Forex Analysis by LiteForex

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EUR/USD: review and forecast

Current trend
Today the pair significantly fell after ECB President Draghi speech, in which he pointed out to long-term risks for the economy of the eurozone from a prolonged low pace of its growth. He also asserted that the regulator would do everything that is necessary in order to return inflation to its target levels.

In addition, the pair is pressured by approaching referendum in the UK. The country’s exit from the EU could lead to a crisis in the eurozone.
Today attention needs to be paid to data on the US labour market. Weak data might pressure the US Dollar.

Support and resistance
Technical indicators suggest a fall continuation. On the 4-hour chart, Bollinger bands turned horizontally. Stochastic is moving down.
Support levels: 1.1340, 1.1280, 1.1225.
Resistance levels: 1.1375, 1.1415, 1.1480.

Trading tips
Short positions can be opened after the price rebound from the level of 1.1375 with targets at 1.1280, 1.1225 and stop-loss at 1.1400, and after the price consolidation below the level of 1.1330 with targets at 1.1280, 1.1225 and stop-loss at 1.1360.
Long positions can be opened after the breakout of the level of 1.1415 with targets at 1.1480, 1.1530 and stop-loss at 1.1400.

 

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AUD/USD: Australian Dollar remains under pressure

Current trend
In the end of last week, the pair substantially declined amid some strengthening in the US Dollar, which was supported by strong data on the US labour market. The number of Initial Jobless Claims fell to 264 thousands, while economists predicted their growth to 270 thousands.

At the same time, today the Australian Dollar was supported by strong data on the Industrial Production in China. In May, the index grew by 6.0% that was 0.1% better than expectations of experts.

Support and resistance
Bollinger Bands on the daily chart is moving up while the price range is narrowing. MACD is turning down and forming a sell signal. Stochastic is falling having left the overbought zone.

The indicators recommend waiting for clearer trading signals.
Support levels: 0.7538 (local low), 0.7327, 0.7300, 0.7259, 0.7200 (2 June low), 0.7144 (24 May low), 0.7100 (psychologically important level).
Resistance levels: 0.7400 (local high), 0.7426, 0.7463, 0.7500 (9 June high), 0.7533, 0.7567 (3 May high).

Trading tips
Long positions can be opened after the price rebound from the level of 0.7358 (with the appropriate indicators signals) with targets at 0.7463, 0.7500 and stop-loss at 0.7327. Validity – 2-3 days.

Short positions can be opened after the breakdown of the level of 0.7327 with the target at 0.7200 and stop-loss at 0.7375. Validity – 2-3 days.

 

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GBP/USD: review and forecast

Current trend
On Monday the GBP/USD pair after a short upward correction resumed its downward trend. During the past week, the pair was falling but probably has not reached its lows yet and might continue moving further down. Today attention needs to be paid to statistics on key indices which have been released in the UK and data on retail sales due in the US.

Support and resistance
Bollinger Bands on the 4-hour chart is directed down. The price remains between the middle and the lower MAs. Further decline in the pair seems a likelier scenario.
Support levels: 1.4140, 1.4070.
Resistance levels: 1.4190, 1.4240, 1.4280, 1.4330, 1.4580.

Trading tips
Short positions can be opened below the current level with the target at 1.4070 and stop-loss at 1.4190.
Long positions can be opened above the level of 1.4280 with the target at 1.4330 and stop-loss at 1.4190.

 

[LiteForexNews]

EUR/USD: general review


Current trend
Today the pair is growing amid some weakening in the US Dollar that remains under pressure prior to the Fed Interest Rate Decision. According to forecasts, the rate will remain unchanged at 0.5% due to the publication of very weak data on the US labour market. Just to remind, the Nonfarm Payrolls came out at 38 thousands that was significantly worse than the forecasts.

At the same time, the Unemployment Rate fell to 4.7%, which signals that in the medium-term inflation is likely to accelerate and that would lead to tightening in monetary policy.

Support and resistance
On the hourly chart, the pair is trading in a narrow sideways channel between the levels of 1.1237 and 1.1189.
The RSI does not give a clear trading signal.
The nearest support levels is at 1.1189.
The nearest resistance level is at 1.1237.

Trading tips
Long positions can be opened from the level of 1.1240 with the target at 1.1303 and stop-loss at 1.1189.

