Forex Analysis by LiteForex

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EUR/USD: general analysis

Current trend

The EUR/USD pair is moving up and strengthened by 35 points in the previous trading session. Yesterday US macroeconomic statistics had almost no influence on dynamics in the pair. It should, nevertheless, be noted that the number of initial jobless claims remained unchanged at 254,000 while economists expected an increase to 265,000. Today market participants will be following data on the Consumer Price Index and Retail Sales, due in the US at 2:30 pm (GMT+2).

Support and resistance

Bollinger Bands on the 4-hour chart is directed up. MACD histogram is in the positive zone, and its volumes are growing.
The indicators recommend long positions.
Support levels: 1.1115, 1.1087, 1.1050, 1.1010.
Resistance levels: 1.1148, 1.1185, 1.1220, 1.1276.

Trading tips

Long positions can be opened above the level of 1.1148 with targets at 1.1185 and 1.1220.
Short positions can be opened below the level of 1.1087 with targets at 1.1050 and 1.1010.

 

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UKBrent: technical analysis

BRENT, D1

On the daily chart, the instrument is trading in the lower Bollinger band. The indicator is directed down while the price range is expanding. MACD histogram entered the negative zone and formed a sell signal. Stochastic is approaching the oversold zone.

BRENT, H4

On the 4-hour chart, the instrument broke down a strong support level at 47.38. Bollinger Bands is directed horizontally while the price range is narrowing, suggesting a change in the trend possibility. MACD histogram is trying to turn up but keeping a sell signal. Stochastic is about to enter the oversold zone.

Key levels

Support levels: 46.47 (local low), 46.09, 45.71 (lower MA of Bollinger Bands).
Resistance levels: 47.38, 47.91, 48.63 (middle MA of Bollinger Bands), 49.20.

Trading tips

Short positions can be opened from current prices with the target at 45.71 and stop-loss at 47.38. Validity – 1-2 days.
Long positions can be opened from the level of 47.91 with targets at 48.30, 48.65 and stop-loss at 47.15. Validity – 1-2 days.

 

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USD/CAD: pair trades flat

Current trend

The USD/CAD pair started this week with a growth but then lost most of its gains. This dynamics in the pair can be explained by the lack of important macroeconomic publications in the US and fluctuation in the oil market.
The price of oil lost about 2 percent on Friday after data on crude supplies and the number of active oil rigs were released. Genscape reported an increase of 26,460 barrels in the week to 15 July at Cushing delivery hub. Data from Baker Hughes showed that the number of active oil rigs rose by six to 357. These statistics are seen as a negative factor that might cause a shift in the supply and demand fragile balance in the oil market.

Support and resistance

Bollinger Bands on the daily chart is moving horizontally while the price range remains narrow. MACD is trying to turn up while still keeping a sell signal. Stochastic is turning up near the border of the oversold zone.
Support levels: 1.2962, 1.2930, 1.2900, 1.2861 (local low), 1.2831 (4 July low), 1.2800, 1.2762, 1.2700 (23 June level).
Resistance levels: 1.3000, 1.3021 (local high), 1.3055, 1.3083, 1.3100, 1.3139 (11 July high).

Trading tips

Long positions can be opened above the level of 1.3000 (with appropriate indicators signals) with targets at 1.3100, 1.3139 and stop-loss at 1.2962, 1.2950. Validity – 2-3 days.
Short positions can be opened after the price rebounds down from the level of 1.3000 with the target at 1.2900 and stop-loss at 1.3050. Validity – 2-3 days.

 

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XAG/USD: technical analysis

XAG/USD, H4

On the 4-hour chart, the instrument is moving down along the lower MA of Bollinger Bands. The price remains above EMA100 and EMA144, both directed up, and below EMA50. MACD histogram is in the negative zone, and its volumes are gradually growing. The indicator is giving a sell signal. Stochastic is falling.

XAG/USD, D1

On the daily chart, the instrument rebounded down from the upper MA of Bollinger Bands in the region of 20.50 and is now moving towards the middle MA. At present, the price remains above EMA50, EMA100 and EMA144 that are directed up. MACD histogram is in the positive zone, and its volumes, having reached their highs, are now gradually falling. The indicator is giving a sell signal. Stochastic lines are directed down.

Key levels

Support levels: 19.70, 19.45, 19.00, 18.30, 18.00, 17.50, 17.20, 16.65, 16.30, 15.80.
Resistance levels: 20.00, 20.25, 20.50, 20.95, 21.15.

