Forex Analysis by LiteForex

[LiteForexNews]

EUR/USD: review and forecast

Current trend

Yesterday the EUR/USD pair showed choppy trade and slightly fell on the day.
Today investors are focused on the US Fed Interest Rate Decision. Markets do not expect any changes in interest rates. In addition, the regulator will release its forecasts on economic growth, unemployment, inflation and its further plans regarding monetary policy.

At the same time, few of experts forecast an increase in interest rates during this meeting as some of the Fed officials earlier supported such step. However, the probability of this remains low.

Support and resistance

On the daily chart, the pair continues falling along the descending channel.
MACD histogram is about to enter the negative zone. Stochastic lines are in the oversold zone and directed down.
Support levels: 1.1120, 1.1050, 1.0980.
Resistance levels: 1.1180, 1.1230, 1.1300.

Trading tips

Long positions can be opened from the level of 1.1180 with targets at 1.1230, 1.1300 and stop-loss at 1.1150.
Short positions can be opened from the level of 1.1120 with the target at 1.1050 and stop-loss at 1.1150.

 

[LiteForexNews]

EUR/USD: general review

Current trend

On Wednesday, the EUR/USD pair significantly strengthened amid the decision by the American regulator to keep its interest rate unchanged. At the same time, in the Monetary Policy Statement it was noted that the possibility of policy tightening in the nearest future is very high.

Today, pair’s dynamics can be affected by the publication of data on the Chicago Fed National Activity Index and on Jobless Claims in the US. In addition, high volatility on the market can be caused by ECB President Draghi speech regarding economic conditions in the eurozone.

Support and resistance

On the daily chart, the instrument broke out a strong resistance level at 1.1120. Bollinger Bands is directed down while the price range is narrowing. MACD histogram is near the zero line. Stochastic has left the oversold zone.
The indicators recommend waiting for clearer trading signals.
Support levels: 1.1217, 1.1199, 1.1182, 1.1148, 1.1100, 1.1070.
Resistance levels: 1.1250, 1.1271, 1.1280, 1.1306, 1.1327.

Trading tips

Long positions can be opened from current prices with the target at 1.1280 and stop-loss at 1.1195. Validity – 1-2 days.
Short positions can be opened from the level of 1.1195 with the target at 1.1150 and stop-loss at 1.1220. Validity – 1-2 days.

 

[LiteForexNews]

USD/JPY: pair corrected

Current trend

Yesterday the pair slightly corrected up after a significant fall the day earlier when their decisions on interest rates made the Bank of Japan and US Fed.

The Japanese regulator left the rate unchanged while markets expected its further cut into a negative -0.15%. At the same time, the central bank introduced a target for 10-year government bond yields, which it is going to keep around 0%. The US Fed, in its turn, also kept its monetary policy unchanged that matched expectations of the majority of experts.

In addition, the Yen was supported by strong data on the Nikkei Manufacturing PMI that came out today in Japan. In September, the index grew from 49.5 to 50.3 points while economists forecasted a decline to 49.3 points.

Support and resistance

Bollinger Bands on the daily chart is moving down while the price range is widening. MACD is turning up but keeping its previous sell signal yet. Stochastic is leaving the oversold zone with a buy signal.
The indicators recommend long positions.

Support levels: 100.93 (local low), 100.67, 100.00 (psychologically important level), 99.53, 99.00 (24 June low).
Resistance levels: 101.20 (local high), 101.41, 101.73, 102.00 (local high), 102.26, 102.45, 102.78 (local high), 103.00, 103.18, 103.55 (6 September high), 104.00, 104.31 (2 September high), 104.82, 105.59.

Trading tips

Long positions can be opened after the breakout of the level of 101.40 (with the appropriate indicators signals) with targets at 101.94, 102.50 and stop-loss at 101.10. Validity – 2-3 days.
Short positons can be opened after the breakdown of the level of 100.70 with targets at 100.10, 99.85, 99.53 and stop-loss at 101.10. Validity – 2-4 days.

