Tifia Daily Market Analytics

[TifiaFX]

AUD/USD: commodity currencies strengthened on Monday

02/03/2020

During the Asian session on Monday, the AUD / USD pair rose by 1.3% to 0.6550, which is 115 points higher than the minimum reached last Friday.

Some economists and investors are beginning to gradually realize that fears of a global coronavirus pandemic and a fall in global stock indices have turned out to be excessive.

Moreover, some leaders of global central banks have made it clear that central banks will support the economy if necessary.

Jerome Powell, chairman of the US Federal Reserve, made it clear on Friday that the central bank is preparing to lower interest rates to support the economy in light of the spread of coronavirus.

On Monday, Bank of Japan Governor Haruhiko Kuroda said the central bank is closely monitoring the development of the situation around the coronavirus and "will be able to provide enough liquidity, as well as ensure the stability of financial markets through market operations and asset acquisitions".

Market participants will be waiting for the results of the meetings of the central banks of Australia and Canada, which will be held this week. Some investors and economists expect the RBA to cut rates by 25 basis points on Tuesday, and then continue to cut rates in April.

If the RBA takes this step, then other major central banks may follow suit. The decision on the RBA interest rate will be published on Tuesday at 03:30 (GMT).

On Monday, AUD / USD is growing, trying to develop a correction into the zone above the short-term resistance level of 0.6587 (ЕМА200 on the 1-hour chart).

In case of its breakdown, correctional growth will continue to resistance levels of 0.6670, 0.6700 (ЕМА200 on the 4-hour chart).

A signal for the resumption of decline may be a breakdown of the short-term support level of 0.6535 (EMA200 on the 15-minute chart).

Below the key resistance level of 0.6850 (ЕМА200 on the daily chart), the downward global trend of AUD / USD prevails.

Support Levels: 0.6535, 0.6500, 0.6434, 0.6400, 0.6300

Resistance Levels: 0.6587, 0.6670, 0.6700, 0.6755, 0.6810, 0.6850



Trading Recommendations

Sell Stop 0.6530. Stop-Loss 0.6590. Take-Profit 0.6500, 0.6434, 0.6400, 0.6300

Buy Stop 0.6590. Stop-Loss 0.6530. Take-Profit 0.6670, 0.6700, 0.6755, 0.6810, 0.6850

 

[TifiaFX]

USD/CAD: global central banks will support the economy

03/03/2020

Back in January, the USD / CAD was traded near the multi-month low of 1.2960, which corresponds to the levels of October 2018. However, already at the end of February, USD / CAD reached 1.3460 (June 2019 levels), gaining 4.3% in two months.

Fears about the coronavirus pandemic caused a severe drop in world stock indices and commodity prices, with which crawled down and commodity currencies quotes.

In its latest report, released on Monday, the Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) lowered its forecast for economic growth in 2020, as China's economy was hit hard by the outbreak of coronavirus. Now the OECD expects that global GDP this year will grow by 2.4% compared to 2.9% according to the December forecast.

Investors now hope that global central banks and government departments will help markets stabilize and protect the economy from the effects of coronavirus.

The RB of Australia lowered its interest rate by 0.25% on Tuesday, bringing it to the level of 0.50%, which was the fourth decrease in less than a year. RBA Governor Philip Lowe signaled the likelihood of further policy easing.

On Wednesday, a meeting of the Bank of Canada will take place, and the decision on the rate will be published at 15:00 (GMT).

If the Bank of Canada reduces the rate by 0.25%, then it will drop to 1.50% from the current 1.75%.

Signs of worsening morbidity in Iran, Italy and South Korea are forcing market participants and global central banks and governments to overestimate the severity of impending problems. The decline in world commodity prices, primarily oil, is also putting pressure on the Canadian dollar. Thus, the USD / CAD pair is likely to maintain positive momentum, at least this week.

Above the short-term support level of 1.3330 (ЕМА200 on the 1-hour chart), only long positions should be considered. A signal for sales may be a breakdown of this support level with a target at support levels 1.3253 (ЕМА200 on the 4-hour chart), 1.3215 (ЕМА200 on the daily chart). Above the support level of 1.3215, the bullish trend of USD / CAD prevails.

Support Levels: 1.3345, 1.3330, 1.3253, 1.3215

Resistance Levels: 1.3380, 1.3435, 1.3452, 1.3465



Trading Scenarios

Sell Stop 1.3310. Stop-Loss 1.3410. Take-Profit 1.3253, 1.3215

Buy in the market. Stop-Loss 1.3310. Take-Profit 1.3380, 1.3435, 1.3452, 1.3465

 

[TifiaFX]

NZD/USD: emergency measures

04/03/2020

As a result of an almost recoilless decline over the past 2 months, the NZD / USD pair reached a local minimum near the 0.6190 mark in early March, which corresponds to the lows of July 2009, when the global crisis of 2008 only began to decline.

However, in early March, the decline in NZD / USD stopped, and in the last 3 days the pair rose sharply, reaching 0.6300 at the beginning of today's European session.

On Tuesday, representatives of the G7 promised to use all the necessary tools to protect their economies from the risks associated with the outbreak of coronavirus, and the Fed unexpectedly lowered the interest rate by 0.50%. “The fundamental economic indicators of the United States remain strong. Nevertheless, coronavirus poses a growing risk for economic activity”, the central bank said. “The Committee (the Federal Reserve for Open Market Operations) is closely monitoring developments and their potential impact on economic prospects. intending to use their tools and act accordingly to support the economy".

In March, the Fed, the ECB, the Bank of Japan, the Bank of England, the National Bank of Switzerland, and the RB of New Zealand will hold their next meetings on monetary policy, and today the Bank of Canada will decide on the rates.

He will probably also follow the example of the Fed and lower the interest rate. A meeting of the Reserve Bank of New Zealand is scheduled for March 25. The bank is likely to lower its key interest rate, and it is possible to lower it by 0.50%. However, a more significant role in the dynamics of NZD will be played by the state of world stock markets.

