Forex Analysis by LiteForex

[LiteForexNews]

EUR/USD: Euro remains under pressure

Current trend
Last Friday the pair significantly grew amid the publication of weak data on the US labour market, but closed near its opening levels on the day. The US Nonfarm Payrolls for April came out at 160 thousands, which was 40 thousand worse than expectations of economists.

At the same time, the Dollar was supported by data on the Average Weekly Hours and Average Hourly Earnings that showed moderate growth. In addition, the Consumer Credit Change in March increased from 14.14 to 29.67 billion Dollars that was substantially better than the forecasts.

Support and resistance
Bollinger Bands on the daily chart is moving horizontally while the price range remains unchanged. MACD is falling and giving a moderate sell signal. Stochastic is in the oversold zone and continues falling.

The indicators recommend waiting for clearer trading signals.

Support levels: 1.1379 (local low), 1.1339, 1.1321, 1.1300 (28 April low), 1.1269, 1.1233, 1.1200 (29 March low), 1.1143.
Resistance levels: 1.1400 (local high), 1.1437, 1.1464, 1.1500 (4 May high), 1.1541, 1.1577, 1.1615 (3 May high).

Trading tips
Long positions can be opened after the price rebound from the level of 1.1400 with targets at 1.1500, 1.1541 and stop-loss at 1.1350. Validity – 2-3 days.
Short positions can be opened after the breakdown of the level of 1.1379 with targets at 1.1300, 1.1269 and stop-loss at 1.1437. Validity – 2-3 days.

 

[LiteForexNews]

USD/CAD: general review

Current trend
Since the middle of last week, the pair was growing amid publications of poor macroeconomic statistics in Canada. The Trade Balance deficit increased from 2.47 to 3.41 billion Canadian Dollars, while the Net Employment Change declined by 2.1 thousands, which was substantially worse than forecasts.

Today attention needs to be paid to data on the JOLTS Jobs Opening in the US. The index is expected to fall from 5.445 to 5.412 thousands that might pressure the pair.

Support and resistance
On the 4-hour chart, the pair is trading in the upper Bollinger band, while bands are directed up and the price range is expanding. MACD histogram is in the positive zone and its volumes are stable. Stochastic is trying to turn up.

The indicators recommend long positions.

Support levels: 1.2937, 1.2906, 1.2841, 1.2794, 1.2698, 1.2640, 1.2574, 1.2538, 1.2492.
Resistance levels: 1.2967, 1.3018, 1.3056, 1.3084, 1.3125.

Trading tips
Long positions can be opened from current prices with the target at 1.3018 and stop-loss at 1.2937. Validity – 1-2 days.

Short positions can be opened after the price rebound from the level of 1.3018 with targets at 1.2906 and stop-loss at 1.3056. Validity – 1-2 days.

 

[LiteForexNews]

EUR/USD: technical analysis

EUR/USD, D1

On the daily chart, the pair is trading on the middle MA of Bollinger Bands. The price remains above its moving averages that are directed up. The RSI is trying to turn up in the Bullish zone above the 50 mark. The Composite is trying to turn up as well.

EUR/USD, H4

On the 4-hour chart, the pair is trying to break out the middle MA of Bollinger Bands. The price remains on the level with its moving averages that are directed horizontally. The RSI is growing having formed a Bullish divergence with the price. The Composite developed a larger upward move suggesting limited growth potential in the pair.

Key levels

Support levels: 1.1357 (local lows), 1.1219 (end of April lows), 1.1139 (end of March lows).

Resistance levels: 1.1466 (psychologically important level), 1.1532 (February 2015 lows), 1.1602 (local highs).

Trading tips

Short positions can be opened from the level of 1.1350 with the target at 1.1234 and stop-loss at 1.1385. Validity – 2-3 days.

Long positions can be opened from the level of 1.1476 with targets at 1.1522, 1.1582 and stop-loss at 1.1450. Validity – 2-3 days.

