swingin' the ftse: 2009

[tomorton]

Took the buy signal at 4200 but took the profits as we turned over early pm as US still looks weak to me. As we close below 50% of the FTSE range I won't re-enter long and carry that over the weekend - unless the US turns extremely bullish after our close and finishes strongly.

Another amazing reversal upwards in the US session for a strong close. Unfortunately I missed this yesterday evening (didn't have an order in place - tut, tut, tut) so am now flat with the SB market 50+pts above the London close. Not willing to pay this premium I intend to await price volatility and weakness on Monday am so I can finally get in long.

 

[tomorton]

PS: London may be drifting without a US lead on Monday as its a holiday for Martin Luther King Day over there. Tuesday is Presidential Inauguration Day so I'm not even going to guess what the US markets do about that - I'm guessing a low volume bounce like a relief rally but I'm not trading on the basis of such an unknown.

 

[barjon]

tomo

FTSE has been weak against the DOW this week and it'll be interesting to see how it fares on Monday left rather more to it's own devices, particularly given the strong finish in the US that you mention.

So far as our intrepid traders are concerned, both Billy and Sam are now holding long. Billy with a full position from 4205 and Sam with a half position at the same price (he'll build up to a full position after a close and hold above 4200).

Clarence waits for a close above 4200 before thinking about entering the fray. One reason for his caution is that he has one warning light lit about the up-trend by the failure to make a new high above 4640 on the last push. He is comforted that the retracement has not so far exceeded 62% which would have lit a second light.

good trading

jon

 

[SEMM]

Short term trend

hi, ollie

Strictly speaking I still have us in uptrend until 3734 goes.So our boys will still be looking for a long - good job the opening gap didn't allow them an entry today!! They'll be in some trouble if today turns out to a swing low - it'll be a hell of a big stoploss.

good trading

jon

hi bb,

see chart in first post on thread. The swingtrend remains up until the last substantive swing low goes.

yesterday gave a potential swing low and a long entry will be signalled if price moves above 4200.

good trading

jon

I think we will see a few days of upswing now - but the markets have teteered with some dangerous levels there! I spent most of yesterday losing money trying to pick the bottom!

However if we take out this weeks lows (I don't think this will happen for a little while now) then the Nov lows are the next target - and beyond!

bit of confusion in method signal imho

from Marc Rivailands own site

trend short term = days


SWING CHART TRENDS ( Signals Changed: 16 January 2009 @ 11:13 )

Swing Chart Signals
FTSE 100

Trend: Down (since breach of 4200 on 14.01.09).

Last signal: 14.01.09 Change of trend signal on breach of 4200.

Trend Change Point: 4676.

Dow Jones Industrial Average

Trend: Down (since breach of 8346 on 14.01.09)

Last Signal: 14.01.09 Change of trend signal on breach of 8346.

Trend Change Point: 9089.

Nasdaq 100

Trend: Down.

Last signal: 15.01.09 Change of trend signal on breach of 1157.

Trend Change Point: 1287.




Andy

 

[SEMM]

@ support or test lower

Market Reversals And How To Spot Them


mix and match analysis

volume fut peaked 16 th Dec 08 High 4425

dropped off and price tested lows of range on low vol

point of control going back to last lows 2003 @ 4445 (see recent in last post)


volume dropped right off in new year, market becomes efficent in week / day (60 day)

value 4200 - 4400 upper 1/3 of month range, month not efficent

decending trend line breached, pullback into @ the minute



retrace being watched will consider Long entry IF ! pick up in volume @ levels of last post

will post full details IF an entry is made

minimum size (Bear market) expect move to be long from lows of days accending channel

anythings possible ?

200-400 value zone

obvious 1st target for long is unfair high @ 4688 fut will be watching price volume action intra day to update

see price action being range bound in ascending channel (days) give or take while price moves across month bear channel to set up Bear fall on Swan event or the like


watching price action intra day when action of interest, today its not (capped no volume) payrolls out later so posting to kill time


Opinion expressed in this post could be updated at very short notice and is just for FUN


Latter

Andy

nb: SPX and INDU .... mmmmmmmmmmmmmm :-( not as good imho but we will see


End of week:

Friday 9th : Volume on actual low 70/30 neg split, not much reaction to the awful number in the USA, Ftse move 100pts from top to tail off Dow open. both sides of the low volume range which developed if thats the right word on the run up = hence no support offered on fall (no energy in intra day base)

well watched the decline and lost 18 pts on ftse on Friday (1 long attempt back to value / not swing trade) with Hoggums and others fishing at early doors I woud suspect given the price action after 09:15

price action was - vicious chop chop after entry which remained for rest of day

main decline last hour (1600-1700) early bird longs closing out for weekend after a disappointing day :?:


next week = no thoughts or bias will watch and wait

narrow range couple of days, market POC @ mid range (3 day vol / mp)

volume into the days lows and close on thursday was high so previous day shorts could have been hopping off the elevator I guess under the cover of the close :?:

latter :clover:

Andy

 

[barjon]

Andy

I guess Rivalland is regarding the 19/12 action as a swing low (in which case a useful long triggered on 30/12 at around 4335) but I have ignored the action in the run-up to Christmas which is generally suspect. It'll be interesting to see how it pans out.

good trading

jon

 

[tomorton]

I don't take 19/12 as a swing low either. I therefore see the current trend as UP, based on ascending swing lows 27/10 and 21/11 (and putatively 16/01), plus ascending swing highs 04/11 and 06/01.