If the growth of stock indices continues, then, accordingly, commodity currencies, in particular, NZD, will continue to strengthen.

OsMA and Stochastic indicators on the 1-hour, 4-hour, daily charts of the pair NZD / USD turned to long positions. In case of continued growth of NZD / USD, the target will be the resistance level of 0.6500 (EMA200 on the daily chart).

Below this level of resistance, negative long-term dynamics still prevail, and a return to the zone below the level of 0.6300 (EMA200 on the 1-hour chart) will cause a resumption of the decline in NZD / USD.

In this case, the targets will be the support levels of 0.6260 (September 2015 lows and the Fibonacci level 0% of the correction in the global wave of pair decline from the level of 0.8820), 0.6205 (September lows), 0.6190 (local multi-year lows).

Support Levels: 0.6260, 0.6200, 0.6100

Resistance Levels: 0.6300, 0.6322, 0.6378, 0.6406, 0.6485, 0.6505, 0.6600, 0.6635, 0.6665, 0.6740, 0.6830, 0.6865



Trading Scenarios

Sell Stop 0.6290. Stop-Loss 0.6325. Take-Profit 0.6260, 0.6200, 0.6100

Buy Stop 0.6325. Stop-Loss 0.6290. Take-Profit 0.6378, 0.6406, 0.6485, 0.6505, 0.6600, 0.6635, 0.6665, 0.6740, 0.6830, 0.6865

 

[TifiaFX]

Brent: prices remain vulnerable

05/03/2020

The price of oil continues to decline. It is likely that until a final turning point in the global stock market occurs, commodity prices, including oil, will remain under pressure with a tendency to further decline.

Today, oil market participants will be waiting for the first results of the OPEC+ coalition meeting. The positive outcome of the meeting may be the first step towards the restoration of the oil market.

At the same time, lower interest rates by global central banks can help the global economy deal with the impact of a coronavirus outbreak. This will also positively affect oil quotes.

Investors expect the OPEC+ coalition to further reduce production to stabilize the oil market. At the same time, the exact amount of a possible additional decline in production, which is 1.7 million barrels per day, is not yet clear.

If the parties cannot agree on significant volumes of production cuts, then the positive effect of the meeting in Vienna will be short-lived.

In case of breakdown of the support level of 50.00 (Fibonacci level 61.8% of downward correction in the wave of price growth from a level near the level of 27.10 to the highs of October 2018 near the level of 86.60 dollars per barrel), the nearest targets will be support levels of 49.00 (local minimum), 48.00 (lower downward channel border on the daily chart).

Only a breakdown of the key resistance level of 62.00 (EMA200 on the daily chart) will again make long positions relevant. Below this resistance level, long-term negative dynamics prevail.

Support Levels: 50.00, 49.00, 48.00

Resistance Levels: 53.50, 54.30, 56.90, 58.50, 60.40, 62.00



Trading Recommendations

Sell by market. Stop-Loss 54.40. Take-Profit 50.00, 49.00, 48.00

Buy Stop 54.40. Stop-Loss 51.90. Take-Profit 56.20, 56.90, 58.50, 60.40, 61.80

 

[TifiaFX]

EUR/USD: panic?

06/03/2020

Increased fears of a coronavirus pandemic plummeted global stocks at the start of today's European session. The DXY dollar index fell below 96.00, and the yield on 10-year US bonds fell by almost 18%, to 0.723%, to historical lows.

The growth of almost panic investor sentiment was facilitated by information on the penetration of coronavirus into the United States. EUR / USD updated the highs of July 2019, breaking through the psychologically significant resistance level of 1.1300, and reached the first critical resistance level of 1.1340 at the beginning of today's European session (EMA144 on the weekly chart). If the growth of EUR / USD does not stop, then the pair can reach the key resistance level of 1.1440 (EMA200 on the weekly chart), the breakdown of which can signal the breaking of the long-term bearish trend of EUR / USD.

Last Tuesday, the Fed unexpectedly lowered the interest rate by 0.50%, substantiating its decision with the need for preventive measures to maintain the American economy, which, according to Fed leaders, remains strong. The next Fed meeting will be held on March 18, and it is possible that the rate will be reduced again. By the way, US President Donald Trump after the Fed lowered the rate on Tuesday again called on the Fed to lower the interest rate even lower, down to 0%. “They (the Fed) are acting belatedly”, Trump said, but should, in his opinion, act ahead of events.

Today, volatility in the financial markets may rise again at 13:30 (GMT), when data from the US labor market will be published. Strong data expected.

Nevertheless, even if the data are confirmed or turn out to be better than expected (NFP is expected to grow by 175,000 new jobs), one should not expect a significant strengthening of the dollar and a fall in EUR / USD.

The fall of European stock indices leaves the euro, which is the funding currency, no chance of weakening.

In the current situation of growth of already almost panic moods, it makes no sense to expect a quick recovery of world stock indices. Technical analysis fades into the background.

And, nevertheless, you can’t completely forget about the alternative scenario. The first signal to start the correctional decline will be the breakdown of support levels 1.1285 (Fibonacci level 23.6% of upward correction to the fall of the pair from 1.3870 in May 2014 to 1.0480 reached in March 2015), 1.1240 (ЕМА200 on the 5-minute price chart and highs of December 2019).

However, only the return of EUR / USD to the zone below the key support level of 1.1100 (EMA200 on the daily chart) will reassure investors and create the prerequisites for the pair to sell.

Support Levels: 1.1300, 1.1285, 1.1240, 1.1205, 1.1100

Resistance Levels: 1.1340, 1.1400, 1.1440



Trading Recommendations

Sell Stop 1.1275. Stop-Loss 1.1330. Take-Profit 1.1240, 1.1205, 1.1100

Buy Stop 1.1330. Stop-Loss 1.1275. Take-Profit 1.1340, 1.1400, 1.1440

 

[TifiaFX]

GBP/USD: the pound may also be under pressure

10/03/2020

After sharp movements in the financial and commodity markets on Monday, caused by the collapse of stock indices and oil prices, a pullback occurs on Tuesday, although markets are still far from complete stabilization. It is possible that everything is just beginning and the worst is to come. Last Friday, OPEC and Russia were unable to reach an agreement to reduce oil production. In response to the failure of the deal, Saudi Arabia has lowered the selling price of oil and is going to increase the supply. The price war in the oil market may negatively affect other markets.

