swingin' the ftse: 2008

[black bear]

correction

Dow closed on its lows and on the hours support imo

ftse @ S1 with sb"s and under pdl
Dow @ mid point S1-Pivot

might be a suprise bull day into the weekend

"might be a suprise bull day into the weekend"

errrrrrrrrrrr think I got that one wrong might not

errrr could be later perhaps:whistling


Have a good weekend all

 

[Splitlink]

"might be a suprise bull day into the weekend"

errrrrrrrrrrr think I got that one wrong might not

errrr could be later perhaps:whistling


Have a good weekend all

You've put the mockers on my short.

I'm closing.

Nice weekend, everyone.

Split

 

[timsk]

FTSE Week 7

So long as the index does not fall to 5800 or below and manages to rise to 5925, a new double top buy signal will print. This, added to the failure of the bears to breach support at 5700 (horizontal red line on chart) makes for a much more bullish outlook and bring cheer to the bulls - at least in the short term.
Tim.

Status: BEARISH
Resistance: 5925
Support: 5700

The bullish cheer was short lived. The double top buy signal as quoted above did indeed print but, unfortunately, the bulls failed to capitalize on their efforts. The response by the bears was more emphatic: just as the minimum 3 box reversal shows weakness (in either direction), a buy signal comprising just one box before reversing is a failed signal and, ipso facto, becomes a bearish signal. So, the bears have the upper hand again, but their resolve will be tested at support. As Andy suggested earlier in the week, a trading range has formed within whose boundaries there is broad equilibrium between buyers and sellers. Until the tug-o'-war is resolved, this market is suited more to day traders than it is to swing traders. As to which way it will go, the attached weekly bar chart may offer some clues. The huge bar on equally impressive volume from 3 weeks ago looked as if it may be a volume 'blow off' bar, with buyers soaking up all the supply. The week that followed (2 weeks ago) appeared to confirm this view with a strong rise. However, the penultimate bar from one week ago is very bearish - in spite of being bloo (higher high and higher low). As for last week's bar - it has a lower high, the close is well beneath the half way mark and the pressure on support at 5700 is all too clear. Going back to the P&F chart, the bulls have failed to make any significant progress in their last three attempts. If they can't push the index higher, as appears to be the case, then the line of least resistance clearly points one way: south.
Tim.

 

[sul2soul]

Ok then guys where do you see the ftse going on monday and tuesday ?

I am thinking of getting in on some listed cfd action monday morning. I made apretty penny on friday having got put cfd' against the ftse. Then managed to sell them shortly before close.

I have a feeling the market will fall more with so many banks reporting figures ?

Any help...


S

 

[tomorton]

Tim's P&F work strikes a nice balance and suggests a fall sooner rather than later.

My initial thoughts are bearish Monday, ultra-bearish Tuesday when US re-opens and plummets. But US holiday Monday could mean we just go sideways Monday and Tuesday am waiting for them to haul back into the office.

I haven't done any real TA for the week ahead yet but will be back with detail in next 24hrs. I know you all just can't wait......

 

[timsk]

Ok then guys where do you see the ftse going on monday and tuesday ?

The very last word of my previous post (i.e. the one above yours) sums up my view fairly concisely. If you're interested to know why I think this way, then you'll have to read the whole post and look at the charts.
Welcome to T2W, btw
Tim.

 

[timsk]

I haven't done any real TA for the week ahead yet but will be back with detail in next 24hrs. I know you all just can't wait......

I'm on the edge of my seat Tom, sweat cascades down my temples with excitement and I'm quivering with anticipation. Don't keep me waiting long - please, the tension is unbearable.
:cheesy::cheesy::cheesy:
Tim.
(Sorry Tom, couldn't resist - feeling mischievous!)

 

[black bear]

you pays your money you takes your chance

Tim's P&F work strikes a nice balance and suggests a fall sooner rather than later.

My initial thoughts are bearish Monday, ultra-bearish Tuesday when US re-opens and plummets. But US holiday Monday could mean we just go sideways Monday and Tuesday am waiting for them to haul back into the office.

I haven't done any real TA for the week ahead yet but will be back with detail in next 24hrs. I know you all just can't wait......

Hi Tom

Good call on volatility by the way, had to take travel pills by noon

US plummets ?

Dow held pretty well friday, not sure how heavy it was traded before the weekend but it managed to hold its open hour range very easy imho, the range was wide in pts but the range is the range = looked pretty normal price action to me considering the flap on the ftse Friday who"s range and pdl was bust wide open.