Trading tips

According to the indicators, short positions are preferable and can be opened from the level of 19.70 with targets at 19.45, 19.00 and stop-loss at 19.85. Validity – 1-2 days.
Long positions can be opened from the level of 20.00 with targets at 20.25, 20.50 and stop-loss at 19.90. Validity – 1-3 days.

 

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EUR/USD: general review

Current trend

The pair continues trading at its local lows amid weakening in the Euro, which remains under pressure prior to the ECB monetary policy meeting. According to forecasts, the regulator will keep its interest rate unchanged but will announce its readiness to further ease monetary policy in the nearest future. At the same time, additional uncertainty to ECB’s decision comes from a growing problem in the Italian banking sector, which could worsen the situation of UK’s departure from the European Union. According to the IMF estimates, the total size of bad debts on banks’ balance sheets amounts to around 360 billion Euro.
In addition, the pair is pressured by strengthening in the Dollar that receives support from strong macroeconomic statistics from the US. The latest data increased the probability of an interest rate hike by the Fed before the year-end.

Support and resistance

The nearest support level is at 1.0984.
The nearest resistance level is at 1.1023.

Trading tips

Short positions can be opened from the level of 1.0984 with the target at 1.0750 and stop-loss at 1.1023.

 

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Brent: general analysis

Current trend

The price of Brent crude oil remains under pressure as gasoline inventories grew to a record high. In particular, the US Energy Information Administration reported a rise in gasoline stocks by 0.9 million barrels to 241 million barrels in the week ended 15 July that is 25% increase compared to the previous year. The same situation can be seen in Europe where gasoline stocks were up by 12%.
Moreover, strengthening in the US Dollar and a sluggish pace of the world economic growth have a negative impact on oil prices dynamics.

Support and resistance

RSI is growing suggesting the possibility of a correction towards the level of 46.50 from which a fall in the price should be expected.
The nearest support level is at 45.80.
The nearest resistance level is at 46.50.

Trading tips

Short positions can be opened from the level of 46.50 with the target at 45.00 and stop-loss at 47.00.

 

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USD/JPY: general analysis

Current trend

Despite strong macroeconomic statistics that were released today in Japan, the Yen remains under pressure amid expectations of a cut in interest rates at the upcoming Bank of Japan meeting, due 29 July. Moreover, it should also be noted that other major central banks also consider further easing of monetary policy to overcome negative effects of Britain’s exit from the EU. Thus, the US Dollar is seen as a more attractive asset in the current situation.

Support and resistance

Bollinger Bands on the 4-hour chart is directed horizontally while the price range is showing no changes. The instrument fell below the support level of 106.27. MACD histogram is in the positive zone, but its volumes are falling. The indicator is giving a sell signal. Stochastic reached the border of the overbought zone and turned down.
The indicators recommend short positions.
Support levels: 105.98, 105.67, 105.43, 105.04.
Resistance levels: 106.27, 106.50, 106.70, 107.16, 107.45.

Trading tips

Short positions can be opened from the current levels with the target at 105.43 and stop-loss at 106.70. Validity – 1-2 days.
Long positions can be opened from the level of 106.50 with the target at 107.00 and stop-loss at 106.15. Validity – 1-2 days.

 

[LiteForexNews]

USD/CAD: general review

Current trend

The pair continues growing amid falling oil prices that pressure the Canadian Dollar. In addition, the pair is supported by strengthening in the US Dollar due to an increased probability of monetary policy tightening by the Fed before the end of the year.
Tomorrow extra attention needs to be paid to the Fed Interest Rate Decision and its Monetary Policy Statement. According to forecasts, the rate will remain unchanged while commentaries by the regulator might cause high volatility on the market.

Support and resistance

The pair is testing a strong resistance at 1.3223.
On the 4-hour chart, Bollinger Bands is directed up while the price range is widening. MACD histogram is in the positive zone and its volumes are growing. Stochastic is falling as it has left the overbought zone.
The indicators recommend long positions.
Support levels: 1.3182, 1.3140, 1.3099, 1.3065, 1.3021.
Resistance levels: 1.3223, 1.3240, 1.3259.

Trading tips

Long positions can be opened from the level of 1.3230 with the target at 1.3260 and stop-loss at 1.3205. Validity – 1-2 days.
Short positions can be opened from the level of 1.3200 with the target at 1.3140 and stop-loss at 1.3235. Validity – 1-2 days.

 

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GBP/USD: review and forecast

Current trend

The pair continues trading in a narrow sideways channel near the level of 1.3100 amid lack of important macroeconomic news form the UK and prior to the Fed Interest Rate Decision that is due today. According to forecasts, the rate will remain unchanged.
At the same time, the majority of market participants expect a rate cut in the UK in the nearest future while the probability of monetary policy tightening in the US before the end of the year significantly increased, which is pressuring the pair.

