So after a few days out of the saddle I've been dialing myself back in tonight on FESX and ES as well as having a very nice chat on skype with CV.
Some observations on ES:
a) Price is trading around the boundary of the key value area between 1530 and 1570 - this is where the bulk of trade facilitation has taken place. You can see this as the hump of volume is in this area.
b) What I can see was a test to 1534, sell orderflow drying and then buyers stepping in taking price to a new high of 1595 and the start of a new value area between 1570 and higher.
c) There was quite a bit of trade facilitation around 1582 but this area was rejected quite quickly. I feel like shorts got positioned up here in this area. Sell-off to value initiated.
d) Bounce of 1540, sellers came in at the high of current value area (1570 no surprise)
e) Bounce of 1540 again, sellers came in at 1552
f) Tests down to 1530 area again
I think that it will not materially move further down now. Note how there is no trade facilitation between 1530-1540 - it's still an LVN - value is not grinding down is it? It has put in a low at the boundary of the value area, maybe a little trickle down to 1529/1530, sellers all gone perhaps?
Then a push up past 1540, test of 1540 and then a run up again to 1570.
Trapped longs around 1572 and 1569 will then cover and the main sell-off will begin pushing down into a new value area below 1530 for some Q2 choppiness before we hit the summer doldrums and next installment.
Alternatively, I might be completely and utterly wrong
CV seemed to have a similar view, concluded for different but correlated reasons.
Therefore two of us may be wrong LOLOLOLOL
And FESX looks like it is putting in a bottom around 2490