Forex Analysis by LiteForex

[Mikhail Kurakin]

LiteForex analitics. EUR/USD: euro is growing moderately

Current trend

Yesterday, EUR rose slightly against USD and renewed its highs since November 9. The investors are focused on Brexit negotiations.

On Wednesday, traders seriously hoped that the deal would be concluded and ratified, and EU Trade Commissioner Cecilia Malmstrom expressed confidence that the draft treaty would be supported by all EU countries. However, on Thursday, four ministers immediately left the British cabinet to protest the terms of the agreement. It makes the ratification of the treaty by the British Parliament doubtful, as the Conservative Party doesn’t have a majority.

On Friday, October data on EU inflation is expected. According to forecasts, Core Consumer Price Index will remain at 1.1%, and CPI will stay at 2.2%. In addition, market participants are waiting for the speech of the ECB President Mario Draghi, who can provide information on the future plans of the regulator.

Support and resistance

On the daily chart, Bollinger bands reversed horizontally. The price range is virtually unchanged but remains quite spacious for the current activity level. MACD is growing, keeping a weak buy signal (the histogram is above the signal line). Stochastic is directed upwards but is rapidly approaching its highs, which indicates the risks associated with the overbought euro in the super-short term.

At the moment, the indications of technical indicators do not contradict the further development of corrective growth.

Resistance levels: 1.1361, 1.1400, 1.1431, 1.1460, 1.1500.
Support levels: 1.1300, 1.1266, 1.1231, 1.1207.

Trading tips

Long positions can be opened after the breakout of 1.1361 with the targets at 1.1431–1.1460. Stop loss is 1.1320.
Short positions can be opened after the breakdown of the level of 1.1300 with the target at 1.1231 or 1.1207. Stop loss is 1.1340.
Implementation period: 2–3 days.

 

[Mikhail Kurakin]

LiteForex analitics. USD/JPY: technical analysis

USD/JPY, D1

On the daily chart, the pair is trading in the lower Bollinger band. The price remains above the EMA65, EMA130 and SMA200 that are directed up. The RSI is approaching its strong support region. The Composite is about to test its strong support as well.

USD/JPY, H4

On the 4-hour chart, the pair is trading on the lower line of the Bollinger Bands. The price remains below its moving averages that start turning down. The RSI is trying to leave the oversold zone. The Composite begins forming a Bullish divergence with the price.

Key levels

Support levels: 112.60 (local lows), 111.90 (local lows), 111.40 (October lows).
Resistance levels: 112.90 (local highs), 113.40 (local highs), 113.60 (local highs).

Trading tips

There is a chance of an upward correction, while a breakdown of local lows near 112.60 would allow the fall to continue.
Long positions can be opened from the level of 113.00 with targets at 113.40, 113.60 and stop-loss at 112.75. Validity – 3-5 days.
Short positions can be opened from the level of 112.60 with targets at 111.90, 111.40 and stop-loss at 112.90. Validity – 3-5 days.

 

[Mikhail Kurakin]

LiteForex analitics. XAU/USD: the price can decrease

Current trend

After a significant decline from the beginning of April to mid-August, the gold price is trading within an upward correction. During the autumn months, it has recovered by more than 80 points. However, in the long term, the trend stays downwards. At the end of October, the instrument reached the July maximum at 1244.00, failed to consolidate on it and began to decline. The decrease developed to the lower border of the upward correctional channel, after which the rate began to grow again.

Now the precious metal is trading at the level of 1225.00. The main strengthening catalyst is the change in trading sentiment: USD index tends to fall, reflecting a decrease in demand for currency.
This week, special attention should be paid to data on the labor market and major US indices.

Support and resistance

Technically, the pair is trading within a medium-term upward trend. In the medium term, the price may reverse into a sideways consolidation movement. In the long term, it is better to increase the volumes of short positions and wait for a decline to recent local lows, and then for a fall to a minimum of the end of 2016 at the level of 1122.00.

On the daily chart, technical indicators give an ambiguous signal: the volume of long MACD positions is decreasing but the signal line is at the zero mark, and Bollinger bands are lined up horizontally.

Resistance levels: 1225.00, 1237.00, 1244.00, 1255.50, 1266.00.
Support levels: 1214.00, 1208.30, 1196.00, 1183.40, 1180.00, 1160.00.

Trading tips

It is relevant to increase the volumes of short positions from the current level and open pending orders from the levels of 1244.00, 1255.50 with the targets at 1208.30, 1180.00 and stop loss 1269.00.

