Forex Analysis by LiteForex

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USD/CAD: general analysis

Current trend
Last week, the USD/CAD pair was under pressure amid a growth in oil prices. The Canadian Dollar gained strong support when Saudi Energy Minister said the country would discuss measures aimed at stabilizing prices with other oil producers during a meeting in late September.
At the same time, Saudi Arabia boosted its oil output in July to a record 10.67 million barrels a day and lowered the pricing terms for Asian clients that is seen as a negative factor for the Canadian Dollar.

Support and resistance
Bollinger Bands on the 4-hour chart is moving down. MACD histogram remains in the negative zone, its volumes are falling and keeping. Stochastic is heading towards the border of the overbought zone.
Short positions seem preferable, but it is recommended to wait for clearer trading signals before placing your orders.
Support levels: 1.2948, 1.2935, 1.2922, 1.2912, 1.2901.
Resistance levels: 1.2974, 1.2988, 1.3199, 1.3002, 1.3016, 1.3061.

Trading tips
Short positions can be opened from the current levels with targets at 1.2925, 1.2915 and stop-loss at 1.2980. Validity – 1-3 days.
Long positions can be opened after the breakout of the level of 1.2980 with the target at 1.3010 and stop-loss at 1.2960. Validity – 2-4 days.

 

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NZD/USD: growth continues

Current trend
The pair continues growing amid significant weakening in the US Dollar. The American currency was pressured by poor data on Retail Sales and the GDP for the second quarter of the year. In addition, today’s data on the Consumer Price Index showed a zero inflation growth in July, which increased pressure on the Dollar due to falling probability of monetary policy tightening by the Fed until the end of the year.
Tomorrow attention needs to be paid to data on the labour market and Producer Price Indices in New Zealand, and to the FOMC Minutes in the US.

Support and resistance
In the medium-term, the pair is expected to continue growing towards the key resistance level at 0.7330, a breakout of which would open the way towards the levels of 0.7600, 0.7625.
Technical indicators suggest a growth continuation. MACD histogram is in the positive zone and its volumes are growing. Bollinger bands are directed up.
Support levels: 0.7230, 0.7175, 0.7150, 0.7020, 0.7000, 0.6955, 0.6900, 0.6750.
Resistance levels: 0.7300, 0.7330, 0.7415, 0.7450, 0.7500, 0.7565, 0.7600, 0.7625.

Trading tips
Long positions can be opened from current levels and from the levels of 0.7230, 0.7175 with the target at 0.7600 and stop-loss at 0.7135.

 

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EUR/USD: general review

Current trend
Today the pair is consolidating after a significant growth yesterday amid the publication of weak data in the US.
The Consumer Price Index in July grew by only 0.8%, which was worse than forecasts and increased doubts on the market regarding the possibility of monetary policy tightening by the Fed this year. In addition, the ZEW Survey – Economic Sentiment in the eurozone increased from -14.7 to 4.6 points, substantially exceeding forecasts, while the trade balance surplus rose from 24.6 billion to 29.9 billion Euro.

Support and resistance
On the hourly chart, the pair has formed a “triangle” patter, with the upper border at the level of 1.1283 and the lower at 1.1254.
RSI is trying to turn down in approximately the middle of its range.
The nearest support level is at 1.1254.
The nearest resistance level is at 1.1283.

Trading tips
Short positions can be opened from the level of 1.1254 with the target at 1.1200 and stop-loss at 1.1283.

 

[LiteForexNews]

EUR/JPY: general analysis

Current trend
In the Asian trading session, the Yen grew moderately against the Euro amid strong data on Japan’s trade balance. The country recorded a 513.5 billion surplus in July that is substantially above consensus of a 283.7 billion surplus.
Today the eurozone’s Consumer Price Index came out below market forecasts. The data showed that the index fell 0.6% in July after a 0.2% growth in June. This afternoon, dynamics in the pair can also be influenced by the publication of the ECB Monetary Policy Meeting Accounts, due at 1:30 pm (GMT+2).

Support and resistance
Bollinger Bands on the 4-hour chart is directed horizontally while the price range is widening. MACD remains at the zero line. Stochastic turned up near the border of the oversold zone.
The indicators recommend waiting for clearer trading signals.
Support levels: 112.99, 112.87, 112.74, 112.58.
Resistance levels: 113.27, 113.44, 113.62, 113.92, 114.01.

Trading tips
Long positions can be opened from the level of 113.25 with targets at 113.62, 113.90 and stop-loss at 112.95. Validity – 1 day.
Short positions can be opened from the level of 112.90 with the target at 112.40 and stop-loss at 113.20. Validity – 1 day.

