BBmac's Gbpusd thread

[bbmac]

Now the 4hr candle - on this feed - has just closed bullish.

Market expecting no change re rate and Qe - Uk Boe Mpc announce later so any change may cause a ripple ?

G/L

 

[trader_dante]

Bbmac,

Did you get the short off 1.5366? There was a great level there and it's been the exact high of day so far. It was a beauty to take us into that longer term move down.

I'm loving Cable at the moment.

 

[bbmac]

Yeh, and there were earlier entries to the 1hr PB close based on the 1 3 5 and 15min repeating regular bearish div reversal set-ups, the 5min regular bearish div one is shown below and nice bearish engulf thrust trigger on that.

There was a 3 fib cluster 5362-73 confluence just at bottom of that previous support (previous Daily/4hr swing lo zone) and I know you had posted elsewhere earlier about potential offers @/around 5366 as I had here.

Nice one.

Bbmac,

Did you get the short off 1.5366? There was a great level there and it's been the exact high of day so far. It was a beauty to take us into that longer term move down.

I'm loving Cable at the moment.

 

[bbmac]

61.8% of this morning's pullback from 5278-5366 and a prev minor 5min sw hi/lo the current downside obstacle on any long term bear's route to world domination !

G/L

 

[N Rothschild]

i love how you have stuck to the same method and instrument all these years, must really work for you

 

[scose-no-doubt]

i love how you have stuck to the same method and instrument all these years, must really work for you

Wish it would f*cking work for me.

 

[N Rothschild]

nothing will work for you, sorry

 

[bbmac]

Either that or I'm 'flogging a dead horse' Lol...Seriously though I see no reason to ' get off a winning horse..' If you've got an edge and it works for you -stick with it and try and improve it where you can -based on empirical evidence and lots of it.

G/L

i love how you have stuck to the same method and instrument all these years, must really work for you

 

[bbmac]

Pullback from 5278 extends to the top of the previous minor Dly/4hr swing lo zone confluence with 61.8% 5487-5278 / 38.2% 5627-same 5278

4hr charts shows this below.

G/L

 

[bbmac]

Decent repeating bearish div based reversal set-ps at that potential sbr described above, 3min shown below....any downside has the obstacles shown on 1hr chart below. Currently some demand at the previous 1hr/minor 4hr swing hi zone.

G/L

 

[bbmac]

Immediately downside of current price:


5363-5351 prevminor 4hr/1hr sw hi zone incl 5359 = 38.2% 5278-5408

[ 5347-43 prev minor 1hr sw hi zone incl 5343=50% 5278-5408

[ 5345-40 ascending 1hr t/f trend line on this current 1hr candle

5328-26 prev 1hr sw loi zone incl 5328 = Dly Pivot and 5327 = 61.8% 5278-5408

5320-10 prev 1hr sw lo zone

5309 76.4% 5278-5408

5300-5289-78- 5270 prev Weekly/Daily/4hr/1hr sw lo zone incl 5297 = 85.4% 5278-5408 and 5288 = Daily S1 @/around

5239 Daily S2 @/around

5199 Daily S3 @/around

5196 Weekly S2 @/around

5189 61.8% 4225-6746

[ 5150-30 ascending Monthly/Weekly t/f trend line on this daily candle

[ 5148 Monthly S2 @/around

5034-4945 prev weekly sw lo zone incl 5017 Weekly R3 @/around

G/L

 

[trader_dante]

Nice analysis.

I've been long Bund and Short Crude today. Haven't looked much at Cable.

 

[bbmac]

Congratulations to all those that sold and held the LH on 4hr at 5408, - the previous minor dly/4hr swing lo, 2 x fibs, @/about descending 4hr t/line and then 100sma on 1hr....5270 the previous swing lo on weekly/daily was breeched in the move with a current and likely Friday lo of 5234 = a 50% extension of previous day's range/ @/around Daily S2.

Strong bounce up at 5234 resulting in a perfect 4hr PB candle which succeeded the imperfect 1hr PB...with price @ 145% of the 20 day atr, and it may seem like more but only 84% of ther 20 week atr at the 5234Lo.

4hr is below.

G/L

 

[bbmac]

From a technical persepective looking at the weekly chart...a break lower this week saw a LL just below the last significant LL of 5270 on this t/f but price closed bullishly on the 4hr and below on Friday having bounced off the 5234 weekly Lo. This Weekly t/f is showing some bearish signs therefore but probably still looks a little mixed at the moment, admittedly though more bearish leaning than bullish ?

G/L

 

[bbmac]

Looking at the Daily, some evidence of buyers in the vicinity at the lows re Thursday and Friday's daily cndle closes and this is reflected on the 4hr/1hr t/f's...it's messy on this t/f re fractal swings but a general (overall price action-peak/valley analysis) downtrend is in evidence.

 

[bbmac]

Below Friday's closing price I see the following potential rbs/support factors. Please be aware that is not to say that I think all of them have a high probability of see-ing demand coming in at those levels (howsoever permanently or temporarily) - just that in respect of what my own methodology deems 'main' potential support factors and 'minor' factors (calculated pivots) - this is what is present below Friday's closing price.

The general principle underlying my trading edge is to look for repeating patterns of confluence and this applies to potential supp/res factors. IWhen you examine potential supp/res factors for any length of time you will notice that certain combinations offer generally stronger supp/res then others.

5305-5299 prev minor 1hr sw hi zone
5283-77 prev 1hr sw lo zone
5260-34 prev 4hr/1hr sw lo zone (Friday and last week's Lo)
5228 Monday's Daily S1 @/around
5198 Weekly S1 @/around
5189 61.8% 4225-6746
[ 5150-20 ascending Monthly/Weekly t/f trend line on this daily candle
[ 5148 Monthly S2 @/around
[ 5144 Monday's Daily S2
5083 Weekly S2 @/around
5034-4945 prev weekly sw lo zone incl 5017 Weekly R3 @/around and 4970 = Monday's Daily S3 @/around
4935 Monthly S3 @/around
4819/17 76.4% 4225-6746 / Weekly S3 @/around
4796 Monday's Daily S4
4593 85.4% 4225-6746
4551 Weekly S4 @/around

G/L

 

[Thrall]

Sell on rallies unless gbpusd can break 1.55

 

[bbmac]

repeating patterns of bullish divergence to the daily chart at Fri/last week's 5234 Lo ..How significant these turn out to be we will know soon enough..I wouldn't be surprised to see more uposide rally on Moinday ?

1hr shown below as the example.

G/L

 

[barjon]

From a technical persepective looking at the weekly chart...a break lower this week saw a LL just below the last significant LL of 5270 on this t/f but price closed bullishly on the 4hr and below on Friday having bounced off the 5234 weekly Lo. This Weekly t/f is showing some bearish signs therefore but probably still looks a little mixed at the moment, admittedly though more bearish leaning than bullish ?

G/L

http://www.trade2win.com/boards/gen...-understated-problem-gbp-usd.html#post1766626

 

[bbmac]

New gbpusd thread for 2012 here - see if anyone wants to contribute.

http://www.trade2win.com/boards/forex-discussion/142890-gbpusd-analysis-2012-a.html#post1767396