 

[forker]

What I don't get with this trade process is the 2 way trade convention. It's great that you start with fundamental analysis although I wouldn't call the pmi data strong. The crux of the issue is fundamental analysis leads to 2 outcomes ( open a trade or leave it). What is the point of studying fundamentals if you then put forward to open a long above a level or a short below a level? In this trade approach the fundamentals are pointless.

 

[LiteForexNews]

USD/JPY: review and forecast

Current trend

The pair significantly fell last week amid weakening in the US Dollar after the Fed decided to keep its interest rate unchanged. In addition, commentaries regarding monetary policy showed regulator’s cautiousness when it comes to further rate increases.

This week attention needs to be paid to Bank of Japan Governor Kuroda speech. At its last meeting, the Japanese regulator left the key interest rate at the current -0.1% and the size of the bond purchases at 80 trillion Yen. However, after cautious statements from the Fed, Kuroda could hint about further easing in monetary policy in order to weaken the Yen.

Support and resistance

The pair continues testing a strong support level of 100.00 having failed to leave the descending channel.
On the daily chart, a pattern “inside bar” has formed. MACD histogram is in the negative zone and its volumes are growing. Stochastic is trying to leave the oversold zone.
Support levels: 100.00, 98.90.
Resistance levels: 101.25, 102.20, 103.30.

Trading tips

Pending buy orders can be placed at the level of 100.00 with the target at 103.30 and stop-loss at 99.00.
Short positions can be opened from the level of 98.80 with the target at 98.00 and stop-loss at 99.40.

 

[LiteForexNews]

AUD/USD: pair is strengthening

Current trend

The pair continues growing amid weakening in the US Dollar, which remains under pressure after quite cautious commentaries from the Fed officials regarding further monetary policy tightening.

In addition, the American currency is pressured by a large number of macroeconomic statistics that is coming out in the US this week, and its forecasts are not very optimistic. Tomorrow, data on Durable Goods Orders is due to be published, while yearly data on the GDP for the second quarter of the year and on Personal Consumption, Personal Income and Spending will be released on Thursday and Friday in the US. Furthermore, Fed’s Yellen will testify tomorrow and Fed’s James Bullard, Charles Evans and Loretta Mester will give their speeches.

Support and resistance

Bollinger Bands on the daily chart is moving horizontally while the price range is narrowing. MACD is growing and giving a quite strong buy signal. Stochastic is trying to leave the overbought zone.
The indicator recommend waiting for clearer trading signals.

Support levels: 0.7655 (local low), 0.7638, 0.7615, 0.7600 (local low), 0.7583, 0.7567, 0.7539, 0.7516, 0.7500 (19 September low), 0.7474, 0.7441 (13 September low).
Resistance levels: 0.7674 (22 September high), 0.7691, 0.7731 (8 September high), 0.7755 (10 August high), 0.7800 (21 April high).

Trading tips

Long positions can be opened after the breakout of the level of 0.7700 (with the appropriate indicators signals) with targets at 0.7731, 0.7755, 0.7800 and stop-loss at 0.7655. Validity – 2-3 days.
Short positions can be opened after the price rebound from the level of 0.7674 with targets at 0.7600, 0.7583, 0.7567 and stop-loss at 0.7720. Validity – 2-4 days.

 

[LiteForexNews]

USD/JPY: technical analysis

USD/JPY, D1

On the daily chart, the pair is trading in the lower Bollinger band. The price remains below its moving averages that are directed down. The RSI is about to retest its longer MA. The Composite is growing towards its longer MA as well.

USD/JPY, H4

On the 4-hour chart, the pair is trading on the middle MA of Bollinger Bands. The price remains below its moving averages that are turning down. The RSI is turning down towards its longer MA. The Composite is testing its resistance level.