 

[LiteForexNews]

USD/CAD: general analysis

Current trend
The pair continues growing despite results of the Federal Reserve monetary policy meeting. The Regulator decided to keep its current monetary policy unchanged and noted in the Monetary Policy Statement that only one more rate increase should be expected this year. The Canadian Dollar came under pressure, as Governor of the Bank of Canada Stephen Poloz expressed concerns regarding the pace of economic growth in the country.
It should be noted that oil prices have a strong impact on dynamics in the pair, and if a downward correction in the oil market continues, the pair might get support.

Support and resistance
On the daily chart, the price broke out the middle MA of Bollinger Bands. The price range is widening that suggests the current trend is likely to continue. MACD is hovering around the zero line. Stochastic is in the overbought zone.
The indicators recommend long positions.
Support levels: 1.3002, 1.2978, 1.2951, 1.2909, 1.2871, 1.2834, 1.2786, 1.2730, 1.2692, 1.2663.
Resistance levels: 1.3093, 1.3122, 1.3168, 1.3186, 1.3237.

Trading tips
Long positions can be opened from the current level with the target at 1.3093 and stop-loss at 1.2951. Validity – 1-3 days.
Short positions can be opened from the level of 1.3122 with the target at 1.3002 and stop-loss at 1.3168. Validity – 1-2 days.

 

[LiteForexNews]

USD/JPY: pair is falling

Current trend
The pair continues falling amid increasing anxiety on the market due to an upcoming referendum on UK’s membership in the EU, which is forcing investors to switch into safe-haven assets, such as the Yen. In addition, the Yen was supported by the decision by the Bank of Japan not to expand its stimulus program despite low inflation and weak growth of the world economy.

The pair was also pressured by poor data from the US, where the Consumer Price Index in May grew by only 0.2% that was worse than expectations, while Initial Jobless Claims increased from 264 to 277 thousands, against forecasted 270 thousands.

Support and resistance
Bollinger Bands on the daily chart is moving down while the price range is narrowing. MACD is falling and giving a sell signal. Stochastic is trying to turn up near the border of the oversold zone.
The indicators recommend waiting for clearer trading signals.
Support levels: 104.34 (local low), 104.00, 103.74, 103.54 (local low).
Resistance levels: 104.82 (local high), 105.19, 105.54, 106.00, 106.39 (15 June high), 106.71, 107.25 (10 June high), 107.89 (7 June high), 108.22.

Trading tips
Long positions can be opened after the breakout of the level of 104.82 (with the appropriate indicators signals) with targets at 106.00, 106.39, 106.71 and stop-loss at 104.34. Validity – 2-3 days.
Short positions can be opened after the breakdown of the level of 104.00 with the target at 103.00 and stop-loss at 104.50. Validity – 2-3 days.

 

[LiteForexNews]

EUR/USD: pair continues growing

Current trend
At the end of the previous week, the Euro was gaining positions against the US Dollar, and today the pair opened with a substantial gap up.

Current dynamics is caused by weakness in the US Dollar coupled with growing demand for risky assets. In the UK, all Brexit referendum campaigns were suspended due to the murder of the Labour MP Jo Cox. As a result, new polling data showed a certain decline in chances of the UK’s exit from the EU.

On Friday the American currency came under pressure from macroeconomic statistics. In particular, the number of housing starts fell from 1.167 to 1.164 million in May that was, however, better than the forecast of 1.150 million. The number of building permits grew from 1.130 to 1.138 million in May against an expected rise to 1.150 million.

Support and resistance
Bollinger Bands on the daily chart is showing a moderate growth while the price range is still narrowing quite actively. MACD has turned up and started growing with a buy signal. Stochastic has reached the border of the overbought zone that suggests a downward correction might develop in the short term.
According to the indicators, long positions are preferable.

Support levels: 1.1348, 1.1300, 1.1255, 1.1231, 1.1200, 1.1179, 1.1128 (16 June low), 1.1100 (near 30 May low), 1.1057, 1.1000 (10 March level), 1.0966.
Resistance levels: 1.1400 (near 9 June highs), 1.1449, 1.1500 (4 May level), 1.1541, 1.1577, 1.1615 (3 may high).

