My Journal - Pathways to Improvement

[Forexmospherian]

EU - Afternoon US session for keen

Hi keen

A couple of trades on EU and GJ

Both at key times in time windows

Both with tight stops - ie EU easy 3-5 pips - GJ - the beast allow 7 pips

Both under 30 mins

Key is not just 2 Lrs - but main 4 to 6.

EU makes 13 pips as a move - easy 11.5 pips net on most platforms - or 9-10 pips on platforms with 3 pip spreads

GJ - my spread atm 2 pips but lets say 3-4 pips - that makes 21 pips so what 4 -16 pip net after all costs

I don't trade this time normally - finish normally by London Close - but tonight waiting to watch a film at 9 pm - so had time to check out at KT's

When I enter do I know I will get over 5 or 10 pips ? answer No

But PA and LR;s and other clues like time - TL's etc all help and so i end up with trades that you feel all the members who follow are hindsight trading ??

2 trades 2 wins - but today i have had losses as well - but that's par for course.

If I had say 3 losses - by 8 -10 trades easy into profit

If I had 5 losses might need 15 + trades to bring around to daily target

If i have like you today 8 losses - then I guess i would need over 20 trades to get up into profit . I could take easily 30 to 50 trades a day - but that's very tiring - normally 10 -20 trades per day is in the range i like

Charts of EU and GJ at KT's and scalps

 

[Forexmospherian]

What is written on that thread is sometimes incredible

Hi F,
Sorry to be a bit absent lately, I had to code and do my job (must earn some money sometimes).
I will be back normally next week and will seriously try to apply (100%) your method.
LRs are really interesting indicators, reacting fast with quite few lagging.
They are very good to be coded into robots and are giving nice results.

Could be interesting in some weeks/months to make a competition in between a LR robot and SSS manual method
What do you think about it ?

Have a nice evening everyone (you too NickBk )

Hi R

I think for retail FX traders - semi automated systems can help - but you need to be able to have a discretionary mode - simply because there are so many factors and variables to bring into the equation. If you are a Hedge Fund or Bank with millions to invest with supercomputer technology - then I am sure they can come up with a super robot with all the bells and whistles etcetc. But normal robots - ie retail ones - what 50 /50 - but what would expect for say $99 or $199 compared to one that cost hundreds of thousands ( or millions )

LR's are far superior to MA's - but they are just part of the equation - along with at least 4 other so called other "leading indicators " or clues as I call them - and of course one of them being the FX experience of the trader etc

Please keep my updated though with any of your developments and GL

Have a good November

Regards

F

 

[keen246]

Hi K

Thanks again for sharing you results like Sun / Remulix / Dave and Shacau and MM who do on my journal thread.

Also noticed the other point you mentioned to Sun - so appreciate I need to try harder and help you more - although it might not be this week

You win ratios atm range from 25 / 30% to say 50%. We need 65% + to carry on

Now I average on batches of 100 trades between a poor 61 % low and high 87% high - so as a mean average 70 -75% is certainly possible in REAL TIME - as trading on a Live account as to be in REAL TIME - it cannot be hindsight

So that means at an average 72% say - Major M as managed to achieve a lot higher - but forget that on 100 trades I will get say 28 losses on that win ratio

I might get a few 3 or 4 consecutive losses - and similar I get sometimes 15 to 25 winners in a row - but the main point is I have losses and try and keep them under 3 -5 pips if i can.

But this the important part

Some of my 72 winners - will only be for 3 to 7 pips - - majority ie over 50% will be over 7 pips and then at least 10 + will make 25 pips +

The 10 + that make over 25 + pips out of 100 trades will be the ones you imagine after be hindsight - but they are not - Sun /MM / NVP / Remulix and Shacau and even Dave will all tell you - yes I have caught a 25+ pipper off just 5 pip stop

I think you think its impossible - and therefore its a negative and not helping your progression

With out getting over 60% win ratios on tight stops - then ongoing my method might only be break even or even a loss method - get 65 -70% + and 10% of your trades making good pips - total different ball game - then your results are incredible.

Please let me know what you think you are doing wrong ?

Regards

F

Hi F,

I’m glad you’re not offended by my poor results. Sorry if some people find them disturbing, but I don’t see any point claiming to be doing great when actually I’m not. If I were claiming hundreds of positive pips, some other people would be saying it’s BS –which in fact would be. It’s hard to keep everybody happy.

