I'm quite intrigued by this dialogue for a couple of reasons and would like to tease out a couple of things that I might learn from/be useful:
a) I'm with Brettus on this swing down. However I've not taken a position yet because I have a final filter/confirmation that's not been triggered yet. I get in a bit later as a result but it repays in the Win% for me. For the record it's a time filter with another directional filter.
b) Plan aside, I can see a number of things that come from discretionary parts of cerebral cortex that tell me this is probably not a good bet. These are (i) even though a lower high formed yesterday and it failed to breach 1235 it got very close, (ii) it also failed to make a lower low of any note telling me buyers are still pretty active and finally (iii) the buying into the RTH close was strong, especially keeping it above 1220. Discretionary me is telling there is continued accumulation going on with people distributing heavily between 1220-1235.
So the intraday discretionary 'me' can see this is not a good set-up (for me) but the plan I follow for swing trading tells me this is 80% there now.
Two questions then:
@Brettus - do you ever apply any discretion to your trade set-ups?
@WSW - I can tell you're discretionary but what do you know on either a technical/fundamental/mash-up level that leads you to the swing not starting?
Ok, I was hoping that maybe Brutus would give his target area for the short as it would make understanding his trade easier. If it is just a touch of yesterdays low, then yes thats possible. If its a swing low to the 4th Oct then this is unlikely to play out. What I was trying to fathom out was what sort of target the set up normally gives. ie when we dont close above the high, where does price tend to go?
All I see is opinion based calls rather than anything meaningful. On another thread a well known poster has been trying to short today, as he did a few days ago, and stopped out both times. Im not saying anything against his calls, but sometimes there is more too it that reading the economic news and adding in a few technical support levels, and well know patterns. Thats what happened here, the markets are not ready to drop, and people are trying to short at a very dangerous time.
Yes I am discretionary, and I believe this helps me back away from patterns and candle formations. We discussed the issue about the apparent rally on "something" a few days ago. I asked if indeed there had even been a rally? Again your definition will be different to mine, and thats what makes the market what it is.
Have you seen the drawing that MajorDutch posted from FF? Have you ever seen a chart like that? There is so much wrong with it, but no one notices, and thats exactly what the market does to us all the time. We see what we want to see. That is why it is wise to stay well away from patterns, unless you really know what is going on.
Someone mentioned Apple's missed estimates; what will be your call on the market if we buy up of this data?
Best wait for now, but each to their own.