Trading the E-mini

it was 3 years ago when i last traded it, but you run your trades longer than me so it shouldn't be as much as an issue for you.

I just remember thinking it was **** easy on sim then going live and never getting a fill. Is it FIFO? I don't remember...
 
rawrschach said:
it was 3 years ago when i last traded it, but you run your trades longer than me so it shouldn't be as much as an issue for you.

I just remember thinking it was **** easy on sim then going live and never getting a fill. Is it FIFO? I don't remember...
Click to expand...

It must be 10 years, at least, since I've used them. I used them because I was with a broker and traded them with Euros. Got a bigger bang for my buck! They were no different than trading with anything else, then. I still lost !🙂

Why the interest, now?
 
16th April

Finally back - kicked a worn out Ian out of the house this PM, so back to focus on trading properly again.

8:30 – Buildint Permits, Core CPU
9:15 – Industrial Production
9AM – ECB Pres Dragi Speaking
10AM - Treasury Sec Lew



We dropped back into the 1530-1570 range we’d been in for a month and now we are back into it. The brackets of that range may hold the market. We have regained some since yesterday’s drop. Some consideration must be given to yesterday’s drop being news driven though and we could well make a full recovery today.

Levels
Weekly pivot 1572.75, Weekly S1 1552.25
Last Weeks Value 1560.75 -> 1593

Yesterdays Value 1551.75 -> 1573.50 (generally speaking value areas have less merit on days like yesterday)
Yesterdays Range 1542.50 -> 1577/1582.50 (globex)
Yesterdays breakdown point – 1570, Settlement 1543.50
Overnight Range – 1538.75 -> 1559.75 (so far)

Overnight volume is 140k above average. On this sort of day it would be nice to see a sell off to a level below before it moves up. A shame we are set to open quite a way above the obvious levels.
 
2 Trades...



1 - 9:53 - market came back to low of forming range, got an iceberg on the bid with a lot of stacking on the offer, so joined the bid. Got 4 ticks and then scratched the rest.

2 - 10:23 - Pushed down through the daily low to 56.50, there was a step in the profile from the globex session @ 56.75. Took a few hits @ 56.50 with only 304 contracts hitting into the bid with the last attempt there being 90 I think. Anyway - joined it & got long 57 and scaled @ 58 & 59. Got out when news of some suspicious packages @ Boston came through the wires.

Decided to call it a day at that point. Too much news risk.
 
17th April

We took a bounce off the top of the range we were in last month....



Weekly pivot 1572.75, Weekly S1 1552.25, Weekly Pivot 1572.75
Last Weeks Value 1560.75 -> 1593

Yesterdays Range 1538.75 (Globex)/1554.50 (Pit) -> 1570.75
Yesterdays Value 1559.75 -> 1569.75
Globex Range 1555.25 -> 1570.00

First order of the day is that range - see if we hold or drop back down. Looks like we will open below yesterdays value , and near the pit session low, so will be looking for a long there off the open.
 
I am watching to see what happens when (if) we get to 1550.50 daily S1. Lets hope it hits an iceberg.
 
18th April



Overall - still thinking the 1530-1570 range is still potentially in effect. Past few days 38.25-38.75 has been a sticking point to the downside so plenty of eyes will be on that area.

Levels
This weeks value area (developing) 1542.50->1566.25
This weeks Range 1538 -> 1583
This weeks LVNs @ 1550, 1563

Yesterdays Range 1538 -> 1558.75 (pit)/1570 (Globex)
Yesterdays Value 1541.50 ->1549.75
Globex Range 1542 -> 1553.40

Overnight is slightly above the settlement @ 46. If we do have a move down, I'll be looking to see if we can get back into value from yesterday or reject it. Of course, watching the action @ all the levels too.
 
9:00 am and now we are at value. hoping we go to the ONH now and bounce down off that - we really are looking to open in the middle of prior action and so it might be a tough one.

Steps in the profile from overnight @ 48, 44.25.

The plan is, there is no plan.
 
It's quite ambiguous isn't it. It looks like it is distributing down but I'll be interested to see whether sellers disappear and we get a leg back up again. No planning for today so staying out.
 
LOL @ today... the highlight of my day was....

seeing it go to within 1 tick of the yesterdays VAH off the open, then move down to the weekly developing VAL. On the way down a LOT of contracts hit the bid @ 1547 and it got through. As it went down, I was chatting with some people about how 1547 would be an area they might defend on the way up.

Sure enough 9:44,we got to 1547.25 and I decided I would pass on this because it was 'too close to the news'.... 10am, 16 minutes later it's at 1541.... marvellous.

Anyway, I have had a veritable plethora of trades today, without a single one of them grabbing me 4 ticks. I had a couple hit 8 ticks where my usual T2 is but not a single one filled there. I totally missed the double bottom too.

I'm calling it a day. I still see -60k delta so I'm not convinced the downside is done. What I do see is a lot of people wanting to trade but with no idea which direction, so we are getting consolidations followed by a flurry of trades, then it dies and does the same thing again elsewhere.

Very interesting to watch.
 
So after a few days out of the saddle I've been dialing myself back in tonight on FESX and ES as well as having a very nice chat on skype with CV.

Some observations on ES:

a) Price is trading around the boundary of the key value area between 1530 and 1570 - this is where the bulk of trade facilitation has taken place. You can see this as the hump of volume is in this area.

b) What I can see was a test to 1534, sell orderflow drying and then buyers stepping in taking price to a new high of 1595 and the start of a new value area between 1570 and higher.

c) There was quite a bit of trade facilitation around 1582 but this area was rejected quite quickly. I feel like shorts got positioned up here in this area. Sell-off to value initiated.

d) Bounce of 1540, sellers came in at the high of current value area (1570 no surprise)

e) Bounce of 1540 again, sellers came in at 1552

f) Tests down to 1530 area again

I think that it will not materially move further down now. Note how there is no trade facilitation between 1530-1540 - it's still an LVN - value is not grinding down is it? It has put in a low at the boundary of the value area, maybe a little trickle down to 1529/1530, sellers all gone perhaps?

Then a push up past 1540, test of 1540 and then a run up again to 1570.

Trapped longs around 1572 and 1569 will then cover and the main sell-off will begin pushing down into a new value area below 1530 for some Q2 choppiness before we hit the summer doldrums and next installment.

Alternatively, I might be completely and utterly wrong 😆😛

CV seemed to have a similar view, concluded for different but correlated reasons.

Therefore two of us may be wrong LOLOLOLOL

And FESX looks like it is putting in a bottom around 2490
 

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Long @ 40

Trade scratched

Watched it tag the NVPOC

Wasn't sure whether it was going to turn so waited for a bit more of a sign

Then it just took off without me

That's ES for you............
 
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