hi sul2soul -
I posted this at 11:05pm Thursday here
http://www.trade2win.com/boards/fixed-odds-binary-betting/29385-binary-up-down.html
but forgot to copy it over here to this thread too. I only try to predict the FTSE early trading - predictions of FTSE daily action for later than 11am are really predictions of the Dow daily action. The opening range is enough for me to get a profit and get out and that means I shan't be tempted to daytrade, at which I stink.
black bear
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black bear
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MEN IN BLACK Spotted
Hi catracho
MEN IN BLACK Spotted up to no good on the Dow tonight, call Hookshot he likes to keep up with their movements and activities
lol last hr rally on the dow, what a shock result NOT !:lol:
good post catracho, its going to be a good show when it goes,
no charts this week catracho"s is the only one that matters
Hi catracho
MEN IN BLACK Spotted up to no good on the Dow tonight, call Hookshot he likes to keep up with their movements and activities
lol last hr rally on the dow, what a shock result NOT !:lol:
good post catracho, its going to be a good show when it goes,
no charts this week catracho"s is the only one that matters
Its as if it just doesn't want to break out.
Yesterday's late US action screamed 'bear squeeze', it certainly caught this bear unawares and stopped me out of the S&P short, though I had pulled in my stop, so it didn't hurt too much. They do say bear markets are more volatile so use wider stops, which is fine until the bear becomes a bull.
US rally left the FTSE low in comparison so I see a moderate rise at the open or in early trade on the FTSE on Monday. May be nothing spectacular, 30-50, as over the last week the FTSE did better in % terms than the Dow anyway.
The swing bars give me no immediate clues so I continue to wait for breach of 5681 to short, but slightly lower long trigger at 6344 now: Marc Rivalland's long trigger remains at 6072 but I think he will drop this when he reviews his signals.
Yesterday's late US action screamed 'bear squeeze', it certainly caught this bear unawares and stopped me out of the S&P short, though I had pulled in my stop, so it didn't hurt too much. They do say bear markets are more volatile so use wider stops, which is fine until the bear becomes a bull.
US rally left the FTSE low in comparison so I see a moderate rise at the open or in early trade on the FTSE on Monday. May be nothing spectacular, 30-50, as over the last week the FTSE did better in % terms than the Dow anyway.
The swing bars give me no immediate clues so I continue to wait for breach of 5681 to short, but slightly lower long trigger at 6344 now: Marc Rivalland's long trigger remains at 6072 but I think he will drop this when he reviews his signals.
barjon
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mmm, the 6000 area proved a difficult nut to crack on the way down and is proving equally difficult on the way up - nice example of support becomes resistance thus far. The patient swingers still in the long trade from 12 February will mostly, I guess, at least have lightened up around this level and looking to move their stop up there on any residual position if there's an explosive push through.
I'm not sure about a bear squeeze, tomo. Late-day price surges and stronger than average strength on a Friday are considered by Gary Smith (see ** below) to be one of the more reliable momentum patterns for follow through on Monday.
** How I Trade For a Living - Gary Smith. An enjoyable read.
All things being equal I suppose ftse should open about 70 up on Monday and it'll be interesting to see how the day develops.
good trading
jon
I'm not sure about a bear squeeze, tomo. Late-day price surges and stronger than average strength on a Friday are considered by Gary Smith (see ** below) to be one of the more reliable momentum patterns for follow through on Monday.
** How I Trade For a Living - Gary Smith. An enjoyable read.
All things being equal I suppose ftse should open about 70 up on Monday and it'll be interesting to see how the day develops.
good trading
jon
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Hi Jon -
Thanks for the reference to Gary Smith, I see what you refer to. I have mulled over day-of-the-week significance before but at last someone has pointed me towards some proper research.
On any day, late strength usually follows through and, yes, we might see the FTSE anticipate this on Monday before NY opens. On the other hand, I suspect Friday's rally will be classed as market manipulation rather than real bullishness, we are already outrunning the Dow short-term and the millennium number is a real barrier. We keep making bearish candlesticks.
