Trading the E-mini

[DionysusToast]

For Bertie - FESX pre-market analysis for today.

9th May FESX

FESX has been one timeframing up on the daily for the past 5 days. Last 2 days we’ve been finding support around the prior days VAL.

Daily Numbers
Range – 2731 -> 2763
Value – 2741 -> 2758
Closed on the high

Also looking at the 7th – 2719 and 2748 as areas of interest, especially the latter as that is roughly where the highs were from Mid-March before we took the leg down. So we need to hold this and eyes will be on it.

Weekly Numbers
Range 2712 -> 2763
Value 2714 –> 2745

Obviously - we don't have the benefit of estimating where it'll open, so hard to take a shot at what it'll do off the open!

 

[robster970]

I am liking the swings on FESX. I am also liking how FESX honours S/R giving a strong clue in US RTH on where ES turns are likely to be, especially shortly after the open. Look at FESX and ES at about 14:40 yesterday as an example.

 

[counter_violent]

14:43 7th May. hours Brit time Shorted Euro/$ for 1.31139. Closed at 1.30869. I thought I mght have quoted CET but it is correct.

I wish I had done it today, but I ddn't so, perhaps, there was an element of luck involved. I was looking at something else.

Nice trade as it goes Split.

 

[cablemonster]

I am liking the swings on FESX. I am also liking how FESX honours S/R giving a strong clue in US RTH on where ES turns are likely to be, especially shortly after the open. Look at FESX and ES at about 14:40 yesterday as an example.

I wonder if there is any scope for 'follow the leader' type trades watching the ES and FESX.

 

[robster970]

I wonder if there is any scope for 'follow the leader' type trades watching the ES and FESX.

I'm going to give it a go

 

[Splitlink]

Target levels seem. to be more profitable.

Twice I have lost a possibilñity of profit gains on Dax, this morning. I opened long at 0724 hrs for 6833
1) A gain of 14 points and 2) A gain of 20 before getting stopped to where I had moved my stop at 6840, giving me a gain +7 at about 1000 hrs.

 

[rawrschach]

I'm flat on everything. Haven't daytraded again today cuz of other commitments.

 

[DionysusToast]

9th May



4 Consecutive up days. Lots of levels to play off above but I think 1616.75 is minor support with 1607.25 being the major line in the sand.

Looking at the weeks profile - we have a double distribution with the value being below this 1622->1631 level. I'd expect us to at least revisit 1622 today. We need to build value up in this top area if it's to hold.



Weekly Levels
This Weeks Range 1607.25 -> 1631
This Weeks Value 1608.75 -> 1622

Daily Levels
Yesterdays Range 1617 (globex) / 1618.50 -> 1629.50
Yesterdays Value 1623 -> 1627.50
Yesterdays Settl 1628.75
Overnight Range 1624.25 -> 1631

Overnight volume pretty light and most of it around settlement. Pretty neutral based on that.

 

[random12345]

I wonder if there is any scope for 'follow the leader' type trades watching the ES and FESX.

Almost an impossibly boring week this week - pissed away 4% on forex so far since Monday. Good laugh. Placed a big short on the full size SP contract today.. not much of a target, 1610. I rarely trade discretionary but the market is waiting for the first bit of bad data for a sell off from this point. The USD and index diversion is very interesting in times like this and usually quite telling. I think this will touch 1600 again within 7 days.

Then again maybe it won't.

 

[cablemonster]

after kissing and making up with DT I have turned to the dark side and signed up to his Jigsaw tools lol. Watching the US treasuries initially.

 

[robster970]

Almost an impossibly boring week this week - pissed away 4% on forex so far since Monday. Good laugh. Placed a big short on the full size SP contract today.. not much of a target, 1610. I rarely trade discretionary but the market is waiting for the first bit of bad data for a sell off from this point. The USD and index diversion is very interesting in times like this and usually quite telling. I think this will touch 1600 again within 7 days.

Then again maybe it won't.

Get in there my friend - I agree with your synopsis btw.

