hungrybear
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bonsai
Just noticed your post about NOT shorting. I took it this time +8, but it was a bit of a gamble.
FWIW - and bear in mind I think there's a lot of downside to go, through to Tuesday, before we head up again, my preferred wave count is that we've completed a B wave (of a wave 4) up from early July, so we could go as low or lower than 3950. Seems a bit far, which is another good reason for me not to trust my count - LOL. Of course wave C can fail, so we may never know. Is this enough ammunition for the EW doubters....
Just noticed your post about NOT shorting. I took it this time +8, but it was a bit of a gamble.
FWIW - and bear in mind I think there's a lot of downside to go, through to Tuesday, before we head up again, my preferred wave count is that we've completed a B wave (of a wave 4) up from early July, so we could go as low or lower than 3950. Seems a bit far, which is another good reason for me not to trust my count - LOL. Of course wave C can fail, so we may never know. Is this enough ammunition for the EW doubters....
hungrybear
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Yes - B would finish at 184. The main reason I think this is a B wave is that the waves are overlapping, extending into what would otherwise be a wave 1 impulse. This is not alowed in EW rules except in a wave 2, but this can't be the case here. Further, this move has taken a whole month to move just 230 points, which I think is too slow for an impulsive wave. It's most likely to be an abc-X-abc.
If I'm wrong, and this has been an impulse up, it must be wave 1 of 5, in which case the Ftse is going much higher in August/September, but it just doesn't count cleanly. I think this count is unlikely.
If I'm wrong, and this has been an impulse up, it must be wave 1 of 5, in which case the Ftse is going much higher in August/September, but it just doesn't count cleanly. I think this count is unlikely.
I can buy that.
but the issue today is what is the high at 172 ?
I think it is a 'b' and not a 2.
so we are now actually in 'c'
it may all turn out to be an abc of A with another rally to come.
this is all getting so confusing, perhaps we had better start
posting charts with our counts ?
can all you ew fans do that ?
I'll try and post something in my journal over the weekend.
and then we can take it apart on Monday?
but the issue today is what is the high at 172 ?
I think it is a 'b' and not a 2.
so we are now actually in 'c'
it may all turn out to be an abc of A with another rally to come.
this is all getting so confusing, perhaps we had better start
posting charts with our counts ?
can all you ew fans do that ?
I'll try and post something in my journal over the weekend.
and then we can take it apart on Monday?
hungrybear
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You could be right. I'm not happy with the wave count over the last few days either. This goes back to my point about corrective waves. Either wave 2 or wave 4 is complex and this sure is a complex wave. Having recognised that it's a complex corrective wave it's almost worthless trying to put a count on it, but there is value just in recognising that it is corrective wave as that helps to identify the potential wave count at a higher level and to project potential targets. It also means that extra care has to be taken when trading as the market can whipsaw, other signals can start giving spurious signals, and waves can appear to correct or impulse in both directions. . This is the point I was trying to make earlier.
Do we really want to clog up this thread with numerous wave counts from numerous watchers. Is it not just going to lead to confusion? I will disappear if we get this confusion as it will only be distracting (if only to me). Please could everyone read Piper and his health warning re EW.
Instead lets have more discussion and examples of low risk trades.
Instead lets have more discussion and examples of low risk trades.
barjon
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Mully
Maybe it's not about foresight either - but just following
the market.
If anyone's interested in foresight clues other than EWs
you may be interested to know that 9 of my ftse 12
(a slightly different list than Bonsai's) have appeared in
my "get ready to short" watch list.
RBS, AZN, HBOS and LLOY have all retreated from double/
triple tops. HSBC has failed twice to penetrate
resistance. TSCO has slipped out of channel.
By breaking through swing lows some time ago DGE,
GSK (already short in these) and SHLL are in downtrend
although GSK and SHLL are sitting on Fib50 support just
now.
With so many bear markers down the market is almost
bound to rise!! But unless our american friend does great
things today I'll not be too comfortable with extended longs
for a bit.
As usual only time (and the market) will tell.
good trading
jon
Maybe it's not about foresight either - but just following
the market.
If anyone's interested in foresight clues other than EWs
you may be interested to know that 9 of my ftse 12
(a slightly different list than Bonsai's) have appeared in
my "get ready to short" watch list.
RBS, AZN, HBOS and LLOY have all retreated from double/
triple tops. HSBC has failed twice to penetrate
resistance. TSCO has slipped out of channel.
By breaking through swing lows some time ago DGE,
GSK (already short in these) and SHLL are in downtrend
although GSK and SHLL are sitting on Fib50 support just
now.
With so many bear markers down the market is almost
bound to rise!! But unless our american friend does great
things today I'll not be too comfortable with extended longs
for a bit.
As usual only time (and the market) will tell.
good trading
jon
Be-Positive - Where did you get my picture from? Bonsai - Very good day today with the 1 minute D4F 60/100/5 MACD setting. Missed your PPS earlier about posting trades but I will post some shortly if people are interested. I am still a novice though and a bit trigger happy when in profit but the +46 on Thursday was a real breakthrough for me as my previous best was +15. I`m sure the MACD setting is worth a look and a more experienced trader would do well with it.
Mully
"Do we really want to clog up this thread with numerous wave counts from numerous watchers. "
-------------------------------------------------------------------------
I agree. Even trying to spell out a wave count in words is both
complicated and messy.
(and it's not usually an intraday issue )
It's my fault as I think I started it.
I just felt the very quick B wave on Thursday was so important
and obvious (to me) that I should alert you.
I shall try to cease and desist.
Perhaps I should have pointed out instead that it was a snake !
"Do we really want to clog up this thread with numerous wave counts from numerous watchers. "
-------------------------------------------------------------------------
I agree. Even trying to spell out a wave count in words is both
complicated and messy.
(and it's not usually an intraday issue )
It's my fault as I think I started it.
I just felt the very quick B wave on Thursday was so important
and obvious (to me) that I should alert you.
I shall try to cease and desist.
Perhaps I should have pointed out instead that it was a snake !
Last edited:
just looking back on friday.
I didnt mention that there are 2 fibs around 95
4183/3952/62%
4183/4045/38%
so it wasnt likely the fib traders would let it break that easily
and would see this mornings fall as a buy.
also we fell to the middle of the previous 4th.
I didnt mention that there are 2 fibs around 95
4183/3952/62%
4183/4045/38%
so it wasnt likely the fib traders would let it break that easily
and would see this mornings fall as a buy.
also we fell to the middle of the previous 4th.
Sledgehammer
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E2T not working till 09.00, so not in market for the up-leg
future just popped up to 19, went to sell at market. i would then have had a stop at 4143. E2T blocked all trades as they are closing down. account balance being transferred tomorrow.
great shame. they are a terrific bunch of people and have a great platform.
might think about spread better now?
(but off to Rally Finland tomorrow for a week, so wait till i'm back)
edit:... should have written r@lly!
future just popped up to 19, went to sell at market. i would then have had a stop at 4143. E2T blocked all trades as they are closing down. account balance being transferred tomorrow.
great shame. they are a terrific bunch of people and have a great platform.
might think about spread better now?
(but off to Rally Finland tomorrow for a week, so wait till i'm back)
edit:... should have written r@lly!