Hi tim

good spot on the weak week bar = looks dangerous to me to = Split get ready more of the same perhaps

good luck all whatever your choice:clover:

away for next couple of weeks, so catch you later

 

[sul2soul]

Thnx for tim, tom

I thought the ftse was going to dip even more at the close on friday.
Was expecting alot of panick selling. Specially with no us to guide us on monday.
Rem the last bank holiday there!!

Anyway will get on getting my self about 2k listed cfd's for monday and see what happens by tuesday afternoon.

Cant wait till monday now...


S

 

[tomorton]

This is a real dilemma. Damn US holidays!

FTSE action Friday not a great help for next week - very negative from early morning and a wide range (2.6%). Anyone placing buys and sells above and below Thursday would have seen both entry points hit in one day as it breached both triangle trendlines - thanks for your help London. This was a swing down day so technically I should have shorted Friday from 5859 as we breached Thursday's low and would have if not for the US holiday.

The S&P is my usual guide for the week ahead, and as well as being more influential also shows more visible TA. Very narrow range, easily an NR7: actually its an NR36, narrowest range since 26/12 (coincidentally? the base day for the current symmetrical triangle). Dow also easy NR7 for Friday, both ranges less than 1%. Did not breach triangle trendlines. Each formed a hammer, often bullish after a downtrend: but we weren't in a downtrend, so I suspect we can put a discount on the significance of the S&P and Dow hammers (one is yin and one yang anyway).

NR7s suggest imminent increase in price volatility and breakout through the triangle. Better late than never but which direction? The London suits covered both options by trading up, then way down, but they were only trying to re-balance with the Dow as suggested and I don't see the range as significant re future price action. This range, 2.7%, is too extended for me to derive a stop-loss. In any case, opening a position over the weekend or on Monday could be a blind gamble in the absence of US direction.

Anyway, I won't be opening any FTSE positions over the weekend or on Monday and will only do so Tuesday pm if we have cleared 5939 as bullish continuation or 5681 as bearish continuation. However, I feel a better option would be to place a buy order above and sell order below either S&P or Dow Friday ranges and await developments. The range is narrow so the opposite extreme would be a viable stop (though at under 1% these ranges make it more possible that whipsaw would hit both entry points in one day). Of course, I don't really expect the markets to break out of the triangle northwards any more than Tim does. Should be another interesting week.

 

[barjon]

Hey, Ho - looks like the jury's still out on the potential swing change, but we'll have to trust it 'til 5681 goes on the downside.

I guess most will be out of the long trade by now (my second half went at b/e on Friday) and most should have made a bit. A few will still be bold enough to hang in until that 5681 goes and may, or may not, find themselves in a losing trade overall depending on their tactics.

There's precious little room for another two down bars but you never know.

good trading

jon

 

[sul2soul]

Having a bad day today...
Went in with a listed put cfd against the ftse (2k of them)
With the ftse 108 points up I am 71p per share down.

Is it worth selling now, or does any one think tomorrow and wed the ftse will shed 70 plus points ?
Or even worse for me will it go higher!!!

Any advice for panicky investor appreciated!

S

 

[timsk]

worth selling now, or does any one think tomorrow and wed the ftse will shed 70 plus points ?
Any advice for panicky investor appreciated!

Hi sul2soul,
I doubt anyone here will tell you what you should do and, if they did, my advice would be to think extremely carefully before acting on any advice given. You need to arrive at your own decisions as to when and where to enter and exit the market. The posts by Jon, Tom, Andy myself and others on this thread are NOT recommendations to trade the market either long or short. They are personal observations and opinions: sometimes we are unison and sometimes not. Even if we all said that we think the market will rise tomorrow, that should have no bearing whatsoever on the way you trade. On a general note, I'm confident that everyone here will back me up when I say that you should never ever enter any trade without knowing the point at which you'll exit if it goes against you. Given my opening comment I won't, therefore, advise you as to whether or not to hold on to your position or to close it. However, if I were in your shoes, I would ask myself this question: 'if I wasn't already in this trade, would I want to be in it now?' If the answer is 'no', I'd close it without hesitation, take the loss, learn from it - hopefully - and move on.
Tim.

 

[sul2soul]

Hey Tim,

But ofcourse you are right )
I always get stressed even if the market moves a single point against me let alone 70 odd !
I guess you may say this buisness isnt for the faint hearted..... But I like the worrying part, as when things go my way I get that much more pleasure.