 

[LiteForexNews]

EUR/USD: general review

Current trend
Yesterday the pair continued growing amid weakening in the US Dollar. The American currency is pressured by a low probability of an interest rate increase by the Fed this year as the latest FOMC Minutes showed a unanimous opinion of key committee members to leave the rate unchanged.
Today no important macroeconomic data that could affect dynamics in the pair is expected to be published.

Support and resistance
On the 4-hour chart, the pair is trading in the upper Bollinger band, while bands are directed up and the price range is narrowing. MACD histogram is in the positive zone and its volumes are growing. Stochastic is falling and approaching the border of the oversold zone.
The indicators recommend long positions.
Support levels: 1.1310, 1.1303, 1.1296, 1.1289, 1.1279, 1.1266, 1.1251.
Resistance levels: 1.1328, 1.1339, 1.1348, 1.1355, 1.1364, 1.1370.

Trading tips
Long positions can be opened from current prices with the target at 1.1350 and stop-loss at 1.1310. Validity – 1 day.
Short positions can be opened from the level of 1.1295 with the target at 1.1240 and stop-loss at 1.1315. Validity – 1-3 days.

 

[LiteForexNews]

XAU/USD: general analysis

Current trend
In the long term, the price of gold tends to grow due to several causes. Amid a fall in bond yields, the largest pension funds are seeking for alternative assets to invest in.
It should also be noted that a growth in US stock markets towards new highs raises concerns among investors and results in their decision to diversify risks.
The price of gold gains support from the Fed wait-and-see attitude regarding interest rate hikes. At the same time, political risk should not be underestimated as well. US presidential election is due in November, and now there is still a lot of uncertainty surrounding that.

Support and resistance
The nearest support level is at 1097.66.
The nearest resistance level is at 1112.97.

Trading tips
Long positions can be opened from the level of 1340.00 with the target at 1350.00 and stop-loss at 1333.00.

 

[LiteForexNews]

NZD/USD: general review

Current trend
The pair continues growing amid weakening in the US Dollar, which remains under pressure due to a fallen probability of monetary policy tightening by the American regulator in the nearest future. In addition, the pair was supported by today’s Reserve Bank of New Zealand President Graeme Wheeler speech in which he noted the effectiveness of pursued monetary policy and suggested it would be reasonable to tighten it in the near term.
This week, extra attention needs to be paid to data on the US GDP that is due on Friday. An expected fall in the index from 1.2% to 1.1% might substantially support the pair.

Support and resistance
On the daily chart, the pair is testing a strong resistance level at 0.7325.
Bollinger Bands is directed up. MACD histogram is in the positive zone and its volumes are growing. Stochastic turned up near the border of the overbought zone.
The indicators recommend long positions.
Support levels: 0.7278, 0.7240, 0.7201, 0.7179, 0.7143, 0.7110, 0.7064.
Resistance levels: 0.7325, 0.7339, 0.7367, 0.7401.

Trading tips
Long positions can be opened from current prices with targets at 0.7370, 0.7400 and stop-loss at 0.7240. Validity – 2-4 days.
Short positions can be opened from the level of 0.7200 with the target at 0.7140 and stop-loss at 0.7220. Validity – 2-4 days.

 

[LiteForexNews]

USD/JPY: general analysis

Current trend

Last Friday the USD/JPY pair showed a strong growth.
During the week, favorable statistics on the New Home Sales and Durable Goods Orders were released in the US, and the Gross Domestic Product Annualized came out in line with forecasts. On Friday Fed Chair Janet Yellen in her speech at the symposium in Jackson Hole supported further cautious tightening in US monetary policy. Japan, in its turn, posted relatively weak data on the Consumer Price Index.

Support and resistance

The pair broke out the upper line of Bollinger Bands. MACD histogram remains in the positive zone, its volumes are growing. Stochastic has entered the overbought zone and is moving sideways.
Support levels: 101.90, 101.60, 101.30, 101.00, 100.70, 100.30, 100.00.
Resistance levels: 102.25, 102.80.

Trading tips
Short positions can be opened from the level of 102.15 with targets at 101.60, 101.30 and stop-loss at 102.35.
Long positions can be opened from the level of 102.40 with the target at 102.80 and stop-loss at 102.25.
Validity – 1-3 days.

