Dow 2007

[lurkerlurker]

crunching some figures off my own, and in regards to my own personal situation, i'm gearing up for the worst possbile scenario. Every penny i make is going to be put away for a rainy day. My situation is as follows

1. I have no debt at all.
2. Got myself a nice car paid for in full
3. Gonna buy a house soon, but not sure if i should wait or not to see if prices fall, but then again it could be more expensive to borrow. Only looking to borrow half the value of the property
4. Got other little business ventures on the go incase the market goes tits up, and i can't make money. Nothing big, but i've got enough of my fingers in a few pies to pull a living.
5. Got invesments in land etc abroad, once again, no debt.
6. Every penny i make is going in the sky rocket. My dream of getting a ferrari isn't the best thing to forfill if the economy is going to turn around.

Basiclly i want to make sure that i never have to work for someone else, and that i'll always be stood on my own two feet without depending on anyone but myself. If it means i can't be an ostentatious wideboy anymore then so be it...

Kevin, you're a sensible lad. Quite a few of us could learn a lot from you. I've just realised that my recent trading profits mean that I am more comfortably well off than ever before. I also have no debt. The ferrari may have to wait, and yes, we all have to give up being ostentatious wideboys eventually!

It is comforting to know that you are ahead of 95% of the country if the economy goes tits up though. I've had to tighten my own belt this year, but as I won't get into debt and don't use credit cards I've been quite comfortable while most people I know are getting squeezed by interest rates.

Bears, I think we can see more downside from here. The Dow couldn't even break 13,200 after the Fed cut rates. Surely 13,200 is the new "graveyard in the sky"? I don't think we will see 12,000 any time soon, if at all. Interesting the correlation shown on Prudent Bear, but I'm not convinced we'll see sub-1000 SPX any time soon.I am very annoyed at myself for choosing to short the Dow rather than the SPX the last few weeks - cost me about 20% of profits. I'm bullish again if we take out 13,550. Meanwhile, I'm looking into trading currencies from daily and 4h charts - I don't think I will be doing much Dow trading any time soon.

 

[Atilla]

When markets are wobbly the doomsayers of 2000-2003 said dow 5000 (especially after we had 911 in the middle.... ) Never happened... They said 1987 crash would lead to massive recession - never happened....
Come on guys you'll frighten the horses... :cheesy:

I'm not making light of it but it's not time for the black armbands just yet

Well I wasn't in either of those doomsayer boy bands. In all honesty.

I can add that I did not participate in the dot com bubble as it contradicted my good old fashioned economics training. I like to look for tangible assets in companies and when I just see intellectual rights and a lot of hype I stay well clear.

Regarding timing - I would concede that I was expecting all this last November imho. It never happened.

 

[Atilla]

crunching some figures off my own, and in regards to my own personal situation, i'm gearing up for the worst possbile scenario. Every penny i make is going to be put away for a rainy day. My situation is as follows

1. I have no debt at all.
2. Got myself a nice car paid for in full
3. Gonna buy a house soon, but not sure if i should wait or not to see if prices fall, but then again it could be more expensive to borrow. Only looking to borrow half the value of the property
4. Got other little business ventures on the go incase the market goes tits up, and i can't make money. Nothing big, but i've got enough of my fingers in a few pies to pull a living.
5. Got invesments in land etc abroad, once again, no debt.
6. Every penny i make is going in the sky rocket. My dream of getting a ferrari isn't the best thing to forfill if the economy is going to turn around.

Basiclly i want to make sure that i never have to work for someone else, and that i'll always be stood on my own two feet without depending on anyone but myself. If it means i can't be an ostentatious wideboy anymore then so be it...

You Ferrari desire is a little twisted for my tastes. I don't like to burst your balloon in the sky but what is so special about a Ferrari? It's just a piece of shaped metal. Veru low on the ground and most difficult car to get in and out of. Might be good on the open road but it sucks in traffic. Why not rent one for a month and see how you like it?

I'd be careful with property abroad. Exchange rate moves can wipe your gains out overnight.

Think of all those people who bought homes in Florida?

Buying property in the UK and sterling moves can work in your favour as opposed to other countries. Make sure you do your calculations well.

It is good that you diversify and have your fingers in more than one pie.

 

[fibonelli]

When markets are wobbly the doomsayers of 2000-2003 said dow 5000 (especially after we had 911 in the middle.... ) Never happened... They said 1987 crash would lead to massive recession - never happened....
Come on guys you'll frighten the horses... :cheesy:

I'm not making light of it but it's not time for the black armbands just yet

The Politburo aka PPT seem to dislike their mates getting a big smacking from the bears.

 

[shortorlong]

Fed cutting rates like that must have really pissed off all the $ holding institutions.

I reckon long term dollar will fall further and import inflation coupled with high unemployment. Miserable winter months upon us too. I'll continue to bang my drum about stagflation.

I guess currency falls must lag interest rate cuts as the dollar made some ground on GBP on Friday after 1:15 uk time

Be interested on your views for next week.

