Predicting a MARKET CRASH Q1-3 by analyzing AAPL

Well, much to say about all this I work on W.D Gann methods of forecasting. I do not find in my forecast much of a stronger weakness coming this season. Again it should be a strong year if all proves to be true, but AAPL will either go through a correction or bounce back. In the least I know they should prove to move markets, but if they don't sell iphones perhaps they breakdown more. Will the market follow insync? Many bull markets have come still when the big guy had to go through a sector rotation. RIMM and NOK have been moving big lately, so this may as it sounds be over pessimism. The key is though if you know the overall direction of the markets, than as a mover you will know if AAPL will still move and shake.
 
CalvinLe55 said:
Well, much to say about all this I work on W.D Gann methods of forecasting. I do not find in my forecast much of a stronger weakness coming this season. Again it should be a strong year if all proves to be true, but AAPL will either go through a correction or bounce back. In the least I know they should prove to move markets, but if they don't sell iphones perhaps they breakdown more. Will the market follow insync? Many bull markets have come still when the big guy had to go through a sector rotation. RIMM and NOK have been moving big lately, so this may as it sounds be over pessimism. The key is though if you know the overall direction of the markets, than as a mover you will know if AAPL will still move and shake.
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The point is regardless of how AAPL fundamentals perform the stock will generally trend ahead of the market, or at the very least show insight into the market. Because if big money makes a point to begin selling off positions for the mod-term they would not leave AAPL out of the bunch.
 
Apple was no company I advise my clients once the stock went under $500 it was never consider. Plus I know some vibrational analysis being its 36th year in 2012 on 9/19/2012. The one thing about Apple is that it is a heavy weight, but according to what I know about the Heavens and the way it rules... Apple doesn't mean a thing. If the sky wanted it to go through a sector rotation, than that is the way nature determines such a thing. Also if unemployment numbers keep getting better, than the future just gets brighter as the housing market comes back into the business cycle strong. What is really going to slow us down? The answer is Apple in the long run too? :idea:
 
Even now after this months' bounce from YTD lows AAPL still appears saturated, I expect the unloading still isn't finished, and big money will be weary of loading up long-term positions through this year. This leads me to believe that a massive profit taking session will occur soon through the entire market maybe even this year and lead the market into a relatively sharp correction, it may even go as far as a panic and "double dip" recession, although I expect it to be more mild than the last if it does occur.
 
Mr. Crabs said:
Even now after this months' bounce from YTD lows AAPL still appears saturated, I expect the unloading still isn't finished, and big money will be weary of loading up long-term positions through this year. This leads me to believe that a massive profit taking session will occur soon through the entire market maybe even this year and lead the market into a relatively sharp correction, it may even go as far as a panic and "double dip" recession, although I expect it to be more mild than the last if it does occur.
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Mr. Crabs, its very possible for a correction although I find it hard to digest a 20% correction. If I find The Master Seal of 55, than it could be dangerous although with my experience not confirm yet.

Also what is the Star of David for? :eek:
 
CalvinLe55 said:
Mr. Crabs, its very possible for a correction although I find it hard to digest a 20% correction. If I find The Master Seal of 55, than it could be dangerous although with my experience not confirm yet.

Also what is the Star of David for? :eek:
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If the market corrects and a panic is hyped up then I think the bottom would be more than 20% down, S&P could plunge below $1,000.

What you got a problem with the star of David? It's an awesome symbol. What else do you expect some ulterior motive for putting it in my signature?
 
I am out 100% last Friday but I don't call a correction, because I bought the dip after today. Hope all goes well, but this is because I didn't get dent today. Rally is not over and nobody is in default just a slow down 85 billion still going strong. The U.S.A is still here and nobody is a world war... relax 1981 - 2001 Gold Bear Market means stocks benefit from the later today.
 