 

[LiteForexNews]

EUR/USD: general analysis

Current trend

Since the opening of the European trading session, the EUR/USD pair has been declining. The European currency remains under pressure, as Italy’s banking system is facing difficulties due to the increased number of bad loans. Many commercial banks need additional capital, and shares in Banco Popolare, one of Italy’s largest banks, lost 14 percent.

Weak data on the eurozone’s industrial production has had a negative impact on the Euro as well. The indicator came in at -0.8%, far below analysts’ forecast.

Support and resistance

RSI has reached the 36 level, and the pair still has potential for further fall. A correction can start from the level of 1.1364.

The nearest support level is at 1.1364.

The nearest resistance level is at 1.1449.

Trading tips

Long positions can be opened from the level of 1.1364 with the target at 1.1400 and stop-loss at 1.1345.

 

[LiteForexNews]

USD/JPY: general review

Current trend
The pair continues consolidating after a significant growth at the beginning of the week.
Data on the Tertiary Industry Index for March that was published today in Japan showed a decline of 0.7%, while experts anticipated a 0.2% fall, which slightly pressured the Yen. Today attention also needs to be paid to data on Retail Sales in the US. According to forecasts, indices will show growth that might provide additional support to the pair.

Support and resistance
On the 4-hour chart, the pair continues sideways movement along a narrow channel formed of the borders of Bollinger Bands, and is currently trading on the middle MA of the indicator. MACD histogram is in the positive zone and its volumes are falling.
Support levels: 108.90, 108.50, 108.10, 107.65, 107.00, 106.50, 105.75, 105.35.
Resistance levels: 109.35, 110.00, 110.30, 110.75, 111.00, 111.25, 111.60, 112.00.

Trading tips
Long positions can be opened from the level of 109.00 with the target at 109.35 and stop-loss at 108.90. Validity – 1-2 days.
Short positions can be opened from the level of 108.50 with the target at 108.10 and stop-loss at 108.70. Validity – 1-2 days.

 

[LiteForexNews]

USD/CAD: general review

Current trend
Since the beginning of last week, the pair is in consolidation having fallen by 50 points for the week. At the same time, yesterday the fall continued amid the publication of weak data in the US and due to uncertainty regarding the pace of interest rates hikes in the US.

Today attention needs to be paid to data on Building Permits and the Core Consumer Price Index in the US. According to forecasts, the indices will grow that might support the US Dollar.

Support and resistance
On the 4-hour chart, the pair is trading on the middle MA of Bollinger Bands and the bands are directed horizontally. MACD histogram is near the zero line. Stochastic turned up as it bounced off the border of the oversold zone.
The indicators recommend waiting for clearer trading signals.
Support levels: 1.2851, 1.2825, 1.2800, 1.2780.
Resistance levels: 1.2880, 1.2906, 1.2933, 1.2961, 1.2979, 1.3001.

Trading tips
Long positions can be opened from current prices with targets at 1.2933, 1.2961 and stop-loss at 1.2851. Validity – 1-2 days.
Short positions can be opened after the price rebound from the level of 1.2880 with targets at 1.2825, 1.2800 and stop-loss at 1.2906. Validity – 1-2 days.

 

[LiteForexNews]

USD/JPY: general review

Current trend

Yesterday the pair slightly strengthened amid the publication of strong statistics in the US. The Consumer Price Index grew by 0.4% while economists predicted a growth of 0.3%. In addition, the Consumer Price Index n.s.a increased to 239.260 and Housing Starts grew to 1.172 million.

At the same time, the Yen was supported by today’s data on the Japanese GDP. In the first quarter, the index came out at 1.7%, instead of a forecasted 0.2% growth.
Today attention also needs to be paid to the FOMC Minutes in the US.

Support and resistance

On the 4-hour chart, the pair is trading near the upper MA of Bollinger Bands. MACD histogram is in the positive zone and its volumes are minimal. Stochastic is growing.

Support levels: 109.35, 108.90, 108.50, 108.10, 107.65, 107.00, 106.50, 105.75, 105.35.
Resistance levels: 109.65, 110.00, 110.30, 110.75, 111.00, 111.25, 111.60, 112.00.

