US Indices intraday trading - JULY 2003

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23.7.03
 

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Was you in the chat room Tom?? :cheesy:
Great work Big B..
Glad you did well Tom... must be hard balancing everything ;)

cj
 
Lets say open and fair discussion from both points of view :D

Everyone said fair play for posting though!!!


Cheers cj
 
sidinuk said:
attached is a little s/s which calculates the spiral dates starting from both the wall street crash in 29 and the A-bomb in 45. As you can see both spirals hit the same date: 29 July 2003. Note that the last date from the 1929 crash spiral was 21 Oct 1987, just about the date of the last big crash.


Now I know that you're joking..............LOL !
 
bigbusiness, i appreciate your attempts to make me look better, but lets just say that the path didnt do justice today..i will cry all the way to the bank for the afternoon trade
 
You did say this path might be rocky today Tom and you were very close yesterday.

If you got it spot on every day I am sure no one would be able to afford your book :)
 
Have you managed to complete any more of the book Tom?

There's demand for it already!!! :cool:

Cj
 
Nah, I dont think it will sell...

I dont make any claims to make £1000 or more a month on penny bets, and you certainly have to work more than an hour to trade this way. You may get lucky from time to time, but I dont deal in luck. These days that combo doesnt sell well. I suppose most traders are looking for a Holy Grail.

A320, if I told you that I have a system that averages 3 SP500 points a day over the last year. How much would you pay for it. If I could prove to you that it worked and I got you in to teach it ( it will take less than 10 minutes ) how much would you pay?

Well, the system would make you £20,000 a year after commission trading just 1 lot e-mini. If I charged 10% of the first years winnings it would cost you £2000. What if I then said, OK, pay me £2000 after the first year, how many do you think would sign up? I will answer that for you: none. Why? because most people would realise that it is not very "fancy", and it is almost a bit boring and requires a lot of watching the market. Most people dont want that. They want to be lured by false claims of easy money and little work. Well, the only place that success comes before work is in the dictionary.

The system is real

I have said it before and I will say it again, as I know there are so many lurking but very few posting here: trading is not an easy profession. It takes a lot of dedication, persistence when things are not going your way, capital to survive the first 12-18 months, and above all self-confidence, the belief that you can succeed.
 
Umm I much would I pay???

Others who teach methods similar to Tom charge $599 just for a 200 page book, you could also go with the £5k mentoring to sharpen your skills.

So I would want to pay less than the prices above!!! but its like you say... people always opt for the quick and easy route which inevitably fails. :(
Geometry & hard work is boring, but when the veil is lifted the boredom quickly disappears!
Back to my models!!! :cheesy:


Cj :cool:
 
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Trading is in my opinion about reading patterns and controlling risk. That is what I trade and that is what I teach. When we do free seminars, I hear all the stories and I see all the stories on a daily basis. Discipline is what is needed in big doses.

I often hear good analysts or traders say that " we are in wave 4 of A of 5 of C, so basis that, we should be going up soon." My first question is always, where do I put my stop if I am wrong. Not many trade like that.

Anyway, it was not meant to be a lecture. People will do what they have always done, nothing changes there. It is only the few who goes way beyond the crowd. Why they do that is in my opinion because they think differently.

is Caroline a model? :)
 
Could agree more regarding pattens and most importantly risk discipline.

Yes Caroline is my best and sauciest model :D

I'm sure a few would buy your book ;)

Cj
 
Got to say Tom, everything you have said tonight is spot on... Think you mentioned "90% emotion" earlier today, if you could reduce that figure, and replace it with discipline. I think the lower you got the emotion figure, the more succesful you become. Along with the work ethic. "Ain't nuthin' for free, old pal".
Keep up the good work, it's all about info exchange too.
Hope hols going well...
Signed
Mainly a lurker... :LOL:
 
This is from a chapter called Entry Techniques, it is not the full chapter, just some of it that you may be able to use:

"""I have read, as I am sure you have as well, a fair number of trading books. There are a lot of wonderful theories in them. However, I haven’t really read any books that gave you an idea of where to buy and sell.