FWIW I expect the Nikkei to open up on Friday's close, get sold off a bit and end higher, just like the Dow on Friday. The extent of the rise will determine the bullishness or otherwise of the European markets. I expect I will be trying to go long tomorrow on the FTSE .. (watch it tank )

 

[Atilla]

I guess currency falls must lag interest rate cuts as the dollar made some ground on GBP on Friday after 1:15 uk time



FWIW I expect the Nikkei to open up on Friday's close, get sold off a bit and end higher, just like the Dow on Friday. The extent of the rise will determine the bullishness or otherwise of the European markets. I expect I will be trying to go long tomorrow on the FTSE .. (watch it tank )

The interest rate was cut to steady the sub-prime market and the financial institutions not the dollar imo.

The Yen carry trades are unwinding.

Good point re cable but I fear it will be short lived.

 

[Kevin21]

You Ferrari desire is a little twisted for my tastes. I don't like to burst your balloon in the sky but what is so special about a Ferrari? It's just a piece of shaped metal. Veru low on the ground and most difficult car to get in and out of. Might be good on the open road but it sucks in traffic. Why not rent one for a month and see how you like it?

I'd be careful with property abroad. Exchange rate moves can wipe your gains out overnight.

Think of all those people who bought homes in Florida?

Buying property in the UK and sterling moves can work in your favour as opposed to other countries. Make sure you do your calculations well.

It is good that you diversify and have your fingers in more than one pie.

The land i've bought abroad is a long term investment, i.e 15-20years. I own it outright and i'm just gonna forget about it for now. Anyway onto more important matters!

My ferrari wouldn't be used on the road (well maybe a little) I got my racing licence when i was 15 and started out racing mini's. My brother started his own business a few years ago as a car finance broker and made him a few quid, nothing ridculous, but enough to have a couple of toys. When he got porsche 911 GT3 we both started racing that in the GT3 series.

A ferrari isn't just some shaped metal. It's a work of art and is an enginering masterpiece. Ferrari is the only company that puts F1 technology straight into is production cars. For example in the Ferrari F430 you get the same e-differential that schumacer got in his f1 car. I've been lucky enough to drive all the ferrari's from the f355 onwards (except the enzo and the 599) through people i know from racing, my fav so far was the ferrari 360 challenge stradale. The feed back that you get when driving the car is emense. It literally as if it's an extention of your mind, body and soul. You can feel everything through finger tips with no sign of understeer, and when you reach the limit of grip you can feel the back end slide out and hold it perfectly, then just reel it back it - all due to e-differential. Not like lambos, that just kill you in the most horrific way when you go past the limit, which is due to their dim witted four wheel drive system. To understand you really have to come flying down a straight on track at 150mph and brake down to 30mph, while cycling down through six gears in F1 mode.

Another example of the F1 technology you get is the F1 gear box, again, the same as in their F1 cars, but the gear changes are a touch slower (150 milliseconds aposed to 120milliseconds). So that means that the gear box and F1 managment system declutches, orders up a burst of tourqe to the engine to sustain you through the shift, stiffens the rear suspension so the car doesn't squat when the gear is changed, changes the gear and declutches all in 150milliseconds.

I really could go on all day about everything that makes a ferrari a masterpeice of enginering... Here's here a couple of videos for you...

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=e59bO1m_vxE - btw the bmw m5 it races is BMW's most powerful sports car they've ever made...

Ferrari 360 CS (my fav) vs Porsche 911... He says it best at the end "if you want to go to a track and be entertained then buy the porsche, it's a very very good car. If you want to go to a track and be astonished, then you've got to have the ferrari..." - Clarkson.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-CnImIihIWs

 

[Atilla]

The land i've bought abroad is a long term investment, i.e 15-20years. I own it outright and i'm just gonna forget about it for now. Anyway onto more important matters!

My ferrari wouldn't be used on the road (well maybe a little) I got my racing licence when i was 15 and started out racing mini's. My brother started his own business a few years ago as a car finance broker and made him a few quid, nothing ridculous, but enough to have a couple of toys. When he got porsche 911 GT3 we both started racing that in the GT3 series.

A ferrari isn't just some shaped metal. It's a work of art and is an enginering masterpiece. Ferrari is the only company that puts F1 technology straight into is production cars. For example in the Ferrari F430 you get the same e-differential that schumacer got in his f1 car. I've been lucky enough to drive all the ferrari's from the f355 onwards (except the enzo and the 599) through people i know from racing, my fav so far was the ferrari 360 challenge stradale. The feed back that you get when driving the car is emense. It literally as if it's an extention of your mind, body and soul. You can feel everything through finger tips with no sign of understeer, and when you reach the limit of grip you can feel the back end slide out and hold it perfectly, then just reel it back it - all due to e-differential. Not like lambos, that just kill you in the most horrific way when you go past the limit, which is due to their dim witted four wheel drive system. To understand you really have to come flying down a straight on track at 150mph and brake down to 30mph, while cycling down through six gears in F1 mode.

Another example of the F1 technology you get is the F1 gear box, again, the same as in their F1 cars, but the gear changes are a touch slower (150 milliseconds aposed to 120milliseconds). So that means that the gear box and F1 managment system declutches, orders up a burst of tourqe to the engine to sustain you through the shift, stiffens the rear suspension so the car doesn't squat when the gear is changed, changes the gear and declutches all in 150milliseconds.

