Best Thread BBmac's Gbpusd thread

[bbmac]

I was posting above whilst waiting for this the 3rd and final trade I have done today to play out for some pip gain (am flat now having just booked the profit)

The 1min regular bearish divergence based Reversal set-up @ the potential res =50% fib of the 6842-6599 fall, see pic below

There was no real repeating Reversal set-up on 5min to support this 1min set-up (bearish div in 2 of the 3 oscillators though) but on 15min a hidden divergence based Re-entry (to next t/f trend after a pullback set-up)

So why didn't I hold this set-up for more pip gain? Well anything can happen of course and if I had have done I would have moved stop to break even, but I chose to book profit beacuse the 15min supporting Re-entry set-up (Re-entry back into 1hr gowing ?downtrend) came @ a H after 2 x HL on that t/f, ie not the optimum position for a Re-entry (to next t/f trend after a pullback) set-up (as explained in posts above) Also 1hr off the 6842 HH has printed a HL then LH then L, so not a convincing downtrend on that t/f yet.

I would have been more inclined to hold for more gain (ie a with 1hr downtrend follow thru to a LL possibly?) had the supporting 15min Re-entry developed at a H with only one HL not 2xHL beneath it, although the set-up (s) were @ a corresponding LH on 1hr, into whose downtrend the 15min Re-entry set-up indicated a hi-probability entry after the pullback off 6599 Lo.

The 1hr is shown below:

G/L

 

[bbmac]

Was just packing up for the day when:

As the sell-off described in the post above continued, the 5min began to develop a downtrend off that 6723 area, and crucially the first L was lower than the last HL of it's uptrend to that 6723 High...so that as price developed and a 2nd Lh occurred after a LL on this 5min t/f...a 1min Re-entry set-up became a hi-probability trading opportunity particularly as the 1hr candle had closed as a bearish engulfing off that Hi...sure enough a with trend follow thru to a new LL occurred..

The 1min Hidden-divergence Re-entry set-up is here and note it occurred at a H on that t/f and a LH on the 5min into whose downtrend the set-up indicated a chance to get 'with trend' after the pullback.

Note on the 1hr chart below showing the bearish engulfing candle that, as detailed in posts above the first L of it's downtrend, unlike the 5min decsribed here, did not print below the last HL of it's previous uptrend!!

Understanding what price is doing/telling you on each t/f of interest to you can result in dramatic improvements in the strike rate of your trading edge by only acting on it in the highest probability overall price action conditions.

G/L

 

[bbmac]

Final look @ 1hr chart today

Final look @ 1hr chart before own trading re-commences tomorrow morning London session, and 2 x HL off the current i/day low @ 6599and a new uptrend on that t/f...the first H coming @ a previous swing lo=prev supp=potential sbr, see-ing a sell-off to the 2nd HL.

Previous swing hi/lo zones decsribed as a, b and c are co-existant on 4hr t/f.

G/L

 

[bbmac]

The current intraday lows saw a hidden-divergence based 1hr re-entry (to next higher t/f after a pullback) set-up, screenshot below

@ the potential rbs of the previous 4hr swing hi = prev res = potential rbs zone pictured below

The 1hr Re-entry set-up (into 4hr uptrend) came @ a L on 1hr and 4hr following LH's on both t/f's so not @ an optimum HL or L on 1hr/HL on 4hr..which would have been better, this said there was a good individual price action candle trigger and the previous 4hr swing hi zone was multi-tested.

G/L

 

[bbmac]

Weds 11th Nov 09

1hr in a definate uptrend now after 3 x HL with Uk employment data due ' 0930am and Boe Qtrly Inflation Report @ 1030am gmt.

The 1hr chart as I see it, in respect of potential supp/res factors is posted below, correct at time of posting.

G/L

 

[bbmac]

4hr is in a 'general' albeit imperfect uptrend,.. after a LH then a L off the last HH...you can see the previous swing hi = previous resistance = potential rbs zone (now a potential supp zone) at which demand was found for a further attempt up after the pullback from 6842.

G/L

 

[bbmac]

employment numbers

Better than expected Uk employment data (12.9k -vs- 20.8k forecast with stable un-emp rate down from 7.9% prev )and positive revisions from in month's un-emp rate 7.9% to 7.8% and small positive revision in claimant count...all in all a knee-jerk £ positive response from market...although running into some potential 1hr resistance now around the 76.4% fib 6842-6599.

 

[bbmac]

The 5min prev swing hi's zone below is the area I shall be looking for a 1min hidden-div based re-entry set-up should price pullback to there and it develop.

G/L

 

[bbmac]

post data reaction @ potential resistance

As the 1min screenshot below shows price sold down sharply from the previous 1hr swing hi=prev res=potential res zone, confluence with the 76.4% fib 6842-6599, through the prev 5min swing hi zone=potential rbs, and the hidden-div Re-entry set-up developed below it.

The potential resistance zone on 1hr and fib is shown here.