I 'd be surprised to see the FTSE make a strong run on its own through Monday morning........................................................................BUT................................................ I have put in a tiny buy order........... I would love to profit from being wrong. ;-)
Thanks for the reference to Gary Smith, I see what you refer to. I have mulled over day-of-the-week significance before but at last someone has pointed me towards some proper research.
On any day, late strength usually follows through and, yes, we might see the FTSE anticipate this on Monday before NY opens. On the other hand, I suspect Friday's rally will be classed as market manipulation rather than real bullishness, we are already outrunning the Dow short-term and the millennium number is a real barrier. We keep making bearish candlesticks.
I 'd be surprised to see the FTSE make a strong run on its own through Monday morning........................................................................BUT................................................ I have put in a tiny buy order........... I would love to profit from being wrong. ;-)
black bear
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timsk
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FTSE Week 8
Resistance: 6050
Support: 5700
Agreed Jon.
P&F chart attached is late as I was away this W/E. Although there are numerous other areas of S&R between the red and bloo lines on the chart, I think the ones I've drawn are the key ones to watch. As can be seen, price is heading straight into the apex of the bullish support and bearish resistance lines. This, combined with the constant switching in temporary dominance between the bulls and bears, makes for interesting times. The bar chart shows a gradual decline in volume which would favour the bears. Also, Tuesday 19th's rally failed to test the earlier high achieved on Monday 4th Feb. Given that it takes more effort to push price up than it does for it to fall, I remain in the bearish camp. A breach of last week's low at 5840 could see a decisive move down and a renewed test of support at 5700.
Tim.
Status: BULLISH
Resistance: 6050
Support: 5700
Agreed Jon.
P&F chart attached is late as I was away this W/E. Although there are numerous other areas of S&R between the red and bloo lines on the chart, I think the ones I've drawn are the key ones to watch. As can be seen, price is heading straight into the apex of the bullish support and bearish resistance lines. This, combined with the constant switching in temporary dominance between the bulls and bears, makes for interesting times. The bar chart shows a gradual decline in volume which would favour the bears. Also, Tuesday 19th's rally failed to test the earlier high achieved on Monday 4th Feb. Given that it takes more effort to push price up than it does for it to fall, I remain in the bearish camp. A breach of last week's low at 5840 could see a decisive move down and a renewed test of support at 5700.
Tim.
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Hoggums
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Agreed - resistance at 6090-ish is being tested on the futures now but I can see the index charging up to 6350
There you are, mate! I always said that the problem with "Swing" are the stop levels.
I'm out of my trades every day.
Split
Split -
Agreed: they were what caused me to drop swing trading the FTSE last year, the win:loss ratio was pretty good but the stops intimidating, especially when the swing day is an outside range day of 130 points or something stupid.
So, do you close your short in a downtrend each night and re-open it the next morning, and so on down the leg? The classic strategy is to open on down day 1 and hold as far as possible.
Agreed: they were what caused me to drop swing trading the FTSE last year, the win:loss ratio was pretty good but the stops intimidating, especially when the swing day is an outside range day of 130 points or something stupid.
So, do you close your short in a downtrend each night and re-open it the next morning, and so on down the leg? The classic strategy is to open on down day 1 and hold as far as possible.
Hi tomorton,
Yes, but normally at lunchtime. Its difficult to tell what is going to happen in the afternoon as I have a job to go to. I've tried taking half profits and putting the other half at breakeven stops, but my results on that score seem to be mediocre. I find it better to close the lot out if I am making a decent profit.
I see you on the SP thread, too. I find that I can get a good profit in the am, even though it is out of hours, sometimes as much as ten points. I use that, if I make it, as a profit buffer for when NY opens. Quite often I have been stopped out on that, too, but I have had pleasant surprises and get home half an hour before the close so that I can close out before getting rolled over.
Split
Thanks Split - you surprise me but I won't say closing a FTSE swing trade within each day is a bad thing. It does cut profits from the Rivalland method but it also reduces risk. Plus, it uses the UK's advantage of the FTSE laggng the Dow: in effect we get the London am action telegraphed to us from New York every night, so why not use it to our advantage? I suspect a bet on the FTSE's pm action is generally a bet on the Dow, in which case, the advantage is neutralised. Hmmmmm..... I may like to try this.
