Despite my protestations about using EW, cannot the whole move from 18/06/2003 be classified as a Wave 4-profit taking. A basically extended sideways move.
Probably wrong thread. Any thoughts on the extreme moves by the US bond market since early June of over 1.2% yield in 30Y Bond? (+38%). When does it become an issue for the overall health of US economy/global economy?
Probably wrong thread. Any thoughts on the extreme moves by the US bond market since early June of over 1.2% yield in 30Y Bond? (+38%). When does it become an issue for the overall health of US economy/global economy?
hungrybear
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I've been reviewing interpretations of the EW pattern for the Dow (yes I know this is the Ftse thread) and I don't think I have enough fingers to count them all. I do like EW, but right now it's useless, other than to say the markets at or near a top. It could go down or up from here, but other indicators suggest at least a 2 day down move. Personally I'll be looking for another pop up from mid-next week; then just have to see how high it goes by the 3rd week of August.
mully
yes but then the stockmarkets were making new highs.
anyway correlation with bonds is not that good.
different traders involved I guess. so different trading reasons.
usually a lag between changes in bonds and stockmarket tops.
but it is a warning sign when at new highs.
yes but then the stockmarkets were making new highs.
anyway correlation with bonds is not that good.
different traders involved I guess. so different trading reasons.
usually a lag between changes in bonds and stockmarket tops.
but it is a warning sign when at new highs.
hungrybear said:
hungrybear........how often do you hear people say that EW is not working "at the moment" or that EW does'nt "really work" for equities or "my count must be wrong" ?
bonsai and others posting here are great fans of John Piper. Read what he says about EW, he is highly critical,, and yet even he makes constant reference to the various waves in his market analysis. I suppose that that once you've studied it you become infected ?
I'll bet that if elliot had come up with a formula that stipulated 8 waves up and 5 down then Prechter and Frost would have been able to "curve fit" the data just as well as they have with the existing formula.
Anybody else think its a load of nonsense ?
barjon, here you go.
It only gives you 1 min or 5 min.
<img src="http://chart.bigcharts.com/bc3/intchart/frames/chart.asp?symb=uk%3A1805550&compidx=aaaaa%3A0&ma=0&maval=9&uf=0&lf=1&lf2=0&lf3=0&type=32&size=2&state=8&sid=123797&style=320&time=2&freq=9&comp=NO%5FSYMBOL%5FCHOSEN&nosettings=1&rand=9351&mocktick=1">
<a href="http://bigcharts.marketwatch.com/intchart/frames/frames.asp?symb=uk:1805550&time=2&freq=9">here is the link</a>
It only gives you 1 min or 5 min.
<img src="http://chart.bigcharts.com/bc3/intchart/frames/chart.asp?symb=uk%3A1805550&compidx=aaaaa%3A0&ma=0&maval=9&uf=0&lf=1&lf2=0&lf3=0&type=32&size=2&state=8&sid=123797&style=320&time=2&freq=9&comp=NO%5FSYMBOL%5FCHOSEN&nosettings=1&rand=9351&mocktick=1">
<a href="http://bigcharts.marketwatch.com/intchart/frames/frames.asp?symb=uk:1805550&time=2&freq=9">here is the link</a>
Just a thought lads,
Wondering why none of you guys use the T2win chat forum? If you type /join #x in the chat window on the advanced T2w chat system it opens up a new channel that was intended for those that wish to trade the FT 100 or future, I,m on it now, but there only me there.....prehaps that tells me somthing?
Wondering why none of you guys use the T2win chat forum? If you type /join #x in the chat window on the advanced T2w chat system it opens up a new channel that was intended for those that wish to trade the FT 100 or future, I,m on it now, but there only me there.....prehaps that tells me somthing?
hungrybear
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waqr
I've admitted EW's pretty useless right now, but that's the nature of the corrective phase. There are several elements of EW which do work well, including the difference between impulsive and corrective waves and the psychology behind the different wave moves. Even a historical perspective is interesting as it gives an idea of where the markets are likely to be heading in the longer time frame.
However, it is addictive and it's addictive because it has plenty to recommend it and to help in making trading decisions. That said, every trader has to be comfortable with the techniques they use, so if you think EW is rubbish then you're clearly not going to use it to back any decisions you make. Then again, there are some techniques I don't use - but it doesn't mean they're rubbish.
I've admitted EW's pretty useless right now, but that's the nature of the corrective phase. There are several elements of EW which do work well, including the difference between impulsive and corrective waves and the psychology behind the different wave moves. Even a historical perspective is interesting as it gives an idea of where the markets are likely to be heading in the longer time frame.
However, it is addictive and it's addictive because it has plenty to recommend it and to help in making trading decisions. That said, every trader has to be comfortable with the techniques they use, so if you think EW is rubbish then you're clearly not going to use it to back any decisions you make. Then again, there are some techniques I don't use - but it doesn't mean they're rubbish.
hungrybear
My major problem is with any methodology that suggests predictive qualities. You cannnot predict the market full stop. All you can do is take low risk positions and be lethal about cutting "wrong" positions. I have no idea where markets are going but if a low risk position works out correct I run with it until the market tells me to cut (fails to take out resisitance etc)
EW is predictive by nature. Markets exist because there is uncertainty about the future. If the future was predictable markets would collapse,because we would immediately go to the level suggested. Thats the problem with EW. It doesn't mean that a very clear will be seen by lots of EW follows and I do not mind taking advantage of it, but no more than that.
My major problem is with any methodology that suggests predictive qualities. You cannnot predict the market full stop. All you can do is take low risk positions and be lethal about cutting "wrong" positions. I have no idea where markets are going but if a low risk position works out correct I run with it until the market tells me to cut (fails to take out resisitance etc)
EW is predictive by nature. Markets exist because there is uncertainty about the future. If the future was predictable markets would collapse,because we would immediately go to the level suggested. Thats the problem with EW. It doesn't mean that a very clear will be seen by lots of EW follows and I do not mind taking advantage of it, but no more than that.
Sorry that last message was sent in a hurry as i heard a blood curdling scream from one of my children.
I meant to say is that when a VERY clear 5 wave pattern appears I am fully aware EW followers will be getting exciting and acting on it. I term that a low risk entry. But that is all.
As they say any methodology is only correct if price action confirms it.
I meant to say is that when a VERY clear 5 wave pattern appears I am fully aware EW followers will be getting exciting and acting on it. I term that a low risk entry. But that is all.
As they say any methodology is only correct if price action confirms it.
hungrybear
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"My major problem is with any methodology that suggests predictive qualities. You cannot predict the market full stop."
This is actually where EW is very strong. It does predict the market and provides clear and definitive stop points to get out of a trade. In other words, when you enter a position based on a wave count, there are definitive points which state that the wave count is wrong, which can then be used as exit points.
Any trading system is predictive, otherwise why use it, but no system is perfect so predictions can be wrong. If a system isn't predicting the likely direction of the market it's no better than flipping a coin.
This is actually where EW is very strong. It does predict the market and provides clear and definitive stop points to get out of a trade. In other words, when you enter a position based on a wave count, there are definitive points which state that the wave count is wrong, which can then be used as exit points.
Any trading system is predictive, otherwise why use it, but no system is perfect so predictions can be wrong. If a system isn't predicting the likely direction of the market it's no better than flipping a coin.
hungrybear
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I should add, as I've said before, that I don't find EW useful on its own. I use it as one of 3-4 tools and look for alignment between them, on any time frame.