 

[Mikhail Kurakin]

LiteForex analitics. EUR/USD: the Euro returned to declining

Current trend

EUR showed a decline against USD on Tuesday, retreating from updated local highs of November 7.

In the absence of significant economic releases, investors are focused on the UK, where Prime Minister Theresa May is trying to conduct a draft agreement with the EU through parliament. May's appeal for support to large British businesses was generally positively appreciated by the market, but the position of the Prime Minister remains difficult. The Conservative Party does not have a majority in Parliament, and the deputies from the allied Democratic Unionist Party of Northern Ireland expressed dissatisfaction with the terms of the deal and do not want to support it. In the EU, there are also people dissatisfied with the agreement: Spanish Prime Minister Pedro Sanchez said that he insists on direct negotiations over Gibraltar, a territory disputed by Madrid.

Support and resistance

Bollinger Bands in D1 chart demonstrate flat dynamics. The price range is slightly narrowed from above, being spacious enough for the current activity level in the market. MACD indicator is trying to reverse into the descending plane, keeping the buy signal (located above the signal line). Stochastic has reversed downwards near its maximum levels, indicating a sufficient potential for further development of the downtrend in the short and/or ultra-short term.

Sales could be considered in the nearest future.

Resistance levels: 1.1400, 1.1431, 1.1460, 1.1500.
Support levels: 1.1357, 1.1334, 1.1300, 1.1266.

Trading tips

To open long positions, one can rely on the rebound from the level of 1.1357 with the subsequent breakout of 1.1400. Take profit — 1.1460 or 1.1500. Stop loss — 1.1370. Implementation period: 2-3 days.

The breakdown of 1.1357 may serve as a signal to continue sales with the target at 1.1300. Stop loss — 1.1380 or 1.1390. Implementation period: 1-2 days.

 

[Mikhail Kurakin]

LiteForex analitics. GBP/USD: the instrument trades ambiguously

Current trend

Yesterday, the GBP/USD pair fell slightly, continuing the development of the “bearish” impulse formed the day before.

British investors are focused on Brexit. Prime Minister Theresa May met with European Commission President Jean-Claude Juncker to discuss preparations for the EU Brexit summit on Sunday. At the summit, the parties will work out the dissatisfaction of a part of the EU members with significant preferences to British fishing companies, as well as Spain’s complaints about Gibraltar.

GBP is under pressure of October UK government borrowing data, which increased significantly by 7.96B pounds.

However, the speech of the head of the Bank of England Mark Carney, who supported May’s Brexit proposals, affected GBP positively. Carney stressed the importance of a long transition period because, without it, the British economy could face significant difficulties.

Support and resistance

On the daily chart, Bollinger bands are falling. The price range is actively widening from below, letting the “bears” renew local lows. MACD is falling, keeping a moderate sell signal (the histogram is below the signal line). Stochastic is directed downwards but is close to its lows, which reflects that GBP can become oversold soon.

It is better to keep current short positions until the situation is clarified.

Resistance levels: 1.2826, 1.2882, 1.2920, 1.2950.
Support levels: 1.2763, 1.2722, 1.2693.

Trading tips

Long positions can be opened after the rebound from the level of 1.2763 and the breakout of the level of 1.2826 with the targets at 1.2920–1.2950. Stop loss is 1.2790–1.2780. Implementation period: 2–3 days.

Short positions can be opened after the breakdown of the level of 1.2763 with the targets at 1.2693–1.2675. Stop loss is 1.2800. Implementation period: 1–2 days.

 

[Mikhail Kurakin]

LiteForex analitics. USD/CAD: technical analysis

USD/CAD, D1

On the daily chart, the pair is trading in the upper Bollinger band. The price remains above its moving averages that are directed up. The RSI is testing from above its longer MA. The Composite is falling, having formed a Bearish divergence with the price.

USD/CAD, H4

On the 4-hour chart, the pair is trading in the lower Bollinger band. The price remains above the EMA65, EMA130 and SMA200 that are directed up. The RSI is about to test from below its longer MA. The Composite is testing its longer MA as well.

Key levels

Support levels: 1.3170 (local lows), 1.3085 (local lows), 1.3050 (local lows).
Resistance levels: 1.3230 (local highs), 1.3315 (local highs), 1.3385 (June highs).

