Best Thread BBmac's Gbpusd thread

[gamma]

Are you shorting the pull back?

No kaisen,
Don't like going counter trend have been bitten too many times
and by the looks of it would have been a bad idea

or maybe not ! or maybe grrrr grrr
but if you are not sure best to stay out.

Better to be out of a trade wishing you were in, than being in a trade wishing you were out!

 

[kaisen]

I'm note sure I understand your terminology, Could you explain more, ..Thanks.

Hey BBMAC, great analysis again and again.

The UUP, I beleive is the ETF for the dollar index.

Have a look at the following link:

U.S. Dollar Index - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia

I look at this for an indication of dollar strength and thus to understand whether a move is gbp strength or dollar weakness. This allows you to understand when a change may occur ie if the dollar strengthens or weakens.

I watch the UUP on the follow link:

FreeStockCharts.com - Web's Best Streaming Realtime Stock Charts - Free

I would be interested to know your thoughts on this!

Good trading to you!

 

[bbmac]

Decent enough 1 and 5min regular divergence based Reversal set-ups @ that previously mentioned 6589 area, which also fell between the Mthly R1 and Wkly R1 calculated pivots as price hit 137% of it's 20day average pip range, so due a pullback at least...

The 1min set-up is here, a quick +11 pip gain here:

.....Before the 1min hidden-divergence based Re-entry (to next t/f trend after a pullback) set-up developed, shown below:

Stop @ B/e now (6566ask entry,) ...looking for a with trend follow thru to a new Hi, might take +10 if it struggles or of course b/e...actually I have just closed @ 6584bid so +18.

G/L

 

[kaisen]

No kaisen,
Don't like going counter trend have been bitten too many times
and by the looks of it would have been a bad idea

or maybe not ! or maybe grrrr grrr
but if you are not sure best to stay out.

Better to be out of a trade wishing you were in, than being in a trade wishing you were out!

No problem, just trying to gauge your thoughts as you mentioned exiting the long on the doji and then you mentioned the retrace. So I was wondering as you mentioned exiting on the doji, and not the retrace, whether you were looking to short the retrace.

I understand you are not shorting the retrace but why did you mention the retrace?

Just trying to learn my friend!

 

[bbmac]

No real effect from 11am Uk CBi ind trends data. This is what I am see-ing right now in respect of near-term obvious potential supp/res factors on 1hr...the grey shaded zone is also co-existant on 4hr, as is the zone around tuesday's lows..

Tuesday lows @ 6322 area now the 76.4% of 6240-6590 (current intraday hi and hi of move) area was a bounce off the 100day sma on the daily t/f...

Trend remains up to the 4hr t/f and a strong up move off that 5707 low on daily above both the last 2 x LH's of it's downtrend.

G/L

 

[gamma]

No problem, just trying to gauge your thoughts as you mentioned exiting the long on the doji and then you mentioned the retrace. So I was wondering as you mentioned exiting on the doji, and not the retrace, whether you were looking to short the retrace.

I understand you are not shorting the retrace but why did you mention the retrace?

Just trying to learn my friend!

When the price is around a pivot or fib point I switch to lower frame time charts also keep an eye on the macd and rsi to see if they are turning down.
I also find between 10 and 12 am cable tends to retrace back up or down a bit but this is not always the case.
And finally from a mental point of view I find it exhausting to be in a trade I think one needs a rest before the the next fight.

Thanks for the explaination on the dollar index have been trying to improve my understanding of it as I think this is a good weapon to add to the arsenal.

 

[kaisen]

BBMAC/Gamma,

Do you take any fundamentals into consideration today? For example FTSE is down over 1% and commodity prices are down, CPI down etc?
Will that lend to a trigger of a reversal?

If so what are your guesstimates?

 

[Technically Fundamental]

BBMAC/Gamma,

Do you take any fundamentals into consideration today? For example FTSE is down over 1% and commodity prices are down, CPI down etc?
Will that lend to a trigger of a reversal?

If so what are your guesstimates?

Thats a slippery slope that has led to my numerous blow ups. Just wait to be told what to do. You can only be wrong if you form an opinion.

 

[kaisen]

Thats a slippery slope that has led to my numerous blow ups. Just wait to be told what to do. You can only be wrong if you form an opinion.

Thanks TF. I certainly do not look to trade the news etc but I am interested in possible triggers in the background as it were.

I whole heartedly agree that, to be honest, whatever my opinion on what the market should do based on fundamentals is not important, it is what the market makes of it and I should trade according to what the markets reaction is.

Just wondered whether it is a note to oneself to be mindful of. But at the end of the day the market will do what the market does.

