Oh right so you're swing trading on a 15min chart. I would've thought hourly or 30min charts at the most.
At the moment I intraday trade with 5min chart and am currently looking at 1hr chart for the swing trade.
Anyone here using WD Gann method for swing trading?
Looking at support on the hourly at 3980 resistence at 4040.
Any others have any different? Also have a resistence at 4060.
Viks
At the moment I intraday trade with 5min chart and am currently looking at 1hr chart for the swing trade.
Anyone here using WD Gann method for swing trading?
Looking at support on the hourly at 3980 resistence at 4040.
Any others have any different? Also have a resistence at 4060.
Viks
timsk
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Hi Viks,
Historically, the thread has comprised mainly swing traders using daily charts. The reasons for this are twofold:
1. Most here are familiar with Marc Rivalland's book, and his ideas have been at the heart of the thread. If you like Gann, you'll want to read Rivalland (assuming you haven't done so already) as he bases a lot of his ideas on Gann's work.
2. Most people (but by no means all) use a spread betting account to trade the index. However, there was a widely held view that it's next to impossible to day trade using a SB broker, so most people swing traded over days/weeks.
I stress that both of the above are historical generalizations to give you an idea of the provenance of the thread (now in its 3rd year?) Both ideas are a little out of date as more traders have shortened their timeframe to trading intra day, made possible by tighter spreads and better trading platforms offered by the SB firms in an increasingly competitive market.
Tim.
Geofract
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I am using Daily charts, with 15 min for entry on swing trades. My method is based on Marc Rivalland's swing trading book. His methods are quite similar to Gann, though with a few variations. But with the FTSE up and down all over the place of late, I have stuck to day trades.
A question for the experienced people watching this thread: Are we now technically in a downtrend, due to yesterdays breach of the swing low on the 23rd Janaury?
Cheers,
Ollie
Thanks for all the information guys it's very helpful.
I will be swing trading soon. Made a good technical analysis last friday of the Ftse falling at least 100 points which I was correct about. Didn't want to trade it as I wanted to see what would happen. Looking at the hourly I'm still waiting for the next move.
Viks
I will be swing trading soon. Made a good technical analysis last friday of the Ftse falling at least 100 points which I was correct about. Didn't want to trade it as I wanted to see what would happen. Looking at the hourly I'm still waiting for the next move.
Viks
timsk
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Ollie,
The answer to your question is it's dependant upon two things: how you define a trend and the timescale you're trading. The two candle charts on the attachment are weekly and monthly timeframes respectively. The weekly has a green trendline drawn in as there was a tentative higher swing low at the end of January which, as you yourself pointed out, has now been breached. For me, according to the weekly chart, the index is in sideways drift mode and price really needs to breach either the bloo S/R lines for the trend to be established on way or the other. Having said that, look at the monthly chart. Is there anyone anywhere who would say anything other than the index is clearly and emphatically trending down? I very much doubt it!
Tim.
Attachments
I have also gone to day-trading as the swing legs have featured so many false starts. There is so much fear in the market and people are closing long positions as soon as we have an up day, short positions vice versa. Its not just fear of recession and eflation causing markets to go down - the bearish must be afraid the FOMC or BoE or ECB or Obama will make surprise announcements that drive the market up.
Downtrend since breach of low 23/02? Yes, confirmed by the S&P and Dow.
Geofract
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Thanks Tim and Tomorton for your answers and charts, much appreciated.
As a newbie, it’s good to know that my understanding agrees with the experts. I wonder if we will see more range bound activity, below 4000, and above 3650 (that being the swing low of the 27th Oct) before breaking lower... we shall see. For what’s it’s worth, my 1st fib target for a downward move is 3675, the 2nd is 3,505
Looking again at my charts, the swing low of the 2nd feb was breached this Tuesday, so that could have been a short entry point. Though I will ask the experts again; is it wiser to wait for a 3+ bar pull back for an entry?
I had a quick look at Rivallands site, he’s been in downtrend mode since 14th Jan, which makes sense, though the swing high of the 6th feb had me in an uptrend. Anyway, he has a continuation of trend signal on the 10th feb, due to the breach of 4243. Could somebody explain that signal if possible, I can’t quite understand that?
Thank you gents,
Ollie
As a newbie, it’s good to know that my understanding agrees with the experts. I wonder if we will see more range bound activity, below 4000, and above 3650 (that being the swing low of the 27th Oct) before breaking lower... we shall see. For what’s it’s worth, my 1st fib target for a downward move is 3675, the 2nd is 3,505
Looking again at my charts, the swing low of the 2nd feb was breached this Tuesday, so that could have been a short entry point. Though I will ask the experts again; is it wiser to wait for a 3+ bar pull back for an entry?
I had a quick look at Rivallands site, he’s been in downtrend mode since 14th Jan, which makes sense, though the swing high of the 6th feb had me in an uptrend. Anyway, he has a continuation of trend signal on the 10th feb, due to the breach of 4243. Could somebody explain that signal if possible, I can’t quite understand that?
Thank you gents,
Ollie
Ollie - Experts! You must mean Tim!
