Best Thread BBmac's Gbpusd thread

[bbmac]

It's all in the charts !!

Pretty bullish sentiment visible in today's price action so far, the steep recovery move up off Tuesday's 5707 low doubtless blowing out some stops. The asia/overnight session see-ing a pullback off Wed's 5937 hi to 5900 and a London open run up to 5992 before any real supply took price down to a pre 0830am gmt un-employment data low @ 5933. They say it is all in the charts and sure enough there was a regular immediate bullish 1min and 5min reversal set-up @ those lows @ a prev 1hr sw hi=prev res=potential rbs zone, 2 mins before the data @ 0830am gmt..the 1min set-up shown below;

The reaction to the data saw a run up to the current 6023 intraday hi, where supply was encountered, the hi being the 23.6% of the major 7044-5707 fall as well as the 76.4% of the more recent 6119-5707 fall and a previous 1hr sw hi=prev res=potential res zone;

Supply continues to be encountered here and any move above will doubtless target the next potential resistance zone being the prev 1hr sw hi zone 6099-6119, 6095-6119-6164also being a previous 4hr sw lo then hi (SBR) zone, the 38.2% of the 6740-5707 fall being at the base of the zone - @ 6099, with 50% 6470-5707 being just below @ 6086 area.

G/L

 

[Technically Fundamental]

Could you not argue a triangle formation there if you discount the 1'oclock bar high/spike from the data release punting?

 

[bbmac]

Could you not argue a triangle formation there if you discount the 1'oclock bar high/spike from the data release punting?

I don't see it..on 1hr?

 

[Technically Fundamental]

I don't see it..on 1hr?

weak signal?

 

[bbmac]

weak signal?

Lol, yeh..thx for posting..there was a steep 1hr ascending trend line I guess which has now been breeched to the downside, and there were 30min/1hr supporting regular immediate bearish reversal set-ups at the 6023, 1hr even printing a doji on the re-test of the highs..

G/L

 

[N Rothschild]

u sure love your divergences

 

[bbmac]

u sure love your divergences

Yeh, they are part of a confluence of tech reasons I use to enter a trade, the ultimate trigger being price action itself. Oscillator divergence turns a lagging momentum indicator into a potentially leading momentum indicator and combined with band/channel deviation/extreme deviation and with what that tells you about the volatility on the particular t/f, ...and the repeating patterns that the combination of these 2 make @ pre-identified potential support/resistance enables a high probability outcome trading system/methodology on whatever time frames. Of course keeping up to speed with what the overall price action conditions are on the intermediate and trend t/f's in a triple t/f strategy and whether these conditions (trend or range) are contra or co-existant and indeed contra or co-existant the longer t/f conditions, is important in making informed trading decisions.

G/L

 

[N Rothschild]

whats your exit strat

 

[bbmac]

whats your exit strat

This is dependant on

a. Whether with or against any trend and on how many t/f's above that used as the trigger for entry, the trend exists on
b. On how many t/f's above that used for entry, there are supporting set-ups

...then on the subsequet price action on the t/f's above that used as the trigger for entry. I don't use arbitrary targets but prefer instead to guauge what the market is most likely to give me.

G/L

 

[bbmac]

Daily set-up update

I posted this set-up on Tuesday on this thread, before the daily candle closed , suggesting that it could be a good reversal set-up (if on a daily t/f trigger) if daily candle closed as a pinbar or bullish hammer...well it's done ok so fa,r lol...another example of high-probability repeating indicator patterns supported by a price action trigger.

G/L

 

[bbmac]

Very strong move up in gbpusd so far today as price continued to rise through the asian/overnight session into the london open, off yesterday's 5919 pull back Low. With price @ 134% of it's average 20day pip range it encountered potential resistance cluster being the underside of the previous Daily t/f ascending support trend line (potential SBR,) the 50% and 38.25 fibs of the 6740 and longer 7044 falls to 5707 respectively, area of Daily R4 and Weekly R2 calculated pivots, and mni touting offers in the 6220/25 area. A nice 1min trigger set-up developed shown below with double regular immediate bearish divergence in it's oscillators (supported by clear Reversal set-ups to the 15min t/f) and price has since dropped but so far only by 20pips max...so even with supporting reversal set-ups above the trigger t/f, on a strongly trending day, you have to be realistic re targets for contra-trend trading opportunities..

