Dow 2007

[Hook Shot]

You can never get too much of this one......

Things must be getting bad if Cramer is panicking...watch this video,I think he may be having a breakdown......Nurse,tranquilizers please !!...

http://www.cnbc.com/id/15840232?video=452808336

Cheers again Steve

Cramer - x-Goldmans, Goldman's and Treasury/Fed joined at the hip..... just a thought

 

[2468steve]

Cheers again Steve

Cramer - x-Goldmans, Goldman's and Treasury/Fed joined at the hip..... just a thought

HS,
a realistic and probable thought m8......after all the Fed is not a government entity but an independant bank with shareholders.These shareholders consist of the biggest US banking names....Goldman..Merill Lynch...JPMorgan etc....There is no way the Fed are going to let these institutions go down the pan and the lowering of discount rates today emphasizes this.This only benefits the banks borrowing from the Fed...it doesn't help mortgages,consuners etc....They are all members of the same club...the big but in all this though is that they'd be quite prepared to see the other financial corporations...the mortgage lenders like American Homes,Countrywide join the others like NFI,New Cap etc in going bust...the smaller banks and finance houses also....the non members of the club....
Once the dust settles on this credit crunch those small guys in the mortgage and banking services will either be bust or have crippled balance sheets....then the big fish(members) will swallow them up,take their market share and customers...all on the dirt cheap.....
A brilliant wheeze created by the Fed for their mates(shareholders)...Goldmans,JPMorgan etc will end up with more market share,no competition,fatter profits...and it will cost them next to nowt...Brilliant scam...

Interestingly Countrywide Financial today announced they want to move all their mortgage book under the umbrella of their banking arm...this will then allow them to take advantage of the reduction in the discount rate,which as I said earlier only applies to banks...Thus they may be able to still offer competitive credit,without jepordizing their existing mortgage business...of course this depends on whether the Members Club allows the move...no doubt they'd rather feed on the carcass of a bust Countrywide....

Thats my conspirecy theory anyway......

 

[Hook Shot]

Wow.....!!!!!

HS,
a realistic and probable thought m8......after all the Fed is not a government entity but an independant bank with shareholders.These shareholders consist of the biggest US banking names....Goldman..Merill Lynch...JPMorgan etc....There is no way the Fed are going to let these institutions go down the pan and the lowering of discount rates today emphasizes this.This only benefits the banks borrowing from the Fed...it doesn't help mortgages,consuners etc....They are all members of the same club...the big but in all this though is that they'd be quite prepared to see the other financial corporations...the mortgage lenders like American Homes,Countrywide join the others like NFI,New Cap etc in going bust...the smaller banks and finance houses also....the non members of the club....
Once the dust settles on this credit crunch those small guys in the mortgage and banking services will either be bust or have crippled balance sheets....then the big fish(members) will swallow them up,take their market share and customers...all on the dirt cheap.....
A brilliant wheeze created by the Fed for their mates(shareholders)...Goldmans,JPMorgan etc will end up with more market share,no competition,fatter profits...and it will cost them next to nowt...Brilliant scam...

Interestingly Countrywide Financial today announced they want to move all their mortgage book under the umbrella of their banking arm...this will then allow them to take advantage of the reduction in the discount rate,which as I said earlier only applies to banks...Thus they may be able to still offer competitive credit,without jepordizing their existing mortgage business...of course this depends on whether the Members Club allows the move...no doubt they'd rather feed on the carcass of a bust Countrywide....

Thats my conspirecy theory anyway......

I was just referring to fact that Fmr Tres Sec Bob Rubin and current Treasury Sec Paulson were both at Goldman's... It's unlikely that a treasury and the central bank would not have close ties ...Ergo Goldman-fed/treasury link.....

You've blown my mind with this stuff..... interesting theory!

Cheers Steve

 

[2468steve]

I was just referring to fact that Fmr Tres Sec Bob Rubin and current Treasury Sec Paulson were both at Goldman's... It's unlikely that a treasury and the central bank would not have close ties ...Ergo Goldman-fed/treasury link.....

You've blown my mind with this stuff..... interesting theory!