I guess I wasnt expecting such a hike in the ftse today. I had put a deal at best order last night, when I woke up at 10 the ftse was already sky high.

I think it may be worth just waiting till atleast tuesday pm when us re-opens. I cant see the ftse rising a whole lot more. I think the confidence in banks today is overdone and might go by the time barclays, alliance and liescter report figures.

I just like getting the reassurance of other astute traders (like your self Tim)

Ok then so you wont advise me of teh trade. But where do you see th ftse going tuesday then )

I will get you to answer by proxy!

S
x
.

 

[barjon]

sul2soul

have you got any sort of trading plan or are you just playing hunches?

the only answer about tuesday that you'll get is that it will go up or go down or go sideways - not much help i'm afraid !!

it sounds as though you're now living in hope that it'll come back, but that's an extremely dangerous game.

as i post it looks as though it might have broken down from the last hour's range so you may get the opportunity to limit the damage if you're so inclined.

cheers

jon

 

[tomorton]

As the man said (JP Morgan I think) when asked what the market would do the next day - 'Fluctuate'.

Its never nice to be carrying a big loss but it is a positive thing to acknowledge it and learn from the expereince. Being wrong is OK, as long as you don't stay wrong.

I had no real clue what the FTSE would do today, especially as the US is closed, hence I am still flat since Thursday / Friday. I don't think the FTSE will be very strong tomorrow but my strategy is trend-following, not trend-anticipating, and for me a good motto would be trade what you see, not what you think. And I wish I could stick to that.

So, for tomorrow, I would be less surprised to see us go down than up, but I expect to place both and buy and sell order tonight, anticipating I might be wrong. Unusually this will probably be on the S&P as a proxy for the FTSE, as I think the obvious levels for stop-losses using the FTSE would be too far apart for my risk tolerance, while the S&P had a very narrow range day Friday which suits the purpose quite well. I won't be going long on the FTSE until it breaches 6071: even then, the decision will be driven by what the S&P trade does before then.

Best wishes

 

[Hoggums]

Hey Tim,

But ofcourse you are right )
I always get stressed even if the market moves a single point against me let alone 70 odd !
I guess you may say this buisness isnt for the faint hearted..... But I like the worrying part, as when things go my way I get that much more pleasure.

I guess I wasnt expecting such a hike in the ftse today. I had put a deal at best order last night, when I woke up at 10 the ftse was already sky high.

I think it may be worth just waiting till atleast tuesday pm when us re-opens. I cant see the ftse rising a whole lot more. I think the confidence in banks today is overdone and might go by the time barclays, alliance and liescter report figures.

I just like getting the reassurance of other astute traders (like your self Tim)

Ok then so you wont advise me of teh trade. But where do you see th ftse going tuesday then )

I will get you to answer by proxy!

S
x
.

Personally I favour more rises in the market at present. I think if we need to build a base to form a new uptrend - we need higher levels than at present to attract the bears in - who can then drive the price down to the 5500 region again.

 

[black bear]

Holiday post card

Personally I favour more rises in the market at present. I think if we need to build a base to form a new uptrend - we need higher levels than at present to attract the bears in - who can then drive the price down to the 5500 region again.

Hi Hoggums

I agree, I favour long for a short time :whistling

future un-known and not trade advice just some post cards

imho it could go up or down or up and down and sideways at the same time

catch you all in a week" ish

 

[tomorton]

Not the most helpful day in signposting future price action. Is there such a thing anyway?

FTSE resembles a doji / spinning top, suggesting bullishness, and closed above the upper symmetrical triangle boundary. But it was weak, extending beow 19/02 and never making much headway into Tuesday's range.

Dow and S&P were red days but look more like hammers, again suggesting bullishness and inching north of the triangles.

I had expected a more dramatic ejection and this isn't it. Nevertheless, we might see a rise in early FTSE trade of 60-80pts above Wednesday's close. After that I'd be guessing. My S&P sell order was filled early pm and now shows an uncomfortable deficit due to the later rally. Much higher and I will reverse.

 

[sul2soul]

Wow looks like the Dow just keeps heading down....

How do we see the ftse for friday ?
Lloyds should return good results so maybe we can have a bullish day for the ftse ?

Although with the dj tumbling today the ftse always seems to fall in sympathy.
I am hoping for a rise of the ftse to move to 6010 or highere in the near future. (I have call position till april)

Any thoughts of trends ?

Having a quick peak at the market diary for next week, I do suspect a dodgy week for DJ and FTSE.

S