Negative sentiment prevails in the markets, triggered by investor fear over the coronavirus and price war, which could erupt in the oil market. Investors are forced to sell the dollar and risky assets, going into defensive assets such as yen, gold, government bonds. Yields on 10-year US bonds fell on Monday to 0.342%, the absolute minimum, and gold quotes last Monday exceeded $ 1,700.00 an ounce, although they subsequently declined to $ 1,680.00 an ounce. The dollar fell especially significantly against European currencies and the yen.

At the beginning of today's European session, GBP / USD is trading near 1.3050, while the dollar is gradually winning back the positions it lost on Monday, although it remains vulnerable on the eve of the Fed meeting on March 17-18.

GBP / USD continues to trade in the zone above the important support level of 1.2860 (ЕМА200 on the daily chart). In case of breakdown of the resistance levels 1.3210 (Fibonacci level 23.6% of the correction to the reduce of the GBP / USD in the wave that began in July 2014 near the level of 1.7200), 1.3310 (EMA200 on the weekly chart) GBP / USD will resume the upward trend and head towards the levels resistance 1.3960 (Fibonacci level 38.2%), 1.4350 (highs of 2018), which will talk about breaking the bearish trend GBP / USD.

The first signal for the implementation of an alternative negative scenario will be a breakdown of the short-term support level of 1.2965 (ЕМА200 on the 4-hour and 1-hour charts). The reduction targets are located at the support levels of 1.2735 (lows of March), 1.2590 (lows of May 2019 and the lower border of the descending channel on the daily chart), 1.2400, 1.2200 (lows of October), 1.2000 (lows of 2019 and the Fibonacci level of 0%).

Bank of England future manager Andrew Bailey said last week that the central bank could take stimulus measures before the scheduled meeting (March 26) if it considers that the economy urgently needs support in the wake of the coronavirus epidemic. Many economists expect the UK central bank to lower its key interest rate to 0.5% from 0.75% this month. This may adversely affect pound quotes. If the Bank of England favors a further reduction in the interest rate, then the pound, which for the time being remains stable, may weaken sharply.

Support Levels: 1.3000, 1.2965, 1.2860, 1.2735, 1.2590, 1.2400, 1.2200, 1.2000

Resistance Levels: 1.3069, 1.3210, 1.3310, 1.3510, 1.3960



Trading Scenarios

Sell Stop 1.2955. Stop-Loss 1.3075. Take-Profit 1.2860, 1.2735, 1.2590, 1.2400, 1.2200, 1.2000

Buy Stop 1.3075. Stop-Loss 1.2955. Take-Profit 1.3210, 1.3310, 1.3510, 1.3960

 

[TifiaFX]

AUD/USD: “gloomy” prospects

11/03/2020

Financial markets continue to be in a fever amid growing coronavirus epidemics and the risks of a significant slowdown in the global economy. Another negative factor unexpectedly added to the coronavirus factor last Friday, when the OPEC+ coalition practically collapsed. Russia and Saudi Arabia could not agree on a further reduction in oil production and export. Oil prices crashed down. They were followed by global stock indices and other commodity prices.

Last Monday, at the beginning of the trading day, the AUD / USD pair broke through the multi-year support level of 0.6435 for a short time (11-year low and Fibonacci level 0% of the correction to the decline wave, which began in July 2014 from 0.9500). And although AUD / USD subsequently rose, reaching an intraday high of 0.6680, the pair resumed its decline on Tuesday.

In early March, the Reserve Bank of Australia lowered its key rate by 25 basis points to a record low of 0.5%, which was the fourth rate cut in less than a year. “Ready for further easing of monetary policy”, the RBA said.

The Australian government is now preparing to announce fiscal stimulus measures in response to the economic damage from the epidemic. It seems increasingly likely that, because of the coronavirus, Australia's economy could go into recession for the first time in 28 years.

The prospects for the Australian dollar look depressing, given the sharp drop in commodity prices, including coal, oil and petroleum products, and iron ore, the main commodities of Australian commodity exports.

At the beginning of today's European session, the AUD / USD pair is trading near the 0.6525 mark, falling from an intraday high of 0.6535 reached earlier. With any upward correction of AUD, you should probably look for opportunities to enter short positions, including in the AUD / USD pair. Although, entering in the short positions "by the market" is likely to be appropriate too.

Below the key resistance level of 0.6830 (EMA200 on the daily chart), the downward global trend of AUD / USD prevails.

In the current situation and below the resistance level of 0.6655 (ЕМА200 on the 4-hour chart), only short positions should be considered.

Support Levels: 0.6500, 0.6435, 0.6400, 0.6310

Resistance Levels: 0.6575, 0.6655, 0.6700, 0.6755, 0.6790, 0.6830



Trading Recommendations

Sell Stop 0.6480. Stop-Loss 0.6580. Take-Profit 0.6435, 0.6400, 0.6310

Buy Stop 0.6580. Stop-Loss 0.6480. Take-Profit 0.6600, 0.6655, 0.6700, 0.6755, 0.6790, 0.6830

 

[TifiaFX]

EUR/USD: contradictory dynamics

12/03/2020

Today, investors will follow the ECB meeting, which will end with the publication at 12:45 (GMT) of the decision on interest rates. At 13:30 a press conference of the ECB will begin, during which the head of the ECB Christine Lagarde will explain the decision of the bank, assess the prospects of the European economy and, probably, touch on further plans for the monetary policy of the bank, as well as answer questions from journalists.

Earlier this month, 4 of the world's largest central banks (RB of Australia, Bank of Canada, Fed, Bank of England) reduced interest rates. The Fed, the Bank of Canada and the Bank of England took unprecedented measures by cutting the interest rate by 0.50%, and the Fed and the Bank of England did this during an extraordinary meeting.