However, I am sceptical about committing large resources to a long position here, as Friday was such a weak finish in London, while the Dow and S&P breached their recent swing lows on 14/01, and so I moved their current trends from UP to UNCLEAR.

 

[SEMM]

A picture says a thousand words

Charts

month week day

month rsi 14 @ 30 down
week rsi 14 turned over @ 50 line down
day rsi 14 breach of trendline turning up / horizontal


day SPX chart

pin on good volume @ potential range low followed by low volume test on Friday ..

Friday ! ?

if trend taken to be down, could get a nice pop to value area (200-400 ish) with a real nice narrow range bar for 1st cont of trend signal = re-test of lows ......... getting ahead of myself

Again !

anything can happen

have a good week :clover:

latter

Andy

 

[barjon]

................So far as our intrepid traders are concerned, both Billy and Sam are now holding long. Billy with a full position from 4205 and Sam with a half position at the same price (he'll build up to a full position after a close and hold above 4200).

Clarence waits for a close above 4200 before thinking about entering the fray. One reason for his caution is that he has one warning light lit about the up-trend by the failure to make a new high above 4640 on the last push. He is comforted that the retracement has not so far exceeded 62% which would have lit a second light............

good trading

jon

both Billy ( - 120)and Sam ( - 60) stopped out and Clarence pats himself on the back for his caution.

good trading

jon

 

[tomorton]

Today demonstrated how swing trading is not working for me right now in these choppy markets. We got the swing low on Wednesday out of yesterday's price action, but we breached the stop early this morning with no chance for profit, hardly even for break-even. I had not gone long as we had such a weak FTSE close yesterday and I don't have the US charts as showing uptrends.

Sticking with daytrading for the time being, though that's not exactly breaking the bank.

 

[barjon]

Hi Tomo

Yeah, I'm the same (daytrading).

That's two failed trades on the trot for the basic swing approach (hasn't happened in the two and a bit years of the thread(s) ).

Cautious Clarence waiting for a close above the swinglow high before joining the action seems to be the man at the moment - we'll see. Billy and Sam will be trying another long around 4075 - through gritted teeth I dare say

good trading

jon

 

[barjon]

andy

nice - but not sure where that all leaves you

you still daytrading?

cheers

jon

 

[barjon]

"Billy and Sam will be trying another long around 4075 - through gritted teeth I dare say"

TREND DOWN !

your own chart shows Crimbo vol drop off and swing low = BREACHED !

should be short not looking for longs ????????????????????????



Andy

:cheesy::cheesy: yeah, but unlike Rivalland I'm still in uptrend since ignored Christmas period.

jon

 

[SEMM]

Where does it leave you Jon

Hi Jon

ON ! fftopic: :help:

Where does it leave you Jon

Trend was down on last day of November ....... when did Crimbo start volume was ok from what I can see on your chart up till the 10-15 th Dec 2008 ?

do understand what your saying regards Crimbo break, even allowing for break the 14 sma filter would have rolled over imho

traffic lights supplied to help clear the matter up ~

Failure to make new high - first light

Penetration of potential swing low - second light

Penetration of substantive swing low - third light

Close below substantive swing low - fourth light

Ample time (and/or %age) below substantive swing low - fifth light
successfull first retracement - sixth light


Latter

Andy

 

[SEMM]

Just charts no nonsense

Just charts

no nonsense

have a good week :clover:

Andy

 

[barjon]

Hi Tomo

Yeah, I'm the same (daytrading).

That's two failed trades on the trot for the basic swing approach (hasn't happened in the two and a bit years of the thread(s) ).

Cautious Clarence waiting for a close above the swinglow high before joining the action seems to be the man at the moment - we'll see. Billy and Sam will be trying another long around 4075 - through gritted teeth I dare say

good trading

jon

well, both Billy and Sam are in and riding. Clarence is cursing a bit and looking for a pullback to get in.

good trading

jon

 

[PokerBrat]

Well after a couple of false signals, looking like a good trade Jon.

I'm still having coffee with Clarence bemoaning our lack of trigger finger.

 

[francisfinley]

FTSE chart

1HR chart

 

[barjon]

Clarence has his pullback (assumed) and will enter around 4230 if it goes that way. Sam took half off the table at 1:1 lifting stop on remainder to break even and will look to re-instate that half at the same time.

Billy hasn't looked at it since he moved his stop to breakeven.

good trading

jon

 

[francisfinley]

Video - CNBC.com from 26th jan

4315 was the 50% retrace from 3950 from the down leg starting 6th jan.

the ftse is playing out TA beautifully.