I try and avoid speculation on FTSE ranges and targets, I wouldn't take a position on the basis of it and it just clouds my judgement. Taking on board too much noise is an awful habit and I consciously avoid such things as the business TV channels. I aim to follow the trend, and the trend goes where it goes (very zen I know, but I can't see why I would buy something that isn't going up or sell something that isn't going down).
Tuesday was not a bad short entry point. I would not wait for a 3-day pullback to confirm a continuation signal: the continuation signal is confirmation in itself of an earlier signal anyway.
Rivalland's signal based on a breach of 4243 refers to the low of the previous day, 09/02, a swing high. It is a lower swing high than the previous, so a sell signal. Actually, the date of the previous swing high could be the contentious thing here - I read it as way back on 06/01, so I only see two swing highs so far in 2009. Whereas if you see 17/02 as a continuation sell signal, that probably means you take 02/02 as a swing low?
Either way, trend is down.
timsk
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Hi Ollie,
Experts at what? Second thoughts, don't answer that!
Joking aside, depending upon your definition of an expert, I'm not one on account of the fact that I'm not a consistently profitable trader. On the other hand, arguably Tom is one, as I believe he is a consistently profitable trader. Either way, don't be fooled into thinking that a longstanding member with lots of pretty coloured dots below their name is meaningful in any way. Sadly, it isn't!
tim.
Hi Tim
Your profile says you're a trader by occupation. May I ask if this means that you make a living from it, or is your profile out-of-date and you are currently a consistently unprofitable trader by occupation, with a separate means of bring home the bacon?
What is a consistently profitable trader? Any timeframes?
cheers
ps Have you seen the Dow signal service thread, where people seem to be doing ok (wondered about it myself as another possible stream... a bit of diversification of methods ie follow someone else lol)
Your profile says you're a trader by occupation. May I ask if this means that you make a living from it, or is your profile out-of-date and you are currently a consistently unprofitable trader by occupation, with a separate means of bring home the bacon?
What is a consistently profitable trader? Any timeframes?
cheers
ps Have you seen the Dow signal service thread, where people seem to be doing ok (wondered about it myself as another possible stream... a bit of diversification of methods ie follow someone else lol)
timsk
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Hi Donkers,
Tim.
Very observant of you! My profile is indeed out of date now. I was a full time day trader of U.S. uquities throughout 2008, but made a decision to stop trading in December as I wasn't making any headway. It was disappointing but, looking on the bright side, my account remains completely in tact and I did a whole lot better than many so called professionals! I'm due to start a new job on Monday, so my trading will revert back to being an evenings and weekend type of hobby. I've completely re-evaluated my whole approach and, as things stand currently, I look set to swing trade U.K. stocks using weekly charts. Ever so slightly different from scalping the likes of AAPL and RIMM via direct access on a 1 minute chart!Your profile says you're a trader by occupation. May I ask if this means that you make a living from it, or is your profile out-of-date and you are currently a consistently unprofitable trader by occupation, with a separate means of bring home the bacon?
A very good question and I'm bu88ered if I know the answer. I guess one simple one might be to plot an equity curve and if it trends up - you're profitable and if it trends down - you ain't.
I don't really like the idea of following someone else's calls for the reason that you are always beholden to that person, company or website etc. If I made money doing this, I'd live in fear that one day the service will stop or they'll hike up the fees etc. As a short term bit of fun to make some pocket money I guess it's fine, but I wouldn't take it more seriously than that. I want the satisfaction of cutting my own key to unlock the riches of the market, rather than having to rent or borrow someone else's.
Tim.
Hi Ollie,
Experts at what? Second thoughts, don't answer that!
Joking aside, depending upon your definition of an expert, I'm not one on account of the fact that I'm not a consistently profitable trader. On the other hand, arguably Tom is one, as I believe he is a consistently profitable trader. Either way, don't be fooled into thinking that a longstanding member with lots of pretty coloured dots below their name is meaningful in any way. Sadly, it isn't!
tim.
I second that. I don't think that there are many experts, anyway, in the financial world.
If I've been expounding a shorting policy to everyone for the past six months, I really cannot see much that is particularly clever, or expert, in that. After all, the economy is in a crisis, so what else is to be expected? But, yet, people still continue to draw their lines in an effort to explain the reasons for doing what they do.
Someone on a Forex factory thread said, "Leave your brains at the door". That about sums it up.
Split
barjon
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Hi guys,
Wot happened while I was away sunning myself in Gran Canaria then - ooh look we've changed trend :cheesy:.
All our players should have made a bit on the long trade (above) and Billy will have promptly gone short (around 4030-35) as the 2 February swing low went and the trend changed to down. The others wait for a retracement.
good trading
jon
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I've got support at 3740, but I'm hoping that it won't go there in one day, although it's not beyond the bounds of possibility.
If it was to open firm on Monday I would not be long, but would be trying to short from 3927 upwards. It would depend on the pattern I get on a lower TF chart as to my timing.
The Spanish papers are full of Gordon's miseries this morning. How could I, possibly, be anything else but short?