The ECB is also expected to expand the stimulus package and lower the key interest rate, which is already in negative territory, at -0.5%.

The markets are dominated by fear of the global coronavirus pandemic. Many global stock indices have already moved to the side of the bear market.

At the beginning of this week, the EUR / USD pair briefly exceeded the key resistance level 1.1440 (EMA200 on the weekly chart), which separates EUR / USD from the bullish trend.

At the beginning of today's European session, EUR / USD is traded near 1.1230, below the important short-term support level of 1.1240 (EMA200 on the 1-hour chart), indicating a tendency to further decline.

Above the important support level 1.1120 (ЕМА200 on the daily chart), the upward trend prevails. The return of EUR / USD into the zone above the level of 1.1240 will be a signal for the resumption of long positions, although probably the most cautious investors will prefer to stay out of the market today.

Support Levels: 1.1240, 1.1205, 1.1120, 1.1080

Resistance Levels: 1.1285, 1.1340, 1.1400, 1.1440, 1.1490



Trading Recommendations

Sell by market. Stop-Loss 1.1290. Take-Profit 1.1205, 1.1120, 1.1080

Buy Stop 1.1310. Stop-Loss 1.1220. Take-Profit 1.1340, 1.1400, 1.1440, 1.1490

 

[TifiaFX]

DJIA: further decline is not ruled out

13/03/2020

Despite the correction of world stock indices observed today, it is still too early to start their purchases. The markets are dominated by investors' fears about the spread of coronavirus in the world and the slowdown of the global economy. World and US stock indices show the strongest decline over the past few years. Just 4 weeks ago, the DJIA was trading near the absolute maximum 29528.0. However, the collapse of the DJIA index crossed out almost all of its 3-year growth.

Donald Trump for 30 days banned the entry into the United States from Europe due to the coronavirus, which raised new concerns about the economic impact of the coronavirus.

A number of the world's largest central banks have taken a sharp decline in interest rates, with the Fed and the Bank of England cutting interest rates by 50 bp at once during their extraordinary meetings.

“Coronavirus poses a growing risk for economic activity”, the US Central Bank said.

Next week (March 17 - 18), the Fed will hold its next scheduled meeting. Investors and economists believe that the Fed will again lower the interest rate at this meeting, dropping it by another 50 bp to the level of 0.75%. Last week, when the Fed unexpectedly cut the rate by 0.50%, Donald Trump urged the Fed to lower it to zero.

Such a decision by the Fed could support the US stock market. However, to say that the worst is over is still too early. The spread of coronavirus in the world does not stop, covering all new regions.

The market is dominated by pessimistic sentiment, which can again bring down stock indices to new local lows.

At the beginning of today's European session, the DJIA is trading near the level of 22200.0, trying to adjust to the area above the level of 22520.0 (Fibonacci level 23.6% of the correction to the DJIA growth wave, which began in February 2016 from 15500.0). But you should still refrain from shopping.

A further index decline to the support levels 20850.0 (Fibonacci level 61.8%), 20400.0 (local lows and ЕМА144 on the monthly chart), 19700.0 (EMA200 on the monthly chart) is not ruled out.

The first signal for DJIA purchases may be its growth into a zone above the resistance levels 24150.0 (ЕМА200 on the weekly chart and the Fibonacci level 38.2%), 24400.0 (ЕМА200 on the 1-hour chart).

In case of negative developments, a breakdown of the support level of 19700.0 can break the DJIA long-term bullish trend.

Support Levels: 20850.0, 20400.0, 19700.0

Resistance Levels: 22520.0, 24150.0, 24400.0, 25200.0, 26220.0, 27200.0, 28160.0, 28630.0, 28840.0, 29528.0



Trading Scenarios

Buy Stop 22600.0. Stop-Loss 21600.0. Take-Profit 24150.0, 24400.0, 25200.0, 26220.0, 27200.0

Sell Stop 21600.0. Stop-Loss 22600.0. Take-Profit 20850.0, 20400.0, 19700.0

[/B]

 

[TifiaFX]

Brent: fall continues

16/03/2020

Having exceeded the limit of restrictions in the electronic trading system by 5%, at the opening of the trading day on Monday, futures for the US S&P 500 index fell to around 2568.0. Probably, at the opening of the American trading session, US stock indices will also begin with a sharp drop.

Last Sunday, the Fed held another emergency meeting and cut rates, this time by 100 bp, to a range of 0% - 0.25%, and also announced the allocation of $ 700 billion for the purchase of US government bonds and securities with a mortgage cover.

Global stock indices also continued to decline on Monday. The Australian S&P/ASX 200 fell by a record 9.7%, ending the session about 30% below the peak reached less than a month ago.

The British FTSE 100 in London fell another 7.5% after falling at the opening of electronic trading on Monday by 5%, the European Stoxx Europe 600 at the opening of trading fell by 4.7%. Indices of Hong Kong, Shanghai, South Korea and Japan fell by more than 3%.

Investors no longer pay attention to the Fed and are waiting for the actions of the federal authorities - more serious support to the economy. In the US, government measures may include tax cuts, direct payments to households, earmarked funding, increased federal spending, and other measures.

According to Jerome Powell, Chairman of the US Federal Reserve System, when the Fed decided to lower the rate last Sunday, one of the factors that influenced the central bank’s decision to soften its monetary policy was a sharp drop in oil prices.

WTI oil futures are trading at the beginning of today's European session at a price below $ 30.00 per barrel. Brent oil contracts also traded lower.

Oil market analysts believe that the unexpected increase in oil production due to the severance of partnership between Russia and OPEC, as well as the escalation of the price war between Russia and Saudi Arabia, will increase pressure on quotes, which threatens to reduce them further.

Last week, Saudi Arabia offered buyers from Europe some grades of oil at a price of $25 per barrel.

Brent crude declined on Monday to around 30.50. Probably, the fall in prices may continue.

At the beginning of today's European session, Brent crude is trading at $30.60 a barrel.

