Best Thread BBmac's Gbpusd thread

[bbmac]

1hr congestion channel breaks to the downside, price reacting to comments from Boe/Mpc member Tucker's comments...nice oscillator extremes and cci hook based Reversal set-up develops on 1min trigger @ the 6550 bids previously reported by mni, this before the hidden divergence based Re-entry to 5min downtrend developed after the pullback from the Reversal Extreme with pinbar trigger set-up..

This Re-entry to 5min downtrend @ a prev 5min sw lo =prev supp=potential sbr zone shown below;

Price challenging 23.6$ of 6240-6638 as I write this

G/L

 

[bbmac]

Thick and fast this morning, a great 1min regular bulliish divergence based Reversal set-up with bullish pinbar trigger below (supported by a 5min Reversal Extreme set-up as described in post above.) 1min set-up shown below:

This @ the prev 1hr swing lo=prev supp=potential supp zone, mni previously confirming that bids likely in that region

Flat now going into Uk retail sales data release..

G/L

 

[bbmac]

Worse than expected Uk Retail sales data causes the drop react...nice 1min Reversal Extreme set-up (set-up decribed in the posts above) develops @ the 6500 area bids previously touted by mni..for a quick +13 pip gain from 6513 ask..

Typical data react of buy the first dip/sell the first rally?

Hidden divergence building in the 1hr oscillators now

G/L

 

[gamma]

Hi bbmac,
Great analysis again,
I see a good exit point at the 50 fib you pointed out for a short on the break of the pivot

 

[bbmac]

Hi bbmac,
Great analysis again,
I see a good exit point at the 50 fib you pointed out for a short on the break of the pivot

Yeh price arrives at a prev 1hr (and 4hr) swing hi = prev res=potential rbs zone co-existant with 38.2% 6240-6638 and 50% 6325-6638,...also here but not shown on 1hr chart below is the ascending potential support t/line on 4hr;

A nice 1min triger bullish divergence based Reversal set-up shown below (supported by a 5min Reversal Extreme set-up, set-up described in posts above)

This as I read on newsfeeds of bids to 6490 with 'tech support 6480/85 and apparently UBS are short cable with a 6000 target and 6800 stop !? Mni talking about base of recent channel @ 6425 area and ahead of that 6445 possible support?

G/L

 

[bbmac]

You can see how the above 1hr prev sw hi=prev res=potential rbs zone is co-existant with an obvious prev sw hi=prev res=potential rbs zone on 4hr too..

G/L

 

[bbmac]

The 5min supprting set-up to the regular bullish divergence 1min trigger set-up is shown below...a Reversal Extreme, ie extreme oscillator/cci hook based set-up..

I had spoken in last post yesterday that this area may see a bounce and indeed 1hr hidden divergence is evident there..This said it follows 2 x LH and a L below the last HL of the 1hr uptrend, so concerning if holding long for any extended target above current 6638 Hi of the move, from this set-up? anything is possible though, lol

G/L

 

[bbmac]

This is what I am see-ing atm near-term on 4hr in respect of potential supp/res factors;

I have rejected the 5min hidden-divergence based set-up (re-entry back into 30min downtrend) Reasons are that, i. No 1min trigger Reversal set-up and ii. No pre-identified potential sbr.

You have to trade your triggers/set-ups only at the highest probability areas and only in the highest probability circumstances...

G/L

 

[bbmac]

current atr stats

G/L

 

[bbmac]

76.4% fib fan of the 7044-5707 drop and the base of the prev sw hi=prev res=potential res zone on the daily t/f provding the asian/overnight session resistance. 76.4% fib retrace level of same move is deeper in the zone.

G/L

 

[bbmac]

.... This is the first potential rbs zone on 4hr at which I would look for 1hr hidden divergence based set-up and a 1hr price action trigger to get back with 4hr uptrend after a pullback (if indeed I was playing a 1hr trigger which I am not) In so doing and at entry I would look to ensure that the 4hr macd signal line is still above it's zero axis, and that at least the Daily is still pointing up..In this prev swing hi=prev res=potential rbs zone, the 38.2% of current 6240-6628 move with 50% of 6525-6628 a couple of pips below that 38.2%.

G/L

That set-up formed as pointed out yesterday and despite the reservations re the 2 X Lh on 1hr it resulted in a 'with 4hr uptrend' follow thru to new highs...crucially the set-up formed @ an immediate HL in the 4hr uptrend..The set-up is shown below..

G/L

 

[bbmac]

1st 1min Re-entry (to next t/f trend after a pullback) of the day

5min begins an uptrend off the prev 1hr sw hi zone (RBS) leading to a pullback off 6685 level when a hidden divergence based 1min Re-entry to 5min uptrend develops @ the prev 5min sw hi=prev res=potential support zone shown below.

The 1min Re-entry set-up is here (A quick +20pips booked

Price is now deeper in the potential res zone on the daily t/f, discussed in a previous post today.