Trading tips

Short positions can be opened from the level of 109.30 with targets at 109.00, 108.50 and stop-loss at 109.45. Validity – 1-3 days.

Long positons can be opened from the level of 109.65 with targets at 110.00, 110.30 and stop-loss at 109.50. Validity – 1-3 days.

 

[LiteForexNews]

AUD/JPY: pair is falling

Current trend
The pair continues falling amid a large number of macroeconomic publications in Japan and Australia.
The Yen was supported by strong data on the Japanese GDP. In the first quarter of the year, the index grew by 1.7% that substantially exceeded forecasts of economists of a 0.2% growth. At the same time, the Australian Dollar was pressured by weak data on the labour market of the country. The Employment Change increased by 10.8 thousands, which was worse than expectations of experts who predicted a 12.5 thousands growth, and worse than the previous figure of 25.7 thousands. However, the Unemployment Rate did not show an expected increase and remained unchanged.

Support and resistance
Bollinger Bands on the daily chart is turning horizontally while the price range is narrowing. MACD is growing and giving a weak buy signal. Stochastic turned sideways near the middle of its range.
The indicators recommend waiting for clearer trading signals.
Support levels: 79.20 (local low), 78.62 (16 May low), 78.16 (6 May low), 77.57 (11 February low).
Resistance levels: 79.52 (local high), 80.00 (psychologically important level), 80.34, 80.64 (11 May high), 81.00, 81.60, 82.00 (29 April high), 82.45, 83.00.

Trading tips
Long positions can be opened after the price consolidation above the level of 80.00 with targets at 81.00, 81.60 and stop-loss at 79.50. Validity – 2-3 days.
Short positions can be opened after the breakdown of the level of 78.62 with targets at 77.57, 77.00 and stop-loss at 79.20. Validity – 2-4 days.

 

[LiteForexNews]

USD/CAD: pair is growing

Current trend
The pair continues growing amid a significant strengthening in the US Dollar. The American currency was supported by the publication of April FOMC Minutes that substantially increased the probability of an interest rate hike in the US at June’s meeting of the regulator. According to the Federal Funds futures, at present the probability stands at more than 30%.
At the same time, the pair was slightly pressured amid expectations of the release of inflation data in Canada, which is due later today.

Support and resistance
Bollinger Bands on the daily chart is moving up while the price range is narrowing. MACD is growing and giving a quite strong buy signal. Stochastic is turning horizontally as it reached the overbought zone.

The indicators recommend waiting for clearer trading signals.
Support levels: 1.3037 (local low), 1.3000 (psychologically important level), 1.2962, 1.2900, 1.2844, 1.2800 (12 May low), 1.2757.
Resistance levels: 1.3100 (local high), 1.3153 (local high), 1.3218 (5 April high), 1.3300, 1.3370 (16 March high).

Trading tips
Long positions can be opened after the price consolidation above the level of 1.3100 (with the appropriate indicators signals) with targets at 1.3218, 1.3300 and stop-loss at 1.3037. Validity – 2-3 days.
Short positions can be opened after the breakdown of the level of 1.3000 with targets at 1.2900, 1.2800 and stop-loss at 1.3100. Validity – 2-3 days.

 

[LiteForexNews]

USD/JPY: general review

Current trend
Today the Yen is strengthening against the US Dollar. The pair was pressured by the publication of data on the Trade Balance in Japan. The balance surplus increased from 755 to 824 billion Yen, while experts expected it to fall to 492.8 billion.
Today attention needs to be paid to preliminary data on the Markit Manufacturing PMI in the US.

Support and resistance
On the daily chart, the pair is trading in the upper Bollinger band, while bands are directed horizontally and the price range is narrowing. MACD is growing and forming a weak buy signal. Stochastic left the overbought zone.
The indicators recommend waiting for clearer trading signals.
Support levels: 109.16, 108.67, 107.87, 106.22, 105.72.
Resistance levels: 110.14, 110.63, 111.61, 112.28, 113.71.