Technical indicators OsMA and Stochastic are on the side of the sellers on the 4-hour, daily, weekly, monthly charts, signaling the likelihood of a further price decline.

If the decline continues, then very soon it will be possible to see Brent oil near the price level of $27.00 per barrel. So low oil has not been traded since the end of January 2016, when it reached local multi-year lows.

In an alternative scenario, if the correction starts and after the breakdown of the local resistance level of 40.00 (EMA200 on the 1-hour chart), prices will rise to recent lows of 46.00 - 50.00 dollars per barrel. But only a breakdown of the key resistance level of 60.00 (EMA200 on the daily chart) will resume the bullish trend. Below this level of resistance, long-term negative dynamics prevail. Short positions are preferred.

Support levels: 30.00, 29.00, 28.00, 27.00

Resistance levels: 40.00, 46.00, 50.00, 53.50, 54.30, 56.90, 58.50, 60.00, 62.00



Trading Recommendations

Sell by market. Stop-Loss 33.60. Take-Profit 30.00, 29.00, 28.00, 27.00

Buy Stop 33.60. Stop-Loss 29.90. Take-Profit 40.00, 46.00, 50.00, 53.50, 54.30, 56.90, 58.50, 60.00, 61.00

 

[TifiaFX]

AUD/USD: we expect further fall of the pair

17/03/2020

The pair AUD / USD updated on Tuesday the almost 12-year low, which is near the level of 0.6010, and continues to decline in the first half of the trading day.

The Australian dollar continues to fall amid growing investor fears about the coronavirus pandemic and the strengthening of the US dollar, as well as expectations of the next reduction in the interest rate of the RBA at an emergency meeting on Thursday.

The RBA lowered interest rates during the March meeting and is expected to lower them again at an extraordinary meeting on Thursday March 19, while introducing additional measures. Investors expect further action from the RBA, given in the quotes lowering rates by 0.25% and QE.

At the same time, the US dollar is likely to continue to be in demand amid stress on global financial markets, despite another urgent Fed rate cut of 100 bps last Sunday. Investors are waiting for governments to strengthen fiscal stimulus measures.

In this regard, the fall of AUD / USD below 0.6000 is probably inevitable. Assuming a further fall in AUD / USD the next target will be the support level of 0.4780 (lows of 2001).

In the current situation and below resistance levels of 0.6360 (EMA200 on the 1-hour chart), 0.6435 (the recent 11-year low and the Fibonacci level 0% of the correction to the decline wave, which began in July 2014 from 0.9500), only short positions should be considered.

Support Levels: 0.6010, 0.5490

Resistance Levels: 0.6310, 0.6360, 0.6435, 0.6560, 0.6655, 0.6700, 0.6740, 0.6790



Trading Recommendations

Sell by market. Stop-Loss 0.6150. Take-Profit 0.5900, 0.5800, 0.5700, 0.5600, 0.5500

Buy Stop 0.6150. Stop-Loss 0.6000. Take-Profit 0.6310, 0.6360, 0.6435

 

[TifiaFX]

WTI: prices are falling rapidly

18/03/2020

At the end of today's Asian session, WTI crude oil broke through the psychologically important support level of 26.00, updating the 4-year low. At the beginning of the European session on Wednesday, WTI oil

was traded near $25.30 a barrel, the new local low since February 2016. This is 295% below the local maximum of October 2018, when WTI crude oil was traded near the level of 76.80 dollars per barrel. Over the past 3 incomplete months, WTI crude oil has fallen in price by 235%, collapsing from 61.25.

The aggravating investor pessimism associated with the coronavirus pandemic is pushing global stock indices and commodity prices, including oil, towards multi-year lows.

According to media reports, Saudi Aramco confirmed the intention of Saudi Arabia to increase production to a maximum level of 12 million barrels per day. Last week, Saudi Arabia offered buyers from Europe some grades of oil at a price of $25 per barrel. An increase in production a week earlier was also reported in Kuwait and Iraq. Russia also intends to increase oil production from April, when the deal between Russia and OPEC finally ceases to operate, Bloomberg reported.

Most likely, oil market participants are selling oil futures, given in quotes the upcoming sharp increase in supply. It is possible that oil may continue to decline until the price "finds" new levels of support.

Today, oil market participants will pay attention to the publication (at 14:30 GMT) of the weekly data of the Energy Information Administration (EIA) of the US Department of Energy. The data is expected to indicate an increase of 3.256 mln barrels of oil in the US last week after an increase of 7.664 mln barrels in the previous weekly reporting period. This will only increase pressure on oil quotes.

A stronger dollar is also a negative factor for oil prices.

The DXY dollar index, which reflects the value of the US dollar against a basket of 6 other major currencies, is at 100.15 in the first half of today's trading day, near an almost 3-year high.

A strong negative impulse prevails, pushing oil quotes down. In the same time,

the most cautious investors are likely to prefer to stay out of the heavily oversold market for now. But for those who want to take a chance, as always - our trading recommendations:



Trading Recommendations [/b]

Sell by market. Stop-Loss 34.10. Take-Profit 25.00, 24.00, 23.00, 20.00

Buy Stop 34.10. Stop-Loss 24.90. Take-Profit 36.20, 42.15, 43.00

 

[TifiaFX]

USD/CAD: strong positive momentum

19/03/2020

Given the strengthening US dollar, as well as expectations of a further drop in oil prices, the USD / CAD pair, which reached on Thursday a new high since February 2016 near 1.4668, is likely to maintain positive momentum, at least this week.

Last Friday, the Bank of Canada unexpectedly lowered its key interest rate by 0.50% to 0.75%.

The Bank of Canada said that "lowering the key rate between meetings is necessary due to the coronavirus pandemic, falling oil prices". At the same time, the Bank of Canada has confirmed that it is ready to continue to adjust the monetary policy, "if necessary".

Speaking on Wednesday at a joint press conference with Finance Minister Bill Morneau, Bank of Canada head Stephen Poloz said he did not rule out the possibility of another urgent cut in the key interest rate or any other measures aimed at protecting the economy from the effects of the coronavirus pandemic.

