Dow 2007

Bad trading day

I have found today, very difficult, the reason is simple (ME), made some very basic errors and tried to trade from a shorter timescale (1min),failing to assess my entries against longer timescales before entering the market. As an example, a long presented itself at 13522 on my short term setup, I took it, had I stuck to my standard routine and checked against the 5 min chart, I would have never taken that trade, as short was clearly staring me in the face, the ema8 has remained under the ema 21 from the open all day. The trading signal was short all day, unless you scalping the ups and downs, which I don't really like doing.

Given the falls today, I have made just over my daily target of 20, however, given my extremely poor self discipline, I am gutted that I haven't bagged in excess of 100 points today.

More concentration is required, sticky to my plan 100% is essential, less chatting is desirable, so from tomorrow, I will post less and concentate more
 
Paul71 (formerly linesniffer) said:
Just read it, nice post Dinos!

Hi LL, simulated accounts are useful, very useful indeed. Any trader, no matter what level should take full advantage of these training facilities. Used correctly, they can provide an almost effortless transition into trading with actual money.

IMHO, that is.:)
Click to expand...

On that point, I've been doing simulated trading with NinjaTrader and an OpenTick feed. I'm liking the 1 point spread, and the more or less instant fills. I've been ignoring the paper trading facilities of the SB firms. I would really like Direct Access, and am just reflecting that out of my many successful paper trades in the last few days, getting over a 4 or 5 point spread would have made the results rather mediocre...

I think I'm almost ready for a bit of live trading again, with small stake sizes of course. Not looking forward to trading the Dow against a 4/5 point spread though. I think I need to bring actual funds back into the equation to determine if my emotional issues have improved any. I'm certainly more confident in my trading compared with a few weeks ago.

My trading plan is still rather discretionary, but the rules are more simple and I'm not relying on a bunch of indicators anymore. Just 1 moving average, RSI, volume, and Tick. MACD is still on the screen, more for exits than anything else. I would consider that the one thing paper trading has helped me with beyond all else is the compulsion to overtrade. Perhaps this is premature, however I don't feel I will be taking half a dozen trades in a few hours any more. I'm looking for around 3 or 4 for the whole session.

I think I have reached the point where I can let an "opportunity" pass if I've missed a good entry. Hourly high for the Dow right now, buying into the close. Tick is failing to register a higher high though, and RSI (14 period on 5 min) is only equal with the previous highs (and not breaching 60).

I think it is possible that my earlier prediction of a close above 450 will hold. I think if the market can close above 500 that is all the proof that bulls will need that this is a correction and not a reversal. It will be interesting to watch the open tomorrow.

Back tomorrow for the afternoon session.
Good trading all.
 
I don't see this level holding for very long. We have divergence in the RSI and Tick. I certainly wouldn't take an overnight long in these circumstances. I'm not too sure if the heavy volume here is good or bad for bulls.

Tick negative again - new longs be careful please.
 
Trin bearish running now at 1.34, any rise above this and a long will be order of the day at the close
 
half time......and stopped out @ 80.....-14 x 3= minus 42

chance i took i'm afraid...downtrend was either gonna break or not......

c'est la vie......there's always another trade tomorrow

cheers
 
Dinos said:
Trin bearish running now at 1.34, any rise above this and a long will be order of the day at the close
Click to expand...

Interesting - do you use Tick as well as trin? I'm just using tick at the moment, but may consider using Trin at a later stage.
 
Moved my stop to 10 points away at 13491
20 points in the bag
So total for today -6 with this trade still running.
Will hold the long overnight.
Good evening all.
 
Dinos said:
LL, no never used it, does it work for you?
Click to expand...

I'm working with using tick divergences to determine fake-outs and give a better idea of short term market sentiment. Combined with RSI, price, and volume I think I have a good thing going here. It also trades less than most any system I have tried so far. The NYSE Tick seems to almost be a leading indicator of the YM, but needs confirmation. It is quite interesting to watch.

And yes, we all have bad trading days, and anyone who didn't take 100 points out of the Dow today will feel bad about it. I know I do! As long as you recognise where you went wrong...
 
off topic, but...
63 years ago today was also a difficult day....in Normandy.

-49 on the day haviing chickened out of one good long on a pull back.
 
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For all new,inexperienced or experienced traders here I strongly suggest you take time to read Dinos post 152 on Lurkerlurker Trading Journal....maybe the best 5 minutes reading you'll have for a long time and allow you to see the wood from the trees....excellent stuff...
 
lurkerlurker said:
And yes, we all have bad trading days, and anyone who didn't take 100 points out of the Dow today will feel bad about it. I know I do! As long as you recognise where you went wrong...
Click to expand...

He or she shouldn't really. If taking 20 points daily is one's target and the trader manages to do so on a consistent basis - as well in days where the market is stuck in a small range of 50 points as in days where the market moves like 200 points - he's got nothing to feel sorry about.

Missing out on a big move is a common cause for traders to start taking low probability trades. For most traders, the feeling of missing out on a perfect trade (and thus not making for example 500 €/$) will have a bigger effect on your mental state than the feeling when one loses 100 €/$ when he could've lost 500 €/$. Most traders will bang their aheads against the wall for missing that perfect opportunity and will be very anxious to get into another trade. The trader that manages his -500 loss and sees it coming back to -100 (where he takes it) will most likely feel rather content with his performance.
 
Last edited:
firewalker99 said:
He or she shouldn't really. If taking 20 points daily is one's target and the trader manages to do so on a consistent basis - as well in days where the market is stuck in a small range of 50 points as in days where the market moves like 200 points - he's got nothing to feel sorry about.
Click to expand...

Absolutely. Dinos did well to reach his target. I was just expressing my belief that we all have regrets on a day like this where there were over 100 points on the table for a single trade. (short from anywhere near the open).
 
lurkerlurker said:
Absolutely. Dinos did well to reach his target. I was just expressing my belief that we all have regrets on a day like this where there were over 100 points on the table for a single trade. (short from anywhere near the open).
Click to expand...

I know what you mean, because I used to feel the same regret.
But then we have to think if we really would've left our trade open for +100?
Very likely we would've taken profits much too early...

Talking about regrets, I made the mistake by going long too early - which you correctly pointed out.
 
Dinos said:
I have found today, very difficult, the reason is simple (ME), made some very basic errors and tried to trade from a shorter timescale (1min),failing to assess my entries against longer timescales before entering the market. As an example, a long presented itself at 13522 on my short term setup, I took it, had I stuck to my standard routine and checked against the 5 min chart, I would have never taken that trade, as short was clearly staring me in the face, the ema8 has remained under the ema 21 from the open all day. The trading signal was short all day, unless you scalping the ups and downs, which I don't really like doing.

Given the falls today, I have made just over my daily target of 20, however, given my extremely poor self discipline, I am gutted that I haven't bagged in excess of 100 points today.

More concentration is required, sticky to my plan 100% is essential, less chatting is desirable, so from tomorrow, I will post less and concentate more
Click to expand...

in my language, and in local, very local slang (mexico city spanish) there is a rather rude saying that describes what you say. I wont translate it exactly but try to make a more boring but "to the point" analogy :LOL:

Even the most alert seasoned "girl hunter in a bar" will miss a shag for the sake of securing the last pint ;)

j

Edit: decided to put the phrase: "Hasta a la mas puta se le escapa un pedo"
 
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