I know it’s a rarity on these forums to see someone being upfront about losing trades. Most seem to be young/rich/successful/profitable traders. So, where is the 95% losers the statistics mention…I just don’t understand.

I think it can be helpful for future aspiring traders to see my struggle and hopefully my improvement over time. The reality is that everything takes a certain learning curve for most people, and only a very few gifted ones pick up and become experts overnight.
I appreciate your willingness to help. I’m aware that not being this craft a pure science or an art, it can be difficult to explain the many gray areas of the subject matter.

I totally believe your statement that one can get 60-70% accuracy because that’s what I was getting when I started your method. But being a pragmatic person, I don’t think it’s possible to enter without any DD when the market is volatile. I’ve done that a few times in fact, but that belongs more to sheer chance than a consistent repeatable skill.

What do I think I’m doing wrong? Jeee…I wish I knew. I’ve followed the rules of the method (in fact I think I’m the only one who bothered to compile -and study! - in a document many of your post on the other threads where you mention something useful for learning the method). Next January it’s already 3 years since I embarked on this business and since the beginning I’ve been concentrated on PA and didn’t waste much time with indicators. I don’t think I’m stupid but certainly not as brilliant as NickB, so I really don’t know yet what could be wrong. It’s weird that every day I seem to perform worse. I really hope things turn around soon.

Cheers,
K

 

[keen246]

Ive had that a few times on a real account.3 times from memory-800 quid loss x 3 on a 20k account.i took the losses immediately and just cut the position.Its a hard knock but you can bounce back.you just learn from each heavy loss-best to do it on a demo first.how long have you been trading.

I can only imagine how that might feel like. Next January it's gonna be 3 years trading.
Cheers,
K

 

[Fugazsy]

Hi F,

I’m glad you’re not offended by my poor results. Sorry if some people find them disturbing, but I don’t see any point claiming to be doing great when actually I’m not. If I were claiming hundreds of positive pips, some other people would be saying it’s BS –which in fact would be. It’s hard to keep everybody happy.

I know it’s a rarity on these forums to see someone being upfront about losing trades. Most seem to be young/rich/successful/profitable traders. So, where is the 95% losers the statistics mention…I just don’t understand.

I think it can be helpful for future aspiring traders to see my struggle and hopefully my improvement over time. The reality is that everything takes a certain learning curve for most people, and only a very few gifted ones pick up and become experts overnight.
I appreciate your willingness to help. I’m aware that not being this craft a pure science or an art, it can be difficult to explain the many gray areas of the subject matter.

I totally believe your statement that one can get 60-70% accuracy because that’s what I was getting when I started your method. But being a pragmatic person, I don’t think it’s possible to enter without any DD when the market is volatile. I’ve done that a few times in fact, but that belongs more to sheer chance than a consistent repeatable skill.

What do I think I’m doing wrong? Jeee…I wish I knew. I’ve followed the rules of the method (in fact I think I’m the only one who bothered to compile -and study! - in a document many of your post on the other threads where you mention something useful for learning the method). Next January it’s already 3 years since I embarked on this business and since the beginning I’ve been concentrated on PA and didn’t waste much time with indicators. I don’t think I’m stupid but certainly not as brilliant as NickB, so I really don’t know yet what could be wrong. It’s weird that every day I seem to perform worse. I really hope things turn around soon.

Cheers,
K

K

Thank you for your posts, I admire and respect you for your honesty and courage in showing your pain.

Honesty in my humble view is a great prerogative as a trader but also as a person.

Keep in mind that retail trading is one of the hardest path anyone can undertake if you want to make a living out of it.

You should not despair, you might need to find the strength in taking breaks (addictive business this is) in betweens, a clear mind (or not mind at all) is a must.

Fugs

 

[sun11]

Regarding EA

Hi Remulix...

Actually during these days I was also coding an EA with LR methods. As we both are coders. So obviously that would come in our mind..:cheesy:

I haven't completed the full coding, i just started. But then stopped because, i thought, as F mentioned its a discretionary method. Its really hard to implement in a robot. Cause robot are pre coded. But our mind is not. When we trade we don't always follow rule...sometimes we follow our guts. That's why i stopped coding it.

Plus this LR method is not just LR methods, it involves wave patterns, price actions, time rules, avoid news times etc. So many things. Good luck if you do so... It will be a real hard work..

All the best..
Regards
Sun

 

[sun11]

Day 63

Sorry couldn't posted last day results. As it was a holiday in here.