Short 29.25 - scorchio entry for me - confirmed with tag of 2760 on FESX

 

[robster970]

Scratched

 

[random12345]

after kissing and making up with DT I have turned to the dark side and signed up to his Jigsaw tools lol. Watching the US treasuries initially.

Let me know how it goes - I've been thinking of trying order flow trading to kill a few hours in the afternoon because I like the dynamic exits it offers. Honestly though I think I'd lose a few in a row and martingale away my weekly forex profits.

 

[DionysusToast]

I am turning into a freak - I'm starting to make more money out of the tight ranges than the big moves....

Managed to hit this range from above and below today. I'm still not pulling the trigger enough times @ the lows & highson the ES but I'm getting more comfortable with it.

This is a developing skill for me because I've tended to stay out of the chop but I had a prop trader walk me through how he does it and it's happening so often on the ES, I'm getting over my reticence to hit them.



Trade 1 - 1627.50 -> 1628.50, 1629.25
Trade 2 - 1629.50 -> 1628.50, 1627.75, 1627.50

 

[Splitlink]

Are you guys seeing what I think I might be seeing?

Is that a head and shoulders on Footsie 30 mins?

I've been short on the daily since 6590 and it is now 6575, where I consider to be good support. If that breaks, what?

 

[Splitlink]

Yes, well, it might have broken.

In an earlier post, today, I considered using targets. I had to go out this morning and made 11 points on the Yen/$. I should have done that with the short Footsie and would have made 15, this afternoon As it was, I closed for 4.

 

[cablemonster]

I am turning into a freak - I'm starting to make more money out of the tight ranges than the big moves....

Managed to hit this range from above and below today. I'm still not pulling the trigger enough times @ the lows & highson the ES but I'm getting more comfortable with it.

This is a developing skill for me because I've tended to stay out of the chop but I had a prop trader walk me through how he does it and it's happening so often on the ES, I'm getting over my reticence to hit them.



Trade 1 - 1627.50 -> 1628.50, 1629.25
Trade 2 - 1629.50 -> 1628.50, 1627.75, 1627.50

there is good money in ranges. plenty of instruments are stuck in small ranges outside of the market hours during the globex session. I reckon traders could just trade these for a living if you set your mind to it, the trouble is it's boring as hell. but hey if you want kicks it's probably best to go to the casino.

 

[random12345]

there is good money in ranges. plenty of instruments are stuck in small ranges outside of the market hours during the globex session. I reckon traders could just trade these for a living if you set your mind to it, the trouble is it's boring as hell. but hey if you want kicks it's probably best to go to the casino.

I miss the days where exploiting little observed quirks was a major money maker.... riding BOJ interventions at midnight... trading endless 3 point ranges on the EUR/GBP at the tail end of the US session...

Being 'sophisticated' with trading is actually pretty dull.

 

[cablemonster]

Let me know how it goes - I've been thinking of trying order flow trading to kill a few hours in the afternoon because I like the dynamic exits it offers. Honestly though I think I'd lose a few in a row and martingale away my weekly forex profits.

well so far I can see plenty of 'bait and switch' going on in the 10 year, plenty of fund and games.

 

[robster970]

I'll explain why I scratched - I was watching ES and FESX at the same time. I have tried to line them up timewise so you can see a little more clearly what my addled thinking was.

a. An exceedingly good entry at 29.25 - there was some good flow up here so went in with a limit order which eventually got filled - note how FESX was trading sideways whilst ES was testing yesterday's high and getting rejected.

b. The FESX catches up and they both start pushing at the high. This starts to make me think I may be on the wrong side here, especially as quite a few orders were coming through on ES, so I bailed to be safe.

c. FESX eventually rejects but there is little volume up here at 2670 - nobody in Europe wants to trade that high.

d. ES eventually gives up and they both roll-over for 12pts on FESX and 5 on ES.

This is what I am seeing, with alarming regularity right now (note, this may be just conditions on FESX at the moment, I don't have enough screen time on FESX to make a proper, long term evaluations) - that when FESX respects S/R, ES will turn with it at least for a little while until weight on ES then has an effect.

Seems like a nice little opportunity if you can get it right :whistling