Trading tips

The price is testing its medium-term ascending trendline. Its breakdown would lead to a fall continuation.
Short positions can be opened from the level of 1.3170 with targets at 1.3085, 1.3050 and stop-loss at 1.3220. Validity – 3-5 days.
Long positions can be opened from the level of 1.3230 with targets at 1.3315, 1.3385 and stop-loss at 1.3195. Validity – 3-5 days.

 

[Mikhail Kurakin]

LiteForex analitics. XAU/USD: gold is trading in both directions

Current trend

Gold prices showed a decline last Friday, departing from local highs updated during the last week. The reason for the emergence of "bearish" dynamics was the growth of the US currency, as well as significantly increased investor interest in risk amid a correction in European stock markets.

American investors are focused on preparations for the meeting of US President Donald Trump and Chinese President Xi Jinping at the G20 summit in Argentina. During the month, investors have been receiving a lot of contradictory information about this. The day before, Trump encouraged investors again, saying that China is ready to make a deal. Vice Minister of Commerce of PRC Wang Shouwen, in turn, noted that the American and Chinese trade representatives are in close contact. At the moment, the market is set to a positive outcome of the negotiations.

Support and resistance

Bollinger Bands in D1 chart demonstrate a gradual decrease. The price range is narrowing, reflecting ambiguous nature of trading in recent weeks. MACD is growing, keeping a weak buy signal (located above the signal line). Stochastic, in contrast, maintains a rather active “bearish” trend, signaling in favor of the development of a downward correction of the instrument.

The indicators remain contradictory, so it is necessary to wait for clarification of trade signals.

Resistance levels: 1226.11, 1229.84, 1233.08, 1237.16.
Support levels: 1220.12, 1216.62, 1211.80, 1208.14.

Trading tips

To open long positions, one can rely on the breakout of 1226.11. Take profit — 1233.08 or 1237.16. Stop loss — 1222.00.

A breakdown of 1220.12 may become a signal for returning to sales with target at 1211.80 or 1208.14. Stop loss — 1224.00.

Implementation period: 2-3 days.

 

[Mikhail Kurakin]

LiteForex analitics. GBP/USD: the pound remains under pressure

Current trend

Yesterday, the GBP/USD pair continued the development of the “bearish” impulse formed at the end of last week.

The endorsement of the text of the Brexit agreement by the EU members at the last summit reassured the market. However, now the approval of the treaty by the British Parliament is necessary, where a serious opposition present even among the Conservative Party. The new Brexit secretary Stephen Barclay noted that the support for the current deal in the House of Commons is insufficient. In his opinion, it is necessary to convince the deputies that withdrawing from the EU without a deal is not in the interests of voters. At the moment, the Conservative Party controls 315 seats in the House of Commons out of 650, not having a majority. In addition, the Democratic Unionist Party of Northern Ireland (DUP), which was in a coalition with the Conservatives earlier, is going to oppose the deal. Voting on the transaction should take place in the first half of December.

Support and resistance

On the daily chart, Bollinger bands moderately fell. The price range actively narrows, reflecting the ambiguous trade mood in recent weeks. MACD grow, keeping a weak buy signal (the histogram is above the signal line). Stochastic reversed downwards again after a short growth.

Current indicators’ readings are ambiguous. However, an upward correctional impulse has not formed.

Resistance levels: 1.2826, 1.2882, 1.2925, 1.2950, ​​1.3000.
Support levels: 1.2793, 1.2763, 1.2722, 1.2693.

Trading tips

Long positions can be opened after the breakout of 1.2882 with the target at 1.3000. Stop loss is 1.2840. Implementation period: 2–3 days.
Short positions can be opened after the breakdown of 1.2793 with the target at 1.2722 or 1.2693. Stop loss is 1.2835. Implementation period: 1–2 days.

 

[Mikhail Kurakin]

LiteForex analitics. XAU/USD: gold prices are going down

Current trend

Gold prices declined on Tuesday, updating local lows of November 15.

Investors are still focused on the US-Chinese trade conflict. In anticipation of the G20 summit in Buenos Aires starting on Friday, US President Donald Trump gave an interview to The Wall Street Journal; he said he is ready to impose increased tariffs on remaining Chinese imports totaling USD 267 billion if negotiations with Xi Jinping fail. The rate may be 10% or 25% but is yet to be confirmed. These comments may be an element of pressure to persuade the PRC to sign a treaty with the US. Trump also spoke about the Brexit deal, the text of which was approved by EU representatives on Sunday. According to Trump, the deal is excellent for the EU; however, accepting it, the UK will not be able to conduct bilateral trade with the US.