Trading tips
Short positions can be opened from current prices with the target at 108.67 and stop-loss at 110.14. Validity – 1-2 days.
Long positions can be opened after the price rebound from the level of 108.67 with targets at 110.14, 111.61 and stop-loss at 107.87. Validity – 2-4 days.

 

[LiteForexNews]

Brent: general review

Current trend
The price of Brent crude oil tested the level of 49.00 several times but could not consolidate above it yet. Since the end of last week, the price has been trading in a narrow range of 47.55-49.34 while market volatility remains low.
Tomorrow attention needs to be paid to data on the EIA Crude Oil Stocks change in the US.

Support and resistance
On the 4-hour chart, Bollinger Bands are directed horizontally. MACD histogram is in the negative zone and its volumes are growing, which suggests the downward movement is forming.
Support levels: 47.55, 46.77, 45.90.
Resistance levels: 48.50, 49.34, 50.00.

Trading tips
Short positions can be opened after the breakdown and consolidation below the level of 47.55 with targets at 46.77, 45.90 and stop-loss at 48.00.
Long positions can be opened after the price consolidation above the level of 48.50 with targets at 49.34, 50.00 and stop-loss at 48.00.

 

[LiteForexNews]

NZD/USD: pair is growing

Current trend
Today the pair is growing amid the publication of strong data in New Zealand. In April, Exports from the country grew from 4.2 billion to 4.3 billion New Zealand Dollars that was slightly better than forecasts of economists. In addition, the Trade Balance surplus increased to 292 million NZD, while exports expected the surplus to decline to 60 million NZD. At the same time, Imports slightly fell, from 4.09 billion to 4.01 billion NZD.

The pair, however, is still pressured by the strengthening US Dollar, which is supported by the expectations of monetary policy tightening in the US in the nearest future.

Support and resistance
Bollinger Bands on the daily chart is moving down while the price range is narrowing. MACD is trying to turn up having formed a buy signal. Stochastic turned up as well.
Support levels: 0.6746 (local low), 0.6715, 0.6700 (local low), 0.6667 (28 March low).
Resistance levels: 0.6780 (local high), 0.6800 (23 May high), 0.6823, 0.6847 (12 May high), 0.6873, 0.6900 (5 May high), 0.6934, 0.6965.

Trading tips
Long positions can be opened after the price consolidation above the level of 0.6800 (with the appropriate indicators signals) with targets at 0.6873, 0.6900 and stop-loss at 0.6750. Validity – 2-3 days.
Short positions can be opened after the price rebound from the level of 0.6800 with the target at 0.6700 and stop-loss at 0.6830. Validity – 2-3 days.

 

[LiteForexNews]

USD/CHF: general review

Current trend
Yesterday the pair fell amid the publication of strong macroeconomic statistics in Switzerland, where the UBS Consumption Indicator grew from 1.40 to 1.47 points. In addition, the Dollar was pressured by weak data on the Markit Services PMI in the US. In May, the index fell from 52.8 to 51.2 points.
Today attention needs to be paid to data on Durable Goods Orders and Initial Jobless Claims in the US. Forecasts realisation could pressure the US Dollar.

Support and resistance
On the 4-hour chart, the price bounced off the middle MA of Bollinger Bands and formed a downward trend. MACD histogram is in the positive zone and its volumes are falling. Stochastic is falling, after it turned down near the overbought zone.
The indicators recommend short positions.

Support levels: 0.9896, 0.9886, 0.9879, 0.9871, 0.9862.
Resistance levels: 0.9906, 0.9910, 0.9915, 0.9921, 0.9924, 0.9929, 0.9934.

Trading tips
Short positions can be opened from current prices with the target at 0.9886 and stop-loss at 0.9910. Validity – 1-2 days.
Long positions can be opened from the level of 0.9910 with the target at 0.9934 and stop-loss at 0.9896. Validity – 1-2 days.