I really could go on all day about everything that makes a ferrari a masterpeice of enginering... Here's here a couple of videos for you...

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=e59bO1m_vxE - btw the bmw m5 it races is BMW's most powerful sports car they've ever made...

Ferrari 360 CS (my fav) vs Porsche 911...

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-CnImIihIWs

Watched the clips but all that noise and speed not my cup of tea at all. Sorry Kevin but all this information is wasted on me. Do drive carefuly though and remember to kill your speed and not hedgehogs.

I wish you every success in your ventures and life.

 

[2468steve]

Interesting posts guys....not that I'm bullish,far from it in fact,but has anyone considered a run back up to 13700.....with weekend press full of headlines of armageddon,the market has a habit of doing the least expected......

 

[laptop1]

I be looking to buy on a weak open for Monday, the plan is to test Fridays highs.

 

[Hook Shot]

Interesting posts guys....not that I'm bullish,far from it in fact,but has anyone considered a run back up to 13700.....with weekend press full of headlines of armageddon,the market has a habit of doing the least expected......

U R dead right to warn us of that poss agent 2468 ..... was thinking the same mi self
but I'm not that confident of it but built into the weeks gameplan. 700 is around +650 from here which would be nice ....might buy an old 928 s4

Lappy - I like your idea too since if it does not take out friday's high it looks like a one day wonder and we know what often happens with them.... trend resumes ...

 

[lurkerlurker]

Not too sure what is happening with the carry trade, but I have a buy order in for USDJPY at 115, target 118, stop 114.

 

[Hook Shot]

Dead cert

Not too sure what is happening with the carry trade, but I have a buy order in for USDJPY at 115, target 118, stop 114.

LL - got one for you if you are interested Asx futures (australia) has now retraced 38% of its decline( 5884ish) more or less and now is in/on overtime( in my book). So now looking for fizzle from here up to 900......then around... 6000ish. The rally will die like all the others globally and with a "kevinesque" hunger it's there for everyone to devour....

 

[lurkerlurker]

LL - got one for you if you are interested Asx futures (australia) has now retraced 38% of its decline( 5884ish) more or less and now is in/on overtime( in my book). So now looking for fizzle from here up to 900......then around... 6000ish. The rally will die like all the others globally and with a "kevinesque" hunger it's there for everyone to devour....

Interesting. I may take a look at that this evening. Not terribly sure about the Australian market, but perhaps I could just trade the chart. Speaking of which, I've just bought USDJPY at 114.8, looking for 116 with a stop of 30. Not much happening with that pair at the moment, so going away with stop and target in place. Moving stop to BE at +50 (we shouldn't see too much downside from 115.30 if we get up there).

 

[lurkerlurker]

Interesting. I may take a look at that this evening. Not terribly sure about the Australian market, but perhaps I could just trade the chart. Speaking of which, I've just bought USDJPY at 114.8, looking for 116 with a stop of 30. Not much happening with that pair at the moment, so going away with stop and target in place. Moving stop to BE at +50 (we shouldn't see too much downside from 115.30 if we get up there).

USDJPY stop moved to BE (114.8), target remains 116. Leaving this one unattended, will lock in some profits if we ever see 115.5.

 

[lurkerlurker]

USDJPY stop moved to BE (114.8), target remains 116. Leaving this one unattended, will lock in some profits if we ever see 115.5.

Stop at +20 (115.00), target remains 116. Leaving the rest of this unattended now. Perhaps trailing the stop above the low of the last 15M bar wasn't too wise, but at this stage we have the way clear to 116 and a retracement down to 115 would make me Wrong. (so at least lock in +20, which would give me a "free trade" for my next entry)

 

[lurkerlurker]

Stop at +20 (115.00), target remains 116. Leaving the rest of this unattended now. Perhaps trailing the stop above the low of the last 15M bar wasn't too wise, but at this stage we have the way clear to 116 and a retracement down to 115 would make me Wrong. (so at least lock in +20, which would give me a "free trade" for my next entry)

Stopped out for +20. Market never touched my initial BE. Wondering if I moved my stop too soon, but the target at 116 looks ambitious, so I am pleased to be flat. A good start to the week (also pleased to have closed my CS account and move elsewhere).

 

[Hook Shot]

Good Night Vienna or mega rally ?

Lappy - I like your idea too since if it does not take out friday's high it looks like a one day wonder and we know what often happens with them.... trend resumes ...

Dow desperately needs to post that break of friday's high around 168 zone else it's probly dead meat... an inside day is a possibility just to bore traders to death :cheesy:

But basically I'm on watch for that rally it really really needs (I'm not fully loaded yet) .. to keep the growlers at bay......

 

[Kevin21]

Trading YM at the moment and i'm bored stupid, only had two trades today...

 

[shortorlong]

Trading YM at the moment and i'm bored stupid, only had two trades today...

yeah, not worth the effort right now, I was short on the DAX, closed for one point, 'cause it was doing nothing but threatening to go higher faster
I think traders probably want to sell off but they can't commit with the FED lurking in the background ready to push the button.