

 

[YouAreNotFree]

Link to your FF thread BB?

I trade the 5m/1m Eur/Usd in a similar fashion to you.

 

[bbmac]

I'll send you a pm with a link to the thread I generally post in if/when I do post over there...not fair to post it here.

G/L

Link to your FF thread BB?

I trade the 5m/1m Eur/Usd in a similar fashion to you.