Key levels

Support levels: 100.09 (local lows), 99.61 (50% Fibonacci retracement), 96.86 (October 2013 lows).
Resistance levels: 102.96 (local highs), 104.14 (September highs), 105.25 (61.8% retracement).

Trading tips

The price is consolidating between its descending trendline and 61.8% fan line and 50% retracement.
Long positions can be opened from the level of 102.96 with targets at 104.14, 105.25 and stop-loss at 102.23. Validity – 3-4 days.
Short positions can be opened from the level of 99.61 with the target at 96.86 and stop-loss at 100.19. Validity – 3-4 days.

 

[LiteForexNews]

USD/JPY: general review

Current trend

The USD/JPY pair is growing amid a fall in Retail Sales in Japan. The index fell by 1.1% on a month-to-month basis and by 2.1% on a year-over-year basis. Large Retailers’ Sales declined by 3.6% that was significantly worse than a forecasted fall of 1.8%.

Today attention needs to be paid to data on the GDP for the second quarter of the year in the US. According to forecasts, the index will increase by 0.2%, which could support the US Dollar.

Support and resistance

The pair is trying to break out a resistance level at 101.43 that is formed of the moving average with a 100 period.
On the 4-hour chart, the price is trading above the upper line of Bollinger Bands. MACD histogram is about to enter the positive zone. Stochastic reached the overbought zone.
Support levels: 101.20, 100.60, 100.15.
Resistance levels: 101.40, 101.80, 102.30, 102.68, 103.00, 103.50, 114.15.

Trading tips

Long positions can be opened after the price consolidation above the level of 101.40 with targets at 101.80, 102.30 and stop-loss at 101.20. Validity – 1-3 days.
Short positions can be opened from the level of 101.10 with the target at 100.60 and stop-loss at 101.30. Validity – 1-3 days.
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[LiteForexNews]

XAU/USD: review and forecast

Current trend

Today the price of gold strengthened amid growing worries on the market.
Anxiety growth was caused by the situation around Deutsche Bank. In September, the US government accused the biggest German investment bank of wrongdoing with the mortgage-back securities. The US Department of Justice can fine the bank $14 billion that lead to its share prices drop of 7% at the opening of the trade. As Deutsche Bank is one of the 29 biggest banks in the world, it problems could affect all financial markets thus investors are switching their funds into safe-havens, such as gold.

Support and resistance

The price is consolidating near the lower border of the ascending channel. Amid low trading volumes, the price is likely to reverse up towards the levels of 1330.00, 1340.00, and 1350.0.
Support levels: 1330.00, 1340.00, 1350.00.
Resistance levels: 1319.53, 1312.00, 1306.40.

Trading tips

Short positions can be opened from the level of 1319.00 with the target at 1312.00 and stop-loss at 1323.00.
Long positions can be opened from the level of 1330.00 with the target at 1340.00 and stop-loss at 1325.00.
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[LiteForexNews]

BRENT: technical analysis

BRENT, D1

The instrument is testing the upper border of the Bollinger Bands indicator, which may suggest an attempt of price correction. The indicator is directed upwards while the price range is getting larger. MACD is located near the zero point. Stochastic has moved to the overbought zone and is trying to reverse. If it does so, a signal to sell may be formed.

BRENT, H4

The instrument is trading in the upper band of the indicator on H4 chart while the indicator is directed upwards. MACD is located in the positive zone; its volumes have reached record highs and start decreasing. Stochastic is undergoing correction near a border of the overbought zone. On the whole, indicators suggest that the price may continue dropping smoothly.

Key levels

Support levels: 47.66, 48.22, 48.46, 48.78, 48.95, 49.33, 49.49, 49.72, 49.90, 50.13, 50.37.
Resistance levels: 50.86, 51.04, 51.24.