Trading tips
Long positions can be opened after the level of 1.1400 is broken out (with appropriate indicators signals) with targets at 1.1500, 1.1541, 1.1577 and stop-loss at 1.1340. Validity – 1-2 days.
Short positions can be opened after the price turns down near the level of 1.1400 with the target at 1.1200 and stop-loss at 1.1450. Validity – 2-3 days.

 

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USD/JPY: продолжение снижения цены

Current trend

Demand for the Yen remains high amid difficulties and risks the global economy is facing. The American Dollar does not manage to show a strong growth being under pressure from mixed macroeconomic data, released in the US. As a result, the USD/JPY pair reached the key support level of 103.50.
Today market participants are following Fed Chair Janet Yellen’s Congressional Testimony, and later this week, attention needs to be paid to US labour market statistics and data on the Durable Goods Orders.

Support and resistance
Despite of an upward correction today, the price is likely to remain within a descending channel and head towards the key support at 101.00, which is the lowest level since 2013. It also should be noted that the price might start moving sideways within the range of 101.00-107.50.

According to technical indicators, the pair tends to continue its downward movement. MACD histogram is in the negative zone, and its volumes are growing. Bollinger Bands is directed up. The price remains above Tenkan-sen and Kijun-sen lines of Ichimoku clouds.

Support levels: 104.15, 103.50, 102.65, 102.05, 101.00, 100.30, 100.00, 99.70.
Resistance levels: 105.05, 105.90, 107.00, 107.50, 108.75, 109.30.

Trading tips
It is recommended to build up on your short position from the levels of 105.05, 107.00 with the target at 101.00 and stop-loss at 107.90.

 

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USD/CAD: flat trades in the pair

Current trend
The USD has significantly grown against the CAD at the closing session on Tuesday, after two-day decline, which led the price back to the local lows of June. Minor correction was caused by the domination of cautious sentiments in the market. Prior to the referendum on the UK’s membership in the EU, investors do not rush to open new positions, even despite some encouraging signals.
On Tuesday, the head of the US Fed, Mrs. Janet Yellen gave a speech before the Banking Committee in the Senate. As before, she has mentioned that the world economy is facing significant risks; China is facing economic difficulties and interest rate will depend on the economic situation. As long as economic situation remains ambiguous, the prospects of the interest rate increase in the USA in July are vague.

Levels of support and resistance

Resistance levels: 1.2800, 1.2829 (local highs of 20 June), 1.2861, 1.2900, 1.2962, 1.3000 (psychologically important level), 1.3037, 1.3100, 1.3143 (highs of 2 June), 1.3187 (highs of 24 May) and 1.3218.
Support levels: 1.2762 (local lows of 21 June), 1.2700, 1.2654 (lows of 8 June), 1.2600 (lows of 3 May).
On the daily chart the indicator “Bollinger bands” is declining. Price range is narrowing, indicating mixed movement in the market in the past few days. MACD indicator is declining, giving a weak sell signal. If the “bearish” trend continues, it is recommended to keep existing short positions. Stochastic Oscillator is going down too. However, the line of the indicator has almost reached the lowest in the oversold zone, which reduces chances of continuation of the downtrend in the short-term. It is advisable to wait until the indicator leaves oversold zone.

Индикатор “Полосы Боллинджера” на дневном графике демонстрирует снижение. Ценовой диапазон сужается, отражая разнонаправленный характер торгов, наблюдаемых в последние несколько дней. *Индикатор MACD снижается, сохраняя слабый сигнал на продажу. При сохранении текущего «медвежьего» сигнала рекомендуется удерживать имеющиеся короткие позиции. Осциллятор “Стохастик” сохраняет нисходящую направленность. Вместе с тем, линия индикатора уже практически достигла минимальных значений в области перепродаж, что существенно ограничивает перспективы развития нисходящего тренда в краткосрочной и перспективе. Следует дождаться выхода индикатора из области перепродаж.

Trading tips

Long positions can be opened if the price goes up above the level of 1.2800 and rebounds from this level as a support level. Take profit can be placed at the levels of 1.2900 1.2962 or 1.3000. Stop-loss - 1.2762. Forecast is valid for 2-3 days.
As an alternative scenario the “bearish” trend can resume after breakdown of the level of 1.2762. In this case, it is advisable to open short positions with the target of 1.2600 and stop-loss of 1.2800. Forecast is valid for 2-3 days.

