My Journal - Pathways to Improvement

[sun11]

These numbers do not account for pairs and comms. Many pairs with wider spreads will change these numbers a lot. A 6 pip s/l would be hard to manage effectively on GJ for example or GA. So starting with a -3 makes not taking it into account a waste.

Yes in this model which is keen requested, it doesn't included comms.

But in the model which I posted 1st it does includes all costs, it get calculated based on net pips on live market. That's why its most acute.

I know about your time stop rule. Good that did the sampling. But if market forms a range suddenly then you might get out early from the trade. Cause range has to break sometimes. Yes still time stop is better.

Thank you Nick for your input.
Regards

 

[keen246]

Hello Keen,

Good hear from you.

The model which I posted is about getting the required pip per winning trade to achieve the target under certain conditions. So it's a different model.

But the model which you are looking for I already posted about it in past many times in this thread. Your model required winning rate as input.

For 60% win rate with 12 TP & 6 SL under 20 trades. Expected pip profit is 96.
As its 1:2 RR so it will work positive upto 40%, expected pip profit is 24.

Hope it helps.
Regards
S.

Hi Sun,

Thanks for your reply.
Yes, those are the figures I got too. As NickBk mentioned, that wouldn't apply to high volatility pairs. I avoid them anyway.
Even if 96 pips don't look like too much, achieving 60% consistently is awfully difficult.

Cheers,
Keen246

 

[keen246]

Of course I get your point.

A number of variables there. What is your daily target, over how many hours will you trade, pairs etc. It is hard to define a target until you have more concrete answers to the above.

I always took issue with the fantasy 100+ pip moves that suffered 30+ pip pullbacks along the way. It is sure unacceptable to have 30+ pip pullbacks no matter if you are in profit if your average win in under 10 pips. There was no answer ever to this question.

For me the pullback should be an exit if the criteria is met for a sell, which usually is the case. My own trading I get a high proportion of winners but rarely get the 100+ pip moves. If I have been lucky I get a full position on and then get out partially along the move and can end up with a portion catching the bigger part of a move but capital protection is paramount.

I noted before you had a big portion of 1 or 2 pip winners, which with spreads and comms is not ideal, I am sure you know anyway. I had mentioned before I have a cut off that continues to be effective through checking now a big number of trades. If a trade has not hit its s/l and is not in profit either in 8 minutes I just exit, the checking I have done shows that across a big sample these will not make it and the entry in this case wasn't ideal or the move faltered.

You are on the right track and question every decision and build a set of rules that give you confidence in your decisions.

Good luck.

Hi Nick,

I find that topic very interesting and difficult to have a clear view: Is expecting a trade to take off immediately towards profit land being naive about the randomness of the market? Is it pretending to be able to predict with extreme accuracy a phenomena on which we only have very limited information? Is leaving a trade some time to take off being a bit of a gambler by trading on hope, or is it being mindful about the random moves and leave the trade space and time to move?
We humans try to form patterns from everything to try to make sense of the world, but most of such patterns are pure randomness. Are we fooling ourselves when we try to make patterns when trading? Sure, the markets are not completely random, but enough to make most people lose their money.
Gee, so many questions!

Hope you're doing great with your trading.
Cheers,
Keen246

 

[sun11]

Morning all,
Was these were sweet spots?

Reached daily target under 2 trades with GJ.

 

[sun11]

 

[sun11]

@NickBk

I figure out that unanswered question by myself. Its the PPND, you need to scale out position during doubtful situation. That is the key for 50-70-100 pips. Those pips are not in full stake.

Regards

PS: Its the one year anniversary of this thread. Progressing in slow & steady.

 

[sun11]

 

[Belligerent_Drunk]

@NickBk

I figure out that unanswered question by myself. Its the PPND, you need to scale out position during doubtful situation. That is the key for 50-70-100 pips. Those pips are not in full stake.

Regards

PS: Its the one year anniversary of this thread. Progressing in slow & steady.

:clap: Congratulations!

Most important question, are you happy with the improvement you made over those 12 months? And how is your forward outlook ?

Before all that I'd advise you to celebrate!

 

[sun11]

:clap: Congratulations!

Most important question, are you happy with the improvement you made over those 12 months? And how is your forward outlook ?

Before all that I'd advise you to celebrate!

Hello Koen,

Thank you for your lovely post..

My improvement, I designed lots of excellent & unique tools. (My coding skill improved)
No more over trading problem in my trading life.
Gathered more knowledge on the subject from different angle.
Psychological improvement.
Plus I don't trade in range any more. I only pick the best pair for current time.

Up To this its all ok feels like fit. But it still not the time to celebrate until I gather reasonable profit. Otherwise it will all waste. Everybody wants the end result right.

Still more improvement required for understanding trend properly.

Between hows your trading going on?

Regards

 

[Belligerent_Drunk]

Hello Koen,

Thank you for your lovely post..

My improvement, I designed lots of excellent & unique tools. (My coding skill improved)
No more over trading problem in my trading life.
Gathered more knowledge on the subject from different angle.
Psychological improvement.
Plus I don't trade in range any more. I only pick the best pair for current time.