 

[LiteForexNews]

EUR/USD: general review

Current trend

The EUR/USD pair is trading within a downward trend. The instrument is being pressured by strengthening in the US Dollar amid expectations that the Fed will raise interest rates in September if macroeconomic indicators come out in line with Fed’s forecasts. This week is full of important macroeconomic releases that can have a strong impact on dynamics in the EUR/USD pair. This week’s key publication is data on the US labor market. Statistics on the Nonfarm Payrolls and Unemployment Rate are due on Friday. Favorable data will boost chances of an interest rate increase and allow the US Dollar to strengthen more against the Euro. Thus, short-term dynamics in the EUR/USD pair will be influenced by US macroeconomic statistics.

Support and resistance

MACD histogram on the 4-hour chart remains in the negative zone and its volumes are growing. The indicator is forming a sell signal. Bollinger bands are directed down, suggesting a downward trend continuation.
Support levels: 1.1160, 1.1110, 1.1048.
Resistance levels: 1.1205, 1.1267, 1.1310.

Trading tips

Short positions can be opened after the price consolidation below the level of 1.1160 with targets at 1.1110, 1.1048.
Long positions can be opened after the price consolidation above the level of 1.1205 with the target at 1.1267.

 

[LiteForexNews]

USD/CAD: general analysis

Current trend

The USD/CAD pair continues growing amid a fall in oil prices, which were pressured by data on US crude oil stocks. At the same time, it should be noted that though Canada’s economy showed a strong growth in July, it had no influence on dynamics in the pair. At present, further upward movement seems a likelier scenario amid expectations that the Fed will soon raise its interest rates.
Today the US Dollar can gain support in case of strong data for August on the ISM Manufacturing PMI and ISM Prices Paid.

Support and resistance

Bollinger Bands on the 4-hour chart is directed up while the price range is showing no changes. MACD is in the positive zone, its volumes remain high. Stochastic is approaching the border of the oversold zone.
According to the indicators, long positions seem preferable.
Support levels: 1.3090, 1.3076, 1.3049, 1.3028, 1.3001.
Resistance levels: 1.3128, 1.3140, 1.3151, 1.3176, 1.3198.

Trading tips

Long positions can be opened from the current level with targets at 1.3140, 1.3150 and stop-loss at 1.3090. Validity – 1-3 days.
Short Long positions can be opened from the level of 1.3155 with the target at 1.3100 and stop-loss at 1.3175. Validity – 2-4 days.

 

[LiteForexNews]

EUR/USD: general review

Current trend

Yesterday the pair substantially grew amid weakening in the US Dollar, which was pressured by poor data on the ISM Manufacturing PMI from the US. In August, the index fell from 52.6 points to 49.4 points while economists predicted a fall to only 52.0 points.

Today extra attention needs to be paid to data on the US labour market. According to forecasts, the Unemployment Rate will fall to 4.8% while the Nonfarm Payrolls will amount to 180 thousands. Data below forecasts might significantly pressure the Dollar, as it would decrease the chances of an interest rate hike by the Fed in September.
High volatility is expected on the market. Traders should refrain from opening new positions before the publication.

Support and resistance

The nearest support level: 1.1126.
The nearest resistance level: 1.1207.

Trading tips

Long positions can be opened from the level of 1.1207 with the target at 1.1255 and stop-loss at 1.1190.

 

[LiteForexNews]

EUR/USD: pair trades mixed

Current trend

The Euro is trying to grow during the morning session after sharp fluctuations last Friday amid the publication of data on the US labour market.
The US Labour Department reported nonfarm payrolls rose by 151 000 jobs in August, following a gain of 275 000 in July, and against market consensus of 180 000. The unemployment rate remained at 4.9% while a decline to 4.8% was expected.

Despite relatively weak data, market reactions were generally positive. The US economy is close to full employment, and a certain slowdown in hiring is a quite natural tendency. It should be noted that the report
had just a slight influence on assessments of rate hike chances. Markets see a 21% likelihood that the Fed would raise rates in September and a 50.6% probability of a hike in December.

Support and resistance

Bollinger Bands on the daily chart is falling while the price range is widening actively. MACD is keeping a weak sell signal and trying to consolidate below the zero line. Stochastic has left the oversold zone.
The indicators recommend waiting for clearer trading signals.

Support levels: 1.1148 (2 September low), 1.1130, 1.1122 (31 August low), 1.1100, 1.1083, 1.1070 (9 August low), 1.1045 (5 August low).
Resistance levels: 1.1171, 1.1200, 1.1233, 1.1270 (26 August level), 1.1300, 1.1321, 1.1365 (18 August high).