 

[LiteForexNews]

GBP/USD: review and forecast

Current trend
The pair continues falling amid weakening in the GBP. The Pound was pressured by poor data on the GDP for the first quarter of the year in the UK. On a year-to-year basis, the index came out at 2.0%, which was 0.1% worse than forecasts. In addition, the Total Business Investment in the country in the previous quarter declined by 0.5%.

Today attention needs to be paid to data from the US, where the first quarter of the year GDP is due. Experts predict growth in the index to 0.9%.

Support and resistance
The pair continues trading in the ascending channel. In case of a price consolidation below the level of 1.4610, the fall is likely to continue towards the lower border of the channel.

Support levels: 1.4610, 1.4540, 1.4485. *
Resistance levels: 1.4680, 1.4740, 1.4780.

Trading tips
Short positions can be opened after the price consolidation below the level of 1.4610 with targets at 1.4540, 1.4490 and stop-loss at 1.4640.
Long positions can be opened above the level of 1.4680 with the target at 1.4740 and stop-loss at 1.4650.

 

[LiteForexNews]

AUD/USD: general review

Current trend
Today the pair significantly grew amid a publication of strong macroeconomic statistics in Australia. Building Permits in April increased by 3% instead of a forecasted decline of 2.8%, while the Private Sector Credit rose from 6.4% to 6.7%.
Today attention also needs to be paid to data on the Consumer Confidence in the US. Growth in the index will pressure the pair.

Support and resistance
On the daily chart, the pair is trading in the lower Bollinger band, while bands are directed down and the price range is narrowing. MACD histogram is in the negative zone and signalling sales. Stochastic is growing.

Support levels: 0.7216, 0.7182, 0.7137, 0.7107, 0.7067, 0.7054, 0.7004.
Resistance levels: 0.7288, 0.7334, 0.7364, 0.7406, 0.7451.

Trading tips
Long positions can be opened from current prices with the target at 0.7288 and stop-loss at 0.7216. Validity – 1 day.
Short positions can be opened from the level of 0.7288 with targets at 0.7182, 0.7107 and stop-loss at 0.7334. Validity – 1-3 days.

 

[LiteForexNews]

GBP/JPY: general review

Current trend
Since the beginning of the week, the pair continues falling. The Pound was pressured by weak macroeconomic statistics from the UK where the Consumer Credit shrank from 1.822 to 1.298 million Pounds, against a forecasted decline to 1.6 million. In addition, Mortgage Approvals fell from 70.31 to 66.25 thousands.
Today attention needs to be paid to data on the PMI Construction and BOE’s Governor Carney speech in the UK.

Support and resistance
On the daily chart, the pair is falling after broking down the middle MA of Bollinger Bands, while bands are directed horizontally. MACD histogram is in the positive zone and its volumes are falling. Stochastic is in the oversold zone and keeping a sell signal.

The indicators recommend short positions.
Support levels: 156.56, 155.56, 154.44, 153.38.
Resistance levels: 158.08, 158.87, 159.60, 160.33, 161.25, 163.10, 163.83, 165.02.

Trading tips
Short positions can be opened from current prices with the target at 154.44 and stop-loss at 159.60. Validity – 1-2 days.
Long positions can be opened from the level of 158.87 with targets at 160.33, 163.10 and stop-loss at 156.56. Validity – 1-2 days.

 

[LiteForexNews]

USD/CAD: general analysis

Current trend
During the week, the USD/CAD pair has been gradually growing. Yesterday the Canadian Dollar was under pressure, as results of the OPEC meeting in Vienna accelerated a fall in oil prices. Though the Deputy Governor of the Bank of Canada said Canada’s economic prospects are seen as generally favorable, the national currency did not managed to gain due support. At the same time, the US Dollar strengthened amid macroeconomic statistics on US labour market and commentaries of Federal Reserve Governor Jerome Powell.
Today precise attention needs to be paid to data on the Unemployment Rate and the Nonfarm Payrolls, released in the US.

