The REAL global warming

[zambuck]

....Yes that might put things in perspective...after years of 'great' time...!

...And I like that word - Global Equilibrium, as that is the crux of the matter and we may run away from it or design ways of escaping - but it will happen eventually...

...All Great Cultures did suffer from this aspect.....India was once a richest country...people were just falling over each other to just trade with them....

....Then they had 200 years of Mughal Empire and then 300 years of British Empire (both overlapping with dates) and at then end, the country was left as the poorest in the world....!

Says a lot isn't it..?....facing reality, and when it is against us, is always not readily acceptable..!

Seminal work by Arnold Toynbee - A Study in History - is a real eye opener.....But one needs about a year to read 12 volumes.....I was lucky enough to be able to do just that...Great fun to read...!

 

[Black Swan]

....Yes that might put things in perspective...after years of 'great' time...!

...And I like that word - Global Equilibrium, as that is the crux of the matter and we may run away from it or design ways of escaping - but it will happen eventually...

...All Great Cultures did suffer from this aspect.....India was once a richest country...people were just falling over each other to just trade with them....

....Then they had 200 years of Mughal Empire and then 300 years of British Empire (both overlapping with dates) and at then end, the country was left as the poorest in the world....!

Says a lot isn't it..?....facing reality, and when it is against us, is always not readily acceptable..!

Seminal work by Arnold Toynbee - A Study in History - is a real eye opener.....But one needs about a year to read 12 volumes.....I was lucky enough to be able to do just that...Great fun to read...!

The end of their dollar soaked empire is the biggest worry for the US elite, they invade countries when they dare sell oil in any other currency, they invade countries to protect, or interfere with there's and 'friendly' Europe's energy security...problem is the 'USSR' is still alive and plays a much better game of chess...

Clever move by Iran giving the development contract of their nuclear facilities to Russia and with moves like this afoot the real mission in Afghanistan could be rendered pointless..

Chinese, Turkmen, Kazakh, Uzbek presidents unveil gas pipeline

Chinese President Hu Jintao and his counterparts from Turkmenistan, Kazakhstan and Uzbekistan Monday jointly put into operation a natural gas pipeline linking the four nations.

At the ceremony in a gas plant near the Turkmen-Uzbek border, President Hu said the China-Central Asia natural gas pipeline is a model of sincere solidarity and mutually beneficial cooperation of the four countries. He said the gas pipeline is a carrier of goodwill for friendship and mutual benefits of the four countries.

With their hands on wheel of valves, President Hu and Turkmen President Gurbanguly Berdymukhamedov, Kazakh President Nursultan Nazarbayev and Uzbek President Islam Karimov turned on the flow of natural gas together in the gas plant on the right bank of the AmuDarya River.

http://news.xinhuanet.com/english/2009-12/14/content_12645369.htm

 

[Benton D Struckcheon]

Re: The REAL global warming - other facts

The actual INCREASE in CO2 production due to the influence of human beings is miniscule in the scheme of things. We are talking a few ppm, which happens to pan out at 2% to 4%. That is about the cyclical fluctuation due to natural influences anyway. Yet in terms of mass, it seems to us who are unused to dealing in the numbers, to be almost overwhelming.

Why don't you, for comparison, equate the tonnage of CO2 with say, the tonnage of N2 in the atmosphere ... then it would be seen for the scam that it is. And while you are at it, how about publishing how CO2 levels are balanced through the use of natural sinks like photosynthesis, oceanic absorption, and the natural ecosystem of the carbon Cycle?

I believe, if you are citing these figures, the onus is on you to prove them. Given that the science is settled in this area - citing Nature as some kind of propaganda tool is, to put it mildly, nuts - you are making implausible claims.
Prove the above. Cite some sources.
While you're at it, you might want to relate the tonnage of CO2 with the tonnage of N2 and explain why that's relevant. Looks like hand-waving to me, but maybe not. Just asserting that it might maybe somehow sorta be significant means precisely nothing.

 

[Benton D Struckcheon]

The end of their dollar soaked empire is the biggest worry for the US elite, they invade countries when they dare sell oil in any other currency, they invade countries to protect, or interfere with there's and 'friendly' Europe's energy security...problem is the 'USSR' is still alive and plays a much better game of chess...

Clever move by Iran giving the development contract of their nuclear facilities to Russia and with moves like this afoot the real mission in Afghanistan could be rendered pointless..

Chinese, Turkmen, Kazakh, Uzbek presidents unveil gas pipeline

Chinese President Hu Jintao and his counterparts from Turkmenistan, Kazakhstan and Uzbekistan Monday jointly put into operation a natural gas pipeline linking the four nations.