Support and resistance

In the medium-term, the price is expected to fall to the level of 1.3000, where it will reverse and return to the level of 1.3250.
On the 4-hour chart, the price is trading near the lower MA of Bollinger Bands while bands are narrowing.
Support levels: 1.3050, 1.3000, 1.2860.
Resistance levels: 1.3150, 1.3250, 1.3310, 1.3400, 1.3480.

Trading tips

Pending buy order can be placed at the level of 1.3000 with the target at 1.3250 and stop-loss at 1.2900.
Short positions can be opened from the level of 1.2940 with the target at 1.2860 and stop-loss at 1.3000.

 

[LiteForexNews]

USD/JPY: review and forecast

Current trend

Yesterday the pair showed a volatile trade amid the publication of important news.
The pair was significantly supported by information of a possible expansion in the stimulus program in Japan that could amount to $265 billion. Later in the day, however, the Dollar was pressured by the Fed decision to leave its interest rate unchanged at 0.5%.
Today attention needs to be paid to data on Initial Jobless Claims in the US. Better-than-forecast figure could provide additional support to the pair. Extra attention needs to be paid to tomorrow’s monetary policy decision by the Bank of Japan.

Support and resistance

The pair bounced off the border of the descending channel and at present consolidated below the psychologically important level of 105.00. A breakdown of 50% Fibonacci correction could accelerate pair’s fall.
The RSI is breaking down the 50-point mark suggesting the fall could continue.
Support levels: 104.50, 103.20, 102.40.
Resistance levels: 105.30, 106.00, 106.50, 107.50.

Trading tips

Long positions can be opened after the breakout of the level of 105.40 with targets at 106.00, 106.50.
Short positions can be opened from the level of 104.40 with targets at 103.80, 103.20.

 

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EUR/USD: general analysis

Current trend

Last Friday, the EUR/USD pair grew amid statistics on the US GDP. Preliminary data showed that the American economy grew 1.2 percent in the second quarter while economists projected a 2.6 percent rise.
The pair was also supported by data on inflation in the eurozone. The Consumer Price Index grew 0.2 percent in July after a 0.1 percent gain in the previous month.
Today market participants will be following data on the Markit US Manufacturing PMI which is released at 3:45 pm (GMT+2).

Support and resistance

Bollinger Bands on the 4-hour chart is directed up. The price broke out the upper border of the range that indicates the possibility of a downward correction towards the middle MA. MACD histogram is in the positive zone, its volumes are growing.
Support levels: 1.1148, 1.1115, 1.1087, 1.1010.
Resistance levels: 1.1196, 1.1276, 1.1321, 1.1365.

Trading tips

Long positions can be opened after the price breaks out and consolidates above the level of 1.1196 with targets at 1.1276, 1.1321, 1.1365 and stop-loss at 1.1166.
Short positions can be opened after the price breaks down and consolidates below the level of 1.1087 with targets at 1.1050, 1.1010 and stop-loss at 1.1115.

 

[LiteForexNews]

AUD/USD: general analysis

Current trend

Today the Reserve bank of Australia announced its decision on interest rates. In line with expectations, interest rates were cut from 1.75% to 1.50% that had a strong negative impact on the AUD/USD pair.
This afternoon attention needs to be paid to a report on US personal income and spending in June. A growth in both indicators might add to pressure on the pair.

Support and resistance

Bollinger Bands on the daily chart is directed up while the price range is narrowing. MACD histogram is in the positive zone, but its volumes are falling. Stochastic has left the oversold zone.
The indicators recommend waiting for clearer trading signals.
Support levels: 0.7525, 0.7510, 0.7491, 0.7481, 0.7467, 0.7454, 0.7442.
Resistance levels: 0.7546, 0.7554, 0.7566, 0.7579, 0.7589, 0.7601.

Trading tips

Long positions can be opened from the current level with the target at 0.7650 and stop-loss at 0.7505. Validity – 1 day.
Short positions can be opened from the level of 0.7505 with targets at 0.7480, 0.7440 and stop-loss at 0.7525. Validity – 1-2 day.

 

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Brent: general analysis

Current trend

The price of Brent crude oil grew slightly after the American petroleum Institute (API) reported a drawdown in US crude oil inventories. Today attention needs to be paid to data, released by the Energy Information Administration. The oil reserves in US storages are expected to be down by more than 1.8 million barrels that might provide support for the price. Dynamics in the instrument, however, is likely to remain downward as long as the global oil market remains oversupplied.