Trading tips

Short positions can be opened at current price with targets at 49.75, 49.30 and Stop Loss at 50.80. This recommendation would be valid for 1-3 days.
Long positions can be opened from a level of 50.85 with targets of 51.25, 51.50 and Stop Loss at 50.60. This recommendation would be valid for 1-3 days.
http://savepic.ru/11680000.png
http://savepic.ru/11667712.png

 

[LiteForexNews]

GBP/USD: general review

Current trend

The pair continues falling amid weakening in the Pound after the statement from UK’s Prime Minister Theresa May that the process of county’s departure from the EU will be started in March 2017. In addition, the pair is pressured by growing expectations of an interest rate hike by the American regulator before the end of the year.
This week, extra attention needs to be paid to data on the US labour market. The forecasted growth in the Nonfarm Payrolls to 172 thousand of new jobs could significantly support the Dollar. In the UK, data on the NIESR GDP Estimate is due.

Support and resistance

On the 4-hour chart, the pair is testing the support level at 1.2705.
Bollinger Bands is directed down while the price range slightly narrowed. MACD histogram is in the negative zone and its volumes are stable. Stochastic is growing having left the oversold zone.
The indicators recommend waiting for clearer trading signals.
Support levels: 1.2719, 1.2704, 1.2680, 1.2660.
Resistance levels: 1.2751, 1.2775, 1.2811, 1.2836, 1.2860, 1.2894.

Trading tips

Short positions can be opened from the level of 1.2675 with the target at 1.2600 and stop-loss at 1.2720. Validity – 1-2 days.
Long positions can be opened from the level of 1.2755 with targets at 1.2795, 1.2820 and stop-loss at 1.2680. Validity – 1-2 days.
http://savepic.ru/11682821.png

 

[LiteForexNews]

EUR/USD: general review

Current trend

The pair continues falling after the ECB statement that the regulator is not planning to terminate its quantitative easing program in the nearest future. In addition, the Euro remains under pressure prior to the publication of the ECB Monetary Policy Meeting Accounts.

At the same time, the American currency was supported by strong macroeconomic statistics that came out in the US. The Manufacturing and Services PMI’s, as well as Factory Orders showed substantial growth in the indices.
This week, extra attention needs to be paid to data on the US labour market that is due on Friday.

Support and resistance

The nearest support level is at 1.1177.
The nearest resistance level is at 1.1243.

Trading tips

Short positions can be opened from the level of 1.1160 with the target at 1.1121 and stop-loss at 1.1205.
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[LiteForexNews]

NZD/USD: review and forecast

Current trend

Last week the pair significantly fell having lost more than 100 points. The NZD was pressured by a 3% drop in prices for milk while the USD was strengthening amid a decline in the number of Initial Jobless Claims in the US.
This week attention needs to be paid to the FOMC Minutes that could provide some clarity about further plans of the regulator on monetary policy in the US. On Friday, data on Retail Sales is due in the US. The index is expected to increase by 0.6% that could provide additional support to the USD.

Support and resistance

On the daily chart, the pair is falling along the lower line of Bollinger Bands. MACD histogram is in the negative zone and its volumes are growing.
Support levels: 0.7100, 0.7000, 0.6935, 0.6820, 0.6740, 0.6670.
Resistance levels: 0.7200, 0.7255, 0.7315, 0.7365, 0.7425, 0.7485.

Trading tips

Short positions can be opened from current prices with targets at 0.7050, 0.7000 and stop-loss at 0.7200. Validity – 2-5 days.
Long positions can be opened from the level of 0.7220 with the target at 0.7300 and stop-loss at 0.7200. Validity – 2-5 days.

 

[LiteForexNews]

EUR/USD: review and forecast

Current trend

The EUR/USD pair continues falling despite the lack of major macroeconomic data releases. The US Dollar has been strengthening against its counterparts amid expectations that the Federal Reserve will raise interest rates. Market participants are now waiting for the publication of minutes of the Fed September meeting that is due tomorrow at 8:00 pm (GMT+2).