At the ceremony in a gas plant near the Turkmen-Uzbek border, President Hu said the China-Central Asia natural gas pipeline is a model of sincere solidarity and mutually beneficial cooperation of the four countries. He said the gas pipeline is a carrier of goodwill for friendship and mutual benefits of the four countries.

With their hands on wheel of valves, President Hu and Turkmen President Gurbanguly Berdymukhamedov, Kazakh President Nursultan Nazarbayev and Uzbek President Islam Karimov turned on the flow of natural gas together in the gas plant on the right bank of the AmuDarya River.

http://news.xinhuanet.com/english/2009-12/14/content_12645369.htm

The USSR - Russia - is a hopelessly dysfunctional supply region: the only things they produce that the rest of the world is interested in is raw materials, and raw materials only. Brainless stuff. Who cares if they play a better game of chess? No one.
Ditto for the stans cited in your hopelessly paranoid and misinformed post. China wants their nat gas. No one would care about them if not for the accident that they're sitting on those supplies.

 

[dcraig1]

and if/when that inevitable scenario happens can you imagine the devestating effect on our way of life in the supposed developed Western world? The simple move down to a 'global' equilibrium wage would require the developing nations average wage growing by 100%, 50 quid a week to 100 and ours dropping by 400%...

Yes, that is one logic of modern capitalism, or globalization or whatever we want to call it, in the drive for lower labour costs. But on the other hand, western capitalism having evolved under the pressure of the deprivations of the world wars, the Russian revolution, the depression etc, has struck if you like, an "historic bargain" with the working and middle classes in western countries to provide a reasonable standard of living in the interests of social cohesion.

There is clearly a quandary here don't you think? I certainly don't know what the end game is, but the stresses and strains are starting to show already.

 

[dcraig1]

Simple interactive graphic showing the state of play at the Copenhagen meeting:

http://climateinteractive.org/scoreboard


There are other good simulations on the site too.

 

[montmorencyt2w]

Re: The REAL global warming - other facts

I believe, if you are citing these figures, the onus is on you to prove them. Given that the science is settled in this area - citing Nature as some kind of propaganda tool is, to put it mildly, nuts - you are making implausible claims.
Prove the above. Cite some sources.
While you're at it, you might want to relate the tonnage of CO2 with the tonnage of N2 and explain why that's relevant. Looks like hand-waving to me, but maybe not. Just asserting that it might maybe somehow sorta be significant means precisely nothing.

Science is settled?

I think if the leaked emails, code and data from the UEA CRU show anything, it is that the science is far from settled. Not that this is the only evidence that the science is not settled.

"The science is settled" is one of those mantras that get trotted out from time to time, like "unprecedented warming", or "ice-free North Pole" (never mind that it's been ice-free before now), that don't actually mean anything when you examine them closely.


Meanwhile, this is an interesting article:

http://strata-sphere.com/blog/index.php/archives/11824

The momentum that built up behind the man-made global warming fad (and it is nothing more than an unproven hypothesis surrounded by a silly fan club) has not allowed the basic approach to be tested or challenged. You had a movement build up around an idea, which launched the idea into ‘established fact’ before the idea was validated. It probably will never be validated because the methodology is flawed to its core – as I will explain in painful detail.

To create a global temperature index for the past 30 years – and then project that back to the 1880’s (when global temp records were began) and then project it back centuries before that – is not trivial. And in my opinion the current approach is just plain wrong.

I take this position as someone who works ‘in space’ – where we have complex and interrelated models of all sorts of physical processes. And yet we have to keep refining the models to fit the data to do what we do. Climate science naively (and ignorantly in my mind) does just the opposite; it keeps adjusting the data (for no good reason) until they get the result they want!

For this comparative exercise Al Gore, a genius in his own mind, provides the perfect analogy – gravity. Yes Al, it’s there. But we still can’t predict how a body will travel through the atmosphere or space to an accuracy that is stable beyond a few seconds (for the atmosphere) or days (for Earth orbits). Our window of certainty is not months, seasons, years, decades, centuries or millennia. And yet gravity is very well understood and simple mathematically.

If the rocket scientists can only predict the path of an object orbiting the globe for 7 days, what sane person thinks a hodge-podge of randomly accurate and aging sensors around the globe can measure a global index, let alone predict the future or unravel the past? It cannot. But what ’scientists’ do to the data to pretend they can is downright silly.

 

[Black Swan]

The USSR - Russia - is a hopelessly dysfunctional supply region: the only things they produce that the rest of the world is interested in is raw materials, and raw materials only. Brainless stuff. Who cares if they play a better game of chess? No one.
Ditto for the stans cited in your hopelessly paranoid and misinformed post. China wants their nat gas. No one would care about them if not for the accident that they're sitting on those supplies.

