Path For The US Week Of 23 June 2003

Dear Sunseeker,

As yr name suggests we already have something in common - I am personally devotedly attached to the frolics on the sun-lit beaches in places like Rio or Baja California... :) R u also a surfer? that'd b 2 pts in common! :)

Mate I am hearing loads of references to yr work in the Chat Room - and I am keenly interested - but honestly very sceptical. I worked as an OTC, and later on, as a prop trader at DrKW for 4 yrs and frankly never saw a model that cud predict hour-by-hour moves next day. If u developed one - I truly believe u deserve a Nobel Prize! :)

Cud u pls let me know (without disclosing too much detail which is of coz proprietary in yr work) what parameters u use and what is the spine-cord of your model? U can b technical, as I used to write Monte-Carlo simulation codes myself at UC Berkeley.

If u believe u shud keep it more private, pls feel free to contact me at [email protected]

Cheers mate
 
too right I surf....the charts and the waves......in the sea....

Chinawhite, I am playing around with this model, and as you can get others to testify, it sometime work like magic and other times like yesterday was upside down. That is what I cant fully grasp yet. It is a tide model. Have I said enough?

I am not keenn to disclose this, especially not on a public message board.

I dont mind sharing the result while I am making it better. keep an eye on it. I have used it for some months now, and am amazed how precise it is, when it is "hot". When it is cold, like yesterday, I can still use it, because I know what to look for. So even though I had the chart pointing down all day and we went UP all day, I could still use it to my advantage. Why?

Well, again, imagine you are standing on a beach, observing the water. If the tide is high, but the wind is offshore, ( you will get waves, dude!) it will not have a dangerous impact for flooding. However, if you have a full blown gale on shore and high tide. what do you get? The key is to substitute the parameteres with something tangible ( data ). I got an idea and used many hours....

That is why I am not so keen to tell exactly what.

Sun

PS: there are so many clues in this
 
I covered my shorts from the DAX trade earlier on... I left a fair bit on the table....

about 15 ticks from the low.....I should be long in this market as per chart, but I am not going to trade infront of the FOMC announcement...so calling it a day...

best wishes and remember the 3 spike rule once the announcement is made....
 
Sunseeker,

many thx for yr message. I am familiar with the tide modelling. I programmed grids myself - for a different application of coz. U take shorter scale derivatives (grid jumps or in this case price action over time) for wind, and larger scale derivatives (larger grids or price change over longer period of time) for tide. If u want 2 make it more precise tho, u'll need even bigger grids for the underlying hurricane..... :)

Mate where can I follow yr work? On this thread?

many thx
 
TOM,
On behalf of anyone and everyone who traded the 3rd wave after the fed, I THANK YOU. :LOL:

63 ticks from the YM in 7 minutes :cheesy:

Steve
 
THAT IS NOT FAIR....I FELL ASLEEP, AND WOKE UP 19:40...

HMMMM....

ANYWAY, GOOD WORK......I TAKE YOU TRADE DIRECT! VOLATILE BEAST THAT YMU3
 
Steve, it would have been great if you had written: yeah, i f##k### creamed that SB company

HA Ha, bet you didnt think you were gonna hear that one from me


:)
 
I bet City Index mysteriously went off line with a technical problem at about 7.15 though!
 
Perhaps it was just me that they used to do that to. Probably to save me from myself!
 
Tom,

I as using D4F until recently, but even then I was using YM charts. I`ve moved to YM as % wise it`s transaction costs are the cheapest. I also use ES and NQ as leading indicators. So if I traded ES that would lose me one edge.

steve
 
With regards tomorrows path, Marc Rivalland has just posted a continuation of trend at 9142.

His entry makes sense.
 
Again, nice tip Tom regarding the 3 wave fed move!!

I was under the impression that your user name was a reference to this, the Sunseeker XS2000 :cool:

Brings back Miami memories :D

Cheers a320.
 

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Marc, sorry for my ignorance: who is Marc Rivalland, and what trend is he talking about, short/medium or long-term trend?
 
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