Today strong statistics from Germany has not managed to support the instrument. Nevertheless, it should be noted that assessment of the current situation in Germany grew from 55.1 to 59.5 points in October while the economic sentiment index rose from 0.5 to 6.2 points, the ZEW survey showed.

Support and resistance

Bollinger Bands on the 4-hour chart is directed down suggesting further downward movement in the pair. MACD histogram remains in the negative zone, its volumes are growing and forming a sell signal.
Support levels: 1.1075, 1.1048, 1.1000, 1.0950.
Resistance levels: 1.1115, 1.1156, 1.1206, 1.1236.

Trading tips

Short positions can be opened after the price breaks down and consolidates below the level of 1.1075 with targets at 1.1048, 1.1000 and stop-loss at 1.1100.
Long positions can be opened after the price consolidates above the level of 1.1115 with targets at 1.1156, 1.1206 and stop-loss at 1.1085.

 

[LiteForexNews]

USD/JPY: technical analysis
USD/JPY, D1
On the daily chart, the pair is trading in the upper Bollinger band. The price remains below the EMA130 and SMA200 that turned horizontal. The RSI is trying to turn up to retest its most recent resistance. The Composite is about to test its longer MA.

USD/JPY, H4

On the 4-hour chart, the pair is trading just above the middle MA of Bollinger Bands. The price remains above its moving averages that are directed up. The RSI is turning up in the Bullish zone above the 50 mark. The Composite is turning up as well.

Key levels

Support levels: 102.84 (local lows), 102.30 (active trade), 101.44 (June lows).
Resistance levels: 104.16 (local highs), 105.30 (61.8% Fibonacci correction), 106.11 (April lows).

Trading tips

The pair broke out its long-term descending trendline. Growth is likely to continue.
Long positions can be opened from the level of 104.16 with targets at 105.30, 106.11 and stop-loss at 103.78. Validity – 3-5 days.
Short positions can be opened from the level of 102.84 with targets at 102.30, 101.44 and stop-loss at 103.16. Validity – 3-5 days.

 

[LiteForexNews]

EUR/USD: review and forecast

Current trend

The Euro against the US Dollar continues trading in the region of 1.1000. Having fallen to the level of 1.0985, the pair corrected up but then resumed its fall and is now aiming to consolidate below the level of 1.0950.
Today the market can be influenced by the publication of data on US retail sales in September. Favorable macroeconomic forecasts suggest strengthening in the US Dollar that will pressure the EUR/USD pair.

Support and resistance

Bollinger Bands is still directed down while the price range is narrowing. The price continues falling from the middle line of the indicator towards the lower one.
Given this data and the projected rise in US retail sales, the price is likely to try to break down the level of 1.0985 and head towards 1.0950.

Support levels: 1.1000, 1.0980, 1.0960, 1.0950, 1.0910, 1.0900, 1.0880, 1.0850, 1.0800, 1.0760, 1.0700, 1.0670.
Resistance levels: 1.1050, 1.1065, 1.1100, 1.1140, 1.1180, 1.1200, 1.1230, 1.1280, 1.1300, 1.1330, 1.1360, 1.1370, 1.1400, 1.1420, 1.1430, 1.1450, 1.1490, 1.1500, 1.1530, 1.1550.

Trading tips

Short positions can be opened from the current level with targets at 1.0985, 1.0950 and stop-loss at 1.1040.
At the same time, the possibility of a price rebound should not be dismissed, thus, pending sell order can be placed at the level of 1.0985 with the target at 1.1040 and stop-loss at 1.0950.

 

[LiteForexNews]

USD/CAD: general analysis

Current trend

On Wednesday dynamics in the USD/CAD pair was substantially influenced by the Bank of Canada monetary policy meeting results. The US Dollar fell against the Canadian Dollar after the regulator announced its decision to keep the interest rate unchanged. A fall in the pair continued despite data from the US Energy Information Administration, which showed a drop of 5 million barrels in US crude stockpiles. The price then reversed when Stephen Poloz, Bank of Canada Governor, said that further monetary policy easing was discussed policymakers.

