swingin' the ftse: 2008

[barjon]

new low for the move today giving another potential swing low with potential long entry just beyond 5790 if it goes in that direction.

good trading

jon

evenin' all

Everyone in then? Or in and out maybe?

good trading

jon

 

[black bear]

In out in out in out in out in out in out

evenin' all

Everyone in then? Or in and out maybe?

good trading

jon

hi jon

you no me to well Jon, in out in out in out in out, send myself dizzy some days,

all works out in the end

Hope the bank of England as more good news for you Long swingers tomorrow, Dow holding nice, and looks like a late dash to the finnish as I typo or.......

sleep well, I will

 

[timsk]

A drop of a mere 32 points tomorrow will generate a double bottom sell signal and the chart as a whole will change from bullish mode to bearish mode - with bells on.

Well, well, support held, so the double bottom sell signal at 5675 was not triggered. Instead, Friday's P&F high at 5800 comprising the infamous one day column of just three bloo 'X's was taken out, generating a double top buy signal at 5825. The P&F chart remains bullish. Hats off to Jon, Tom and anyone else who took their long trades - I really didn't think it would happen! Of those of you who are now long, might I enquire where you've placed your stops?
Tim.

 

[tomorton]

Always thought it would be bullish but today was amazingly strong. Long intra-day at the open for early trade, though the strength of the fall in the first 90 minutes was a surprise. Long over longer term swing trade: the usual stop at the extreme of the swing low is too far away for me so in situations like this I default to a trailing stop 1.5% behind.

We are driving towards another US holiday weekend - has anyone observed this sort of bull-run commonly occurring before long weekends?

 

[barjon]

.....................Of those of you who are now long, might I enquire where you've placed your stops?.................
Tim.

hi, tim

I was out today and it was a surprise (pleasant as it turned out) to see that it had triggered. Initial stop miles away at 5680 with reduced position size to compensate. Now at b/e in case of overnight mayhem, but I'll be moving it up in the morning given the chance. Half should have already come off the table at 5903, but it didn't because I didn't have the order in - not expecting that snowball to survive the heat

good trading

jon

 

[black bear]

hi jon

you no me to well Jon, in out in out in out in out, send myself dizzy some days,

all works out in the end

Hope the bank of England as more good news for you Long swingers tomorrow, Dow holding nice, and looks like a late dash to the finnish as I typo or.......

sleep well, I will

breaking news update errrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrr Dow poor finnish off its highs at speed

into injury time and still a chance for a late run up hill, will keep interested parties informed
sbs marked down to pivot @ 5835 ish

last thing ................ a chart ftse hrs

bit better sbs have ftse at above pivot 860 ish and Dow at Pivot at close

 

[tomorton]

Dow broke the series of 4 spinning tops with a strong upward move. However, this collapsed back nearly half the day’s range and formed what resembles an inverted hammer. Though somewhat bullish, it is disconcerting that the index could not maintain its highs and gave up so much ground to the close, falling 40% from the high. The FTSE in isolation suggests strong upward price action, extending the upward move in train at the close. However, the Dow's late weakness suggests an early pull-back from the highs by both indices. Keeping my FTSE March long open, which doesn't look too bad, at original position size: have also entered buy above and sell below current price - the breakfast shift in London could go either way.

 

[timsk]

Reversal of Fortunes?

I don't usually post mid week - well, a chart anyway but, after my ramblings at the weekend and then my VERY negative comments about last Friday's 8th's minimum column of three 'X's, it's worth noting the exact opposite has printed today. In other words, we have a minimum number of three red 'O's which, potentially, is a very bullish sign. So long as the index does not fall to 5800 or below and manages to rise to 5925, a new double top buy signal will print. This, added to the failure of the bears to breach support at 5700 (horizontal red line on chart) makes for a much more bullish outlook and bring cheer to the bulls - at least in the short term.
Tim.

 

[black bear]

I don't usually post mid week - well, a chart anyway but, after my ramblings at the weekend and then my VERY negative comments about last Friday's 8th's minimum column of three 'X's, it's worth noting the exact opposite has printed today. In other words, we have a minimum number of three red 'O's which, potentially, is a very bullish sign. So long as the index does not fall to 5800 or below and manages to rise to 5925, a new double top buy signal will print. This, added to the failure of the bears to breach support at 5700 (horizontal red line on chart) makes for a much more bullish outlook and bring cheer to the bulls - at least in the short term.
Tim.