 

[bbmac]

Ongoing debate over @ the gbpusd thread @ ff.com re why the move up today and what the trend is now, I replied as follows:

....fundamentally speaking the across the board $ weakness finally caught up with this pairing, aided by some not as bad as expected Uk data this week from which bullish traders in this pairing have taken comfort. ....technically speaking, there have been more buyers than sellers, creating an uptrend to 4hr t/f with the last LH of the daily downtrend breeched to the upside.

And the point is this, you can only trade what is going on on the t/f's of interest to you, and technically speaking it matters not what the reason for the move is, or indeed what the trend might be on t/f's higher and much removed from your own. You have to accept this in technical trading...but so may cannot/will not.

 

[bbmac]

Price overbought

it's an oft misused phrase and of course price will be o/b or o/s in a trend but @ 179% of it's 20day average pip range and 85% of it's 52week average pip range, beyond Daily R4 pivot and 308pips up today lo-Hi, the pairing finds more supply as shown in the pic below, Mni had talked about interim resistance @ 6300 also... fair reversal set-ups to the 30min t/f at this potential resistance, 5min supporting set-up shown below, but again limited target here (already met) as in strong uptrend to 4hr, although price is very o/b to the 1hr t/f.

G/L

 

[bbmac]

So an extended pullback off that current 6298 intraday hi discussed in post above, as a 5min bullish hidden divergence based Re-entry [to next t/f (+) trend after a pullback] set-up develops [shown below] timed as a 1min regular bullish divergence entry at 1307pm london (Rev Aii seq)...with U.s Cpi data due at 1330pm and price already well extended, I opted to move stop to b/e...will be interesting now to see what the forthcoming data does to price now..either stop out or more gain, 2mins and counting till data, lol

1338pm Update: No real reaction to 1330pm U.s data, so have closed out taking pip gain available now.

 

[Technically Fundamental]

Possible formation of new channel to continue down-trend? Cable slips back from highs, Asian central bank seen selling | ForexLive

S Turned R at 163.00
Another Sym triangle and a series of indecisive bars on the hourly

On the other hand a lot of room to the top-side to hit sep23 swing & triple hit on descending TL (daily @ 164.50

Keeping an eye in case top-side break is fake.

Anyone else have any views on this.

 

[Technically Fundamental]

Yankee 2h open bar failed to make higher high but matched lows resulting in inside bar w/double bottom and massive bearish divergence

 

[bbmac]

Seems the bulls are having another go at the highs again from a pullback low @ the 23.6% of 5919-6298. Trend is up to the 4hr chart and the last Lh of the daily t/f downtrend has been breeched to the upside, all in all a bullish situation at the moment..Price is already @ 179% of 20day average pip range today and 95% of 52week average pip range this week, I wonder whether the London session will see new highs? As always time will tell.

G/L

 

[bbmac]

Price has found some support @ 6250 after the asian/overnight Hi @ 6398-top of the Daily descending price channel, and in a previous dly swing hi=prev res=potential res zone...this after the support @ 5707-bottom of the dly descending price channel/3 fib cluster that precipitated the move up to current highs, that seems to have caught a lot of traders off guard holding a generally bearish view of the pairing.

G/L

 

[bbmac]

This mornings pullback lows @ 6250, saw a 30min hidden-divergence based Re-entry [to next higher t/f trend after a pullback) set-up...with nice bullish pinbar trigger...the lows also saw a great 1min regular sequential bullish divergence based reversal set-up @ 0805am london (Reversal Aii seq) and then 15min also developed a hammer candle, 5min see-ing a harami trigger/inside bar, but no real set-up..As for potential rbs/supp, well the only thing I had there was previously touted 'stronger bids' in the 6460/50 area-mni.

G/L

 

[kaisen]

This thread is a must read for anyone trading cable.
Just to let you know bbmac your efforts and hard work are not in vain I find it very helpful in my trading as I am sure others do too

keep up the excellent work.

I agree!

Hi Gamma and BBMAC!

I am looking to trade cable regularly and I am reading your posts with interest.

I have read a number of posts with conflicting views (no change there then) and I am interested to learn your thoughts.

The first question is are will, overall, still in a down trend and this is a blip? Or are we headed higher than 1.64?

Either way my thinking is that in the short term the trade should favour a short!?!

My rationale for this is that if we are to push through and go higher then surely a retrace on the 4H to 382 fib (around 16135) is needed for a continuation of the uptrend?
And if it is a current blip against the main trend and the main trend is down then a short would again be the best course of action.

As ever timing will be everything but i am interested in your thoughts.

Thanks in advance for your time.