The 1min and supporting 5min Reversal set-ups at that resistance confluence are below, the 1min screenshot also shows the hidden-div based Re-entry (to next t/f trend after a pullback) set-up that developed, albeit below the potential rbs on 5min shown in post above:

I did not trade the Re-entry set-up as it did not fall at the potential rbs zone on the next higher t/f-5min, although the macd signal lines were with the trade direction to the 1hr t/f. Any long trade now will have to be a 1min Reversal set-up with supporting 5 or 15min hidden-div Re-entry @ 1hr potential RBS.

G/L

 

[bbmac]

Boe Qtrly Inflation report due @ 1030am gmt, dovish or hawkish?? We'll know in a few mins

G/L

 

[bbmac]

Post data react

Price has arrived @ a previous 1hr swing lo zone, co-existant with a 4hr prev sw lo zone=potential supp, and the 76.4% of the 6599-post data knee-jerk react hi of 6799, and 1hr ascending potential support trend line (one of them) after some strong selling down from that 6799 hi as market digested Boe Qtrly inflation reports and kings comments...Some nice thrust candles on 1 and 5min in order to take advantage of the post data momentum and then an extreme oscillator readings and cci hook based Reversal set-up at the potential support shown below:

the 4hr prev sw lo=prev supp=potential supp zone is shown in post #280

The 1min set-up is shown below:

Quick +11pip scalp on this set-up as have no supporting 5min (+) set-up.

G/L

 

[bbmac]

Price continued, after a small pullback to sell down to the next prev swing lo zone on 1hr, co-existant with same prev sw lo zone on 4hr mentioned in above posts...I was tempted to get short again at the area circled on 1min chart below but only really hidden divergence on 1 x oscillator...although it did sell down again after that pullback.

The previous 1hr swing lo=prev supp=potential support zone is shown below:

And the 1min trigger t/f regular bullish divergence based repeating Reversal set-up is shown below;

This 1min set-up was supported by an oscillator extremes/cci hook based repeating reversal set-up (Reversal Extreme, examples of which are elsewhere on this thread.) A quick +26pips netted from the set-up.

All ascending potential support trend lines on 1hr have been breeched in this move down now.

G/L

 

[globaljobber]

Good posts

Hi bbmac,

Nice to see you making some good, informative posts, thanks as am following them. There was also a very lovely 1m Reversal C setup after this sell-off, at 11:01 for a good 20 odd pips.

Regards
Gerard

Price has arrived @ a previous 1hr swing lo zone, co-existant with a 4hr prev sw lo zone=potential supp, and the 76.4% of the 6599-post data knee-jerk react hi of 6799, and 1hr ascending potential support trend line (one of them) after some strong selling down from that 6799 hi as market digested Boe Qtrly inflation reports and kings comments...Some nice thrust candles on 1 and 5min in order to take advantage of the post data momentum and then an extreme oscillator readings and cci hook based Reversal set-up at the potential support shown below:

the 4hr prev sw lo=prev supp=potential supp zone is shown in post #280

The 1min set-up is shown below:

Quick +11pip scalp on this set-up as have no supporting 5min (+) set-up.

G/L

 

[bbmac]

Hi bbmac,

Nice to see you making some good, informative posts, thanks as am following them. There was also a very lovely 1m Reversal C setup after this sell-off, at 11:01 for a good 20 odd pips.

Regards
Gerard

Lol, our posts have crossed..it is discussed above..Yeh that was a 'text book' Reversal C with the supporting 5min Reversal Extreme. Note also that 5 and 15min also breeched/touched the 2nd extreme support channel-161.8 These tech set-ups/conditions and the confluence of a 1hr and 4hr prev sw lo=prev supp=potential supp zone made for a hi-probability trading opportunity even against a strong down move.

Well spotted.

 

[bbmac]

market chatter

'...Traders note that CtiFx techs have re-established longs at 1.6679 and target atleast 1.6960. Stop loss at 1.6550...'

 

[glyder]

re market chatter

'...Traders note that CtiFx techs have re-established longs at 1.6679 and target atleast 1.6960. Stop loss at 1.6550...'

Hi BBMAC... according to my feed the price has not quite yet hit 1.6679, so I take it that this is an order?

 

[bbmac]

Hi BBMAC... according to my feed the price has not quite yet hit 1.6679, so I take it that this is an order?

Hi Glyder, I have no idea whether it was hit during or before the sell-off or is still a pending order, placed after the sell-off.

G/L

 

[bbmac]

Th 12 Nov 09

Pretty Bearish tone off the early asian/overnight 6625 @ the prev 1hr/4hr swing lo=prev supp=potential sbr zone, price arriving at the bottom of a prev 1hr and 4hr swing lo = prev supp = potential support zone, mni saying bids 6500/20 and of course there is a 4hr ascending potential support trend line there too.

The zones marked as a b and c are co-existant on 4hr t/f too.

G/L

 

[bbmac]

4hr ascending potential support trend line

The trend line is pictured below utting through bottom of that prev sw lo=prev supp=potential supp zone on this t/f.

Regular bullish divergence based reversal set-ups 1min and 15min at the area giving a nice entry against the trend @ this potential support confluence.

G/L

 

[bbmac]

2 fib cluster?

Below current price, Just above the 76.4% of 6260-6842 @ 6397 is the 38.2% of 5707-6842 @ 6408