Last day taken 28 trades.
Win rate was very low, 39%.
Largest loss: 8.9 (sorry about it. it was really a high movement)
Largest win: 6
But pl is in profit.

But actually its not my full results. I have 3 trades still on-line from last day..all are trailed in profits. Currently its 44+ pips in profit. I'm targeting bit higher..but if it broke a certain level during London session. I will close it. Actually last day it was around 100+ pips profit. But as was not there. So couldn't close it.




These are not hindsight trading...

Early good morning to all.
Happy trading.

 

[sun11]

All right, I closed my trade at 55+ pips profit.
But i still think my long term target was nice. 187.20
If i trade 0.10 lot then i could have peeled & keep the rest upto that. But unfortunately I opened trade on 0.01 lot & I build a pyramid.
Anyway we are scalper...Today I may not be around London opening. I have an invitation. I will still try to managed.

Day started nicely.


Lastly, keen don't worry about negative results...post them freely here..no problem....I have those too. When i started i had -40 pips loss. I get big losses too. But i have managed badly..which I don't recommend anybody... Machine gun.

We are all in learning process. So don't loose hope.
Honestly when i will trade on real.. i don't know...I may ended up a looser. Who knows.:whistling...but even if i do that..I will still know..that I tried....

GL

 

[remulix]

Hi Remulix...

Actually during these days I was also coding an EA with LR methods. As we both are coders. So obviously that would come in our mind..:cheesy:

I haven't completed the full coding, i just started. But then stopped because, i thought, as F mentioned its a discretionary method. Its really hard to implement in a robot. Cause robot are pre coded. But our mind is not. When we trade we don't always follow rule...sometimes we follow our guts. That's why i stopped coding it.

Plus this LR method is not just LR methods, it involves wave patterns, price actions, time rules, avoid news times etc. So many things. Good luck if you do so... It will be a real hard work..

All the best..
Regards
Sun

Hi Sun,

100% agree with you.
BUT: I wrote that I'm coding a LR bot, not F's method, as it's, IMHO, impossible.
MQL4 is a very weak and slow language and only simple things can be coded efficiently. Never forget that MT4 or 5 are originally designed to make people lose; and it's working very well: 95% traders are losing

The goal is to replace quality by quantity.
Maybe the bot will need 500 trades a day to make 10 (net) pips; I don't mind and it will generate tons of rebates.
As I already told some posts ago, we are traders and are not working for pips but for money; moreover it you take tons of trades, your broker will be happy and will grant you better conditions.
What is important is to find a win/win solution.
There are many possibilities to make money in Forex.

Have a nice day.
R.

 

[keen246]

Hi Sun,

100% agree with you.
BUT: I wrote that I'm coding a LR bot, not F's method, as it's, IMHO, impossible.
MQL4 is a very weak and slow language and only simple things can be coded efficiently. Never forget that MT4 or 5 are originally designed to make people lose; and it's working very well: 95% traders are losing

The goal is to replace quality by quantity.
Maybe the bot will need 500 trades a day to make 10 (net) pips; I don't mind and it will generate tons of rebates.
As I already told some posts ago, we are traders and are not working for pips but for money; moreover it you take tons of trades, your broker will be happy and will grant you better conditions.
What is important is to find a win/win solution.
There are many possibilities to make money in Forex.

Have a nice day.
R.

Bonjour R,
The LRs coding was already tried by a programmer/coder on F's closed thread. I think his nick was TheRumpletOne or something like that. I read all his posts, but it seems like he finally gave up. Never saw a another post on the thread from him.
Cheers,
K

 

[sun11]

Hi Sun,

100% agree with you.
BUT: I wrote that I'm coding a LR bot, not F's method, as it's, IMHO, impossible.
MQL4 is a very weak and slow language and only simple things can be coded efficiently. Never forget that MT4 or 5 are originally designed to make people lose; and it's working very well: 95% traders are losing

The goal is to replace quality by quantity.
Maybe the bot will need 500 trades a day to make 10 (net) pips; I don't mind and it will generate tons of rebates.
As I already told some posts ago, we are traders and are not working for pips but for money; moreover it you take tons of trades, your broker will be happy and will grant you better conditions.
What is important is to find a win/win solution.
There are many possibilities to make money in Forex.

Have a nice day.
R.

I got you...specially the rebate part..
Once I heard about this & had a rebate account. But never thought more on this.
I think now you just inspired me.

Thank you
Have a nice day you too..
Regards

 

[keen246]

K

Thank you for your posts, I admire and respect you for your honesty and courage in showing your pain.