Thus, it cannot be ruled out that before the end of this week the Bank of Canada will again lower its interest rate, bringing it as close as possible to zero.

At the same time, the US dollar continues to strengthen against other major currencies, taking advantage of the status of a protective asset against the backdrop of the coronavirus pandemic. And, the demand for the dollar is likely to continue for the time being, despite the energetic actions of the Fed and the White House aimed at supporting the US economy and weakening the dollar.

Above the short-term support level of 1.4000 (EMA200 on the 1-hour chart), only long positions should be considered.

Despite being overbought, in the event of a breakdown of the local resistance level of 1.4665, USD / CAD growth is likely to continue.

Support Levels: 1.4370, 1.4300, 1.4200, 1.4100, 1.400, 1.3790, 1.3660, 1.3560, 1.3520, 1.3380, 1.3330, 1.3300

Resistance Levels: 1.4600, 1.4665, 1.4700



Trading Scenarios

Sell Stop 1.4360. Stop-Loss 1.4520. Take-Profit 1.4300, 1.4200, 1.4100, 1.400, 1.3790, 1.3660, 1.3560, 1.3520, 1.3380, 1.3330, 1.3300

Buy Stop 1.4675. Stop-Loss 1.4360. Take-Profit 1.4700, 1.4800, 1.4900, 1.5000, 1.6000

 

[TifiaFX]

EUR/USD: negative dynamics

03/20/2020

Despite the aggressive and concerted actions of the world's largest central banks, a turning point on global stock exchanges has not yet occurred.

Last Thursday, the two largest world central banks (the RB of Australia and the Bank of England) again held extraordinary meetings and relaxed their monetary policies. For the second time this month, the RBA lowered its key rate, bringing it to a record low of 0.25% from 0.50%, and launched a quantitative easing program, including in the form of lending to the banking system for at least 90 billion Australian dollars. Earlier, the country's finance minister, Josh Fridenberg, announced additional support for small businesses in the amount of 15 billion Australian dollars.

The Bank of England also took additional extraordinary measures yesterday, in the form of lowering the interest rate to 0.1% (from 0.25%) and announcing additional quantitative easing measures in the form of bond purchases worth £ 200 billion. Thus, the total volume of purchases of bonds will be 645 billion pounds.

The European Central Bank, for its part, also strengthened support for the European economy by presenting on Wednesday a new program for the purchase of European bonds in the amount of 750 billion euros in addition to the two ongoing quantitative easing programs - a regular monthly purchase of assets in the amount of 20 billion euros and announced last week “antivirus” tranche of purchases with a budget of 120 billion euros to be spent before the start of summer.

The US Federal Reserve said Thursday that it would provide billions of dollars to other central banks with a dollar deficit at a rate close to zero.

Nevertheless, investors are still in a state of shock, and the situation with coronavirus is deteriorating.

It is too early to speak about a reversal of the negative trend in the markets. This fully applies to the EUR / USD pair. During today's Asian session, EUR / USD strengthened by attempting to break through the local resistance level of 1.0785 (February lows). However, with the start of the European session, the decline in EUR / USD resumed. A breakthrough of the local support level of 1.0655 (yesterday and 3-year lows) will signal the likelihood of a further decline in EUR / USD.

In an alternative scenario, a signal for purchases may be a break of EUR / USD into the zone above the short-term resistance level of 1.1010 (ЕМА200 on the 1-hour chart).

Support Levels: 1.0655, 1.0600, 1.0580, 1.0530

Resistance Levels: 1.0785, 1.0830, 1.0900, 1.1010, 1.1050, 1.1100



Trading Recommendations

Sell by market. Stop-Loss 1.0840. Take-Profit 1.0700, 1.0830, 1.0900, 1.1010, 1.1050, 1.1100

Buy Stop 1.0840. Stop-Loss 1.0770. Take-Profit 1.0900, 1.1010, 1.1050, 1.1100

 

[TifiaFX]

S&P 500: fundamental background is negative

23/03/2020

Having completed the past week with the largest losses since October 2008, futures on major US stock indexes began a new trading week on Monday with a gap down about 3%. Investors are under stress amid the coronavirus pandemic and the fall of the global economy.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average, S&P 500 and Nasdaq Composite fell from record highs reached in February by about 30%. At the same time, the Dow Jones Industrial Average, S&P 500 indices returned to levels of more than 3 years ago (November - December 2016).

At the same time, the fall of stock indices occurs against the background of a sharp decline in oil prices, which is caused both by expectations of a sharp drop in world oil consumption due to the coronavirus and fears about a price war between the world's largest oil producing countries.

At the same time, the dollar continues to enjoy strong demand, strengthening its position in the foreign exchange market. The DXY dollar index rose 5% last week, and continues to rise on Monday. At the beginning of today's European session, the DXY dollar index futures were traded near 103.59, 9 points above the closing price last Friday.

Nevertheless, at the reached critical levels, a local bottom may form, and further growth of indices is possible.

This point of view is supported by the technical aspect of our analysis. On the monthly chart, the S&P 500 futures reached a strategic long-term support level at around 2240.0, through which a 200-period moving average passes.

A growth into the zone above the resistance levels of 2520.0 (ЕМА200 on the 1-hour chart), 2600.0 (Fibonacci level 50% of the downward correction to the growth since February 2016 and the level of 1807.0) may be a signal for the beginning of the stock market recovery and further growth of the S&P 500.

At the same time, below the resistance levels of 2319.0 (ЕМА144 on the monthly chart), 2415.0 (Fibonacci level of 61.8%), only short positions should be considered.

The long-term reduction target is located at the support level of 1900.0 (February 2016 lows).

Downward prevailing amid strong negative fundamental background.