Priceless comedy gold..you obviously didn't get the "USSR" irony, or the chess reference...sigh...Can I ask what securities you trade?

 

[montmorencyt2w]

Simple interactive graphic showing the state of play at the Copenhagen meeting:

http://climateinteractive.org/scoreboard


There are other good simulations on the site too.

That 4.8°C rise depends on the positive feedbacks built into the climate models.
What if it isn't so?

http://joannenova.com.au/2009/12/the-one-flaw-that-wipes-out-the-crisis/#more-4656

CO2 is a greenhouse gas, and it warms the planet. The modellers guessed that as the world warmed, more water would evaporate, and the rising humidity would lock in more heat. Makes sense. Humid nights are warmer than clear nights.

This is called “feedback” — carbon warms us, which lifts humidity, which warms us even more, at least in theory. But water is complex and fickle. Humidity can stay ‘humid’, or turn into low clouds, high clouds, or fall out as rain, hail or snow. And they all have a different effect.

Without the effects of feedbacks to amplify carbon’s minor warming, there is no disaster, and that’s exactly what the observations tell us. Lindzen found that as the planet warms it gives off more radiation. Spencer found that as the planet warms, we get fewer high clouds. Paltridge found that humidity levels have fallen. The missing hot spot shows the models are wrong. There goes almost all of the warming. The models exaggerate by a factor of six. The 3.3°C scare is really only about half a degree of extra warmth.

 

[dcraig1]

That 4.8°C rise depends on the positive feedbacks built into the climate models.
What if it isn't so?

http://joannenova.com.au/2009/12/the-one-flaw-that-wipes-out-the-crisis/#more-4656

This particular blog is a fine example of what is wrong with so many of these denialist blogs.

The first paragraph begins:

"Researchers made guesses about humidity and clouds in the early 1980s and they built these guesses into their models. We now know they were wrong, not about carbon, but about water in the form of humidity and clouds. Here’s how the models can be right about carbon and wrong about the climate."

The reality is "we" don't know they are wrong at all about the role of water vapor and positive feedback. THERE IS NO SUCH FACT. Just citing two or three papers does not make it a fact, and the implication that mainstream climate science is relying on "guesses" made in the eighties is just nonsense. It's as if there has been the sound of mainstream climate scientists resounding around the planet as they collectively slap their foreheads and gasping "Ohhhh Noooo!!!" as their "guesses" made in the eighties have been finally been exposed.

On the contrary, there has been plenty of work on this topic eg

http://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2008/11/081117193013.htm

Which observationally confirms the amount of water vapour in the atmosphere using NASA satellite data and confirms figures that are used in climate models.

The fact is that mainstream climate science very strongly asserts that water vapour is a strong positive feedback. It is not a question that they are unaware of papers by Spencer etc etc which somehow have been unearthed by some hard working denialist blogger. They are well aware of them, and consider them to be WRONG.

So, like so many of these revelations (it's the sun, it's cosmic rays blah blah), this "revelation" is nothing of the sort.

If somebody wants to believe this stuff, then go ahead and do so. But please cut the crap.

If you want to see some of Spencer's stuff ripped to shreds go here:

http://www.realclimate.org/index.php/archives/2008/05/how-to-cook-a-graph-in-three-easy-lessons/


and some further reading on water vapour:

http://www.realclimate.org/index.php/archives/2005/04/water-vapour-feedback-or-forcing/

 

[dcraig1]

To see Ian Plimer (one of the darlings of the denialists) exposed watch this interview:

http://www.abc.net.au/lateline/content/2009/s2772906.htm

Exposed not just for the untruths published in his book, but also as a pompous git

In the interest of full disclosure it should noted that Plimer is on the boards of several mining companies and has substantial financial interests in mining.

 

[maiden22]

Just citing two or three papers does not make it a fact

You might try informing the IPCC about that .

 

[maiden22]

In the interest of full disclosure it should noted that Plimer is on the boards of several mining companies and has substantial financial interests in mining.

Fail to see the relevance of this to the truth or untruth of his statements. But since we're playing that silly game:

In the interests of full disclosure, scientists have substantial financial interests in producing work that agrees with the "consensus" lol, especially if they wish to get their hands on government funding.

 

[Black Swan]

Comments section in The Guardian

So, Warmistas! Your big, shiny conference is a godawful shambles, your crypto-anarchist fringe has come crawling out of the woodwork to discredit you and your scientists have been outed as a bunch of zealots and charlatans who will do almost anything to further their flawed agenda. It's been a bad Autumn for you lot, huh?
And what do you do? Blame Denmark. Talk about losing the plot...