Up To this its all ok feels like fit. But it still not the time to celebrate until I gather reasonable profit. Otherwise it will all waste. Everybody wants the end result right.

Still more improvement required for understanding trend properly.

Between hows your trading going on?

Regards

Hi Sun!

I thought i'd reply to this post, but I clearly didn't. Glad to hear that you are making progress, in trading and in coding. Have you got clear plans to start understanding trends better?

My trading is going not so well! Took a study break and a a new job in May, so I started trading again in the second week of June. I have to say that my trading detoriated in that period. As a side, I've started playing around with automated systems.

Good trading,

Koen

 

[sun11]

Hi Sun!

I thought i'd reply to this post, but I clearly didn't. Glad to hear that you are making progress, in trading and in coding. Have you got clear plans to start understanding trends better?

My trading is going not so well! Took a study break and a a new job in May, so I started trading again in the second week of June. I have to say that my trading detoriated in that period. As a side, I've started playing around with automated systems.

Good trading,

Koen

Hello Koen,

Congrats on your new Job!

From Mid July to Still now I got little busy with coding. No I was not coding automatic system.. rather helpful tools for aiding the trades.

About trend, price pattern along with it is helpful. I try to memorize all kind of price patterns during certain trend to work better with it. Plus LR visualize too.

If you play around with automated system, let me know about it. I have little faith on it specially in terms of consistency. But I would love to hear your story...

Between my RR ratio has improved. Now I generally get trades above 10 pips.

Best wishes
Regards
S.

 

[JPBerdejo]

Grow more profit and get rich soon

Guys you all have discussed about your loss and profit. some have mentioned their strong eagerness to make profit though you had experienced loss previously. It really inspires me as would also make loss many times but recovered. Now I have set up JPtraders in Miami. And hope it will progress in future. Good luck to you all guys.

 

[NVP]

Hello Koen,

Thank you for your lovely post..

My improvement, I designed lots of excellent & unique tools. (My coding skill improved)
No more over trading problem in my trading life.
Gathered more knowledge on the subject from different angle.
Psychological improvement.
Plus I don't trade in range any more. I only pick the best pair for current time.

Up To this its all ok feels like fit. But it still not the time to celebrate until I gather reasonable profit. Otherwise it will all waste. Everybody wants the end result right.

Still more improvement required for understanding trend properly.

Between hows your trading going on?

Regards

hey Sun ...........

look how far you have come ? ....... the knowledge and experience must be gathered before the profits appear .........that is the nature of trading

it will come :smart:
N

 

[NVP]

Hello Koen,

Congrats on your new Job!

From Mid July to Still now I got little busy with coding. No I was not coding automatic system.. rather helpful tools for aiding the trades.

About trend, price pattern along with it is helpful. I try to memorize all kind of price patterns during certain trend to work better with it. Plus LR visualize too.

If you play around with automated system, let me know about it. I have little faith on it specially in terms of consistency. But I would love to hear your story...

Between my RR ratio has improved. Now I generally get trades above 10 pips.

Best wishes
Regards
S.

Hi Sun .............with all the drama that you have seen from the early days of starting this thread (no fault of your own but some charismatic mentors/traders were involved here eh ?)...I have never got involved that much

I would be happy to offer a little advice if you ever need it .........as you know I never used Forexmospherians approach as I have my own established style

always there for a chat and advice ......if you want to drop me a line at my email address

N

 

[Belligerent_Drunk]

Hi Sun .............with all the drama that you have seen from the early days of starting this thread (no fault of your own but some charismatic mentors/traders were involved here eh ?)...I have never got involved that much

I would be happy to offer a little advice if you ever need it .........as you know I never used Forexmospherians approach as I have my own established style

always there for a chat and advice ......if you want to drop me a line at my email address

N

NVP!

Although I'm not willing to hijack the thread and/or do not know if you are willing to ask my questions as well, BUT, is there someplace where you have summarized the idea/concept behind your correlation strength meter? As in I know there is a high degree of interrelatedness in markets, and I know most statistical techniques, but except for hedging, where does it shine?

The (probably false) view that I now hold is that you either double your exposure or hedge your exposure. So I'd like to understand your point of view better.

Kind regards,

Koen

 

[sun11]

Hi Sun .............with all the drama that you have seen from the early days of starting this thread (no fault of your own but some charismatic mentors/traders were involved here eh ?)...I have never got involved that much

I would be happy to offer a little advice if you ever need it .........as you know I never used Forexmospherians approach as I have my own established style

always there for a chat and advice ......if you want to drop me a line at my email address

N

Good Morning & Thank you NVP for your inspiring comment as always. 1st comment is
"it will come"
Also for the support for advice. I will drop you a mail.
Although I am doing same thing like you did, establishing own style.

Best Regards

 

[sun11]

Climbing with GU, except last sell order got failed.

 

[sun11]

Not posting much here, but that doesn't mean factory is not running.

Today did a pyramid after a long time. Glad that I still had it. Old wine.



Almost 80 pips on real.

 

[sun11]

Did a pyramid once again.

73 pips on real.

It was bearish wedge so I took better price higher.