swingin' the ftse: 2009

[timsk]

This is mainly for the benefit of dr.blix and anyone else who is open minded to the idea that maybe, just maybe, moving averages and hand drawn trend lines don't actually provide support and resistance. For those who are wedded to their beliefs and are convinced that I'm wrong, please don't read the attached pdf, as I'm so not wanting any more arguments!

Tim.
P.S. Sorry folks, there's a correction.
No. 3 on P3 should read: 'it is only after a HL is created' - and not HH is created. Apologies.

 

[dr.blix]

thanks for taking the time to post that tim.

certainly seems quite an emotive issue

 

[tenbobtrader]

Your Right Tim !

dr blix

Your more right imho

"What matters most is how well you walk through the fire - Charles Bukowski"

 

[tenbobtrader]

change of subject

anybody for the inside bar or its hikkake brother ?

 

[Splitlink]

You're right, Tim!

 

[Splitlink]

change of subject

anybody for the inside bar or its hikkake brother ?

Noooo :smart:

I think I've done enough research for today.

 

[tenbobtrader]

always time for a bit more Split

new leaf (must keep an open mind at all times)

dr blix

this chart of yours ............

good trading Split

later

 

[barjon]

mmm, well I'd say it doesn't matter whether you favour horizontal s/r, or trendlines, or fib50%, or swing highs/lows, or whatever rocks your boat. All we're looking for by our own different lights is a reason to enter and then it's down to trade management.

good trading

jon

 

[tomorton]

I think we have lost a post - I am sure tenbobtrader pointed out a bear flag. that is what it looks like on the intra-days, and indeed, the swing chart is pointing downwards.

 

[tenbobtrader]

sorry thought the thread was dead

I think we have lost a post - I am sure tenbobtrader pointed out a bear flag. that is what it looks like on the intra-days, and indeed, the swing chart is pointing downwards.

good spot Tomorton

pretty flag"y

but other majors are not confirming ........ Yet

Ftse hanging out on its own

 

[timsk]

P&F Chart, 3 Box Reversal, 25 pt

For ol' times sake I attach a P&F chart.
Curiously, the three green X's were created today as, according to ProRealTime, today's high was above 4,300. This is where P&F charts can throw one off the scent, as today was in fact a down day overall, closing in the bottom half of the 200's. While the P&F chart closed up, bar and candlestick charts closed down. For the P&F chart to start to look bullish, price will need to rise back above the important 4,300 resistance mark and then breach the high of the previous column of X's at 4,375. As it is, price only has to fall to 4,175 to breach the low of the previous column of O's. This would also place it in the lower half of the BB channel which is significant to devotees of the indicator, as price has a tendency to bounce between the two bands. With the weekend coming up and Wall St. drifting lower this afternoon, it all looks pretty bearish to me, In spite of the current column of 3 green X's.
Tim.

 

[tomorton]

Hi Tim - I agree the PRT P&F chart seems to be laying a falsely bullish traiL I have a Sharescope P&F set-up for the FTSE using the standard 1% box, 3-reversal settings. This shows a column of 6 O's, from 4483 15/06 down to 4223 26/06. The chart is showing a triple top sell pattern. Other charts look bearish. Or perhaps the right terminology would be the other charts suggest bear trade opportunities. Including (at the risk of raising this thorny question again) the one with steeply descending trend channel from 10/06. This line is so steep, IF (stressing the IF) continued, it would take the FTSE to 0 on 01 December: remember you read it here first!

 

[tomorton]

The market has an overall bearish tendency at the present and I was wondering what would on the one hand contradict this or on the other enhance it. Some commentators put much faith in confluences of TA indications signals on different charts: could be some chart terrain to look out for very soon -

Support - S&P is finding recent support along rising 50EMA (maybe a contentious idea straight away, but look at the chart), the Dow also though slightly less clearly demonstrated. This coincides with recent support for the FTSE from the unfilled gap 4193-4218, 29-30/04.

Resistance - 200EMAs of major charts. The May-June range highs and January highs: on the S&P chart these two levels coincide, the FTSE and Dow didn't quite get to test the earlier highs yet.

 

[tomorton]

A bit more research and poking around this morning reveals more on the S&P - nice H&S setting up since 08/05 with peak at 11/06. If verified, this points towards 800-810, equivalent to FTSE 3700, possibly within 3 weeks.

I also find tenbobtrader's hikkake pattern mentioned by Alan Farley in Master Swing Trader - he calls it a Fakeout and doesn't give it much attention, but I like its easy recognition rules. I don't like the distance from entry to stop-loss but that need not be prohibitively risky. Well done tbt.
Maybe this pattern will also sometimes print as a pin-bar as heavily discussed elsewhere on the site?

 

[tenbobtrader]

thanks Tomorton,

I like it because shows the other side of the coin or trade, helps you remember there are always two sides to an argument

any intra day traders might want to reasearch it a little bit more (H1 M15 & M5) good for spotting those contra runs to S & R imho that the ftse makes on a regular basis in the afternoon shift

market fuel building perhaps before the US open


Good trading next week

Andy

 

[timsk]

For an assessment of the U.S. - Oscar is always good value for money and entertaining too.
Enjoy!
YouTube - 06/27/09 Weekend Webinar

 

[tomorton]

I love watching Oscar - he also has the integrity and confidence to come on and apologise when he gets calls wrong.

 

[dr.blix]

the naughty boy, he's using trend channels...you should tell him they don't mean anything timsk, before he blows his account! :cheesy:

(just kidding sir )

 

[timsk]

the naughty boy, he's using trend channels...you should tell him they don't mean anything timsk, before he blows his account! :cheesy:

(just kidding sir )

It's a trend channel dr.blix, as in HH's and HL's, not a S&R channel! If I catch him referring to it as a S&R channel, I shall not hesitate to e-mail him and point out the error of his ways!!!
:cheesy:

 

[dr.blix]

blimey, i've a lot to learn timsk...what's the difference?!