 

[LiteForexNews]

XAG/USD: Technical analysis

XAG/USD, D1

On the daily chart the pair is traded near the upper band of the Bollinger indicator. The indicator is moving up and the price range is expanding. The price is above the moving average line of EMA50, EMA100 and EMA144. MACD histogram is in the positive area, its volumes are slightly decreasing. Stochastic is in the central area, at the border with the oversold area, and its lines are directed downwards.

XAG/USD, H4

On 4-hour chart the pair is traded in the lower band of the Bollinger indicator; the indicator is moving sideways, price range has narrowed. Moving average line EMA50 is above the price level, while EMA100 and EMA144 are below the price level. MACD histogram is entered to the negative zone and volumes are decreasing. Stochastic is in the neutral zone, its lines are directed upwards.

Key levels

Support levels: 16.35 (two-week lows), 16.92 ( EMA50), 17.09 (local lows).
Resistance levels: 17.60 (local highs), 17.84 (last month highs), 18.02 (upper limit of the Bollinger bands).

Trading tips

It is advisable to open short positions from the level of 17.09 with the targets of 16.69, 16.48 and stop-loss at 17.25. Long positions can be opened from the level of 17.52 with the targets of 17.84, 18.16 and stop-loss at 17.09. Forecast is valid for 3-5 days.

 

[LiteForexNews]

GBP/USD: general analysis

Current trend

Yesterday almost 52% of British people voted to leave the European Union, and the Pound crashed to its 30-year low. Moreover, the GBP/USD pair was under pressure from strong data on the number of initial jobless claims in the US. The indicator dropped more than expected from 277 to 259 thousands against the forecast of 270 thousands.
Today attention should be paid to statistics on durable goods orders in the US.

Support and resistance

On the 4-hour chart, the price did not managed to consolidate above the strong resistance level of 1.3902. The pair is trading below the lower MA of Bollinger Bands, but the price range is widening suggesting the current trend is likely to continue. MACD histogram is in the negative zone, and its volumes are growing; a strong sell signal has been formed. Stochastic has turned horizontally near the border of the oversold zone.

The indicators recommend short positions.

Support levels: 1.3655, 1.3356, 1.3229.
Resistance levels: 1.3778, 1.3902, 1.4013, 1.4169, 1.4287, 1.4424, 1.4561.

Trading tips

Short positions can be opened from the current level with targets at 1.3356, 1.3229 and stop-loss at 1.3902. Validity – 1-2 days.
Long positions can be opened from the level of 1.4013 with the target at 1.4424 and stop-loss at 1.3778. Validity – 1-2 days.

 

[LiteForexNews]

GBP/USD: review and forecast

Current trend
Yesterday the GBP/USD pair was growing and gained 250 points but then started correcting down and lost 150 points. There is a strong chance that descending movement will continue. Today the pair might be influenced by UK’s Q1 GDP data, due at 10:30 am (GMT+2).

Support and resistance
The price is moving down from the middle MA of Bollinger Bands to the lower one. The price range is narrowing. The price is likely to reach the lower MA and then turn up.
Support levels: 1.3364, 1.3300, 1.3260, 1.3150.
Resistance levels: 1.3470, 1.3585.

Trading tips
Short positions can be opened from the current level with the target at 1.3364 and stop-loss at 1.3470.
Pending buy orders can be placed at the level of 1.3364 with the target at 1.3470 and stop-loss at 1.3300.

 

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GBP/USD: review and forecast

Current trend

Since last Friday, the GDP/USD pair has been trading within a narrow range of 1.3250-1.3300. Today market participants will be following a press conference given by the Bank of England Governor Mark Carney. The Head of the Regulator will give commentaries regarding current economic conditions in the country which are likely to influence short-term dynamics in the pair.

Support and resistance

The price is in the region of the lower MA of Bollinger Bands, and its growth towards the middle and upper MAs seems a likelier scenario. The price range is slightly widening.
Support levels: 1.3225, 1.3220, 1.3150.
Resistance levels: 1.3260, 1.3310, 1.3380, 1.3400.

Trading tips

Pending buy orders can be placed at the level of 1.3225 with the target at 1.3310 and stop-loss at 1.3200.
Pending sell orders can be placed at the level of 1.3310 with the target at 1.3235 and stop-loss at 1.3330.