Trading tips

Long positions can be opened after the reversal and breakout of the level of 1.1171 with targets at 1.1233, 1.1270 and stop-loss at 1.1122. Validity – 2-4 days.
Short positions can be opened after the breakdown of the level of 1.1130 with targets at 1.1083, 1.1070, 1.1045 and stop-loss at 1.1200. Validity – 2-4 days.

 

[LiteForexNews]

EUR/USD: general review

Current trend

Yesterday the EUR/USD pair significantly grew and reached the level of 1.1262.
The pair was supported by weak data on the ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI in the US. In August, the index fell from 55.5 to 51.4 points while experts forecasted a decline to only 55.0 points. After the release, the probability of an interest rate hike in September fell to 9%.
Tomorrow extra attention needs to be paid to the ECB Interest Rate Decision. Experts anticipate an expansion in the stimulus program that might substantially pressure the Euro.

Support and resistance

On the 4-hour chart, the pair continues moving along a narrow sideway channel.
Technical indicators give contradicting signals. MACD histogram is in the positive zone and its volumes are growing. Stochastic is turning down in the overbought zone.
Support levels: 1.1230, 1.1180, 1.1125.
Resistance levels: 1.1270, 1.1305, 1.1340.

Trading tips

Long positions can be opened from the level of 1.1270 with the target at 1.1340 and stop-loss at 1.1250.
Short positions can be opened from the level of 1.1230 with the target at 1.1180 and stop-loss at 1.1250.

 

[LiteForexNews]

EUR/USD: general analysis

Current trend

Yesterday the EUR/USD pair was consolidating after its growth on Tuesday amid the publication of the US ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI. The index fell from 55.5 to 51.4 points in August against an expected decline to 55.0 points. Market participants now see only a 15% chance of an increase in interest rates at the Fed’s September meeting.
Today attention needs to be paid to ECB’s decision on interest rates and a press conference, in which ECB president will give commentaries regarding current state of the economy in the eurozone and prospects of monetary policy.

Support and resistance

The instrument continues trading within an upward channel; a bullish engulfing pattern has been formed. Stochastic and RSI lines are directed up suggesting a growth in the pair.
Support levels: 1.1230, 1.1180, 1.1135.
Resistance levels: 1.1300, 1.1370, 1.1430.

Trading tips

Long positions can be opened from the level of 1.1310 with the target at 1.1370 and stop-loss at 1.1280.
Short positions can be opened from the level of 1.1230 with the target at 1.1180 and stop-loss at 1.1250.

 

[LiteForexNews]

EUR/USD: general analysis

Current trend

Yesterday amid the publication of ECB decision on interest rates, EUR/USD volatility was high. Interest rates remained unchanged, and ECB President Mario Draghi said that it would be inappropriate to adopt any radical measures at this time. By the end of the trading session, the pair returned in the region of 1.1245-1.1260. Moreover, weak macroeconomic statistics were released today in Germany that could be a negative factor for the European currency.

Support and resistance

Bollinger Bands on the 4-hour chart is directed up while the price range is narrowing. MACD histogram is in the positive zone; its volumes remain quite high. Stochastic has turned up near the border of the oversold zone.
The indicators recommend waiting for clearer trading signals.
Support levels: 1.1261, 1.1255, 1.1245, 1.1233, 1.1219, 1.1209.
Resistance levels: 1.1276, 1.1284, 1.1294, 1.1307, 1.1312.

Trading tips

Long positions can be opened form the level of 1.1275 with the target at 1.1310 and stop-loss at 1.1255. Validity – 1-2 days.
Short positions can be opened form the level of 1.1255 with the target at 1.1230 and stop-loss at 1.1265. Validity – 1-2 days.

 

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UKBrent: technical analysis

UKBrent, D1

On the daily chart, the instrument failed to overcome a strong resistance level at 48.55. Bollinger Bands is about to turn down while its price range remains unchanged. MACD histogram is in the positive zone and its volumes are falling. Stochastic turned down near the border of the overbought zone.

UKBrent, H4

On the 4-hour chart, the instrument is trading in the lower Bollinger band while bands are horizontal. MACD histogram is about to cross over the zero line from above. Stochastic is growing and approaching the border of the overbought zone.

Key levels

Support levels: 47.73, 47.61, 47.51, 47.32, 47.11, 46.97, 46.81 (local low).
Resistance levels: 48.14, 48.43 (middle MA of Bollinger Bands), 48.68, 48.98, 49.18, 49.41.

Trading tips

Short positions can be opened from current prices with the target at 47.30 and stop-loss at 48.45. Validity – 1-2 days.
Long positions can be opened from the level of 48.45 with the target at 48.90 and stop-loss at 48.25. Validity – 1-2 days.