Support and resistance

On the 4-hour chart, the instrument is trading in the lower part of Bollinger Bands. The indicator is directed down, the price range is widening. MACD histogram is in the negative zone. Stochastic has turned up at the border of the oversold zone.
The indicators recommend waiting for clearer trading signals.
Support levels: 42.00, 41.72, 41.51, 41.18, 40.97.
Resistance levels: 42.41, 42.84, 43.08, 43.33, 43.61, 43.77.

Trading tips

Long positions can be opened from the level of 42.40 with the target at 43.08 and stop-loss at 42.00. Validity – 1-2 days.
Short positions can be opened from the level of 41.70 with targets at 41.18, 41.00 and stop-loss at 42.00. Validity – 1-2 days.

 

[LiteForexNews]

GBP/USD: general analysis

Current trend

After the Bank of England decided its cut interest rates to 0.25%, the GBP/USD pair lost more than 200 points. Having reached its low in the region of 1.3111, the price corrected up. The instrument gained moderate support when data on US Initial Jobless Claims showed a 3 000 increase to 269 000 for the week ended July 30.
On Friday market participants will turn their attention to statistics for July on US Nonfarm Payrolls and Unemployment Rate. Economists project 180 000 new jobs were created last month that is substantially below
the previous reading of 287 000. The Unemployment Rate, at the same time, is expected to be down from 4.9% to 4.8%.

Support and resistance

Bollinger Bands on the 4-hour chart is directed down, but the price was falling below the lower band that suggests the possibility of an upward correction towards the middle MA and the level of 1.3272. MACD histogram is in the positive zone, but its volumes are falling. The indicator is giving a sell signal.
Support levels: 1.3111, 1.3065, 1.3007.
Resistance levels: 1.3190, 1.3272, 1.3374.

Trading tips

Short positions can be opened below the level of 1.3111 with targets at 1.3065 and 1.3007.
Long positions can be opened above the level of 1.3272 with the target at 1.3374.

 

[LiteForexNews]

AUD/USD: review and forecast

Current trend

Today the pair continued growing and reached the level of 0.7665 amid commentaries from the Reserve Bank of Australia on its monetary policy. In its statement, the regulator noted that the pace of growth of the world economy remain below the average while inflation will stay below the targeted 2%-3%. Nonetheless, the regulator did not revise its economy growth forecast, which supported the AUD.
Today attention should be paid to data on the Nonfarm Payrolls in the US. According to forecasts, the figure will come out at 180 thousands. In case the actual data exceeds forecasts, the US Dollar might receive a significant support.

Support and resistance

The pair continues moving along the ascending channel, trading near a strong resistance level of 0.7675.
Technical indicators suggest a growth continuation. Bollinger bands are directed up. Stochastic is in the overbought zone and continues growing.
Support levels: 0.7620, 0.7550, 0.7500.
Resistance levels: 0.7675, 0.7720, 0.7765, 0.7800.

Trading tips

Long positions can be opened after the breakout of the level of 0.7680 with targets at 0.7720, 0.7760 and stop-loss at 0.7650. *
Short positions can be opened from the level of 0.7620 with targets at 0.7550, 0.7500 and stop-loss at 0.7650.

 

[LiteForexNews]

EUR/USD: general analysis

Current trend
Last week, the US Dollar gained strong support from the ADP employment report and Friday's non-farm payrolls report. At the same time, it should be noted that US trade deficit widened to $44.50 billion that is considered as a negative factor for the American currency.
Favorable data on Germany’s industrial production was released in this morning. In June industrial output grew 0.5% and 0.8% in monthly and annual terms respectively.
On Tuesday dynamics in the pair might be influenced by data on Germany’s trade balance. A strong growth in the country’s exports and favorable data on trade surplus could support the European currency.

Support and resistance
On the 4-hour chart, the pair is trading between the middle and lower lines of Bollinger Bands. MACD histogram is in the negative zone, its volumes are gradually growing. Stochastic is moving up.
Support levels: 1.1070, 1.1040, 1.1015, 1.0990, 1.0965, 1.0950.
Resistance levels: 1.1105, 1.1125, 1.1160, 1.1185, 1.1200, 1.1235, 1.1250.

Trading tips
Short positions can be opened from the level of 1.1060 with the target at 1.1015 and stop-loss at 1.1080.
Long positions can be opened from the level of 1.1110 with the target at 1.1160 and stop-loss at 1.1090.
Validity – 1-3 days.