 

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USD/CAD: general analysis

Current trend

On Tuesday the US Dollar strengthened against the Canadian currency. Concerns about Brexit’s impact on the global economy result in higher demand for the US currency. Moreover, the USD/CAD pair gained support from a decline in oil prices.

Today dynamics in the pair might be influenced by statistics on trade balance, due both in the US and in Canada. Attention also needs to be paid to US ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI, as an expected index growth from 52.9 to 53.3 points might provide moderate support for the American currency.

Support and resistance

On the 4-hour chart, the price is trying to consolidate above the upper MA of Bollinger Bands. The indicator is directed horizontally while the price range is widening that suggests the current trend is likely to continue. MACD histogram is in the positive zone, and its volumes are growing. Stochastic is about to leave the overbought zone.
Long positions seem preferable, but it is recommended to wait for clearer trading signals before placing new orders.
Support levels: 1.2978, 1.2950, 1.2920, 1.2899, 1.2874, 1.2857, 1.2820.
Resistance levels: 1.3016, 1.3046, 1.3077, 1.3095.

Trading tips

Long positions can be opened from the current level with targets at 1.3046, 1.3077 and stop-loss at 1.2978. Validity – 1-2 days.
Short positions can be opened after the level of 1.2978 is broken down with the target at 1.2950 and stop-loss at 1.3046. Validity – 1-2 days.

 

[LiteForexNews]

GBP/USD: general analysis

Current trend

Yesterday the GBP/USD pair reached its new lows, having fallen to the level of 1.2796. The fall in the pair slowed down only amid the publication of data on US trade balance as trade deficit widened more than forecast.
Macroeconomic statistics, released today in the UK, were generally favorable for the national currency. Industrial production fell 0.5 percent in May compared to April that was, nevertheless, better than a projected drop of 0.9 percent. On the year, the indicator was 1.4 percent up against the forecast of 0.5 percent. The Halifax House Price Index grew 1.3 percent in May after a 0.9 percent growth in the previous month.

Data on the Employment Change is due today in the US. The indicator is expected to decline from 173 to 159 thousands that might negatively influence the US Dollar. Attention also needs to be paid to data on the Initial Jobless Claims. If the indicator exceeds the forecast of 270 thousands, the American currency is likely to come under pressure.

Support and resistance

On the daily chart, the pair is declining along the lower MA of Bollinger Bands. MACD histogram is in the negative zone, and its volumes are showing a sharp growth. Stochastic is in the oversold zone and moving along its border.
Support levels: 1.2900, 1.2800.
Resistance levels: 1.3010, 1.3120, 1.3290, 1.3440, 1.3675, 1.3880, 1.4220, 1.4609, 1.4770.

Trading tips

Long positions can be opened from the level of 1.3020 with the target at 1.3120 and stop-loss at 1.2990.
Short positions can be opened from the level of 1.2900 with the target at 1.2800 and stop-loss at 1.2930.
Validity – 1-3 days.

 

[LiteForexNews]

EUR/USD: general analysis

Current trend

Yesterday data on Germany’s industrial production and US initial jobless claims had almost no influence on the EUR/USD pair. Today market participants are waiting for data on US nonfarm payrolls and unemployment rate statistics for June. Friday’s employment report is expected to show nonfarm payrolls increased by 175,000 jobs from low May reading of 38,000. Unemployment rate is likely to be up to 4.8% from 4.7%.

Support and resistance

The pair is trading within a narrow range of 1.1050-1.1105. The market remains relatively calm ahead of US jobs report. Bollinger Bands is directed horizontally. MACD histogram is moving along the signal line in the negative zone.
Support levels: 1.1035, 1.0971, 1.0911.
Resistance levels: 1.1105, 1.1143, 1.1185.

Trading tips

Short positions can be opened below the level of 1.1035 with targets at 1.0971 and 1.0911.
Long positions can be opened above the level of 1.1143 with targets at 1.1185 and 1.1220.

 

[LiteForexNews]

USD/CAD: pair is growing

Current trend

The pair continued growing in the end of last week amid the publications of labour market data in the US and Canada. The American data showed a substantial strengthening of its labour market that supported the US Dollar. The number of Initial Jobless Claims fell to 254 thousands while the Nonfarm Payrolls increased to 287 thousands, against the previous figure of 11 thousands. At the same time, the Canadian Dollar was pressured by data on the Net Change in Employment, which fell by 0.7 thousands while economists predicted a growth of 13.8 thousands. However, the Participation Rate shrank from 65.7% to 65.5% that lead to a decline in the Unemployment Rate from 6.9% to 6.8%.