Whenever the "activists" start getting active it's a sure sign of frustration and that no treaty will be sign that will reverse the ravages of Global Warming. It's tragic, really. I had high hopes that the Big Giant Screen to be erected in space and block out the scorching rays of the sun would become a reality. I also liked the idea of launching frozen asteroids into the sun to reduce it's harmful temperatures. A scientist friend of mine, a very devout AGW Believer, calculated that if we attached rockets to the equator, we could increase the speed of the Earth's rotation and the sun would then not linger on any one place for very long. It would also have the happy effect of reducing my workday from 8 hours to the far more civilized Gallic 3.5 hours and I wouldn't have to convert to Marxism and join a union. How cool would that be? In our own small way here in Arizona many of us are banding together to fight Global Warming and it seems to be working rather well. Our technique is to get together in a large (clothing optional) group out in the desert and beat tom-toms and chant prayers to Gaia while partaking in drafts of sacramental distilled cactus juice. For those of you who keep close tabs on the weather in Arizona, you have undoubtably noticed that it has been unseasonably cold as of late, with mass quantities of snow in the higher elevations. This cooling trend began immediately after we started chanting and proves beyond a shadow of a doubt that what we do is having a beneficial effect on the climate. A week ago one of the young (very attractive) young wymyn in our group composed a chant especially for Copenhagen and was very delighted with the huge amount of snow that fell the next day. If everybody everywhere in the whole wide world followed our example we could definitely reverse Global Warming. I will soon be releasing a DVD of our most effective chants along with the drum rythm patterns and Margarita recipes. I will provide it free to all who ask. If everybody in the world gets together, we can reverse Global Warming and watch the ice return to the glaciers. If too much ice forms and the earth cools a little too much, which might reduce crop yields and spark a global famine, might I suggest you just play my special chants backwards? :clap:

The new world order ushered in by globalization, NAFTA, the collapse of a viable left in world politics, the spread of neoliberalism....this relatively new configuration of the world doesn't see any benefit in reporting about repression unless it serves the interest of neoliberalist global hegemony. When the repression is perpetrated by the haves it is generally minimized in the media or ignored altogether. When it is perpetrated by the have-nots, it receives front-page prominence. What astute observer of world events could possibly fail to see this blatant discrepancy?

This conference is degenerating into farce. Denmark is showing that it cannot cope with peaceful protest. The Friends of the Earth chair gets thrown out. The Copenhagen police seem to think that they are in a Terminator movie, and the real isssues that concern us all, are getting lost amid shabby deals being done behind closed doors. The losers will be us all, in the long run, and the developing world today and tomorrow. The winners will be the bankers and corporations that will profit from all the juicy greenwashing schemes that are up for grabs. European democracy has suffered a severe blow in Copenhagen. The Danes seem to think they are playing Lego while the world burns...


http://www.guardian.co.uk/environment/2009/dec/16/copenhagen-protest

 

[dcraig1]

You might try informing the IPCC about that .

Now, that's just getting silly!

Here is an interesting little quote from Andrew Dessler's blog:

"Interestingly, it seems that just about everybody now agrees water vapor provides a robustly strong and positive feedback. Roy Spencer even sent me email saying that he agrees.
"
http://www.grist.org/article/Looking-for-validation

Roy Spencer is the author of one of the three papers mentioned in the blog entry claiming that there is no positive feedback from water vapor.

 

[jaspertrademaster]

I still maintain that aside from some minimal changes made by the evolution of mans existence, the highs and lows of temperature trends and other factors are just the natural progression of the earth and its climatic history. Only those wanting to impose scare tactics to justify their own wealth accumulation promote it.

 

[Black Swan]

Georgie Porgie Monbotty goes into super psuedo mode

well he's tried everything else, once your credibilty has been smashed why not....

This is the moment at which we turn and face ourselves. Here, in the plastic corridors and crowded stalls, among impenetrable texts and withering procedures, humankind decides what it is and what it will become. It chooses whether to continue living as it has done, until it must make a wasteland of its home, or to stop and redefine itself. This is about much more than climate change. This is about us....

The meeting at Copenhagen confronts us with our primal tragedy. We are the universal ape, equipped with the ingenuity and aggression to bring down prey much larger than itself, break into new lands, roar its defiance of natural constraints. Now we find ourselves hedged in by the consequences of our nature, living meekly on this crowded planet for fear of provoking or damaging others. We have the hearts of lions and live the lives of clerks.