Support Levels: 2240.0, 2180.0, 2020.0, 1900.0, 1807.0

Resistance Levels: 2319.0, 2415.0, 2520.0, 2600.0, 2685.0



Trading Recommendations

Sell Stop 2180.0. Stop-Loss 2320.0. Goals 2100.0, 2020.0, 1900.0, 1807.0

Buy Stop 2320.0. Stop-Loss 2180.0. Goals 2415.0, 2520.0, 2600.0, 2685.0, 3020.0

 

[TifiaFX]

XAU/USD: positive dynamics of gold remains

24/03/2020

At the beginning of this month, having reached a new, more than 7-year high, near the mark of 1703.00, over the next 2 weeks the XAU / USD pair fell by 250 points (more than 17%), to the 1452.00 mark. Investors were forced to sell their gold reserves, hedging stock market transactions and covering margin stake requirements.

However, the growth of gold quotes seems to have resumed. Having bounced from the strong support levels of 1496.00 (ЕМА200 on the daily chart), 1484.00 (Fibonacci level 50% of the correction to the wave of decline since September 2011 and the mark of 1920.00), the XAU / USD has increased by 6.5% since the beginning of the week, today reaching an intraday maximum near the mark of 1611.00.

The aggressive stimulating actions of the Fed and the weakening of the dollar against this background contribute to the growth of gold quotes.

On Monday, the Fed announced new measures to stimulate the US economy and stabilize financial markets. Now the Fed intends to buy government bonds and securities issued by mortgage agencies if necessary in unlimited quantities. Over the past week, the Fed's balance sheet increased by $ 350 billion, to a record $ 4.7 trillion. According to CNBC, the Fed’s incentive measures are the most aggressive market intervention by the Fed since its inception.

After the Fed has approached the limit of its ability to support the economy, reducing its interest rates to almost zero and pouring billions of dollars into the financial system, investors are now waiting for no less strong action from the US government.

According to media reports, the US government is working on a large-scale package of incentive measures to help businesses and citizens. The amount of the package may exceed $ 1 trillion. However, last Sunday the US Senate did not reach an agreement on the rescue package, which includes assistance to companies and households.

Demand for gold and other protective assets will continue until the coronavirus epidemic declines, the global economy begins to recover, and the Fed does not think about tightening its monetary policy. And this is still very far away.

In the current situation, long positions are preferred. Above the short-term support levels of 1538.00 (EMA200 on the 1-hour chart), 1575.00 (EMA200 on the 4-hour chart), purchases look safe, and above the support level of 1496.00, the long-term positive dynamics of XAU / USD remains.

Support Levels: 1587.00, 1575.00, 1555.00, 1538.00, 1496.00, 1484.00, 1450.00

Resistance Levels: 1611.00, 1703.00, 1718.00



Trading Recommendations

Sell Stop 1550.00. Stop-Loss 1613.00. Take-Profit 1538.00, 1496.00, 1484.00, 1450.00

Buy "by the market". Stop-Loss 1550.00. Take-Profit 1611.00, 1703.00, 1718.00

 

[TifiaFX]

USD/JPY: investors are not yet ready to actively sell the dollar

25/03/2020

After the measures announced by the Fed last Monday, investors cheered up a bit and markets revived. The Fed launched the printing press at full capacity and poured billions of dollars into the financial system. Over the past week, the Fed's balance sheet increased by $ 350 billion, to a record $ 4.7 trillion.

Last Tuesday, US stock indices showed record growth. The Dow Jones Industrial Average grew by more than 11%, showing the largest single-day growth in almost 90 years. The S&P 500 gained 9.4%, and the Nasdaq Composite - 8.1%. On Wednesday, the growth of futures for US stock indexes continued in the first half of the trading day.

Nevertheless, despite the Fed’s aggressive stimulus measures, investors are not yet ready to actively sell the dollar, although this moment may come - abruptly and “as always”, unexpectedly.

The pair USD / JPY continues to trade in the range of the last 5 days (between support / resistance levels of 109.70 / 111.70). A summary of the views of Bank of Japan executives published Tuesday evening (23:50 GMT) states that “the consequences of a coronavirus pandemic can be long-lasting and significant”, and “the bank can take timely action as part of an emergency meeting”, if the need arises.

Last week (March 16), the Bank of Japan this time chose not to lower the key rate, leaving it at -0.1%, and the target level of yield on 10-year government bonds in Japan is about zero. The Bank of Japan said it would double ETF purchases to 12 trillion yen ($ 112 billion) a year, and raised the target level of corporate bonds on its balance sheet to 4.2 trillion yen from 3.2 trillion yen, and commercial paper to 3.2 trillion yen from 2.2 trillion yen.

The Bank of Japan also confirmed its intention to buy Japanese government bonds of 80 trillion yen per year (over the past year, he bought them of about 14 trillion yen).

Japanese stock index Nikkei Stock Average also rose on Tuesday by 8%, showing the largest percentage increase since October 2008.

In a quiet market, with the growth of the Nikkei Stock Average, the pair USD / JPY also usually grows. Nevertheless, in the current rapidly changing situation, it is probably still better to focus on technical analysis and on the breakdown of the levels and / or boundaries of the range formed in the last days (between support / resistance levels of 109.70 / 111.70).

Support Levels: 110.50, 110.15, 109.70, 109.25, 108.85, 108.50

Resistance Levels: 111.70, 112.20, 113.10



Trading Scenarios

Buy Stop 111.80. Stop Loss 109.20. Take-Profit 112.20, 113.10, 114.00, 115.00

Sell Stop 109.20. Stop Loss 111.80. Take-Profit 109.00, 108.85, 108.50, 107.00, 106.50, 105.00, 104.00, 103.00, 102.00

 

[TifiaFX]

WTI: pessimism keeps prices at multi-year lows

26/03/2020

Oil quotes remain under pressure. The pessimism of the oil market participants associated with the price war among the largest oil producers, the coronavirus pandemic and the slowdown in the global economy, and as a result - a decrease in oil demand, is pushing oil prices towards new multi-year lows.

Having broken through the key support level of 57.00 (EMA200 on the daily and weekly charts) in January, the price of WTI crude oil rushed down, updating the record for falling in March. The 4-year low at the psychologically important support level of 26.00 also could not resist, and the price fell last week to record lows near the mark of $ 20.00 per barrel.

