FTSE 100 Intraday trading - August 2003

[barjon]

Thanks bonsai

jon

 

[mully]

US Non farm payrolls down 44K, 6.2% unemployment. So slightly below consensus. No great surprise to impact US/UK markets from this data?

 

[mully]

Oohps just gone thru intra-day lows!!!!!

 

[cguesty]

Mully,
I believe the reason why EW is able to predict is somethiing due to the markets being highly emotional. EW supposedly maps the various phases of mass human psychology.

Some people do take it to extreme. I find some of Pretcher's predictions a bit melodramatic.

HungryBear - there are a couple of good pages in the public charts of www.stockcharts.com that provide interesting Dow counts in particular :-

http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/Favorites.CServlet?obj=ID418831

 

[bonsai]

mully
yes but be careful they dont jerk you around on this one.

 

[hungrybear]

cguesty Thanks, I do follow RH, though he's been a bit out recently. For trading the Dow with ongoing daily update, Bartley's particularly good, but she's on holiday. Right now, my preferred scenario is that outlined by Raptor, as I think we're going down for 2-3 days then up to new highs. This fits with other cycle analysis I use.

 

[taxibrod]

Ok,doky,( ok)

 

[bonsai]

do you get the feeling that somebody just pulled their
order book at 135 and reistated it at 115 ?

in the lead up to the Dow open.

 

[waqr]

HB

Elliot categorised diff degrees of trend ranging from a grand supercycle to one covering only a few hours. The point is that either you accept that the markets conform to the eight wave cycle or you do as I do and reject it, but to suggest that EW's "pretty useless right now" is like saying that you'll believe it when it fits in with the rest of your analysis.

The essential point is whether markets move in the eight wave cycle that elliot described. I do'nt believe that they do and as I said in my earlier post, the EW theory could have been set up to describe 13 waves and the result would be the same as we have now with 8 waves.

 

[bonsai]

looks like first serious break of that fib ?
and the fall is following that top line from the 172 high

needs to accelerate or reverse ?

 

[hungrybear]

waqr

It's not a case of choosing when I believe it; it's about recognising when it's in a phase that's useful to support my trading. Right now I don't trust my wave count assessment due to the ambiguous nature of the corrective phase it's in. But that's part of understanding EW. In a way it is giving me useful information!

I do believe that the markets move in the 8 wave cycle, which also makes perfect sense from a logical perspective.

Bottom line is that I like EW and you dont. It doesn't matter as long as we trade successfully!

 

[bonsai]

elliott
if we can agree the last rally started at 4045 and we have had
5 legs up to 184 then this correction should be heading for
previous 4th .I suspect that is around 4080.

Anyone else see the same thing ?

 

[bonsai]

Also if we can agree that 4115 yesterday was the end
of A and (although I had no takers) the rally yesterday was B.
then A=70 so if C=A*1.38, C=4075.

its all hocus pocus of course.

 

[mully]

unless of course price action supports it

 

[barjon]

bonsai

don't know about ew but there's candlestick
support (minor) at 4087.

all ftse 12 are losers at the moment.

jon

 

[bonsai]

data coming thru' a bit late but

1 BP 418 -8
2 Shell 385 -4
3 AstrZen 2433 -50
4 GlxoSmK 1155 -37
5 HSBCord 766 -4
6 RoyBank 1736 -21
7 Barclay 458 -10
8 LloyTSB 457 -26
9 Diageo 632 -3
10 BT Grp 195 0
11 Vodafon 115 -3
12 AngloAm 1083 2
13 Cadbury 378 1
14 RioTint 1306 16
15 Tesco 212 -3
16 Unileve 505 -5

 

[bonsai]

mully
well, we got that acceleration so maybe its own momentum
might be enough.

 

[bonsai]

may have to give it best soon.
starting to get too close to the close.
but todays chart pattern is so good you may see it in text books in the future.
almost the ideal day traders pattern.

 

[Tubbs]

I get major support at 4100 and we have bounced (I missed it - monday will do)- a new move up to high coming - Check out the new site

http://ftseswingtrader.mysite.freeserve.com/index.html

 

[bonsai]

sometimes its so predictable.
after that fall at 4pm who is going to go short ?
so the mm's can just take out many shorts with almost
no hassle. Their only threat is probably the locals.