Support and resistance

Bollinger Bands on the daily chart is moving up while the price range is narrowing. MACD is growing and giving a weak buy signal. Stochastic is growing as well and approaching the overbought zone.
The indicators recommend waiting for clearer trading signals.
Support levels: 1.3020, 1.3000 (psychologically important level), 1.2962, 1.2930, 1.2876 (7 July low), 1.2831 (4 July low), 1.2800, 1.2762. 1.2700.
Resistance levels: 1.3064 (local high), 1.3100 (28 June high), 1.3143 (2 June high), 1.3187 (24 May high), 1.3218.

Trading tips

Long positions can be opened after the price consolidation above the level of 1.3100 with targets at 1.3218, 1.3250, 1.3300 and stop-loss at 1.3050. Validity – 2-3 days.
Short positions can be opened after the breakdown of the level of 1.3020 with targets at 1.2900, 1.2876 and stop-loss at 1.3070. Validity – 2-3 days.

 

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USD/JPY: pair is growing

Current trend

The pair continues growing amid weakening in the Yen. The Japanese currency was pressured by a victory in elections of Prime Minister Shinzo Abe who is an active supporter of an expansion in the economy stimulation program. Experts note that after the victory implementation of stimulus measures will become much easier.
At the same time, the Dollar was supported by strong data on the US labour market that was released last Friday. The Nonfarm Payrolls came out at 287 thousands, significantly exceeding expectations of 175 thousand jobs and the previous figure of 11 thousands.

Support and resistance

Bollinger Bands on the daily chart is moving down while the price range is narrowing. MACD is growing and giving a strong buy signal. Stochastic is growing as well and approaching the overbought zone.
The indicators recommend waiting for clearer trading signals.

Support levels: 102.00 (local low), 101.46, 100.57, 100.00 (8 July low), 99.00 (24 June low).
Resistance levels: 103.00 (local high), 103.39 (1 July high), 104.00, 104.82, 105.54, 106.39, 106.84 (24 June high), 107.25, 107.89 (7 June high).

Trading tips

Long positions can be opened after the breakout of the level of 103.39 with targets at 104.82, 105.54 and stop-loss at 102.50. Validity – 2-3 days.
Short positions can be opened after the price rebound from the level of 103.00 with targets at 100.57, 100.00 and stop-loss at 104.00. Validity – 2-3 days.

 

[LiteForexNews]

GBP/USD: review and forecast

Current trend

The British currency continues strengthening. Since the beginning of the week, the GBP/USD pair has gained back about 500 points. There is a good chance that the pair has already reached its lows after the results of the British referendum were released, and, therefore, might continue developing its upward trend.

Support and resistance

On the daily chart, the price remains between the lower and the middle MAs of Bollinger Bands and might continue moving up towards the middle one and reach the level of 1.3500 which is one of recent local highs.
Support levels: 1.3225, 1.3150, 1.3060, 1.2860.
Resistance levels: 1.3400, 1.3470, 1.3500, 1.3585.

Trading tips

Long positions can be opened from the current level with the target at 1.3500 and stop-loss at 1.3235.
Short positions can be opened from the level of 1.3235 with the target at 1.2860 and stop-loss at 1.3310.

 

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AUD/USD: review and forecast

Current trend

The AUD/USD pair has been moving up for two weeks already, and the dynamics is likely to continue. Since yesterday, the Australian Dollar has strengthened by about 70 points.
Today attention needs to be paid to data on the Initial Jobless Claims, due in the US at 14:30 pm (GMT+2). The indicator is expected to grow from 254,000 to 265,000 that might have a negative impact on the US currency.

Support and resistance

Bollinger Bands on the daily chart is directed up. The price is growing from the middle to the upper MA, and at present there is no indication that the price tends to reverse.
Support levels: 0.7600, 0.7550, 0.7540.
Resistance levels: 0.7650, 0.7690, 0.7720.

Trading tips

Long positions can be opened from the current level with the target at 0.7700 and stop-loss at 0.7600.
Pending sell orders can be placed at the level of 0.7700.