Dow 2007

[lurkerlurker]

Volume is drying up again. Taking a break for a little while. Price returning to my last short entry (which makes me mad for covering, but I need to remember I did it for the right reasons). A 13 pip loss on such a trade is fine. A 30 pip loss on a violent upside breakout which then retraces after failing to knock out 320 is not, and that was a likely scenario.

 

[lurkerlurker]

Atilla, are you talking cash prices or did you sell the bottom there?

I hope it works for you, but I got burned once short from that point, and a bounce is "due" so I am staying on the sidelines for the time being (and this is not because my last trade was a loss, I just don't see an opportunity here)

We are seeing near term support at 80 on the futures. It looks like it may hold, although tick is making lower highs....

 

[lurkerlurker]

That break I keep threatening to take isn't happening yet. Seriously, I'm off till half five.

 

[Atilla]

Atilla, are you talking cash prices or did you sell the bottom there?

I hope it works for you, but I got burned once short from that point, and a bounce is "due" so I am staying on the sidelines for the time being (and this is not because my last trade was a loss, I just don't see an opportunity here)

We are seeing near term support at 80 on the futures. It looks like it may hold, although tick is making lower highs....

Cash prices.

I don't think it's going to make 13300 and as it is strugling I think it's going to nosedive again. Just a hunch and based on MACD and MAs. Also on the 15min it's made a lower high so as I'm up on my pips I'm more riskay then normal.

Increasingly I'm finding Std Err channels are fantastic for just about any time period. Trade the highs or lows based on the channels as 95% of all prices should fall within the range so no need for much else.

Here is my 1min charts...

 

[lurkerlurker]

Cash prices.

I don't think it's going to make 13300 and as it is strugling I think it's going to nosedive again. Just a hunch and based on MACD and MAs. Also on the 15min it's made a lower high so as I'm up on my pips I'm more riskay then normal.

Increasingly I'm finding Std Err channels are fantastic for just about any time period. Trade the highs or lows based on the channels as 95% of all prices should fall within the range so no need for much else.

Here is my 1min charts...

Interesting post and chart there Atilla. I'm looking at the futures price, and I'd consider shorting from 310. I don't want caught out again. I have £56 and need margin of £45 to trade. I could deposit more, but not the same day (which is the point of depositing such small amounts at a time - enforced discipline should my own fail). All part of my new do not bet thy whole roll philosophy.

I think prices at the moment could either be a bull flag, or a short signal. Need more confirmation. Tick has been trending lower all day, but it is not holding below zero for very long (although the true mean will be around 200). I think if there is to be serious shorting again the big boys will drive the price up a little, gun for stops above recent highs, and then plunge it from there.

Equally, I don't see the market bouncing before a retest of the lows, as bulls will want a good price for the uncertainty of bearing a long here. In short, I wont trade within this range.

As I've been typing this, price has moved up and I am now looking to short a test of 20.

 

[lurkerlurker]

Again, I'm very resentful of losing my perfect short from 113. Silly brokers.

 

[lurkerlurker]

I may miss this, but I'm not selling 300 right now. I need confirmation, either in the form of a double top or a right shoulder (or something very interesting in Tick)

 

[lurkerlurker]

Almost panicked an entry there, but restrained myself. I have a bearish leaning at the moment. That has just been corrected by the fact there is now no follow through on that rather abrupt dip. MM shakeout? Weak bears selling to eager bulls?

 

[lurkerlurker]

Still uncertain. Which way will it break. I won't set stops on either side because of slippage and fake outs. I'm down 4 so I want a safe entry. I can only lose another 11 before I have insufficient margin for this contract.

Thoughts? (I'm not trading until I'm sure anyways)

 

[lurkerlurker]

Short 314, stoploss 330, target 260.

 

[2468steve]

stop hit @ 20..... -50 .....

 

[lurkerlurker]

Short 314, stoploss 330, target 260.

Stopped out -30. Ouch. That was quick. Down £34 for today, £64 between today and yesterday. Daily loss target hit, no more trades. Needless to say I took that short prematurely when I had been waiting for a good price to go short. I was blinded to the upside risk temporarily, but it was enough to wipe me out.

Good trading all.

 

[lurkerlurker]

stop hit @ 20..... -50 .....

Ouch! I can sympathise. Nobody likes to hold shorts over the weekend in a bull market. A rally into the close was always a possibility.