The summit's premise is that the age of heroism is over. We have entered the age of accommodation. No longer may we live without restraint. No longer may we swing our fists regardless of whose nose might be in the way. In everything we do we must now be mindful of the lives of others, cautious, constrained, meticulous. We may no longer live in the moment, as if there were no tomorrow

http://www.guardian.co.uk/commentis...ec/14/climate-change-battle-redefine-humanity

 

[montmorencyt2w]

Re: Georgie Porgie Monbotty goes into super psuedo mode

well he's tried everything else, once your credibilty has been smashed why not....

This is the moment at which we turn and face ourselves. Here, in the plastic corridors and crowded stalls, among impenetrable texts and withering procedures, humankind decides what it is and what it will become. It chooses whether to continue living as it has done, until it must make a wasteland of its home, or to stop and redefine itself. This is about much more than climate change. This is about us....

The meeting at Copenhagen confronts us with our primal tragedy. We are the universal ape, equipped with the ingenuity and aggression to bring down prey much larger than itself, break into new lands, roar its defiance of natural constraints. Now we find ourselves hedged in by the consequences of our nature, living meekly on this crowded planet for fear of provoking or damaging others. We have the hearts of lions and live the lives of clerks.

The summit's premise is that the age of heroism is over. We have entered the age of accommodation. No longer may we live without restraint. No longer may we swing our fists regardless of whose nose might be in the way. In everything we do we must now be mindful of the lives of others, cautious, constrained, meticulous. We may no longer live in the moment, as if there were no tomorrow

http://www.guardian.co.uk/commentis...ec/14/climate-change-battle-redefine-humanity

I can't quite decide whether that belongs in Pseud's Corner or Pollyfilla.

Let's ask these guys:

http://wattsupwiththat.files.wordpress.com/2009/12/global_warming_protesters.jpg

 

[Black Swan]

Re: Georgie Porgie Monbotty goes into super psuedo mode

I can't quite decide whether that belongs in Pseud's Corner or Pollyfilla.

Let's ask these guys:

http://wattsupwiththat.files.wordpress.com/2009/12/global_warming_protesters.jpg

I think it must be sent to Private Eye, it is your duty... :innocent:

 

[Gumping]

Re: Comments section in The Guardian

Whenever the "activists" start getting active it's a sure sign of frustration and that no treaty will be sign that will reverse the ravages of Global Warming. It's tragic, really. I had high hopes that the Big Giant Screen to be erected in space and block out the scorching rays of the sun would become a reality. I also liked the idea of launching frozen asteroids into the sun to reduce it's harmful temperatures. A scientist friend of mine, a very devout AGW Believer, calculated that if we attached rockets to the equator, we could increase the speed of the Earth's rotation and the sun would then not linger on any one place for very long. It would also have the happy effect of reducing my workday from 8 hours to the far more civilized Gallic 3.5 hours and I wouldn't have to convert to Marxism and join a union. How cool would that be? In our own small way here in Arizona many of us are banding together to fight Global Warming and it seems to be working rather well. Our technique is to get together in a large (clothing optional) group out in the desert and beat tom-toms and chant prayers to Gaia while partaking in drafts of sacramental distilled cactus juice. For those of you who keep close tabs on the weather in Arizona, you have undoubtably noticed that it has been unseasonably cold as of late, with mass quantities of snow in the higher elevations. This cooling trend began immediately after we started chanting and proves beyond a shadow of a doubt that what we do is having a beneficial effect on the climate. A week ago one of the young (very attractive) young wymyn in our group composed a chant especially for Copenhagen and was very delighted with the huge amount of snow that fell the next day. If everybody everywhere in the whole wide world followed our example we could definitely reverse Global Warming. I will soon be releasing a DVD of our most effective chants along with the drum rythm patterns and Margarita recipes. I will provide it free to all who ask. If everybody in the world gets together, we can reverse Global Warming and watch the ice return to the glaciers. If too much ice forms and the earth cools a little too much, which might reduce crop yields and spark a global famine, might I suggest you just play my special chants backwards? :clap:

:clover:

Man, that post was so spiritual!! It reminded me of a spirit guardian I contacted in the spirit world more recently.....he was called spirit.

This is the problem with scientists...they only study the physical world, when it is obvious that we are all composed of spirit. In spiritual terms, I am at least the equivalent of a scientist, and with my spirit-eyes, I can see the raping of Gaia right in front of me. These capitalist pig-dogs with their materialism and corporate greed are denying their true nature to destroy us all!

Open your third eye, and you will understand.

When you reply to this, I would be honoured if you reply using my spirit-name....which is spirit.....