The decline in WTI crude oil over the past 3 months has been 78% to date. Last week, a new anti-record was broken when WTI oil quotes fell to around $ 20.05 per barrel.

On Thursday, oil market participants will follow an emergency G20 summit where statements can be made regarding the price war between major oil producers. Investors still hope that the price war between leading oil exporters, including the United States, Russia and Saudi Arabia, will end soon.

This is a positive factor for oil quotes.

At the same time, quarantine measures taken in connection with the coronavirus pandemic, according to economists, can lead to a decrease in April of global oil demand by 18.7 million barrels per day. Such a large-scale drop in demand can outweigh any reduction in oil production, including a possible freeze or restriction of OPEC production, oil market analysts say.

Currently, a strong negative impulse prevails, holding oil quotes near multi-year lows.

The first timid signal for purchases may be a breakdown of the resistance level of 26.00 (EMA200 on the 1-hour chart and the recent 4-year low). In case of further growth and after the breakdown of the resistance level of 30.80 (Fibonacci level 23.6% of the upward correction to the fall from this year's highs near 65.65 to the local minimum of 20.05), the price may go towards the level of 52.00, through which EMA200 on the daily chart is currently passing.

However, short positions are preferred, which are best entered at the rebound from the nearest resistance zone near the levels of 26.00, 27.00, 28.00, 29.00, 30.00.

Support Levels: 23.00, 22.00, 21.00, 20.00

Resistance Levels: 26.00, 28.10, 30.80, 37.40, 42.80, 44.00, 48.20, 50.30, 52.00



Trading Recommendations

Sell by market. Sell-Limit 26.00, 27.00, 28.00. Stop-Loss 28.50. Take-Profit 23.00, 22.00, 21.00, 20.00

Buy Stop 28.20. Stop-Loss 25.80. Take-Profit 30.80, 37.40, 42.80, 44.00, 48.20, 50.30, 52.00

 

[TifiaFX]

S&P 500: talking about breaking a negative trend is prematurely

30/03/2020

Investors enthusiastically welcomed the efforts of the Fed and the US government to support the US economy and population - US stock indexes completed last week with a record increase. The S&P 500, for example, grew by 15%, to 2530.0, DJIA - by 17%, to 21540.0. For US stock indices, last week was the most successful since 1938.

Earlier in mid-March, the ECB leadership introduced a new program for the purchase of Eurobonds in the amount of 750 billion euros in addition to the two ongoing quantitative easing programs - a regular monthly purchase of assets worth 20 billion euros and the announced “antivirus” tranche of purchases with a budget of 120 billion euros, which to be spend before the start of summer. In total, the ECB will buy in sum 1,11 trillion euros in asset markets this year.

Participants in the financial market cannot but take into account the joint actions of world central banks, which sharply softened monetary policy, as well as the record filling of the financial market with cheap liquidity.

It’s too early to talk about the turning point in the negative trend in US and global stock indices. Investors are still under stress amid the coronavirus pandemic and the collapse of the global economy.

Nevertheless, the first signals appeared to resume purchases, which should not be ignored. On the 1-hour chart of the S&P 500, the price broke through an important short-term resistance level (EMA200) near 2500.0.

A return of the index to the zone above resistance levels of 3000.0 (ЕМА200 on the daily chart), 3020.0 (Fibonacci level 23.6% of the downward correction to the growth since February 2016 and from the level 1807.0) will indicate a resumption of the bull trend.

However, a breakdown of the support level of 2500.0 will be a signal for the sale of the S&P 500.

Support Levels: 2500.0, 2415.0, 2319.0, 2240.0, 2180.0, 2020.0, 1900.0, 1807.0

Resistance Levels: 2600.0, 2685.0, 2790.0, 2940.0, 3000.0, 3020.0



Trading Recommendations

Sell Stop 2465.0. Stop-Loss 2580.0. Goals 2415.0, 2319.0, 2240.0, 2180.0, 2020.0, 1900.0

Buy Stop 2580.0. Stop-Loss 2465.0. Goals 2600.0, 2685.0, 2790.0, 2940.0, 3000.0, 3020.0

 

[TifiaFX]

EUR/USD: further growth of the dollar is likely

31/03/2020

At the beginning of today's European session, EUR / USD is traded near 1.0965, through which an important short-term support level is passing (ЕМА200 on the 1-hour chart). The break of this support level may lead to an acceleration of the EUR / USD decline.

According to preliminary official data released on Tuesday, in March the annual inflation rate in the Eurozone was 0.7% versus 1.2% in February. The target inflation rate set by the ECB is just below 2%.

At the same time, the indicator of the mood of companies and consumers in the Eurozone in March showed the largest one-month drop in the entire history of observations against the background of the proliferation and tightening of measures aimed at containing the pandemic of the coronavirus.

Economists' forecasts regarding the GDP of two competing economies (the US and the Eurozone) speak in favor of the American economy and, as a result, in favor of the US assets and the dollar (economists suggest that Eurozone GDP will decrease by 3.6% in 2020 due to the effects of coronavirus on the economy , while US GDP this year will also decline, but less than Eurozone GDP, by 2.9%).

At the same time, the uncertainty is still too high, and the growth prospects of the global economy remain under the influence of downward risks, which also supports the dollar as a safe haven.

Despite the fact that in the near future an avalanche of dollar liquidity will pour into the financial system of the world (after the announcement of extraordinary incentive measures by the Fed and the US government), the dollar continues to be in demand. In the near future, its further growth is most likely, including in the EUR / USD pair.

Support Levels: 1.0900, 1.0830, 1.0785, 1.0655, 1.0600, 1.0580, 1.0530

Resistance Levels: 1.0965, 1.1000, 1.1050, 1.1090, 1.1145



Trading Recommendations

Sell by market. Stop-Loss 1.1010. Take-Profit 1.0900, 1.0830, 1.0785, 1.0655, 1.0600, 1.0580, 1.0530

Buy Stop 1.1010. Stop-Loss 1.0960. Take-Profit 1.1050, 1.1090, 1.1145