Support and resistance

Bollinger Bands in D1 chart demonstrate flat dynamics. The price range consolidated, but remains rather spacious for the current level of activity in the market. MACD is going down keeping a sell signal (located under the signal line). Besides, the indicator is trying to consolidate below the zero level. Stochastic keeps downward direction but is approaching minimum levels, which reflects the oversold instrument in the ultra-short term.

Existing short positions should be kept until the situation clears up.

Resistance levels: 1216.62, 1220.12, 1226.11, 1229.84.
Support levels: 1211.80, 1208.14, 1200.00, 1196.10.

Trading tips

To open long positions, one can rely on the breakout of 1216.62. Take profit — 1226.11 or 1229.84. Stop loss — 1212.00.
The rebound from 1216.62 with the subsequent breakdown of 1211.80 can become a signal to return to sales with target at 1205.00 or 1200.00. Stop loss — 1216.62.

Implementation period: 2-3 days.

 

[Mikhail Kurakin]

LiteForex analitics. NZD/USD: general analysis

Current trend

Yesterday the pair strengthened by 65 points after the speech of Fed Chairman Jerome Powell.

In general, the speech was neutral. USD was under pressure due to the mentioned necessity of balancing the current monetary policy in order to avoid "overheating" of the economy. Nevertheless, the Fed chief continues to insist on a gradual increase in the key rate, since US macroeconomic indicators of the labor market and inflation corresponded with a policy of tightening. Meanwhile, the New Zealand regulator has published negative data on the business optimism index. According to the report, business investment in the country is at a low level, which is a negative signal when assessing the state of the economy as a whole.

Today at 15:30 (GMT+2), the US labor market and inflation data will be published. The release of the Fed’s Meeting Minutes is due at 21:00 (GMT+2). Both news releases can create strong market volatility. Most investors expect USD to grow.

Support and resistance

On the 4-hour chart, the instrument was corrected to the upper border of Bollinger bands, which is the key resistance level. The indicator is directed sideways, and the price range has expanded significantly, which is the basis for further growth. MACD histogram is in the positive zone, its volumes continue to grow, keeping a buy signal. Stochastic reversed downwards at the border of the overbought area.

Resistance levels: 0.6855, 0.6907, 0.6956, 0.7022.
Support levels: 0.6822, 0.6790, 0.6737, 0.6701, 0.6663, 0.6629.

Trading tips

Short positions can be opened from the current level with the target at 0.6765 and stop loss 0.6900.
Long positions can be opened above the level of 0.6905 with the target at 0.6960 and stop loss 0.6885.
Implementation period: 1–2 days.

 

[Mikhail Kurakin]

LiteForex analitics. EUR/USD: general review

Current trend

EUR strengthened against USD on Thursday amid a refutation regarding the introduction of US tariffs on cars from the EU before Christmas made by the European Commission.

The single currency was also supported by positive labor market statistics from Germany. Macroeconomic data from the US was mixed and did not support the USD. Private spending increased to 0.6% in October from 0.2% a month earlier. Personal income also showed a positive trend and amounted to 0.5% in October from 0.2% a month earlier. The FOMC protocol published last night confirmed the Fed’s intention to raise the key rate in December. At the same time, the regulator believes that in the future it is necessary to carefully approach the issue of tightening monetary policy after the December round of rate hikes. Investors reacted to these statements by selling the US currency.

Today, the publication of the consumer price index in the Eurozone (12:00 GMT+3) may influence the pair; high volatility is expected in the market.

Support and resistance

On the H4 chart, there is an upward correction, the instrument is traded near the upper border of Bollinger Bands, the price range is expanded, which indicates a possible continuation of the upward movement. MACD histogram is in the positive area, gradually increasing volumes, the signal line crosses the zero mark and the body of the histogram from the bottom up, which is a signal to open long positions.

Support levels: 1.1362, 1.1348, 1.1330, 1.1300, 1.1265.
Resistance levels: 1.1400, 1.1415, 1.1433, 1.1460, 1.1491.

Trading tips

Long position may be opened from 1.1400 with the target at 1.1460 and stop loss at 1.1362.
Short positions may be opened from 1.1330 with the target at 1.1265 and stop loss at 1.1362.
Implementation period: 1-3 days.