Split
MACD histogram for swing signals -
Recently Timsk and I were chatting about using MACD to generate entry signals - something I had never really used before. We were doing this in the context of day trading but of course most folks use MACD on an EOD basis. His thoughts have prompted me to watch for when the FTSE100 EOD histogram bars start to reverse back towards zero as a possible entry condition for swing trades.
Looking back over the last 3 months, I see on my chart 10 Rivalland signals (though always room for some debate on this). I have 2 strong resulting uplegs and 2 downlegs, and an on-going (but just started) continuation of a downleg, so 5 of the signals were dubious at best. At first I looked to see if MACD gave a better success rate - charting where the default Sharescope MACD bars (13,26) start to revert back towards zero gave me 8 signals in the same period. 4 MACD signals confirmed the 4 good Rivalland reversal signals (this use of MACD does not give continuation signals): another 2 tallied with failed Rivalland signals, 1 was a false signal which was not given by Rivalland and 1 was a good signal which my Rivalland chart did not print.
On the face of it, 5 out of 10 for Rivalland, but 5 out of 8 for MACD. Looking at the chart, both methods failed to give me a Buy signal on 29/12 for that mad end of the year rally so perhaps it should be 5/11 and 5/9.
So, why don't I post a chart here and say look at that, stop using Rivalland and go over to MACD? Its because I don't believe the big risk is getting long or short on a bad signal. I suspect over a lengthy period backtest and actual usage, both methods are comparable in profitability, and that's the key, not signal success rate. I feel the biggest risk is not being long as early as possible in an uptrend and not being short as early as possible in a downtrend. some of the signals, maybe even more than half, will be false, but we are traders not LTBH and we can deal with that - but even the best trader won't make a profit if they don't even have a position. Another nice thing about this use of MACD as opposed to using the cross-over interpretation - it gives signals early in the move: getting aboard late in a trend is high risk of missing the best profits.
Still, I am pleased with this simple MACD method, thanks Timsk, and in the future I intend to take both signals for swing trades (visitors to the thread will know I already take others like key reversals and ID/NR4 etc.
Recently Timsk and I were chatting about using MACD to generate entry signals - something I had never really used before. We were doing this in the context of day trading but of course most folks use MACD on an EOD basis. His thoughts have prompted me to watch for when the FTSE100 EOD histogram bars start to reverse back towards zero as a possible entry condition for swing trades.
Looking back over the last 3 months, I see on my chart 10 Rivalland signals (though always room for some debate on this). I have 2 strong resulting uplegs and 2 downlegs, and an on-going (but just started) continuation of a downleg, so 5 of the signals were dubious at best. At first I looked to see if MACD gave a better success rate - charting where the default Sharescope MACD bars (13,26) start to revert back towards zero gave me 8 signals in the same period. 4 MACD signals confirmed the 4 good Rivalland reversal signals (this use of MACD does not give continuation signals): another 2 tallied with failed Rivalland signals, 1 was a false signal which was not given by Rivalland and 1 was a good signal which my Rivalland chart did not print.
On the face of it, 5 out of 10 for Rivalland, but 5 out of 8 for MACD. Looking at the chart, both methods failed to give me a Buy signal on 29/12 for that mad end of the year rally so perhaps it should be 5/11 and 5/9.
So, why don't I post a chart here and say look at that, stop using Rivalland and go over to MACD? Its because I don't believe the big risk is getting long or short on a bad signal. I suspect over a lengthy period backtest and actual usage, both methods are comparable in profitability, and that's the key, not signal success rate. I feel the biggest risk is not being long as early as possible in an uptrend and not being short as early as possible in a downtrend. some of the signals, maybe even more than half, will be false, but we are traders not LTBH and we can deal with that - but even the best trader won't make a profit if they don't even have a position. Another nice thing about this use of MACD as opposed to using the cross-over interpretation - it gives signals early in the move: getting aboard late in a trend is high risk of missing the best profits.
Still, I am pleased with this simple MACD method, thanks Timsk, and in the future I intend to take both signals for swing trades (visitors to the thread will know I already take others like key reversals and ID/NR4 etc.
TheBramble
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Tom, if you're going to play with these damn fool TA indicator thingies, have you considered looking at a 5.35.5 on the MACD and combining the 'move toward the zero line' with a moving away of the histogram from it's signal line ('showing some air' for want of a better term)?
What impact would that have on your useful/less-than-useful signals over that same period?
I've attached an annotated example (really just at random) with the 'air' showing between the histogram and the signal line as the histogram starts its move toward the zero line. hth
What impact would that have on your useful/less-than-useful signals over that same period?
I've attached an annotated example (really just at random) with the 'air' showing between the histogram and the signal line as the histogram starts its move toward the zero line. hth
Attachments
Hi TheBramble - I'm sure it doesn't help me but that's because I can't understand the point, and not necessarily because there isn't one.
I too have an aversion to indicators, partly responsible for my immediate adoption of Rivalland swing trading years ago when I read his book. So maybe I'm not the best person to ask for an assessment on this - can anyone else help?
I too have an aversion to indicators, partly responsible for my immediate adoption of Rivalland swing trading years ago when I read his book. So maybe I'm not the best person to ask for an assessment on this - can anyone else help?
