Live Trades

[hhiusa]

Exactly thats why this thread is for trades and not for theoretical calculations ...

You are so transparent. They are trades based upon mathematics, not charting and sentiment.

You must have mathematics. (1-p)^n. (1-0.5)^5=0.03125. It was a hypothetical situation used to illustrate for Luidin how the probabilities would work.

The brain is a pattern searching and pattern making machine. Thus, it is self-fulfilling. Because the brain tries to create patterns within the things that it sees, it will behave in a heuristic fashion. The more people say and try to act random, the more they behave predictably.

While some can use a non-committal cop-out answer like "past behavior" is not indicative of the future, they could not be more wrong. Firms spend huge money making sure they have accurate historical data for financial instruments.

"Those who fail to learn history, are doomed to repeat it"

 

[hhiusa]

To be honest..i can see how hh's method can work..and here is my reasoning..i bought 100 shares in VXX recently..knowing that VXX is going to move opposite to SPX most of the time..i said to myself..if the trade goes against me i am not worried..as long as my nax drawdown for all non daytrades does not exceed $1,500

what happened..SPX rose after my entry..VXX dropped..i was down close to $300 at one stage..but i waited..as my max drawdown for all open non daytrades was not hit..

I closed the trade for around $260 profit..will check exact profit tonight

so..i know what he is talking about..but of course you must have the correct mindset to trade this way..not everyone can handle drawdowns..which are an integral part of a successful trading method

Yes, I believe drawdowns are an integral of successful trading as well. It is about patience for me.

Buffett says, "when people are freaking out and selling, that is when I am buying and when people are buying, that is when I am selling". It is apropos for people's behavior in the market. They get a little scared and run for the hills. Institutional investors can use this to their advantage.

 

[tar]

You are so transparent. They are trades based upon mathematics, not charting and sentiment.

You must have mathematics. (1-p)^n. (1-0.5)^5=0.03125. It was a hypothetical situation used to illustrate for Luidin how the probabilities would work.

The brain is a pattern searching and pattern making machine. Thus, it is self-fulfilling. Because the brain tries to create patterns within the things that it sees, it will behave in a heuristic fashion. The more people say and try to act random, the more they behave predictably.

While some can use a non-committal cop-out answer like "past behavior" is not indicative of the future, they could not be more wrong. Firms spend huge money making sure they have accurate historical data for financial instruments.

"Those who fail to learn history, are doomed to repeat it"

Didn't see you applying any maths when you said about Luidin's option trade it will start making money only when it reaches the strike price ! Which btw is the furthest from the truth ...

 

[hhiusa]

hh has used probability analysis..which i think might be similar to volatility analysis for options..bell curve stuff and reversion to the mean..he will have to confirm if i am right or wrong

i am not saying his method is not risky..every trading approach has risk involved..but some approaches can be less risky..and how you find out which ones is by using statistics..this is why the brainy guys who are good at maths get well paid jobs

as for no stops..yes..it can work well..or it can work bad for you..but what will have a big effect on the outcome is what instrument you trade..again..this is where the good trader comes in..some are much better than others at screening low risk candidates

all that matters is the results..everything else we may think is irrelevant

You are correct about the part in blue. Volatility is a part of statistics and mathematics. It is calculated using a standard deviation. It is very useful. Larger standard deviations mean that data is more spread out and; thus, more volatile. The market is said to behavor in a Gaussian fashion. This means that you can apply a Gaussian pdf.

 

[Lúidín]

i like this bit.

Complex Cause: the cause identified is only a part of the entire cause of the effect

 

[hhiusa]

i like this bit.

Complex Cause: the cause identified is only a part of the entire cause of the effect

There is a name for that. In fact, there are many different names for that depending upon the situation.

Cum hoc ergo propter hoc
Causal reductionism
False dilemma

 

[Lúidín]

if crude oil takes out this line i might start looking at putting in buy limit order for feb16 40 call at 0.20

 

[hhiusa]

if crude oil takes out this line i might start looking at putting in buy limit order for feb16 40 call at 0.20

What is your target price? How much do you plan to make?

 

[Lúidín]

There is a name for that. In fact, there are many different names for that depending upon the situation.

Cum hoc ergo propter hoc
Causal reductionism
False dilemma

how about ignorance

 

[Lúidín]

many people do not like the word ignorant..it does not bother me at all..in fact..i am ignorant with regard to many things..but i accept the fact..and sometimes make it my business to find out a bit more.. especially if there is money involved

 

[hhiusa]

many people do not like the word ignorant..it does not bother me at all..in fact..i am ignorant with regard to many things..but i accept the fact..and sometimes make it my business to find out a bit more.. especially if there is money involved

Ignorance does not match meanings with those other words. It does cause people to make those conclusions.

Ignorance comes from the Latin ignorare v. (not know). Ignoramus (I do not know), which is what we sometimes call people.

 

[tar]

You must have mathematics. (1-p)^n. (1-0.5)^5=0.03125. It was a hypothetical situation used to illustrate for Luidin how the probabilities would work.

And what are the odds for you to get it right in the 5 stocks ? What about if you bought the 5 stocks in different days what are the odds then to be wrong in 5 trades ? What about the sp500 what are the odds for 100 stocks to end in the red the same day ?

That being said it doesn't matter how many times you are wrong or right but rather how big are your losses/winnings , so basically even if you only got it wrong 1 in 10 you still may end up losing money especially when you take profit at +1-3% and hold and wait and double down when you are wrong .

Good Luck

 

[Lúidín]

if recent high is not taken out..we might quickly see more down..low today for feb16 40 call is 0.25

 

[hhiusa]

And what are the odds for you to get it right in the 5 stocks ? What about if you bought the 5 stocks in different days what are the odds then to be wrong in 5 trades ? What about the sp500 what are the odds for 100 stocks to end in the red the same day ?

That being said it doesn't matter how many times you are wrong or right but rather how big are your losses/winnings , so basically even if you only got it wrong 1 in 10 you still may end up losing money especially when you take profit at +1-3% and hold and wait and double down when you are wrong .

Good Luck

Your posts are so angry. You should take a breather. Calm down, it will be ok.

 

[Lúidín]

Ignorance does not match meanings with those other words. It does cause people to make those conclusions.

Ignorance comes from the Latin ignorare v. (not know). Ignoramus (I do not know), which is what we sometimes call people.

i agree..lets see how ignorant i am to the nymex gangsters

 

[hhiusa]

i agree..lets see how ignorant i am to the nymex gangsters

Did you get roughed up by the NYMEX gangsters?

 

[Lúidín]

no..my option trades on nymex usually work out ok..cl is way too risky for outright ftrs..it moves up and down so fast it is ideal for options..must wait though till time is right..as with 1000 multiplier the options are not cheap..i tend to not go over $400 in premium paid out..and also use take profit orders..as your profit can disappear very quickly if you don't keep an eye on market

 

[hhiusa]

no..my option trades on nymex usually work out ok..cl is way too risky for outright ftrs..it moves up and down so fast it is ideal for options..must wait though till time is right..as with 1000 multiplier the options are not cheap..i tend to not go over $400 in premium paid out..and also use take profit orders..as your profit can disappear very quickly if you don't keep an eye on market

Do you watch the market the entire time that you are in a trade?

 

[Lúidín]

just put in a gtc order..damn..those ads ar very annoying..must get an adblocker for my mobile phone

 

[Lúidín]

Do you watch the market the entire time that you are in a trade?

i will watch it everyday whenever i can..i make sure i have profit takers in if i can't watch..got caught a few times..gave back money..i also do a lot of work on my own trading setup..as i can't get the info i want with normal broker packages..