FTSE 100 intraday trading - JULY 2003

[hungrybear]

bonsai,

I agree with you. There are multiple issues which suggest there can't be much upside to this market, though unlike the Dow & S&P, the Ftse and particularly the Dax have already had strong corrections, so rangebound between say 4500 (max) and the low 3000s seems likely for some time. This also suggests a flat correction. I have a similar target to you for the Ftse at around 2500 - I'm not at my main computer so can't check it, but it's a key support and fib level. I don't expect this to be hit until 2006.

The issue we face is how best to trade the market and if we're right in the sideways trading range at least we're then part-way to considering appropriate strategies. For instance, Bollinger Bands are likely to be very appropriate in determining at least short-term points, but Fib levels wil be difficult to project unless the wave count is clear, which it isn't when a market's trading in a range. Any other thoughts on this would be appreciated!

 

[bonsai]

agree fibs may not be too reliable in that environment
and oscillators may have their day although of long duration.
but I would expect trend lines to continue to be useful
while one side or the other holds sway.

we had a similar period after the 87 crash although it was
inverted because there was an underlying bull strentgh.
( I counted the crash as an A)

if the current rally is an A then the fall will be a B.
They are notoriously difficult , imo and many many people
will lose money yet again unless they have a road map of sorts.

Unfortunately Elliott is the only one that seems to have value.

 

[bonsai]

PS : only God knows what the count on the Dow really is.
and he is not telling !

 

[hungrybear]

The Dow's in wave 4 of C of 1 of E of 3 of 4 of a very complex triangle, and it could go up or down! :cheesy:

 

[bonsai]

Ah !
thank you God !

lol

time for lunch

 

[2468steve]

bonsai,HB
Interesting thread.Doesn't this show tho' that it is difficult to determine exactly what wave we're in,and can only determine this once the following wave has started.

 

[cguesty]

I agree with you on that 2468steve, EW is good for narrowing down the possibilities, but it's price action that determines which one is correct. It's then a question of building a strategy that allows you to profit from that knowledge

 

[bonsai]

agree with both of you.

remind me not to have lunch.
lunch is for whimps they say.
come back and its up 30 !

 

[hungrybear]

2468steve, to an extent yes. EW is always clear after the event. However, there are also times when the path is clear. Now isn't that time, but impulsive waves, particularly wave 3, and either wave 2 or 4 retracements often are (either wave 2 or wave 4 is a 'simple' abc). Equally, when the count isn't clear, and waves are overlapping, it's also possibly to determine that the market is in a correction mode, so whilst EW can't be used clearly, it does help in determining the potential market moves.

Personally, I like EW but only find it useful in conjunction with other tools. Fib analysis works well with EW, but I use a 30 MA on 2min & 5min and Stochastics for day trading

 

[2468steve]

HB,
thanks for reply.But where do you know where to take your first wave from?

 

[bonsai]

ok elliot fans. How about something live ?
from the previous high 184 until now
who reckons we have seen an A with a very quick B with C just
started ?

 

[bonsai]

I did suggest it might be more volatile today.

what do you think of it so far ?



scalpers xmas ?

 

[2468steve]

Bonsai,
we have wave A,into down wave B,then into up...........no hang on,down....yeah right first time,up wave C......doh,now supercycle stage 1 down.....I really must get a handle on this EW.

Cheers

 

[mully]

Who cares what EW is saying or not saying!!!!. Are we making money. Interestingly, FTSE held support at 4115, had retest and has since gone better. On a short term basis that must be seen as a positive.

 

[bonsai]

I have the dow up 133
and ftse up 18

?

I would suggest the risk is that dow tops out at 9400
overnight.

and the big boys may be waiting.
but are not prepared to push ftse up to a new high.

 

[2468steve]

On a short term basis that must be seen as a positive

If the US hadn't turned around we would have gone straight thru and tested 4080/90 instead.
As it stands Dow up 139 and we've tacked on 19.Hardly +ve

Cheers

 

[mully]

2468steve

I do not forecast, I only observe. The market could have taken out previous support but did not. The US needn't have turned around, but it did....My comments referred to "short term"- i think that is true.
I have no idea what the markets will do. What I do not do is try to formulate an expectation (based on personal EW view) on where I want the market to go ( to justify my position???). The market will do what it has to do. All I do is notice where it holds or breaks support/resistance and very humbly follow the markets lead.

 

[mully]

I forgot to add that a short term move from 4115 to 4160 (current) is not to be sniffed at , by me certainly. But then I am no star trader, just humbly following the market's lead. Tomorrow is another day another opportunity etc...

 

[mully]

one last thought for the day, before I have to go and get the children their tea (having already spent 2 hours at the local swimming pool keeping them occupied at lunchtime!)

Remember it is not about being right (EW tries to satisfy that need) but MAKING MONEY that is important.

 

[bonsai]

mully
by the time the market opens tomorrow it may well have
been a positive.
Has formed the makings of a pennant ? ready for a big rise
up to 4200 .

but if the dow tops out people will say we started wave C this afternoon.

The market will always be ambiguous , imo