Honesty in my humble view is a great prerogative as a trader but also as a person.

Keep in mind that retail trading is one of the hardest path anyone can undertake if you want to make a living out of it.

You should not despair, you might need to find the strength in taking breaks (addictive business this is) in betweens, a clear mind (or not mind at all) is a must.

Fugs

Thanks Fugs for your comments. I appreciate your suggestion about taking breaks.. it's a wise advice.
I hope my journey can help other traders....while I help myself.
Cheers,
K

 

[remulix]

I got you...specially the rebate part..
Once I heard about this & had a rebate account. But never thought more on this.
I think now you just inspired me.

Thank you
Have a nice day you too..
Regards

Excellent !



R.

 

[remulix]

Bonjour R,
The LRs coding was already tried by a programmer/coder on F's closed thread. I think his nick was TheRumpletOne or something like that. I read all his posts, but it seems like he finally gave up. Never saw a another post on the thread from him.
Cheers,
K

Hi K,
Thanks for the advice.

On my side, it's almost done :cheesy:


I must finish the pips counter to get reliable stats and we will see.
R.

 

[keen246]

All right, I closed my trade at 55+ pips profit.
But i still think my long term target was nice. 187.20
If i trade 0.10 lot then i could have peeled & keep the rest upto that. But unfortunately I opened trade on 0.01 lot & I build a pyramid.
Anyway we are scalper...Today I may not be around London opening. I have an invitation. I will still try to managed.

Day started nicely.
View attachment 205450

Lastly, keen don't worry about negative results...post them freely here..no problem....I have those too. When i started i had -40 pips loss. I get big losses too. But i have managed badly..which I don't recommend anybody... Machine gun.

We are all in learning process. So don't loose hope.
Honestly when i will trade on real.. i don't know...I may ended up a looser. Who knows.:whistling...but even if i do that..I will still know..that I tried....

GL

Great inspiring results Sun....keep up the great results.
Thanks for letting me post my results in your thread. Not quite what we all would like to see, but that's the hard cold truth for me at the moment.
Hope I can catch up with your great results sometime in the future.
Cheers,
K

 

[keen246]

Hi K

Thanks again for sharing you results like Sun / Remulix / Dave and Shacau and MM who do on my journal thread.

Also noticed the other point you mentioned to Sun - so appreciate I need to try harder and help you more - although it might not be this week

You win ratios atm range from 25 / 30% to say 50%. We need 65% + to carry on

Now I average on batches of 100 trades between a poor 61 % low and high 87% high - so as a mean average 70 -75% is certainly possible in REAL TIME - as trading on a Live account as to be in REAL TIME - it cannot be hindsight

So that means at an average 72% say - Major M as managed to achieve a lot higher - but forget that on 100 trades I will get say 28 losses on that win ratio

I might get a few 3 or 4 consecutive losses - and similar I get sometimes 15 to 25 winners in a row - but the main point is I have losses and try and keep them under 3 -5 pips if i can.

But this the important part

Some of my 72 winners - will only be for 3 to 7 pips - - majority ie over 50% will be over 7 pips and then at least 10 + will make 25 pips +

The 10 + that make over 25 + pips out of 100 trades will be the ones you imagine after be hindsight - but they are not - Sun /MM / NVP / Remulix and Shacau and even Dave will all tell you - yes I have caught a 25+ pipper off just 5 pip stop

I think you think its impossible - and therefore its a negative and not helping your progression

With out getting over 60% win ratios on tight stops - then ongoing my method might only be break even or even a loss method - get 65 -70% + and 10% of your trades making good pips - total different ball game - then your results are incredible.

Please let me know what you think you are doing wrong ?

Regards

F

Hi F,
What could I be doing wrong....come to think about it, I think I can't handle to post and scalp at the same time. I don't know how you do it, but it seems I can't cope with both.
I don't think I'll post during my scalping time, so I'll manage to reply to comments, suggestions, insults or whatever in my afternoon.
Cheers,
K

 

[sun11]

Day 64

Current statement is after the morning session. I omitted those GJ trades as those were taken on last day.

No of trade: 17
Win % = 41%
Largest win: 21
largest loss: 6.7
PL: 22

Good night.