 

[LiteForexNews]

XAU/USD: general analysis

Current trend

The Federal Reserve will hold its September meeting next week, and now market volatility is likely to be increasing amid publications of data on the US economy. Today attention needs to be paid to statistics on jobless claims and retail sales. Economists expect the number of initial jobless claims to increase from 259,000 to 265,000 and the volume of retail sales to fall by 0.1%. If the indicators come out better than market consensus, the US Dollar is likely to get support that would lead to a fall in the pair.

Support and resistance

The nearest support level is at 1319.25.
The nearest resistance level is at 1325.66.

Trading tips

Short positions can be opened from the level of 1318.00 with the target at 1315.00 and stop-loss at 1320.00.

 

[LiteForexNews]

Brent: technical analysis

UKBrent, D1

On the daily chart, the instrument is trading in the lower Bollinger band. The indicator is directed down while the price range remains unchanged. MACD histogram is near the zero line. Stochastic entered the oversold zone.

UKBrent, H4

On the 4-hour chart, the instrument is testing the level of 44.25. Bollinger Bands is directed down while the price range is narrowing. MACD histogram is in the negative zone and its volumes are falling. Stochastic is trying to turn down.

Key levels

Support levels: 46.01, 45.83, 45.61 (local low), 45.44 (lower line of Bollinger Bands), 45.26.
Resistance levels: 46.70 (middle MA of Bollinger Bands), 46.91, 47.16, 47.42, 47.69, 47.91, 48.11.

Trading tips

Short positions can be opened from current prices with the target at 45.45 and stop-loss at 46.70. Validity – 1 day.
Long positions can be opened from the level of 46.80 with the target at 47.40 and stop-loss at 46.40. Validity – 1-2 days.

 

[LiteForexNews]

USD/CHF: Dollar strengthened

Current trend

The US Dollar strengthened against the majority of other currencies on the market last Friday amid the publication of positive data on consumer inflation in the US. On a year-to-year basis, the Consumer Price Index in August grew by 1.1% that was a 0.1% better than forecasts of economists. In July, inflation showed a 0.8% growth. The Consumer Price Index ex Food and Energy accelerated its growth from 2.2% to 2.3% while economists predicted no change in the index.

The data increased expectations of monetary policy tightening by the Fed in the nearest future. However, the probability of an interest rate hike this week remains very low and stands at only 9%. Markets are focused on the December meeting of the regulator.

Support and resistance

Bollinger Bands on the daily chart is moving down while the price range is narrowing. MACD is growing and giving a weak buy signal. Stochastic is growing as well and approaching the border of the overbought zone.
The indicators recommend waiting for clearer trading signals.

Support levels: 0.9783 (local low), 0.9762, 0.9737, 0.9709, 0.9689 (12 September low), 0.9668, 0.9648 (8 September low), 0.9630, 0.9600, 0.9570, 0.9535 (18 August low), 0.9520.
Resistance levels: 0.9800 (local high), 0.9816 (local high), 0.9842, 0.9864, 0.9883 (1 September high).

Trading tips

Long positions can be opened after the breakout of the level of 0.9800 (with the appropriate indicators signals) with targets at 0.9864, 0.9883 and stop-loss at 0.9762. Validity – 2-3 days.
Short positions can be opened after the breakdown of the level of 0.9762 with targets at 0.9689, 0.9668, 0.9648 and stop-loss at 0.9825. Validity – 2-3 days.

 

[LiteForexNews]

GBP/USD: review and forecast

Current trend

The pair continues falling amid strengthening in the US Dollar that remains supported by expectations of monetary policy tightening by the Fed before the end of the year. At the same time, the probability of an interest rate increase at the meeting, which is due this week, stands at only 10%. In addition, the Pound remains under pressure after the publication of week data on Retail Sales in the UK that showed a decline in August. The data returned worries that the British economy may slow down as the result of the decision to leave the EU.

Support and resistance

The price is heading towards a strong support level at 1.2900 that it has tested twice already.
On the 4-hour chart, the pair is falling towards the lower line of Bollinger Bands while bands are directed down.
Support levels: 1.2900, 1.2860.
Resistance levels: 1.3070, 1.3100, 1.3150, 1.3200.

Trading tips

Short positions can be opened from current prices with the target at 1.2900 and stop-loss at 1.3100.
Pending buy orders can be placed at the level of 1.2900 with the target at 1.3100 and stop-loss at 1.2850.