I'm down -34 for today. Doubt that helps any, but....

Oh wait - here it is - you're up for the week, yes?

 

[2468steve]

Ouch! I can sympathise. Nobody likes to hold shorts over the weekend in a bull market. A rally into the close was always a possibility.

I'm down -34 for today. Doubt that helps any, but....

Oh wait - here it is - you're up for the week, yes?

I don't really scalp LL...doesn't suit my style...try for momentum gains,which also carries risk of getting stopped out if no follow through....all about risk/reward.....risked 50pts to make 190 on that trade...always another trade as they say...

 

[tricks]

short 40 cash

 

[jacinto]

lurker

what time frame do you use? i can only see that shorts on an intraday basis were the risky options vs patient longs. a 4 hour chart will show that.

edit: adding a 60 min chart

j

 

[2468steve]

Oh wait - here it is - you're up for the week, yes?

nicely up this week....over 650 pts...but the market has been kind,lots of volatility.....I struggle in low momentum days because of my style of trading....

cheers

 

[lurkerlurker]

lurker

what time frame do you use? i can only see that shorts on an intraday basis were the risky options vs patient longs. a 4 hour chart will show that.

edit: adding a 60 min chart

j

Thanks for the input. I use a 5 minute chart for the YM and tick, with a 1 minute chart for entries. Both charts have a 100 minute EMA.

The charts you posted were very very useful indeed. At first I didn't recognise the market, not ever looking that far back (I take 5 min or days, nothing between). That is a glaring flaw in any method I am using. Ouch.

In retrospect, even on a 15 minute, why didn't I see? I am far too focussed on the short term, and that is an issue which needs to be address. I don't wish to scale, and a SB spread makes that impossible. I need to look at longer timeframes and look to hold for longer. Even a 15 minute would have shown a failure to make a lower low combined with the higher high quite easily.

Attached chart where the more sensible entries and exits are. First entry a bit of a gamble on failure to break low. Exit on double top, short on the downward swing. I got the bit about being short here quite correct, though I was forced to cover by TradIndex losing their web platform. Cover short and go long around 4:30 on a failure to make a lower low, and the consolidation you suggest. Longs to be added to when price respects the lower trendline. Uptrend was clear by this point on longer timeframes. On shorter ones, every advance looked like a bear flag. We are in a bull market, and it was obvious to me there would be a bounce last night. And this morning. And I didn't trade it. I said clearly rally towards the close. I was looking for double top reversals where they didn't exist. Shorts had ceased to be a good idea on a 15 min chart (attached) since before 5pm.

Oh dear. Looks like I need to make some effort to consider my timeframes and exactly how to trade this beast. 5 min charts don't seem terribly appropriate - perhaps I should use them for entries instead, and take a 15 for trend? Hmm.

Attached shows retrospective postulations, and an experiment with a pitchfork.

I hope this helps others - This knowlege is helping me. Saying that, shorts are looking rather good right now if 50 breaks. Otherwise it could give very strong support to the upside.

Not watching this market any more this evening, but I will be working on my strategy I expect. Postulations for the journal will follow.

Thanks again.

 

[Atilla]

nicely up this week....over 650 pts...but the market has been kind,lots of volatility.....I struggle in low momentum days because of my style of trading....

cheers

Well my SL got blown. Up +43 today and +192 for the week.

I should have done a lot better but scalping instead of letting them run as you rightly say. Still have a lot to learn.

We are at 23% retrace from the highs. If the DOW pulls off these levels and surges forward I would still view the 13700 and 14000 as a possibility.

I really would like to see more of a correction. I obviously do better in bear markets then bulls but next week should be interesting. If we have another bad week it will be three black crows.

I think that's it for me guys.

Have a great weekend and have fun.

 

[lurkerlurker]

Cash prices.

I don't think it's going to make 13300 and as it is strugling I think it's going to nosedive again. Just a hunch and based on MACD and MAs. Also on the 15min it's made a lower high so as I'm up on my pips I'm more riskay then normal.

Increasingly I'm finding Std Err channels are fantastic for just about any time period. Trade the highs or lows based on the channels as 95% of all prices should fall within the range so no need for much else.

Here is my 1min charts...

You didn't get too screwed being short did you? Perhaps we should both keep an eye on a higher timeframe than 1/5 minutes and a lower timeframe than daily to get better perspective.