Support and resistance
On the 4-hour chart, the price rebounded from the middle MA of Bollinger Bands. The indicator is directed horizontally, the price range has narrowed that suggests the possibility of a trend reversal. MACD histogram is slightly growing and remains near the zero line. Stochastic is approaching the oversold zone.
The indicators recommend waiting for clearer trading signals.
Support levels: 1.3084, 1.3076, 1.3065, 1.3055, 1.3041.
Resistance levels: 1.3094, 1.3103, 1.3112, 1.3119, 1.3132, 1.3142, 1.3153.

Trading tips
Long positions can be opened from the current level with the target at 1.312 and stop-loss at 1.3065. Validity – 1-2 days.
Short positions can be opened after the level of 1.3084 is broken down with targets at 1.3065, 1.3055 and stop-loss at 1.3103. Validity – 1-2 days.

 

[LiteForexNews]

EUR/USD: review and forecast

Current trend
In the end of last week, the pair significantly grew amid the publication of weak macroeconomic statistics in the US, where the Nonfarm Payrolls came out at only 38 thousands, while economists predicted 164 thousands. The data lowered the probability of an interest rate hike at June’s meeting of the Fed to 4% that lead to a drop in the US against all major currencies.
Today attention needs to be paid to Fed’s Yellen speech that could determine Dollar’s dynamics for the nearest future.

Support and resistance
On the daily chart, the pair bounced off the lower border of the ascending channel and broke out the middle MA of Bollinger Bands, which indicates further growth potential.
Support levels: 1.1300, 1.1130, 1.1050.
Resistance levels: 1.1375, 1.1450, 1.1540.

Trading tips
Long positions can be opened from the level of 1.1380 with targets at 1.1450, 1.1540 and stop-loss at 1.1350.
Short positions can be opened from the level of 1.1300 with the target at 1.1220 and stop-loss at 1.1330.

 

[LiteForexNews]

EUR/USD: general analysis

Current trend
Last week, the EUR/USD pair grew amid weak US labour market data. In particular, the Nonfarm payrolls came in at 38 thousands. However, there still a good chance of the Federal Reserve tightening its monetary policy this summer that may strengthen the US Dollar.

The Euro remains under pressure from a fall in German bond yields. Moreover, as long as there is still uncertainty around Brexit vote, the American currency may get support.

Support and resistance
RSI is below 70 suggesting the possibility of a price fall in the short term.
The nearest support level is at 1.1322.
The nearest resistance level is at 1.1379.

Trading tips
Short positions can be opened from the level of 1.1360 with the target at 1.1322 and stop-loss at 1.1380.

 

[LiteForexNews]

AUD/USD

Current trend
On Tuesday the AUD/USD pair strengthened to its new local high being supported by results of the RBA monetary policy meeting.

RBA’s assessment of economic prospects was quite optimistic, and interest rates were left unchanged at 1.75%. The Regulator believes that the current monetary policy would be consistent with sustainable growth in the economy. However, inflation in Australia is expected to remain quite low for some time, but some signs of improvement are seen here as well.

The US Dollar, in its turn, is still under pressure from weak US labour market data and due to uncertainty regarding Fed’s tightening of monetary policy in the coming months.

Support and resistance
Bollinger Bands on the daily chart is showing a strong growth while the price range is widening actively. However, the price remains above the upper MA that indicates a downward correction possibility. MACD is growing and keeping a buy signal. Stochastic has reached its highs in the overbought zoned and turned horizontally.
The indicators recommend waiting for clearer trading signals.

Support levels: 0.7426, 0.7400, 0.7369 (7 June level), 0.7327, 0.7300, 0.7259, 0.7200 (near 2 June low), 0.7144 (24 May low).
Resistance levels: 0.7463 (7 June high), 0.7500 (5 May level), 0.7533, 0.7567, 0.7593, 0.7618 (3 May level).

Trading tips
Long positions can be opened after the levels of 0.7463 and 0.7500 are broken out with targets at 0.7567, 0.7593, 0.7618 and stop-loss at 0.7426, 0.7400. Validity – 2-4 days.

Short positions can be opened after the levels of 0.7426, 0.7400 are broken down with the target at 0.7200 and stop-loss at 0.7463. Validity – 2-3 days.