Wallstreet1928 Analysis & live calls on FTSE,DAX,S&P...aimed to help New traders

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Re: Price and Time

You can click on the little green arrow but here it is anyway...

This could be a pullback of say 10% ish.

However, my gut feeling is that it won't be a pullback but the start of the next leg down. We should see a series of lower highs and lower lows to confirm.

My S&P targets are

950 by Y/E
850 by end of Q1 2010
My ultimate target is 550 within 2 years (~DOW 5500)

This is all about probabilities and I could well be wrong... let's wait and see!

So when do you expect an upturn then? Another 259 days?
 
Re: Price and Time

So when do you expect an upturn then? Another 259 days?

If you extrapolate the time pattern, then something should occur in 130 days (half of 259). However, this doesn't mean necessarily it will be a pullback, just some sort of turning point. On 9th March it was an up move, 23rd November a down move. March 2010 ... your guess is good as mine
 
Re: Wallstreet1928 Analysis & live calls on FTSE,DAX,S&P...aimed to help New traders

Ok. Closed my short on FTSE form 5329 at 5200. 129 points profit.
 
Re: Wallstreet1928 Analysis & live calls on FTSE,DAX,S&P...aimed to help New traders

ftse 100.tick data
10 days data
8by 3
been shorting from the res area.very clearly defined
missed the big move down.i posted last night that dollar index had disconnected from stock index.i knew something was not right.missed the rerace on eurusd and the ftse tanking
we learn new things every day

2d7x1tw.gif
 
Re: Wallstreet1928 Analysis & live calls on FTSE,DAX,S&P...aimed to help New traders

SINGAPORE (MarketWatch) -- Asian stock markets were falling Friday, with financial shares bearing the brunt of losses as nervous investors worried about banks' exposure to Dubai World's debt.

Risky currencies also sold off as Dubai World, the city state's largest corporate entity, Wednesday asked creditors for a six-month standstill on debt repayments of $59 billion. Investors piled into safe-haven bets like the yen, which rose to a fresh 14-year high against the U.S. dollar and hurt Japanese export stocks.

Japan's Nikkei 225 was down 1.8%, Australia's S&P/ASX 200 was down 2.2% while South Korea's Kospi Composite was down 2.4%. Hong Kong's Hang Seng Index fell 2.5%. Dow Jones Industrial Average futures were recently 183 points lower in screen trade. Markets in Singapore, Malaysia and Indonesia were shut for a holiday.

"Year-end window dressing has taken a rather nasty turn, with risk being furiously sold, as sentiment soured sharply," said David Watt, Senior Currency Strategist at RBC Capital Markets.

Patrick Bennett, Asia rates strategist at Societe Generale said: "Fallout from Dubai World seeking a debt moratorium has been broad. It is not the amount involved ($59 billion) but potential contagion that will drive markets."

Financials across the region took a hit as investors became jittery about banks' potential exposure to Dubai World's debt, and other debt issued in Dubai. Major banks in Australia were all down more than 3.0% with National Australia Bank down 3.7%, Westpac down 3.5%, ANZ 3.1% lower and Macquarie fell 4.3%.

Taiwan financial shares also lost ground with Cathay Financial 1.7% lower and Chinatrust down 3.8%. In Hong Kong, HSBC fell 5.4% while Standard Chartered was down 4.8%, and in Seoul Shinhan Financial was down 3.7%, while Woori Finance was down 6.6%.
 
Re: Wallstreet1928 Analysis & live calls on FTSE,DAX,S&P...aimed to help New traders

Mizuho Securities market analyst Yukio Takahashi said that many Japanese exporters have based their earnings outlooks on the assumption of the U.S. dollar at Y90, with few conservative firms basing theirs on Y85. Honda Motor was down 3.3%, Toyota Motor was off 2.1%, Sharp fell 3.0% and Nikon was off 4.0%.

The risk-averse trade dragged the Australian dollar lower to US$0.9038. The New Zealand dollar fell to US$0.7103.

The U.S. dollar was buying Y86.03 compared with Y86.49 in mid-afternoon trade in Toronto Thursday, the euro was at $1.4937 compared with $1.5009, and at Y128.56 from Y129.74.

But some analysts suggested that the selloff in equities, risk currencies and commodities was probably a little overdone. "Everyone has gone into panic mode but this is Dubai -- it's not going to send the world into a tailspin," said Patersons Senior Client Advisor Chris Blair, in Sydney. "

Resource stocks were also taking a hit as the general pull back from risk sent commodities prices lower. Rio Tinto was down 2.3%, BHP Billiton fell 2.9% and Oz Minerals dropped 4.4% in Australia. In Tokyo, Sumitomo Metal Mining was down 3.7% while in the Philippines, miners Philex was down 6.5% and Century Peak Metal fell 7.1%.

Elsewhere in the region, the Shanghai Composite Index fell 0.6% in China, Taiwan shares were down 1.6%, Philippine shares fell 1.2% and Thailand stocks slipped 1.0%. New Zealand's NZX-50 lost 1.3%.