Cheers Steve

Morning HS,
parts of my post are theory,in particular the winners/losers in a credit crunch....some are fact..

http://www.apfn.org/apfn/reserve.htm


http://www.geocities.com/northstarzone/FED.html
http://www.federalreserve.gov/generalinfo/faq/faqfrs.htm#5

cheers

 

[shortorlong]

Morning HS,
parts of my post are theory,in particular the winners/losers in a credit crunch....some are fact..

http://www.apfn.org/apfn/reserve.htm

http://www.geocities.com/northstarzone/FED.html
http://www.federalreserve.gov/generalinfo/faq/faqfrs.htm#5

cheers

interesting stuff .. but it doesn't seem likely that those in power are likely to change all this any time soon .. so the banks will keep lending , the consumers will continue to accumulate debt, the value of paper will continue to decline .. Does this not mean that the dow will continue to rise? (the companies may not have more real value but the currency slide means you need more dollars/pounds to buy those shares).

 

[firewalker99]

role on the recession I can tell you now that we're gonna have a massive recession because i'm just about to buy my first house....

This ain't no recession - just a bit of summer flu IMO.

Once people start talking that they are afraid of a recession, it'll already be too late.
What we need to realize is that a deflationary depression is the real danger and that the real estate bubble is a structural problem of the economy, not a conjunctural. :|

 

[Pat494]

I hear from contacts that it is impossible for foreigners to own property in Thailand. Not such a bad rule when you come to think of it:-
1. Slows immigration - only to rented apartments.
2.Is not so prone to foreign market crashes as in the US.
3. local housing is a lot cheaper for local inhabitants too.
4. huge areas of Scotland are apparently owned by absentee foreign landlords.
I dislike nationalism generally but..........

 

[Kevin21]

I hear from contacts that it is impossible for foreigners to own property in Thailand. Not such a bad rule when you come to think of it:-
1. Slows immigration - only to rented apartments.
2.Is not so prone to foreign market crashes as in the US.
3. local housing is a lot cheaper for local inhabitants too.
4. huge areas of Scotland are apparently owned by absentee foreign landlords.
I dislike nationalism generally but..........

It is, but i'm half thai and have a thai passport. I've been buying up acre's for 4k a pop in prime locations :cheesy:

One day i will own the streets i walk down.

 

[lurkerlurker]

It is, but i'm half thai and have a thai passport. I've been buying up acre's for 4k a pop in prime locations :cheesy:

One day i will own the streets i walk down.

Very very clever Kevin - good luck with that.

 

[Hook Shot]

Very very clever Kevin - good luck with that.

Kev's buying cheap land in Thailand maybe he should become a man city Supporter ?
What a change "Frank Sinatra" has brought to the Blues.

Seriously, others might want to look at Zimbabwe for "blood in the streets" type commercial opps... Okay it's not politically correct perhaps but new fortunes will be made in Zim in the not too distant future.... :idea:

 

[Kevin21]

Kev's buying cheap land in Thailand maybe he should become a man city Supporter ?
What a change "Frank Sinatra" has brought to the Blues.

Seriously, others might want to look at Zimbabwe for "blood in the streets" type commercial opps... Okay it's not politically correct perhaps but new fortunes will be made in Zim in the not too distant future.... :idea:

bolloxs to being politically correct... if there's money to made then i'm game. The west is just living on past glory...

 

[lurkerlurker]

Kev's buying cheap land in Thailand maybe he should become a man city Supporter ?
What a change "Frank Sinatra" has brought to the Blues.

Seriously, others might want to look at Zimbabwe for "blood in the streets" type commercial opps... Okay it's not politically correct perhaps but new fortunes will be made in Zim in the not too distant future.... :idea:

If I recall, the London and Rhodesia Mining and Land Company were going to offer some sort of listed investment fund specifically to concentrate on commercial opportunities in Zimbabwe and Zambia.

 

[Hook Shot]

If I recall, the London and Rhodesia Mining and Land Company were going to offer some sort of listed investment fund specifically to concentrate on commercial opportunities in Zimbabwe and Zambia.

Well spotted Lurker it was that kind of thing which confirmed my suspicion that this may be a good time to investigate Zimbabwe. Buying shares in Lonrho investment fund is clearly the passive way to get involved... nice and easy :cheesy:

 

[Atilla]

Good evening to you all,

Whilst doodling this evening, I notice that we are heading towards 11000 on the DOW. If that fails to hold then 10,000 or even 9,000 looks feasible on my charts. 9,000 is about 61% retrace since 1982.

This also looks like 25 year economic cycle that is sometimes talked about. I've heard it called the 18 year cycle too. Medium term plant and heavy machinary cycle to coincide with the short term white goods cycle. I don't know really just guessing but it all looks like it's going pear shape pretty fast. Once again, I hold the view the sub-prime market crises will ripple out to the rest of the economy. Tsunami comes to mind?