Support and resistance

Bollinger Bands on the 4-hour chart is about to turn up while the price range is widening. MACD is growing and keeping a weak buy signal. Stochastic has entered the overbought zone.
The indicators recommend long positions.
Support levels: 1.3154, 1.3136, 1.3116, 1.3103, 1.3059, 1.3037.
Resistance levels: 1.3175, 1.3191, 1.3211, 1.3237, 1.3260.

Trading tips

Long positions can be opened from the level 1.3180 with the target at 1.3240 and stop-loss at 1.3135. Validity – 1-3 days.
Short positions can be opened from the level 1.3155 with the target at 1.3100 and stop-loss at 1.3175. Validity – 1-2 days.

 

[LiteForexNews]

XAU/USD: general analysis

Current trend

The price of gold is falling amid strengthening in the US Dollar, which is still being supported by expectations of the Fed raising interest rates before the end of this year. In the short term, dynamics in the pair is likely to remain downward as long as a strong US Dollar makes precious metals less attractive assets for investors.
At the end of this week, there are no macroeconomic factors which could influence dynamics of the trading instrument.

Support and resistance

Bollinger Bands on the 4-hour chart is directed horizontally while the price range has narrowed slightly. MACD histogram remains in the positive zone and is keeping a weak sell signal. Stochastic is about to leave the oversold zone and form a strong buy signal.

The indicators recommend long positions, but it is worth waiting for clearer trading signals.
Support levels: 1260.67, 1257.26, 1253.63, 1250.00, 1247.27.
Resistance levels: 1265.66, 1268.61, 1271.56, 1274.06, 1276.33.

Trading tips

Short positions can be opened from the level of 1263.00 with the target at 1258.30 and stop-loss at 1266.70. Validity – 1-2 days.
Long positions can be opened from the level of 1266.30 with targets at 1268.60, 1269.80 and stop-loss at 1264.00. Validity – 1-2 days.

 

[LiteForexNews]

EUR/USD^ general analysis

Current trend

A double bottom pattern with the support level at 1.0859 has been formed on the hourly chart. The Euro came under pressure when the ECB decided to hold its key interest rates and quantitative easing programme steady. ECB President Mario Draghi said that there had been no discussion regarding the wind-down of the programme in the nearest future.
Today attention needs to be paid to data on the Markit US Manufacturing PMI for October.

Support and resistance

The nearest support level is at 1.0859.
The nearest resistance level is at 1.0911.

Trading tips

Short positions can be opened from the level of 1.0911 with the target at 1.0755 and stop-loss at 1.0955.

 

[LiteForexNews]

XAU/USD: review and forecast

Current trend

The price of gold remains in a sideway range. During yesterday’s session, the price of gold fell to the level of 1260.38 but buyers managed to hold the important level.

According to experts, god could gain 15% towards the end of the year as markets have already priced in an upcoming interest rate hike in the US. The pace of monetary policy tightening will remain slow which will smooth the pressure from the strengthening Dollar.
This week investors are waiting for data on the US GDP that could give them clues about the state of the American economy and readiness of the Fed to increase interest rate in December.

Support and resistance

The instrument is still trading above the strong support level at 1260.00. In case of a price consolidation above the level of 1274.00, there is a high chance of a growth continuation towards next resistance levels.
On the 4-hour chart, the indicators do not give clear trading signals. Stochastic line are directed down having left the overbought zone. MACD histogram is in the negative zone and its volumes are falling.
Support levels: 1260.00, 1250.00, 1242.00.
Resistance levels: 1274.00, 1285.15, 1300.00.

Trading tips

Long positions can be opened from the level of 1275.00 with the target at 1285.00 and stop-loss at 1270.00.
Short positons can be opened from the level of 1259.00 with targets at 1250.00, 1242.00 and stop-loss at 1265.00.