Lead December Japanese government bond futures were higher on the stronger yen and weakness in the Nikkei 225. Futures were up 0.22 at 139.72 points, after earlier hitting 139.91 points -- its highest level since Feb 23. The 5-year cash JGB yield was down 2.0 basis points at 0.550% while the 10-year cash yield was 2.0 basis points lower at 1.260%.

The London Mercantile Exchange 3-month copper contract was up $30 at $6,855 per ton from the PM kerb.
 
Re: Wallstreet1928 Analysis & live calls on FTSE,DAX,S&P...aimed to help New traders

Asia/Pacific Last Trade Change Related Information
^AORD All Ordinaries (Australia) 4,597.20 5:47am -130.40 (-2.76%) Chart, Components, more...
^BSESN BSE 30 (India) 16,331.54 6:46am -523.39 (-3.11%) Chart, more...
^HSI Hang Seng (Hong Kong) 21,188.78 6:41am -1021.63 (-4.60%) Chart, Components, more...
^JKSE Jakarta Composite (Indonesia) 2,393.52 26 Nov -68.01 (-2.76%) Chart, Components, more...
^KLSE KLSE Composite (Malaysia) 1,270.61 26 Nov 0.00 (+0.00%) Chart, Components, more...
^NZ50 NZSE 50 (New Zealand) 3,094.44 4:31am -32.88 (-1.05%) Chart, Components, more...
^N225 Nikkei 225 (Japan) 9,081.52 6:00am -301.72 (-3.22%) Chart, more...
^NSEI S&P CNX NIFTY (India) 4,841.45 6:56am -164.10 (-3.28%) Chart, more...
^KS11 Seoul Composite (South Korea) 1,524.50 6:02am -75.02 (-4.69%) Chart, Components, more...
000001.SS Shanghai Composite (China) 3,100.70 6:40am -70.28 (-2.22%) Chart, Components, more...
^STI Strait Times (Singapore) 2,762.22 26 Nov -30.62 (-1.10%) Chart, Components, more...
 
Re: Wallstreet1928 Analysis & live calls on FTSE,DAX,S&P...aimed to help New traders

Market news & views
· The FTSE is seen opening around 35 points lower again this morning after Asian markets fell further
overnight with concerns over Dubai’s debt problems continuing to be used as an excuse for the sell-off from
the recent highs, with the fun and games on the LSE yesterday also helping to add to investor jitters
· Lloyds trades ex rights today after its records rights issue found strong support at the EGM yesterday
· RBS details that the government has agreed to subscribe to a further £8bn in shares, and agrees not to pay
dividends of coupons and states that accession needs holder approval
 
Re: Wallstreet1928 Analysis & live calls on FTSE,DAX,S&P...aimed to help New traders

printing 5100 now.where is the next support level...??
 
Be careful with shorting. There could be some news released over the weekend regarding the Dubai World problems which could spark a counter rally.
 
Re: Wallstreet1928 Analysis & live calls on FTSE,DAX,S&P...aimed to help New traders

Be careful with shorting. There could be some news released over the weekend regarding the Dubai World problems which could spark a counter rally.
Lots of banks coming out today saying they have no exposure to Dubai World.. I think this has spooked credit markets a bit but the problem seems to be contained - seems like an isolated case with Dubai World paying the price for dubai property boom - i am long DAX so talking my book a bit here!
 
Re: Wallstreet1928 Analysis & live calls on FTSE,DAX,S&P...aimed to help New traders

Dentist we filled that gap on oil I mentioned a week or two ago

remember you couldnt get the data anywhere

$72.5-73

there is only one way for oil and there is only one way for this market and that's upwards

if these levels hold then we could certainly see new highs

5100 FTSE

1170 sp 500

oil $72.5
 
Re: Wallstreet1928 Analysis & live calls on FTSE,DAX,S&P...aimed to help New traders

Dentist we filled that gap on oil I mentioned a week or two ago

remember you couldnt get the data anywhere

$72.5-73

there is only one way for oil and there is only one way for this market and that's upwards

if these levels hold then we could certainly see new highs

5100 FTSE

1170 sp 500

oil $72.5

did you really mean 1170 sp 500 or was that 1070 ?
 
Re: Wallstreet1928 Analysis & live calls on FTSE,DAX,S&P...aimed to help New traders

did you really mean 1170 sp 500 or was that 1070 ?

do apologise

1070

oil bounced at gap fill $72.5-73

very very nice, early signal of reversal in place
 
Re: Wallstreet1928 Analysis & live calls on FTSE,DAX,S&P...aimed to help New traders

ok I am taking my profit Dax here 5598- got sing when your winning ! - very good call on Oil you guys!
 
Re: Wallstreet1928 Analysis & live calls on FTSE,DAX,S&P...aimed to help New traders

right back to where we started yesterday .....ho ho ho !!


santa is back .....
 
Re: Wallstreet1928 Analysis & live calls on FTSE,DAX,S&P...aimed to help New traders

reversal city ...................la la la lala laaaaa

carol singing
 
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