Hi Tim

no expert at all so forgive interuption and probably irrelevant thoughts of mine as per

just looked at p&f chart :?:

looks like a big cont pattern :?: sort of pointy wedge hanging on for grim life

 

[tomorton]

Dow and S&P completely bullish Wednesday, little fall from open and both finished very near day's highs. FTSE, however, looked tentative and failed to match Tuesday's high, so significantly lagging US indices. So, expecting FTSE to gap higher in the morning I am long intra-day. Course, it may then have a regular attack of timidity and fall back, but must surely push higher as US open approaches. Should be third up day in swing upleg, several indices approaching 50EMA, S&P skirmishing with 2007 lows, and we should see FTSE re-attempt 6000. Could be quite bullish if we establish bridgeheads above these various obstacles. Remain long from swing trade 12/02.

 

[black bear]

re-capture of openhour lows

Dow and S&P completely bullish Wednesday, little fall from open and both finished very near day's highs. FTSE, however, looked tentative and failed to match Tuesday's high, so significantly lagging US indices. So, expecting FTSE to gap higher in the morning I am long intra-day. Course, it may then have a regular attack of timidity and fall back, but must surely push higher as US open approaches. Should be third up day in swing upleg, several indices approaching 50EMA, S&P skirmishing with 2007 lows, and we should see FTSE re-attempt 6000. Could be quite bullish if we establish bridgeheads above these various obstacles. Remain long from swing trade 12/02.

looks a good call tomorton,

confess to only shorts intraday from this am, gap was to tempting for me

Index found support pretty much to order


hours S imho
rising trend line 10 mins and R becomes S in that tf to

if they can hold here and jobs are not bad :?: then I think you long swingers are in play :clap:

I have support the hours at 5875 fut and target next stop magic 6000 mar fut so cash about 20 more

I would not want to see the hour range go again, if it does the 10 min rising trend line and hr support must hold Imho =

The Alamo

down target hrs would be, well I have 5760-80 ish mar fut

any way good luck Longs,:clover: me I am a watcher = work done for the day

more detail = day support potencial off Aug low ?

 

[black bear]

10 min pinbar (bull) triggered off the trendline in last post 11:30 bar

just under oh range

 

[tomorton]

Cheers Andy - Upwards gap at open was pleasing to see and profitable, but I had to exit early as we fell back into the gap. Think I'm beginning to see a pattern here: trade with the FTSE gap into the open, then trade into the gap for a further hour or two. Must do a bit more observation.

The Americans are reported as very excited at the possibility they have hit a double bottom (it was apparent on the S&P Minis I think). Even if they are wrong, I am sure they will drag us all north this afternoon so my March FTSE long says open.

 

[Splitlink]

Cheers Andy - Upwards gap at open was pleasing to see and profitable, but I had to exit early as we fell back into the gap. Think I'm beginning to see a pattern here: trade with the FTSE gap into the open, then trade into the gap for a further hour or two. Must do a bit more observation.

The Americans are reported as very excited at the possibility they have hit a double bottom (it was apparent on the S&P Minis I think). Even if they are wrong, I am sure they will drag us all north this afternoon so my March FTSE long says open.

My view on the SP is that, whether it goes up this afternoon, or not, it will have to do something over 30 points to confirm the db that i'm looking at. For the SP, that is quite a move, but it could do it.

Split

 

[black bear]

lol

well, not over yet but looks classic Zig Zag day, got in just to see it blow out the bottom into the close, to early to say what to make of it, Dow could easy give us a gap open up tomorrow and we could hold it.


Dow the key this evening imho

Ftse have a nr7 day on lower fut vol(not checked other/the win lose split is not that bad 40/40 and 20 no change) and support under or is it over now = I dont no yet, make my mind up when I see what Mr Jones gets up to later

Tomorton, gaps do not always get filled, I now you probably no that but I was trading with other things in mind to and scalping at that, so not proper trading Do not want to mislead anyone with earlier post.

