Live Trades

[Lúidín]

filled

 

[hhiusa]

If you will not write it here, then please PM me. You have not answered my question about risk.

 

[Lúidín]

If you will not write it here, then please PM me. You have not answered my question about risk.

You said the chances of your stocks going to zero is just over 3%.

What are the chances of them going against you by 5%, 10%, 20% and 30%

 

[hhiusa]

You said the chances of your stocks going to zero is just over 3%.

What are the chances of them going against you by 5%, 10%, 20% and 30%

No, I did not say that. I said that there was a 44% chance for a maximum risk of loss of 15% using 95% confidence. See post #248.

So there was maximum 44% risk of loss of up to 15%.

For INTU it was 33% risk of loss of up to 2.3%

 

[Lúidín]

stop moved to 0.40

 

[hhiusa]

By the way, remember when you said not to buy INTU. I bought yesterday 300 @ 98.17

 

[Lúidín]

stop hit..out at 0.39

 

[hhiusa]

stop hit..out at 0.39

You bought a call option at 0.33. What was the price of the underlying instrument? What was the premium? What was the price of the underlying instrument when you stopped out?

 

[Lúidín]

You bought a call option at 0.33. What was the price of the underlying instrument? What was the premium? What was the price of the underlying instrument when you stopped out?

later when on laptop

 

[hhiusa]

later when on laptop

Alright, but why can you not write it right now?

 

[Lúidín]

cause i am with people

 

[hhiusa]

Very Low Risk
BUY MKT AIG:US
if time >= 2015-12-29 12:55:00 PST & Last >= 61.85
SELL GTC LMT AIG
if price >= 1.03 * buy price

BUY MKT NFLX:US
if time >= 2015-12-29 12:59:00 PST & Last >= 117.15
SELL GTC LMT NFLX
if price >= 1.025 * buy price

Low Risk
BUY MKT PTC:US
if time >= 2015-12-29 12:59:00 PST & Last >= 35.59
SELL GTC LMT PTC
if price >= 1.02 * buy price
Volume is low today. Do not expose more than 0.5% of trading volume.

Medium Risk
BUY MKT PVTB:US
if time >= 2015-12-29 12:59:00 PST & Last >= 42.31
SELL GTC LMT PVTB:US
if price >= 1.015 * buy price
Volume is low today. Do not expose more than 0.5% of trading volume.

BUY MKT LEN:US
if time >= 2015-12-29 12:55:00 PST & Last >= 49.65
SELL GTC LMT LEN
if price >= 1.015 * buy price

BUY MKT NBIX:US
if time >= 2015-12-29 12:55:00 PST & Last >= 53.69
SELL GTC LMT NBIX
if price >= 1.025 * buy price

High Risk
BUY MKT BC:US
if time >= 2015-12-29 12:55:00 PST & Last >= 50.21
SELL GTC LMT BC
if price >= 1.015 * buy price

BUY MKT PVTB:US
if time >= 2015-12-29 12:55:00 PST & Last >= 42.67
SELL GTC LMT PVTB:US
if price >= 1.025 * buy price

BUY MKT FL:US
if time >= 2015-12-29 12:55:00 PST & Last >= 65.29
SELL GTC LMT FL
if price >= 1.015 * buy price

BUY MKT POL:US
if time >= 2015-12-29 12:55:00 PST & Last >= 32.50
SELL GTC LMT POL
if price >= 1.015 * buy price

BUY MKT HAS:US
if time >= 2015-12-29 12:55:00 PST & Last >= 68.04
SELL GTC LMT HAS
if price >= 1.015 * buy price

 

[Lúidín]

You bought a call option at 0.33. What was the price of the underlying instrument? 18.99 What was the premium? 0.33 What was the price of the underlying instrument when you stopped out? 19.15

see bold

 

[Lúidín]

If you will not write it here, then please PM me. You have not answered my question about risk.

Sum up your argument and i will reply with my thoughts.

 

[hhiusa]

see bold

So help me to understand. A contract @18.99 with a premium of 0.33. Premium = $33. (19.15-18.99)*100 = $16. The trade brought you $16 - $33 premium = -$17 - commission.

 

[Lúidín]

No, I did not say that. I said that there was a 44% chance for a maximum risk of loss of 15% using 95% confidence. See post #248.

You said the following..

The probability that all 5 will be losers is 3.125%.

You are correct, as you did not say the chances of them going to zero was just over 3%..my error.

You can still answer my question if you like, about the chances of your trades moving against you by 5%, 10%, 20% and 30%

 

[hhiusa]

You said the following..

The probability that all 5 will be losers is 3.125%.

You are correct, as you did not say the chances of them going to zero was just over 3%..my error.

You can still answer my question if you like, about the chances of your trades moving against you by 5%, 10%, 20% and 30%

For which equity?

 

[Lúidín]

So help me to understand. A contract @18.99 with a premium of 0.33. Premium = $33. (19.15-18.99)*100 = $16. The trade brought you $16 - $33 premium = -$17 - commission.

I will take it you are serious.

I bought an "at the money" option with a delta of approx 0.5xxx..which means the option price i paid..0.33..will increase roughly by 0.005 cent for every 0.01 cent increase in the VXX

the more the VXX increases above the 19 strike price..the more the delta will increase towards 1.00..so if VXX rose to 20..the option price would be moving close to 1 cent for a 1 cent move in VXX

VXX rose 0.16 cent..my option price rose 0.06 cent..which is correct as delta roughly 0.5xxxx..as half of 16 is 8..the 0.02 diff is due to the other maths calcs in model..but as rule of thumb..delta is ok as a fairly ok guide

profit = 0.39 - 0.33 = 0.06 x 300 = $18 - $5.12 = approx $13

this was of course a live example..i should have tightened stop more based on charts..but is shows how options can be used to daytrade..but you must be aware of delta..and watch the VXX closely

there are many ways to trade options as you know..what i do is use them for very short term trades..i might sometimes hold..it all depends on what i think might happen..and how i am feeling

the biggest problem holding options is time decay..plus the trading time..stock options are only from 09:30 to 16:15..big drawback..so sometimes i trade crude oil options and es/spx options..but they are bigger risk and usually for a few days or even a few weeks..

there are many ways to make..and lose money..the best way is the way that makes you money for small risk..common sense

oh yes..another big problem with options..especially on low volume stocks..is the spread..and that is why..for daytrading with options..it is best to stick to the likes of aapl..vxx..and other highly liquid stocks/etf's

 

[Lúidín]

For which equity?

any stock..it does not matter..if different you can give 2 if you like to show the diff

 

[Lúidín]

i hope mt doesn't think we are hijacking his thread