 

[The Baptist]

GBP Break Out strength

YouTube - GBP Breaks Out to JPY and Euro Targets met

 

[Technically Fundamental]

You can watch the market fly in the minute or two prior to data releases so the chart gives away the figure in a much quicker time than you would be able to go digging it up. Then comes the problem of getting fills
Also, in my months learning this shizen I've not seen many imbalances etc correct themselves on an intra-day basis. Maybe if you have a good understanding of imbalances you can pick an instrument which is under/over valued and watch it but as far as taking that kind of macro trade... I personally can't see how it's possible for us retail traders.

 

[bbmac]

BBMAC/Gamma,

Do you take any fundamentals into consideration today? For example FTSE is down over 1% and commodity prices are down, CPI down etc?
Will that lend to a trigger of a reversal?

If so what are your guesstimates?

My trigger is purely technical...for contra-trend (ie pullbacks or complete reversals) they are based on the confluence of hi-probability repeating patterns of regular divergence/extreme readings with band deviation @ pre-identified potential supp/res and for Re-entry (to next t/f trend after a pullback) ie buy the dip/sell the rally...they are based on hi-probability repeating patterns of hidden dovergence and band deviation on the t/f below that the trend first exists upon and @ pre-identified potential sbr/rbs on the t/f above that it sets-up on...both with a price action trigger.

I am aware of the overall fundamental environment but it does not figure in my trading decisons...this said after the market's strong reaction to an intraday data release (s.) I would be more wary of trading contra-trend for any extended target unless there were a confluence of tech reasons to do so, as detailed above. Simplistically speaking; The sell the first hi buy the first dip -or- buy the first lo/sell the first rally after a strong reaction to a data release can so often work well.

G/L

 

[bbmac]

New intrday highs and a HH of the uptrend results from the 5min hidden-divergence based Re-entry (to next t/f trend after a pullback) @ the potential rbs/supp of the then 23.6% of the then 6342-6590 move up.

G/L

 

[bbmac]

The Daily chart shows the potential resistance zones to the upside of current price on this t/f, with the 76.4% fib of the main 7044-5707 move down @ 6728. Ahead of this the 76.4% fibfan of same move.

Price has breeched the descending resistance trend line on the daily as well as the 61.8% of the 7044-5707 move and is in an uptrend to the 4hr t/f with an upside breech too of the last 2 x LH's of the previous Daily downtrend

G/L

 

[bbmac]

The screenshot below shows that price has arrived at one of the 2 potential descending resistance trend lines on the weekly t/f...the 76.4% fibfan of the total 2.1162-1.3505, although not shown follows virtually the same line as the higher one.

G/L

Daily R3 here too:

 

[bbmac]

Price today @ 159% of it's 20day average pip range now;

Not neccessarily related to the above, This is the first potential rbs zone on 4hr at which I would look for 1hr hidden divergence based set-up and a 1hr price action trigger to get back with 4hr uptrend after a pullback (if indeed I was playing a 1hr trigger which I am not) In so doing and at entry I would look to ensure that the 4hr macd signal line is still above it's zero axis, and that at least the Daily is still pointing up..In this prev swing hi=prev res=potential rbs zone, the 38.2% of current 6240-6628 move with 50% of 6525-6628 a couple of pips below that 38.2%.

G/L

 

[bbmac]

Thurs 22nd Oct

Tight asian/overnight session sandwiched between the 1hr swing hi zone and prev 1hr swing hi zone below that has now provided support (RBS,) indeed where early London session support has been found..the 1hr chart below is how I am see-ing the potential supp/res factors on this t/f and as usual I shall be looking for repeating hi-probability set-ups on my trigger t/f +, with a pa trigger at these areas and particularly where they are co-existant with such potential supp/res factors on the 4hr t/f also.

G/L

 

[bbmac]

Not much of an overall price action-peak/valley trend on 5min at entry but 5min macd signal line crossed below axis and 30min/1hr poiting down so took a chance on a hidden-div based 1min Re-entry set-up into this dodgy 5min downtrend:

The 5min prev sw lo=prev supp=potential sbr zone is here:

Price sold down to the prev 1hr sw hi/lo zone circled below;

@ which a regular bullish divergence based set-up developed on the 1min trigger chart for another hi-probability trading opportunity;

So, a couple of quick hi-probability trades in early London session with +12 and +14 achieved.

Uk retail Sales data @ 0830am gmt

G/L

 

[bbmac]

3rd test of this previous 1hr swing hi=prev res=potential rbs zone that has now become a prev sw lo zone also...obvious demand here, but will be wary on any 4th test, wary of demand being erased by supply...

Trend remains up to 4hr t/f with yesterday's candle closing bullish and body engulfing bearish body of previous. Is there more upside to come?

G/L

 

[bbmac]

Current 1hr channel is shown in pic below, scenario A may play out with a bearish or bullish thrust candle close b/o of channel would be a hi-probability play, or scenario B = congestion-2nd b/o ie retest of channel before true b/o

G/L