Fed cutting rates like that must have really pissed off all the $ holding institutions.

I reckon long term dollar will fall further and import inflation coupled with high unemployment. Miserable winter months upon us too. I'll continue to bang my drum about stagflation.

Be interested on your views for next week.

 

[Hook Shot]

How big is your canvas.....

Good evening to you all,

Whilst doodling this evening, I notice that we are heading towards 11000 on the DOW. If that fails to hold then 10,000 or even 9,000 looks feasible on my charts. 9,000 is about 61% retrace since 1982.

This also looks like 25 year economic cycle that is sometimes talked about. I've heard it called the 18 year cycle too. Medium term plant and heavy machinary cycle to coincide with the short term white goods cycle. I don't know really just guessing but it all looks like it's going pear shape pretty fast. Once again, I hold the view the sub-prime market crises will ripple out to the rest of the economy. Tsunami comes to mind?

Fed cutting rates like that must have really pissed off all the $ holding institutions.

I reckon long term dollar will fall further and import inflation coupled with high unemployment. Miserable winter months upon us too. I'll continue to bang my drum about stagflation.

Be interested on your views for next week.

Atilla with Dow above 13k last time I checked ... that 11k call is punchy.. but anything can happen as you know.... I'm working using the last bull market 7200 to 14022ish
... that gives me a 12367 as a point to watch that being the 25% retrace of that move. The 33% retrace clearly takes us below 12k (11750ish) but "for now" it's probably worth bearing in mind that 11800 was the old all time highs of 2000 and so 11800-12000 should be interesting battleground if we get that far.... just my tuppence worth :cheesy:

Edit: the march lows were just below 12k too adding extra weight to 11800-12k

 

[fibonelli]

Hi Atilla,

Good to see I'm not the only one firmly in the bear camp!

I found this chart on the prudent bear website.

Fibonelli

 

[Atilla]

Hi Atilla,

Good to see I'm not the only one firmly in the bear camp!

I found this chart on the prudent bear website.

Fibonelli

That looks reasonable imo. Just wondering if there is anything that has changed the order of markets? Don't think so. Both the 29 and post war recoveries were massively led by housing. Likewise it has the ability to induce recessions too.

HS, I was being conservative with my guestimation. Dare I say I also, saw the DOW at 5000-6000. That is if fib retrace of 61% is breached. I was embarrassed to comment on it. Looking at Fibonelli's chart it's not beyond imagination.

 

[Hook Shot]

Hi Atilla,

Good to see I'm not the only one firmly in the bear camp!

I found this chart on the prudent bear website.

Fibonelli

Those guys have probably called 20 of the last 3 bear markets....... they are right but their timing.......

 

[Hook Shot]

Come on we've heard all this before.....

That looks reasonable imo. Just wondering if there is anything that has changed the order of markets? Don't think so. Both the 29 and post war recoveries were massively led by housing. Likewise it has the ability to induce recessions too.

HS, I was being conservative with my guestimation. Dare I say I also, saw the DOW at 5000-6000. That is if fib retrace of 61% is breached. I was embarrassed to comment on it. Looking at Fibonelli's chart it's not beyond imagination.

When markets are wobbly the doomsayers of 2000-2003 said dow 5000 (especially after we had 911 in the middle.... ) Never happened... They said 1987 crash would lead to massive recession - never happened....
Come on guys you'll frighten the horses... :cheesy:

I'm not making light of it but it's not time for the black armbands just yet

 

[Kevin21]

crunching some figures off my own, and in regards to my own personal situation, i'm gearing up for the worst possbile scenario. Every penny i make is going to be put away for a rainy day. My situation is as follows

1. I have no debt at all.
2. Got myself a nice car paid for in full
3. Gonna buy a house soon, but not sure if i should wait or not to see if prices fall, but then again it could be more expensive to borrow. Only looking to borrow half the value of the property
4. Got other little business ventures on the go incase the market goes tits up, and i can't make money. Nothing big, but i've got enough of my fingers in a few pies to pull a living.
5. Got invesments in land etc abroad, once again, no debt.
6. Every penny i make is going in the sky rocket. My dream of getting a ferrari isn't the best thing to forfill if the economy is going to turn around.

Basiclly i want to make sure that i never have to work for someone else, and that i'll always be stood on my own two feet without depending on anyone but myself. If it means i can't be an ostentatious wideboy anymore then so be it...