My entry techniques are based around the following set-ups:

1. Buy a breakout of prior resistance.
2. Sell a breakout of prior support.
3. Sell into strength when a bear correction looks exhausted.
4. Buy into weakness when a bull correction looks exhausted.

There are 4 ticks for every full S&P500 point. There is no need to risk more than 6 ticks if you can execute your trade within 2-3 ticks of your decision point of entry. You will soon find out if you are right or wrong. This method calls for tight stops.


My exit techniques are based around the following set-ups:

1. Exit on a pre-set stop loss if the trade does not work immediately.
2. Exit on a break-even stop if the position initially goes into profit.
3. Exit when you feel momentum has died down.
4. Exit when your trailing stop has been hit on a profitable position

When you get into a trade you have to consider where you would get out if things went against you. This will be very straightforward but it will put a lot of effort on your part to pick the right entry in order to minimise your loss exposure. Patience is required. Liquidity is obviously another consideration. Trading the Dow futures outside hours can be a real eye-opener in liquidity. There are many times during the early hours of the morning where the Dow is so thinly traded that you will be pushed filling a “daily Dow” bet in £ 25.

The biggest edge you can have in the market from an entry-point of view is a thorough knowledge of chart patterns. The best thing you can do for yourself is to study intra-day charts of the market you want to trade. The odds of success on these kinds of entries are probably not more than 50/50. That is why you want to pick your entry very carefully, and have bags of patience for the right pattern to set up. Once a trend matures and has established itself the odds can be increased in your favour.

Patterns in the market is the result of the psychological forces at work, ie. greed and fear. When one side is up against the wall, the other side has won, and as they say in Wall Street, not only is it permitted to kick someone who is lying down, it is recommended. You have to learn to think like a trader if you want to become one.


What you must realize is that you must stay flexible to the slightest change in market sentiment to trade this way. You cannot afford to have a fixed view.

Nevertheless these are the things you must understand.

1.
Trending moves seldom make corrections to the main trend that last longer than 1-3 days. If you look at the daily chart of the move from March 2003 to July 2003, you will see that there are only a few cluster of 1-3 day corrections. However, even these days provide exellent trading opportunities. There are 78 5-minute bars in a trading day!

2.
Corrections seldom make a retrace of the prior primary movement that is greater than 61.8%; normally 50% or 38.2% is the order of the day or 1:1 with the last alternate wave of prior similar degree.

3.
Because corrections are fast they do not give you time to sit on your hands and wait for confirmation. Don’t procrastinate!

4.
If the correction to the main trend is failing, it will do so by signalling a failure, i.e., a double top or slightly lower top in a bear trend or a double bottom or slightly higher low in a bull trend. It could penetrate the double top or bottom and fail also.

5.
The market will normally create a base below or above where the failure is to occur. Your last resort is to trade the break point. If you can identify it higher or lower then all the better.

6.
When you identify this situation you can act with a tight stop loss, they won’t all work but when they do they will be well worthwhile.

7.
If you miss a turning point or a breakout trade you can also get in on the move by waiting for a correction on the 5-minute chart."""

as always...good luck

Sunseeker :rolleyes:
 
SUNSEEKER said:
Nah, I dont think it will sell...

anything can be sold, as long as the presentation is sexy
hump.gif



I dont make any claims to make £1000 or more a month on penny bets, and you certainly have to work more than an hour to trade this way. You may get lucky from time to time, but I dont deal in luck. These days that combo doesnt sell well. I suppose most traders are looking for a Holy Grail.

those get rich beyond yuor wildest dream claims are not sexy. They're downright ridiculous. Those tards who write books and seminars that make ridiculous claims such as that, are doing so for the purposes of scamming the naive newbies out of their cash, and not to educate them. That isn't the case with yuo Tom and i think people will see that and buy yuor book. So get typing!!



I have said it before and I will say it again, as I know there are so many lurking but very few posting here: trading is not an easy profession. It takes a lot of dedication, persistence when things are not going your way, capital to survive the first 12-18 months, and above all self-confidence, the belief that you can succeed.

troof!

- Car Key Boi
 
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