 

[LiteForexNews]

AUD/USD: in ascending trend

Current trend

The pair continues moving along a narrow ascending channel that was formed in the end of June.
The pair was supported by the RBA decision to keep its key interest rate unchanged which increased demand for the Australian currency amid growing appetite for risk assets. At the same time, the US Dollar was pressure by poor statistics on country’s GDP for the second quarter of the year that substantially lowered the probability of an interest rate hike before the end of the year.
This week, extra attention needs to be paid to data on Home Loans from Australia and Retail Sales and the Producer Price Index in the US.

Support and resistance

In the short-term, there is a chance of a downward correction towards the lower border of the channel at the level of 0.7635 that coincides with the middle MA of Bollinger Bands on the 4-hour chart, from where the growth will resume. At the same time, if the RBA cuts the interest rate, the price could break down the lower border of the channel and fall to the level of 0.7565.

Technical indicators suggest a growth continuation. Bollinger bands are directed up. MACD histogram is in the positive zone and its volumes are growing.

Support levels: 0.7635, 0.7600, 0.7565, 0.7530, 0.7500, 0.7450, 0.7420, 0.7375, 0.7300, 0.7150.
Resistance levels: 0.7670, 0.7685, 0.7715, 0.7750, 0.7800, 0.7835.

Trading tips

Long positions can be opened from current levels and from the levels of 0.7635, 0.7600 with targets at 0.7750, 0.7800, 0.7835.

 

[LiteForexNews]

USD/JPY: review and forecast

Current trend

The pair continues consolidating near the level of 101.10. Yesterday, the Yen strengthened against the Dollar amid the publication of data on the Nonfarm Productivity in the US. In the second quarter of the year, the index fell by 0.5% while experts predicted a growth of 0.4%. In the first quarter, the index declined by 0.6%.
Today attention needs to be paid to the Monthly Budget Statement in the US. According to forecasts, the budget deficit will amount to $129.9 billion, which could pressure the Dollar.

Support and resistance

On the 4-hour chart, the pair continues moving along the descending channel. Trade volumes remain low.
Technical indicators do not give a clear trading signal. Bollinger bands are directed horizontally. Stochastic is in the oversold zone.
Support levels: 101.10, 100.65, 100.00.
Resistance levels: 101.70, 102.10, 102.60.

Trading tips

Long positions can be opened from the level of 101.70 with targets at 102.10, 102.60 and stop-loss at 101.50.
Short positions can be opened from the level of 101.10 with the target at 100.65 and stop-loss at 101.00.

 

[LiteForexNews]

EUR/USD: growth possibility remains

Current trend
This week, the pair recovered the losses it incurred last Friday when the US released strong data on the labour market. At present, the price corrected to the region of the middle MA of Bollinger Bands and attempts to resume its growth. Critical for Bulls seems to be the level of 1.1166 that coincides with 23.6% Fibonacci correction. Its breakout would lead to a growth continuation to the levels of 1.1200, 1.1233, and possibly 1.1270. For Bears, crucial would be the level of 1.1125 that coincides with the middle MA of Bollinger Bands, a breakdown of which would open the way towards the levels of 1.1090, 1.1058 and 1.1015.
Tomorrow attention needs to be paid to data on Retail Sales in the US. According to forecasts, the index will fall that might pressure the US Dollar.

Support and resistance
Technical indicators give contradicting signals. Bollinger bands are directed up. Stochastic lines turned down. MACD histogram is in the positive zone and its volumes are falling.
Support levels: 1.1125, 1.1090, 1.1058, 1.1015.
Resistance levels: 1.1166, 1.1200, 1.1233, 1.1270.

Trading tips
Long positions can be opened after the breakout of the level of 1.1166 with targets at 1.1200, 1.1233, 1.1270 and stop-loss at 1.1130. Validity – 2-3 days.
Short positions can be opened after the breakdown of the level of 1.1125 with targets at 1.1090, 1.1058 and stop-loss at 1.1155. Validity – 2-3 days.

 

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XAU/USD: general analysis

Current trend

Demand for gold continues growing and has reached 2,335 tons in the first half of 2016. In April-June period, total demand increased by 15 percent compared to the 2015 second quarter. Investors are shifting their assets to gold to reduce the risk amid the lack of stability in global markets.
It should also be noted that central banks’ bond-buying programmes and strong demand for bonds among investors accelerate a fall in global bond yields. The current situation in stock markets raises concern as well, and some experts believe that stocks might soon head to a fall.

Support and resistance

RSI is near the oversold zone, suggesting the possibility of a growth in the pair.
The nearest support level is at 1330.29.
The nearest resistance level is at 1342.43.

Trading tips

Long positions can be opened from the level of 1334.45 with the target at 1352.00 and stop-loss at 1329.00.