swingin' the ftse: 2009

[SEMM]

10 day Sushi Roll Buy = smelly fingers ?

Market Reversals And How To Spot Them


mix and match analysis

volume fut peaked 16 th Dec 08 High 4425

dropped off and price tested lows of range on low vol

point of control going back to last lows 2003 @ 4445 (see recent in last post)


volume dropped right off in new year, market becomes efficent in week / day (60 day)

value 4200 - 4400 upper 1/3 of month range, month not efficent

decending trend line breached, pullback into @ the minute



retrace being watched will consider Long entry IF ! pick up in volume @ levels of last post

will post full details IF an entry is made

minimum size (Bear market) expect move to be long from lows of days accending channel

anythings possible ?

200-400 value zone

obvious 1st target for long is unfair high @ 4688 fut will be watching price volume action intra day to update

see price action being range bound in ascending channel (days) give or take while price moves across month bear channel to set up Bear fall on Swan event or the like


watching price action intra day when action of interest, today its not (capped no volume) payrolls out later so posting to kill time


Opinion expressed in this post could be updated at very short notice and is just for FUN


Latter

Andy

nb: SPX and INDU .... mmmmmmmmmmmmmm :-( not as good imho but we will see


End of week:

Friday 9th : Volume on actual low 70/30 neg split, not much reaction to the awful number in the USA, Ftse move 100pts from top to tail off Dow open. both sides of the low volume range which developed if thats the right word on the run up = hence no support offered on fall (no energy in intra day base)

 

[barjon]

Well, Bold Billy has his pullback and will be looking to re-instate his closed half tomorrow. He would like to see a down opening (quite likely since DOW gave up some after FTSE close) and then a recovery when he will enter when (if) it goes above today's close. If he gets it then the stop on whole position will go to around 4410.

good trading

jon

Billy didn't get his re-entry on Thursday but took it yesterday @ 4489. Even for Billy that was a bit bold given it was non-farms day and he's kicking himself a bit for not scratching it when the initial euphoria wore off. Nonetheless he's now re-instated a full position and he's got a stop on the lot @ 4408. If price falls to this level it will be a third retracement bar and set up a potential new long trade.

Since Thursday's candle was the second retracement bar, Billy did consider closing his running half at around 4500 rather than re-instating his closed half. Had he had a full position running he would almost certainly have closed half at this point as an insurance policy. His decision to re-instate was an on balance one and influenced by the bounce from the 4430 level (resistance becomes support) and the positive hammer type candle it drew.

good trading

jon

ps: be patient, Andy, thread's still alive and kicking :cheesy:

 

[tomorton]

Frustrating whipsaw action Friday, leaving the FTSE showing an 'up' day on my Sharescope Rivalland chart, though with a low close. The US indices are more clearly negative, also closing near their lows of the day and all showing Friday as a putative swing low. I think a short entry here would look like chasing the price down, unless we get a high opening on Monday for some reason followed by a collapse. Good prospects for a convincing pull-back though to a low long entry point.

 

[PokerBrat]

That Billy is one crazy guy!

I'm starting to feel a bit bearish again, as the US markets are resting on support and given the huge sell off on Weds and again yesterday, I wouldn't be surprised if they broke down and we saw the last month as a bear flag pattern.

 

[tomorton]

The picture is very confused, but on the bright side, this should lead to plenty of short-term and intra-day opportunities. Only long-term bulls and bears are taking a significant risk entering here.

The US.
The fall yesterday was steep, but intra-day on the US markets it mostly occurred quickly after the jobs figures were released. The rest of the day, trade was sideways but with a sharp sell-off to clear positions into the bell. Volume on the day was low, and down on previous days and has been declining all week as the indices fall. US indices remain above their prior swing lows.

Nevertheless, recent direction have been down, all my US EMAs are negative and inverted, and all were breached by the close yesterday.

I expect London to be all over the place, volatility is rising again since Snoozemas, and I intend to trade intra-day reversals on the FTSE100. I intend to follow Sun Tzu and wait for the market to come to my entry point, and attack where there is no defence.

 

[Joules MM1]

The picture is very confused, but on the bright side, this should lead to plenty of short-term and intra-day opportunities. Only long-term bulls and bears are taking a significant risk entering here.

The US.
The fall yesterday was steep, but intra-day on the US markets it mostly occurred quickly after the jobs figures were released. The rest of the day, trade was sideways but with a sharp sell-off to clear positions into the bell. Volume on the day was low, and down on previous days and has been declining all week as the indices fall. US indices remain above their prior swing lows.

Nevertheless, recent direction have been down, all my US EMAs are negative and inverted, and all were breached by the close yesterday.

I expect London to be all over the place, volatility is rising again since Snoozemas, and I intend to trade intra-day reversals on the FTSE100. I intend to follow Sun Tzu and wait for the market to come to my entry point, and attack where there is no defence.

the price action on the uk or us markets may appear confused for some however saying they are confused and being in a confused state when reading them are two different things....

