Trading ES (Q1 2004)

[Finirama]

Takings ages...lucky we have T2W arcade to pass the time!!!

 

[frugi]

Blink and you miss it!

Could be a 123 setting up on the 10 min. But 1149 channel bottom and 61.8% from yesterday's ABC high will be stiff resistance I reckon. Tri target 1152/3ish.

 

[Finirama]

Got a limit sell @ 1,149.1 and a stop at 1,150.1

 

[Finirama]

Well...that didn't work to plan!!!!

 

[stoploss please]

I was convinced in was going down aswell.

 

[frugi]

Now that's what I call a 1-2-3! Hit tri/inv H&S target and 61.8% res (1 Mar hi to today's low) at 1152 now. Shame I screwed up in the morning or this would have been a good day.

I think the Fed may have stepped in with some concentrated futures buying / liquidity to defend the third fan line. They really don't want to see that fail.

Bit confused by this trend/non-trend distinction. I thought the morning had the hallmarks of a down trend day, 2:1 internals, SOX/COMP leadership etc. yet ES barely trended at all, instead coiling up into a triangle that ends up bursting upwards with savage force.

Is this an aberration day? (Asks just as China goes on holiday, timing eh!)

 

[hampy]

Frugi, I think China would say not a trend day, because Bix and Bkx too strong, holding up both the Dow and Spx.
I've been stopped out twice on shorts, so starting to think we are currently on wave 2 of a 5 wave up.

hampy

 

[stoploss please]

Trin

Hi

I know the Trin seems to be shunned in this room but looked at this 10 minute chart. As long as we stay beneath the trend line we are bullish.

 

[Quercus]

People (oops nearly said chaps then! )
Just read through this, and it seems that a lot of us were thinking on the same lines, no doubt Skim will put us all right later!
Just to make you all feel better I was stopped out on two shorts myself too.
Cheers
Q

 

[stoploss please]

Skim's one of the lads so I am sure she won't mind.

 

[hampy]

Cheers Q,
I think we've been going sideways for too long for this to be a 5 wave up.
Time for plan C, if I had one
hampy

 

[stoploss please]

Just reading back through the posts. According to the Oracle of the Dark Side, this congestion does not look topish. What do you guys and girls think.

 

[anmolway]

Hi stopl loss I also follow the trin to a certain extent and agree that the trendline can help to determine direction, but with it being over 1.0 is this likely to keep the bullish aspect under cover, ie limit the extent of the upward direction.

Just a thought, maybe nothing in it.

 

[frugi]

It's going to 1155 if 1150 holds? Lots of ND between indices and we've done 10pts up already though.

 

[Quercus]

Well...I certainly agree that it's congestion :cheesy:
Q

Edit; And now to be serious - I would have thought that with all that fresh air around the third spike, that it is toppy. Plus if we add in the Tick -ve div, and round it off with a nice bearish nature - there we are.
Chartman didn't name me Quercus Shorticus for nothing!

 

[stoploss please]

Inverse h&S put in

Inverse H&S folks

 

[hampy]

Well, The market certainly knows I'm a beginner and is showing me that you can read as much theory as you like, but until you start pressing that button regularly you know nothing!
Fortunately @ £1 per pt not too much damage being done, and my UK equities stiil performing quite well.
Anyway, todays Tick

 

[stoploss please]

Hamps

I have noticed a bullish and and bearish pattern in the tick MA.

Do you see those two W shapes at 10.35 and 12.35. They seem to work in certain conditions,

 

[hampy]

Now Today's ES.

I had seen both the double/triple top and the potential inverse H+S, so the 1st short was a complete punt and got what it deserved. ( - 2.1 )
2nd short on Tick/Es div, but dubious MACD. When will I learn to wait for a proper setup ( - 2.4 )
Better setup ( in blue ) did arrive but tick had hardly crossed the zero line, so elected not to take it. Patience may have yielded a couple of pts but after 2 losses I'd probably have been spooked out early.
I shall now go and write 100 lines 'wait for a proper setup'

Cheers, hampy

 

[hampy]

Slp,
No I hadn't noticed that. Have you sussed out how they work best ?
I shall look for your reply tomorrow, an early night beckons.

Nite all,
hampy