 

[tomorton]

A very mixed day. Made good on the gap at the open but failed to short as the gap filled from the top, then my March long was stopped out. A good lesson from Oscar Carboni - Always dismiss the action the week before a three-day holiday weekend. Will stop back later with thoughts for tomorrow.

 

[black bear]

Dow closed on its lows and on the hours support imo

ftse @ S1 with sb"s and under pdl
Dow @ mid point S1-Pivot

might be a suprise bull day into the weekend

 

[tomorton]

Andy I agree tomorrow could be bull day though I don't print support and pivot levels you refer to. My guide is S&P, leading in symmetrical triangle from 26/12/07 and we closed tonight at exact centre line, FTSE and Dow showing minor variations on same pattern. This would typically eject downwards but triangles can be false friends and reverse out of the primary trend. Worrying that the triangle has run 34 days out of projected 39, so atypically well beyond 2/3 break-out point. Even confining start date to 23/01 fails to show typical triangle behaviour. On the other hand, volumes have been declining towards apex.

I expect slight early fall in FTSE to equalise its relative position with the Dow. After that, we could see violent ejection either way. The Monday holiday in US does not help my view of TA here as many US players will sit out tomorrow: that could either increase volatility tomorrow or count the day as a pause until re-assessed strategies can kick in after the weekend. Either way there is much scope for getting hurt. I will run a FTSE short overnight and look to be flat soon after breakfast. I will not carry any trades into the weekend no matter what the indices do tomorrow.

 

[black bear]

Andy I agree tomorrow could be bull day though I don't print support and pivot levels you refer to. My guide is S&P, leading in symmetrical triangle from 26/12/07 and we closed tonight at exact centre line, FTSE and Dow showing minor variations on same pattern. This would typically eject downwards but triangles can be false friends and reverse out of the primary trend. Worrying that the triangle has run 34 days out of projected 39, so atypically well beyond 2/3 break-out point. Even confining start date to 23/01 fails to show typical triangle behaviour. On the other hand, volumes have been declining towards apex.

I expect slight early fall in FTSE to equalise its relative position with the Dow. After that, we could see violent ejection either way. The Monday holiday in US does not help my view of TA here as many US players will sit out tomorrow: that could either increase volatility tomorrow or count the day as a pause until re-assessed strategies can kick in after the weekend. Either way there is much scope for getting hurt. I will run a FTSE short overnight and look to be flat soon after breakfast. I will not carry any trades into the weekend no matter what the indices do tomorrow.

Hi tomorton

most I use is one of splits trendlines and use them as per instructions they came with

Trend lines, to me, are drawn arbitrarily. I just use them as a sort of "comfort line". If I am on the right side of it I feel fine and have no worries. The rule that they must be drawn across the tops or bottom is, more or less, telling the market what to do. How can you expect that of a price? When the price cuts the trend I look to see if a pattern is forming. If the pattern is continuous, I revert to a trend line, again, almost certainly, the momentum will have changed but if I keep to the right of it in a bear and to the left of it in a bull then I am OK- Whenever it crosses, it is a warning to pay attention to the trade, nothing more.

There is nothing to be learned from trend lines, IMO anyway, except to help keep the ship on course. Go inside it and you are entering into shallow water.

I back that up in the hrs and mark standard S&R points and see how it plays out at those locations

mark days open hour range and note the pivot points off the cash index Dow/Ftse just to note any discrepancies between the 2

Not a swing trader really (low stakes) not a proper trader at all (scalper) just always done better intra day by taking in whats going on in the higher timeframes

anyway looks like game over for the nervous longs or its a big shakeout:?:

just gone out the bottom of open hours range after 2 poor attempts to get out of the top end = pretty volatile stuff as you said it could be tomorton.

Glad I am a scalper, would be sea sick if I was in on the longer tf, require a good 100 pt stop in these seas

good trading all :clover:

 

[tomorton]

Cheers Andy: as I have said before I must be more observant for pivot points. It never hurts to have a clearer picture (but try saying that to jackson pollack).

Its amazing how scalpers fear the risk in trading overnight and swing traders fear the risk in daytrading. Its more professional to acknowledge risk in preference to assuming profit but if we're both right, nobody should be trading at all.