CalvinLe55 said:
I am out 100% last Friday but I don't call a correction, because I bought the dip after today. Hope all goes well, but this is because I didn't get dent today. Rally is not over and nobody is in default just a slow down 85 billion still going strong. The U.S.A is still here and nobody is a world war... relax 1981 - 2001 Gold Bear Market means stocks benefit from the later today.
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Right on healthy profit taking so we can break $1,600 this month. I think the S&P has a decent chance at that.

Volatility will be suppressed and the bulls will be back in action in no time IMO.

Impressive drop today though. Shorts finally got their day huh? I expect the covering should provide a nice cushion from the downside.
 
Mr. Crabs said:
Look at the 10 year chart just in relation to the price per share, the AAPL chart for this past quarter is eerily reminiscent of what it looked like in 2008 right before the major recession. :sneaky: IF history repeats itself again with another crash this year following the fiscal cliff, it will not be reminiscent to a 2008 crash as much as a 1991 crash, the one that followed the 1980's crash (which did actually resemble the 2008 crash) with a much more mellow stability creating correction. :cheesy:

Something is happening with the markets, they are in a major transitional phase according to hypotheses that can be deduced by looking at the basic charts as well as indicators, indices, etc... I went through some of the most major tells I could find in the market, I will be going through them as I see fit. :whistle:

First and foremost, I would like to point out something somewhat obvious - that AAPL shadows the market on a macro-scale. Considering the deep pocketed investors who influence AAPL are among the most "in the know" people of the world I am quite confidence in this assertion. :devilish:

The charts in AAPL make it obvious we've encountered a mod-term down-trend. :sleep: An obvious question is if traders and investors alike are cashing out on profits (and/or cutting losses, holding up the PPS for them to trade and exit positions and short sell as well), or accumulating and creating another wave of $$$ for traders and investors to ride. :!:
My opinion is (generally I have good foresight) not exactly conclusive at the moment, considering we are in the transitional phase. :confused: I will let the evidence speak to itself, minor a few details that you can review yourself in the future if you please, I would share your skepticism. :|

I'll start off with the basics of what is happening with AAPL stock as of now, just by looking at the charts.
- Price support at $500 may be vital, we have been hovering above it for almost 6 months. The price of AAPL hasn't been this cheap since we exited the recession.
- We appear to be building support near YTD lows on more solid ground but I predict that is just an illusion.
- MACD appears to be instigating an upcoming run, but appearances are just appearances, and currently the MACD is in a very inconclusive transition phase.

I did a bit more digging to see what my indicators alluded to, and I got many tidbits supporting my case that the current downtrend will continue through the mod-term.
- The short volume ratio increased sharply in November during our most recent bounce, as short-volume tends to do after a bounce, but as of now it is searching for support near the lowest price we have seen in years while the short volume ratio continues to stay elevated.
- SRSI illustrates that we are OVERBOUGHT despite being searching for support near the lowest price AAPL has seen in years.
- Stochastic Oscillator made a very bearish signal :idea: (I dubbed it the fake out rip) this month in my opinion, but I have been wrong before. :innocent:

If my prediction that AAPL breaks support is proven correct, then that may impact the market enough to send the DJIA down as well, everything seems to be signaling a storm is brewing, and it may be raining bears some time soon. :?:

I looked up a few more basic macro-market indicators to support my assumptions and thought I'd share it with you.

- Silver and gold appear to be coiling for a bounce, I would expect it too considering it's drastically undervalued ATM. I'm looking at some options for the NUGT Direxion DLY gold bull 3x. Calling long - shots. :clover:
- DJIA looks to be standing on the edge of a radical downward slope. :?:
- Direxion bear index appears to have bottomed out to continue an uptrend, while the bull appears to have topped out soon to decline into a recession.

It seems obvious to me we're in for a recession.

This is my first serious post up here peoples and I am a bit proud of it, what do y'all think? I'll elaborate on it some more on some other boards too, I really want to see what you peoples have to say about that fiscal cliff scare, I think there is more too it than fear mongering. :cool:
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The busts come round regularly but for different reasons sometimes ?
The George Soros's of this world are ready and waiting.
 
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