G/L

 

[bbmac]

Uk GDP number ...0830am gmt release

Upcoming Uk Gdp data has the potential to dissapoint. Conventional wisdom suggest that any print of 0.2% or over will see £ strength on the market reaction, but any flat print @ 0.0% or below will likely see £ weakness reaction ? 0.1%-well who knows, lol.

G/L

NB: Figure on the right is the previous, left is the forecast.

 

[bbmac]

Upcoming Uk Gdp data has the potential to dissapoint. Conventional wisdom suggest that any print of 0.2% or over will see £ strength on the market reaction, but any flat print @ 0.0% or below will likely see £ weakness reaction ? 0.1%-well who knows, lol.

G/L

NB: Figure on the right is the previous, left is the forecast.

QoQ -0.4%, YoY -5.2% were the actial #'s...how often do we see this,? ...a # is bigged up before the release only to dissappoint..big sell off ensues on reaaction to the data

G/L

 

[bbmac]

100 sma on the 1hr breeched in the data reaction as were the ascending support trend lines on 1hr and 4hr....and 23.6% of total recent 5707-6692 move up.

 

[bbmac]

This contraction in the Gdp (-5.9% peak-tvalley now) makes for an interesting discussion at the next Mpc re QE? ...which is why the sell-off in £, market fearing an extension to the current £175bln.

G/L

 

[kaisen]

100 sma on the 1hr breeched in the data reaction as were the ascending support trend lines on 1hr and 4hr....and 23.6% of total recent 5707-6692 move up.

Hi BBMAC, did you get any of the initial monster move?

I was putting two stop orders either side the PA before the news announcement (away from the action) with a view to one of the orders being filled in the right direction.
Sadly, as i have not done this before i cancelled the orders and didnt enjoy the surge!

I have made over 30 pips scalping cable this morning and should have scapled from mid 680´s but i thought i would sit out until after the news.

Couple of things if you would?

First, what is your view on the two stop strategy? (i dont want to try it next time only for it not to work based on my concern over indecision to an announcement and a choppy move)

Second, you mention the 100sma alot. Coming from stocks and indices i use 20,50 and 200ma on my charts. Would you mind telling me about the 100ma and whether you looking at any others?

Thank you greatly in advance.

 

[bbmac]

....Currently some demand visible around the 2 fibs: 61.8% 6240-6692 / 76.4% 6325-6692 but tone remains bearish now intraday with price at 160% of it's 20day average pip range now, 280pips off the 6692 Hi.

G/L

 

[bbmac]

Hi BBMAC, did you get any of the initial monster move?

I was putting two stop orders either side the PA before the news announcement (away from the action) with a view to one of the orders being filled in the right direction.
Sadly, as i have not done this before i cancelled the orders and didnt enjoy the surge!

I have made over 30 pips scalping cable this morning and should have scapled from mid 680´s but i thought i would sit out until after the news.

Couple of things if you would?

First, what is your view on the two stop strategy? (i dont want to try it next time only for it not to work based on my concern over indecision to an announcement and a choppy move)

Second, you mention the 100sma alot. Coming from stocks and indices i use 20,50 and 200ma on my charts. Would you mind telling me about the 100ma and whether you looking at any others?

Thank you greatly in advance.

Answering your questions in order you ask them;

1. I sold on the 0940am 1min candle in an imperfectly formed 1min Re-entry set-up (imperfect as macd showed no hidden div but osma/cci ok) so picked up pips on the downmove. I also bought on the set-up below @ the 2 fibs detailed in post above, but have exited for a small gain only, as it's going nowhere fast.

2. Straddling orders pre-data release used to be fair strategy but as always slippage etc can hamper such a strategy...I am rarely in a position ahead of market-moving data and if I am, my stop is @ b/e...I certainly don't straddle now, but will play the post data react.

3. I have 100 and 200sma on 1hr + charts, the 200 is considered by many to be the ' fair value ' ma as you know...and the 100 is widely used. they do not form part of any trigger for entry but they may form part of any support/resistance confluence and as a guide to the general tone of the market.

G/L

 

[kaisen]

Answering your questions in order you ask them;

1. I sold on the 0940am 1min candle in an imperfectly formed 1min Re-entry set-up (imperfect as macd showed no hidden div but osma/cci ok) so picked up pips on the downmove. I also bought on the set-up below @ the 2 fibs detailed in post above, but have exited for a small gain only, as it's going nowhere fast.

2. Straddling orders pre-data release used to be fair strategy but as always slippage etc can hamper such a strategy...I am rarely in a position ahead of market-moving data and if I am, my stop is @ b/e...I certainly don't straddle now, but will play the post data react.

3. I have 100 and 200sma on 1hr + charts, the 200 is considered by many to be the ' fair value ' ma as you know...and the 100 is widely used. they do not form part of any trigger for entry but they may form part of any support/resistance confluence and as a guide to the general tone of the market.

G/L

Sincere thanks for your reply kind sir.

You mention osma and i have tried googling this but not with great success. Could you tell me what osma is and, as i trouble you for the last time, what is rbs and sbr stand for?

I have found. i believe, MNI is Market News International.

This will help me keep on track with your posts

ATB!