.....the futures desks for the US set-up price to lift just prior to (and on) the news trigger and on that lift the sell-into-strength began ....a basic shake n bake....that sell-into-strength continued well into the first 25 mins of the cash session....the jobs news spike and sell-into evented 60 mins prior to the open......this is critical from an execution pov....the next question then becomes; now that the friday action looks like a sell signal is that a reversal set-up for monday? ....the COT looks like a lot of weaknees are bottom picking.....the moving averages are useless and dont tell you if programme trades are closing longs to sell or buying to close a short....the oex m/a is in a diff spot to the spx m/a so what does that tell you......not much really but can give an impression if you read and also confuse if you look to such things as a reliant to execute......


.....be aware there are young traders reading you.....your coloured bars present you as a trader of specificity.....maybe the question worth asking is what was the driver behind fridays action? Too much emphasis is placed on volume without understanding the context of time of day and the day itself and what returning traders are doing.....we are at the start of the new year which requires its own context and the context of the whole "buy to close shorts or buy to go long" which are two very different ball-games.....



I traded the premarket spike, purge + cash sell....

 

[barjon]

hey, joules - long time and it's good to see you here

good stuff as usual

good trading

jon

 

[Joules MM1]

hey, joules - long time and it's good to see you here

good stuff as usual

good trading

jon

G'day, Jon

always like to see how your baby is going.....been reading since its conception or is that inception....

cheers mate

 

[barjon]

Billy's gone @ 4408.

Not a bad trade overall, despite losing 81 on the re-entry of his closed half.

Position 1 long @ 3950
close 1/2 @ 4430 = 480/2 = +240
re-enter 1/2 @ 4489
closed @ 4408 = -81/2 = -40.5
closed running 1/2 @ 4408 = 358/2 = +179

Overall + 378.5

Todays bar should finish up as the third retracement bar and Bold Billy, Sound Sam and Cautious Clarence will be looking for a long signal.

good trading

jon

 

[PokerBrat]

So Barjon, which of your three pseudonyms is setting up for a long entry tomorrow, based on a break of todays close?

I wonder how you view the price closing below the previous swing high @ 4430? It makes it a higher risk trade for me. I like the Dragonfly Doji candle, but I'm not sure about going long on a break of the high, because it could easily be triggered by some intraday noise, only to continue its journey downwards.

Also the price is currently hung up on a trendline that I have from the recent swing low, so I will be looking intraday for a break above and then a retracement back to this area before I go long.

 

[barjon]

Hi PB

Assuming no upward gap opening to complicate matters. Billy will likely anticipate the break with an initial half-position if the intraday action suits and then build it up to a full position on the break. Sam will buy (full position) around 4412. Clarence may wait for a close above today's high or buy on a small pullback if 4430 goes convincingly.

good trading

jon

 

[Geofract]

Now that 4190 has gone, with such dramatic effect today, is this considered confirmation of a new downtrend. And would I be right to think that Sound Sam will wait for a 3 bar + pullback, before going short?

Does anyone use any indicators with their daily charts? I use a Stochastic indicator, 39,2,28 - odd settings I imagine, but the slow line is quite useful for illustrating the wave up and down of each trend. When the slow line is close to, or in over/under bought, a change of trend often occurs shortly after... though sometimes the line does ride the ceiling, as it were.

I'd be interested if anyone else has indicator setups to help them?

Btw, really enjoying all these FTSE Swingin' threads. I would contribute more, but frankly have much to learn yet

Ollie

 

[barjon]

hi, ollie

Strictly speaking I still have us in uptrend until 3734 goes.So our boys will still be looking for a long - good job the opening gap didn't allow them an entry today!! They'll be in some trouble if today turns out to a swing low - it'll be a hell of a big stoploss.

good trading

jon

 

[brokerbot]

Anybody else up just now ? ...thoughts on open at 8am ?

barjon i would be interested to know how you are working out that we are still in an uptrend are you referring to weekly charts to come to this conclusion and why wait for a break of 3734 why this number ? ...hopefully it is not related to your post count.

 

[minime69]

ftse ment to be up 60-70 points. not so sure it will hold.

 

[tomorton]

Massive recovery in US markets in second half yesterday has left a hammer candlestick at the foot of a downleg so early UK gain was always likely. However, I now have US indices charts as having fallen out of uptrends as S&P and Dow breached their most recent swing lows (the Nasdaq's are less clear). If we make a swing low on the FTSE today I will take the signal but the greater scope could be for a reversal into a bearish afternoon after an initial US rise, once banking news settles in.

 

[barjon]

hi bb,

see chart in first post on thread. The swingtrend remains up until the last substantive swing low goes.

yesterday gave a potential swing low and a long entry will be signalled if price moves above 4200.

good trading

jon

Anybody else up just now ? ...thoughts on open at 8am ?

barjon i would be interested to know how you are working out that we are still in an uptrend are you referring to weekly charts to come to this conclusion and why wait for a break of 3734 why this number ? ...hopefully it is not related to your post count.

 

[ralph_909]

good trading..!

 

[Hoggums]

I think we will see a few days of upswing now - but the markets have teteered with some dangerous levels there! I spent most of yesterday losing money trying to pick the bottom!

However if we take out this weeks lows (I don't think this will happen for a little while now) then the Nov lows are the next target - and beyond!

 

[tomorton]

Took the buy signal at 4200 but took the profits as we turned over early pm as US still looks weak to me. As we close below 50% of the FTSE range I won't re-enter long and carry that over the weekend - unless the US turns extremely bullish after our close and finishes strongly.