 

[Forexmospherian]

Hi F,
What could I be doing wrong....come to think about it, I think I can't handle to post and scalp at the same time. I don't know how you do it, but it seems I can't cope with both.
I don't think I'll post during my scalping time, so I'll manage to reply to comments, suggestions, insults or whatever in my afternoon.
Cheers,
K

Hi K

Next year will be my 14th year at FX trading

First 3 yrs - I was hardly consistent

After 6 yrs - I had my method and then started full time - as I was semi retired and thought I could crack it. No way during my first 5 yrs could I think of blogging and trading together - it would have been near impossible.

I had spent over 3 yrs learning to just scalp the EU and needed total focus.

As time went on and after i went full time I grew my account quickly - and thought I had the Holy Grail. One bad week when I was on 22 to 25 lots per pip with $200+ k capital account - I had my first 7 consecutive losses in a row - and all changed . It took me 6 months to get back trading and nowadays I trade on far lower stake size so that in a way its nearly like being on a demo full time - ie after 20k live scalps and way over 10k hrs spent on purely chart watching- I am bound to find it easier than I did in my first 5 yrs.

You cannot buy experience - you can short cut some of it - that's what I am trying to do helping others - but I am a trader who does not think FX trading is simple or easy - its bloomimg hard - frustrating - rewarding - draining etc etc.

You do need the right personality - ie to be able to switch off and not worry etc and have the ability to have loads of focus and concentration at certain times during your journey.

Its not for everyone - I dont think maybe 95% of all FX traders fail and give up - but certainly over 80+ % thats for sure. The 5 to 15% left - and that is still thousands and thousands of traders around the world - have had luck to survive and have worked hard to be successful and I am sure everyone of them has thought about it giving up trading and doing something else etc etc.

But if you have the determination and luck to get to consistency - whether it takes 3 yrs or 8 years - then the rewards can be great and then you will find blogging and trading together is fairly easy.

If life was easy - then we would all be multi millionaires - and also out of every 10 traders who stay 6 -8 months learning my method - i still think at least 50% will give up or never go full time

I wish you well K - you know that

All the best

F

 

[keen246]

Results Nov 11

My results for today: +7.2 Net Pips.:clap:
Today I needed badly a confidence booster, so I took only one trade. I didn't take many more available opportunities as I was waiting for a crystal clear entry that would guarantee at least a decent winner. Is that what I should do everyday?

Cheers,
K

 

[Forexmospherian]

My results for today: +7.2 Net Pips.:clap:
Today I needed badly a confidence booster, so I took only one trade. I didn't take many more available opportunities as I was waiting for a crystal clear entry that would guarantee at least a decent winner. Is that what I should do everyday?

Cheers,
K

WD

Personally - I have never found just 1 to 3 trades the answer - whatever method you use.

As an intraday trader - we take some days more trades than some traders take in a week or even a month. You should always judge you results over say 50 or 100 trades as they normally even themselves out. If you have a daily target - say 20 pips or 25 pips and you make it with say 2 or 3 winning trades - yes by all means stop - whether its after just one hr or 4 hrs.

But what happens on the days you have 2 or 3 losses ? - and of course you will have them - then all what happens with less trades is that it takes you longer to realise its just not working.

My answer and one I found out over 5 yrs ago - was to have a method that means when you do have a run of losers - ie 3 or more consecutive losses - then have enough capability to make it back in the day.

I am sure you know a real pure scalper - ie the type similar to how NVP was - he used to take up to 150 - 200 trades over a full day - just after 1 or 2 pips net profit after cost ( so depending on broker then 2 to 4 pips gross ) - exhausting and costly.

I personally know of a couple of scalpers taking 40 to 70 scalps a day - but for me its too tiring ongoing. I find I can take 25 to 40 trades over a 10 -12 hr session - Ok still having many breaks in between - and maybe really only 4 -5 hrs of pure trading - but again at my age - i prefer to stay under 20 trades a day - but I am the first to say if I am having a bad session with say 5 + losses - it means I might have to work an extra 1 or 2 hrs and take another 4 -6 trades to get me to my daily target - or at least a decent profit.

The ideal scenario might be just 5 -10 trades a day with having some where you get partial stakes with stops in profit and then forget . If just one or two make you 25 or 40+ pips over the course of 4 -6 hrs with no stress - then perfect - even though its on lower stake size. Also if you do have 3 bad trades - then you can still turn it around in the day.

Look what's just happened to Sun - she has a bad win ratio run yesterday - but catches a couple of nice trades that she leaves part stakes on and they do well.

Main thing - you focused well and concentrated and cherry picked the trade - and it worked - 100% win record today - far better than me




Regards

F